question_text string | date_close string | event_date string | resolution_criteria string | question_type string | prediction_date string | correct_answer int64 | label_confidence float64 | resolution_date string | sample_id string | answer_type string | answer_parser_type string | reward_function_type string | prompt list | context list | reasoning_format_key string | parsed_answer string | tool_call_count int64 | reasoning string | all_messages string | rollout_id int64 | input_tokens int64 | output_tokens int64 | cost null | reward_score float64 | binary_brier_score float64 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Will former IAS officer K Dhanunjaya Reddy be arrested or taken into judicial custody in relation to the Andhra Pradesh liquor scam investigation between November 27, 2025, and February 15, 2026? | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if K Dhanunjaya Reddy is physically taken into custody (arrested or surrendered for incarceration) by law enforcement or judicial authorities in Andhra Pradesh or by central agencies (e.g., ED) during the specified window. This requires either the Supreme Court lifting his current protect... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-01-21T00:00:00 | c78331ff-4245-4e6a-8f14-164183fb66b4 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] HC orders liquor scam accused to surrender by Nov 26 (published on 2025-11-20 by thehansindia.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: The Andhra Pradesh High Court partially allowed the CID's petition against default bail granted by the ACB C... | strategy_choice | 0.78 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that former IAS officer K Dhanunjaya Reddy will be arrested or taken into judicial custody in relation to Andhra Pradesh liquor scam investigation between Nov 27 2025 and Feb 15 2026.
Current context: Nov 26, 2025 is today. The High Court ordered cancellati... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,508 | 980 | null | -1.514128 | 0.6084 |
Will the Indonesian Ministry of Trade officially designate Bantul Regency as a 'National Creative Economy Export Center' (Pusat Ekspor Ekonomi Kreatif Nasional) or grant it a similar official national award for export excellence before February 15, 2026? | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if a formal announcement is made by the Indonesian Ministry of Trade (Kementerian Perdagangan RI) or the Ministry of Tourism and Creative Economy (Kemenparekraf) between November 26, 2025, and February 15, 2026, granting Bantul Regency a specific national designation or award recognizing ... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | d8c8705c-6174-455b-8c97-6c0be0869974 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Pembukaan JMFW 2026, Menteri Perdagangan Perkuat Modest Fashion Indonesia (published on 2025-11-07 by chanelmuslim.com) (relevance: 2.0)\nSummary: Pembukaan Jakarta Muslim Fashion Week (JMFW) 2026, 6–9 November 2025 di Kartika Expo Ce... | strategy_choice | 0.15 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that Indonesian Ministry of Trade officially designates Bantul Regency as a National Creative Economy Export Center (or similar award) between Nov 26 2025 and Feb 15 2026.
We have limited context: only two news articles, none directly about Bantul. We have ... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 915 | 1,175 | null | -0.162519 | 0.0225 |
Will the Judicial Magistrate court in Ambur issue a formal order for the return of the recovered ₹20 lakh worth of car spare parts to the original manufacturer or the transport company by January 15, 2026? | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if there is a public report or official court record indicating that the Ambur Taluk police or the local magistrate has granted 'interim custody' or 'return of property' (under Section 451 of CrPC/Section 503 of BNSS) of the recovered spare parts to the private car making unit from Oragadam... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | 0 | 0.9 | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | db2a53ee-c319-4d46-82f9-cb98aaa9a442 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Ambur Judicial Magistrate recovered car spare parts ₹20 lakh return order January 2026; Ambur court judicial magistrate recovered spare parts return to manufacturer transport company; \"Ambur\" Judicial Magistrate car spare parts... | strategy_choice | 0.32 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to predict probability that Judicial Magistrate court in Ambur will issue a formal order for return of recovered ₹20 lakh worth of car spare parts to the original manufacturer or transport company by Jan 15 2026. We need to consider context. The question includes: "NEWS: Recent new... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 496 | 1,047 | null | -0.385662 | 0.1024 |
Will federal prosecutors file terrorism-related charges against the suspect in the November 27 shooting of the two West Virginia National Guardsmen by January 15, 2026? | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | This question resolves to Yes if a federal indictment or a criminal complaint filed by the United States Department of Justice (DOJ) includes at least one count under 18 U.S. Code Chapter 113B (Terrorism) or specifically charges the suspect with 'acts of terrorism transcending national boundaries' or 'providing materia... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 26191600-70a3-44f4-bb83-f9ccc218bfb2 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] 2 West Virginia National Guard troops critical after shooting near White House (published on 2025-11-26 by wjla.com) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: Two West Virginia National Guard troops were critically injured in a shooting near the Whi... | strategy_choice | 0.33 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to estimate probability that federal prosecutors will file terrorism-related charges against suspect (Rahmanullah Lakanwal) by Jan 15, 2026.
Context: Shooting occurred Nov 26/27 2025 (today date is Nov 27 2025). So about 1.5 months from incident to close date. Already several arti... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,248 | 1,536 | null | -0.400478 | 0.1089 |
Will Governor Tarcísio de Freitas appoint Aluísio Segurado as the next rector of the University of São Paulo (USP) by January 15, 2026? | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | This question resolves to 'Yes' if the Governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas, officially appoints Aluísio Cotrim Segurado to the position of Rector of the University of São Paulo (USP) on or before January 15, 2026. The appointment must be published in the Diário Oficial do Estado de São Paulo or announced via an ... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 1 | 1 | 2025-12-05T00:00:00 | 29eab176-7150-4ffb-8611-6a2a3e1331c2 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Tarcísio de Freitas appoint Aluísio Segurado rector USP; Aluísio Segurado next rector USP news; USP rector election process Aluísio Segurado list of candidates; Governor appoints USP rector January 2026 deadline; USP rector appoi... | strategy_choice | 0.15 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need estimate probability that Governor Tarcísio de Freitas will appoint Aluísio Segurado as next rector of USP by Jan 15 2026. Need to consider context. The context is empty except "NEWS: Recent news articles relevant to this question:" (none provided). So we have no specific info abou... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 508 | 1,190 | null | -1.89712 | 0.7225 |
Will the U.S. Department of Homeland Security or the White House formally announce a federal policy to re-vet or rescind the parole status of all Afghan nationals who entered under 'Operation Allies Welcome' before February 1, 2026? | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) or the White House issues an official memorandum, press release, or executive order explicitly stating that all Afghan nationals brought to the U.S. under 'Operation Allies Welcome' will be subject to a mandatory universal re-vetting process... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 1 | 0.9 | 2025-12-02T00:00:00 | 31f4243c-aff4-47b7-9211-1af95e99b82b | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] National Guard Members Shot Near White House (published on 2025-11-26 by nytimes.com) (relevance: 3.0)\nSummary: A 29-year-old Afghan man, Rahmanullah Lakanwal, accused of critically wounding two West Virginia National Guard members n... | strategy_choice | 0.42 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to estimate probability that DHS or White House will formally announce a federal policy to re-vet or rescind parole status of all Afghan nationals under OAW before Feb 1 2026.
We have context: recent incidents (shooting) leading to pause of processing of Afghan immigration applica... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,322 | 1,334 | null | -0.867501 | 0.3364 |
Will Andhra Pradesh Transmission Corporation (AP-Transco) create a dedicated 'Special Purpose Vehicle' (SPV) or a new task force specifically for the oversight of the 29 planned industrial substations by February 1, 2026? | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if there is an official announcement from the Andhra Pradesh Energy Department or AP-Transco regarding the formation of a specific administrative body, SPV, or task force aimed at removing 'bottlenecks' and accelerating the construction of these 29 substations as mentioned on November 27,... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 32cb9089-e9b9-4f8e-ad38-e687b8fbcfd0 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "AP-Transco SPV special purpose vehicle industrial substations 29; AP-Transco task force oversight 29 industrial substations; 29 planned industrial substations AP-Transco February 1 2026; Andhra Pradesh industrial substations proj... | strategy_choice | 0.3 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need probability that AP-Transco will create a dedicated SPV or new task force for oversight of 29 planned industrial substations by Feb 1, 2026. Need to consider context: "NEWS: Recent news articles relevant to this question:" but not provided. So we have no explicit mention. We need t... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 490 | 784 | null | -0.356675 | 0.09 |
Will the U.S. Department of Justice formally announce it is seeking the death penalty for Rahmanullah Lakanwal in a federal court filing by March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) files a 'Notice of Intent to Seek the Death Penalty' against Rahmanullah Lakanwal in federal court for the shooting of National Guard members described in the text. The filing must be publicly confirmed by March 1, 2026. | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 1 | 1 | 2026-02-05T00:00:00 | 332776a9-0eee-4c57-b7c2-04da9e7c836f | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Rahmanullah Lakanwal death penalty DOJ filing; Rahmanullah Lakanwal federal court filing seeking death penalty; DOJ deadline March 2026 seek death penalty federal case; Lakanwal indictment superseding indictment death penalty not... | strategy_choice | 0.12 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that DOJ will formally announce seeking death penalty for Rahmanullah Lakanwal in a federal court filing by March 1, 2026.
We need to analyze context: There's no provided news article context in prompt (empty). So we have no specifics about the case. Howeve... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 449 | 1,331 | null | -2.120264 | 0.7744 |
"Will the United States Department of Justice file a criminal complaint or indictment against Rahman(...TRUNCATED) | 2026-02-20T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | "The question resolves to Yes if a federal court filing (complaint, indictment, or information) agai(...TRUNCATED) | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-02-20T00:00:00 | 43dd93a4-ab56-434c-ad13-89ea4b81c6b3 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [{"content":"You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to e(...TRUNCATED) | [{"context_type":"NEWS_CONTEXT","rendered_context":"---\nARTICLES\n[1] 'We have lost our hope in Ame(...TRUNCATED) | strategy_choice | 0.48 | 0 | "<|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to estimate probability that DOJ files criminal complaint or (...TRUNCATED) | "[{\"content\": \"You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is(...TRUNCATED) | 0 | 1,440 | 1,647 | null | -0.653926 | 0.2304 |
"Will the Governor of São Paulo appoint a candidate other than the first-place finisher, Aluísio S(...TRUNCATED) | 2026-01-25T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | "This question resolves to 'Yes' if Governor Tarcísio de Freitas appoints either Ana Lúcia Duarte (...TRUNCATED) | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2025-12-05T00:00:00 | 5717f599-3442-4001-87a2-1d4906288d32 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [{"content":"You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to e(...TRUNCATED) | [{"context_type":"NEWS_CONTEXT","rendered_context":"---\nARTICLES\n[1] Primeiro ano na USP precisa s(...TRUNCATED) | strategy_choice | 0.3 | 0 | "<|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that Governor of São Paulo (Tarcísi(...TRUNCATED) | "[{\"content\": \"You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is(...TRUNCATED) | 0 | 729 | 946 | null | -0.356675 | 0.09 |
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