Daily Papers

We ask whether pretrained time series foundation models (TSFMs) improve on established econometric benchmarks for forecasting realized volatility. Using the VOLARE dataset, we conduct the first systematic comparison of nine zero-shot TSFMs against eight econometric specifications, including the Heterogeneous Autoregressive (HAR) family, across 50 assets in equities, foreign exchange, and futures, and three forecast horizons, with formal pairwise and multi-model forecast-comparison tests. Foundation models do not deliver a uniform gain. Pooled losses favor them, but the advantage is concentrated in a few outlier assets; averaging each asset's loss ratio to a well-specified Log-HAR benchmark, so that no single asset dominates, only one small model, Tiny Time Mixers (TTM), beats the benchmark at every horizon, and by a narrow margin. The other foundation models do not improve on Log-HAR, and the econometric benchmarks remain competitive throughout. A Mincer--Zarnowitz recalibration, which removes level and scale bias from every forecast, shows that much of the short-horizon advantage reflects better-scaled forecasts rather than better prediction of volatility dynamics, and only at the monthly horizon does a genuine informational gain remain. Because this edge is thin and even TTM is not best on every asset, a simple equal-weight average of TTM and Log-HAR matches the best single model and enters the Model Confidence Set for 98 to 100\% of assets, more often than either component alone, so a forecaster need not identify the best model for each asset in advance. Our most durable finding is that performance varies so much across foundation-model architectures that choosing the right architecture matters more than the broader choice between foundation and econometric models.

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) are revolutionizing the forecasting landscape from specific dataset modeling to generalizable task evaluation. However, we contend that existing benchmarks exhibit common limitations in four dimensions: constrained data composition dominated by reused legacy sources, compromised data integrity lacking rigorous quality assurance, misaligned task formulations detached from real-world contexts, and rigid analysis perspectives that obscure generalizable insights. To bridge these gaps, we introduce TIME, a next-generation task-centric benchmark comprising 50 fresh datasets and 98 forecasting tasks, tailored for strict zero-shot TSFM evaluation free from data leakage. Integrating large language models and human expertise, we establish a rigorous human-in-the-loop benchmark construction pipeline to ensure high data integrity and redefine task formulation by aligning forecasting configurations with real-world operational requirements and variate predictability. Furthermore, we propose a novel pattern-level evaluation perspective that moves beyond traditional dataset-level evaluations based on static meta labels. By leveraging structural time series features to characterize intrinsic temporal properties, this approach offers generalizable insights into model capabilities across diverse patterns. We evaluate 12 representative TSFMs and establish a multi-granular leaderboard to facilitate in-depth analysis and visualized inspection. The leaderboard is available at https://huggingface.co/spaces/Real-TSF/TIME-leaderboard.

We present t_0, a family of open-weights foundation models for forecasting with multivariate context. We release its first two members: t0-alpha and t0-beta, respectively 102M and 256M parameters. Both condition their forecasts on target history, past covariates, and known-future covariates, without task-specific retraining. Their transformer layers alternate attention along time and across variates. They produce probabilistic forecasts through quantile predictions. Pretraining combines curated public data with synthetic generator families constructed to contain covariate-to-target dependencies. On GIFT-Eval, t0-alpha reaches an aggregate CRPS of 0.4941, and t0-beta a CRPS of 0.4738 and a MASE of 0.6865, third on both and within 4.0% of the best zero-shot TSFM. On fev-bench they score 42.2 and 46.7 in skill, the latter third again and 2.0 points behind the leader. We analyze t0-alpha in depth. Known-future covariates raise its skill by 6.3 percentage points across 30 tasks. The report also examines its calibration, its rollout strategy on long horizons, and its robustness to missing data. On the Victoria electricity-demand benchmark, t0-beta is among the most accurate models with a context of nearly a year. In an independent Macrocosm evaluation of hourly ERCOT prices over 29 months, both cut the MAE of the lagged-price baseline by 38%.

Process Model Forecasting (PMF) aims to predict how the control-flow structure of a process evolves over time by modeling the temporal dynamics of directly-follows (DF) relations, complementing predictive process monitoring that focuses on single-case prefixes. Prior benchmarks show that machine learning and deep learning models provide only modest gains over statistical baselines, mainly due to the sparsity and heterogeneity of the DF time series. We investigate Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs), large pre-trained models for generic time series, as an alternative for PMF. Using DF time series derived from real-life event logs, we compare zero-shot use of TSFMs, without additional training, with fine-tuned variants adapted on PMF-specific data. TSFMs generally achieve lower forecasting errors (MAE and RMSE) than traditional and specialized models trained from scratch on the same logs, indicating effective transfer of temporal structure from non-process domains. While fine-tuning can further improve accuracy, the gains are often small and may disappear on smaller or more complex datasets, so zero-shot use remains a strong default. Our study highlights the generalization capability and data efficiency of TSFMs for process-related time series and, to the best of our knowledge, provides the first systematic evaluation of temporal foundation models for PMF.

Recent research on time-series foundation models (TSFMs) has underscored the scarcity of real-world data, often supplemented with synthetic sources in existing datasets, whose generalizability remains however debated. As such, in this work, we propose a novel benchmarking approach: in particular, we aim at building a curated dataset reflecting real world physical temporal dynamics, extracting temporal signals from real-world videos using optical flow. As such, we introduce REAL-V-TSFM, a novel dataset designed to capture rich and diverse time series derived from real-world videos. Experimental results on state-of-the-art TSFMs under zero-shot forecasting show that, despite strong performance on conventional benchmarks, these models exhibit performance degradation on the proposed dataset, suggesting limited generalizability to novel datasets. These findings underscore the need for novel approaches to acquiring time series data and highlight the lack of universality in recent TSFMs, while further validating the effectiveness of our video-based time series data extraction pipeline.

The zero-shot evaluation of time series foundation models (TSFMs) for classification typically uses a frozen encoder followed by a task-specific classifier. However, this practice violates the training-free premise of zero-shot deployment and introduces evaluation bias due to classifier-dependent training choices. To address this issue, we propose TIC-FM, an in-context learning framework that treats the labeled training set as context and predicts labels for all test instances in a single forward pass, without parameter updates. TIC-FM pairs a time series encoder and a lightweight projection adapter with a split-masked latent memory Transformer. We further provide theoretical justification that in-context inference can subsume trained classifiers and can emulate gradient-based classifier training within a single forward pass. Experiments on 128 UCR datasets show strong accuracy, with consistent gains in the extreme low-label situation, highlighting training-free transfer for time series classification.The source code is publicly available at https://github.com/fangjuntao/TIC-FM.

Time series forecasting plays a crucial role in data mining, driving rapid advancements across numerous industries. With the emergence of large models, time series foundation models (TSFMs) have exhibited remarkable generalization capabilities, such as zero-shot learning, through large-scale pre-training. Meanwhile, Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) methods have been widely employed to enhance the performance of foundation models on unseen data, allowing models to access to external knowledge. In this paper, we introduce TimeRAF, a Retrieval-Augmented Forecasting model that enhance zero-shot time series forecasting through retrieval-augmented techniques. We develop customized time series knowledge bases that are tailored to the specific forecasting tasks. TimeRAF employs an end-to-end learnable retriever to extract valuable information from the knowledge base. Additionally, we propose Channel Prompting for knowledge integration, which effectively extracts relevant information from the retrieved knowledge along the channel dimension. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our model, showing significant improvement across various domains and datasets.

Pretrained time series foundation models (TSFMs) have enabled zero-shot forecasting on unseen target series. However, existing TSFMs often incur high computational cost and provide limited support for diverse variable types, often failing to account for covariates that exogenously influence target variability. To address these challenges, we propose CITRAS-FM, a tiny 7M-parameter TSFM that supports univariate, multivariate, and covariate-informed zero-shot forecasting with real-time CPU inference. Built on a patch-based, decoder-only Transformer, CITRAS-FM introduces Shifted Attention into the cross-variate module to effectively exploit known covariates accessible throughout the forecast horizon. Moreover, to enable covariate-aware pretraining despite the scarcity of covariate-rich corpora, we propose CovSynth, which synthesizes realistic covariates from decomposed components of target series. Experiments on fev-bench, spanning 100 tasks across various settings, demonstrate that CITRAS-FM achieves state-of-the-art zero-shot accuracy among sub-10M TSFMs while delivering sub-0.1-second CPU inference, offering a strong balance between forecasting accuracy and real-time deployability.

Large Language Models (LLMs) and Foundation Models (FMs) have recently become prevalent for time series forecasting tasks. While fine-tuning LLMs enables domain adaptation, they often struggle to generalize across diverse and unseen datasets. Moreover, existing Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) still face challenges in handling non-stationary dynamics and distribution shifts, largely due to the lack of effective mechanisms for adaptation. To this end, we present TS-RAG, a retrieval-augmented generation framework for time series forecasting that enhances the generalization and interpretability of TSFMs. Specifically, TS-RAG leverages pre-trained time series encoders to retrieve semantically relevant segments from a dedicated knowledge base, enriching the contextual representation of the input query. Furthermore, we propose an Adaptive Retrieval Mixer (ARM) module that dynamically fuses the retrieved patterns with the TSFM's internal representation, improving forecasting accuracy without requiring task-specific fine-tuning. Thorough empirical studies on seven public benchmark datasets demonstrate that TS-RAG achieves state-of-the-art zero-shot forecasting performance, outperforming the existing TSFMs by up to 6.84% across diverse domains while also providing desirable interpretability. Our code and data are available at: https://github.com/UConn-DSIS/TS-RAG

This technical report presents EXAONE Forecast for Finance (EXAONE Finance), a financial time series (TS) foundation model (TSFM) tailored to financial forecasting. Recent TSFMs achieve strong zero-shot performance through large-scale pretraining. However, they are primarily developed for general-domain TS and largely rely on self-attention backbones whose computational cost grows quadratically with sequence length and variate count. Moreover, they assume fully observed inputs and are pretrained on corpora that fail to capture the unique dynamics of financial markets. These limitations hinder their applicability to finance, where long, many-channel, intermittently observed panels are common. To address these challenges, EXAONE Finance adopts an attention-free architecture, replacing self-attention with two simple yet effective linear-time operators: 1) a causal 1D convolution for temporal mixing and 2) a group-aware pooling multi-layer perceptron (MLP) for variate mixing. Furthermore, a masked context augmentation exposes the model to contiguous missing spans during training, improving robustness to the missingness pervasive in financial markets. EXAONE Finance is pretrained on a large-scale financial corpus covering not only equities but also foreign exchange, commodities, crypto-assets, fixed income, and macroeconomic indicators. On FinVerse, a financial forecasting benchmark covering diverse asset classes, EXAONE Finance attains state-of-the-art performance, ranking first across all three evaluation tiers---point-forecast accuracy, cross-sectional asset ranking, and portfolio profitability.

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) are increasingly being adopted as highly-capable general-purpose time series representation learners. Although their training corpora are vast, they exclude astronomical time series data. Observations of stars produce peta-scale time series with unique challenges including irregular sampling and heteroskedasticity. We introduce StarEmbed, the first public benchmark for rigorous and standardized evaluation of state-of-the-art TSFMs on stellar time series observations (``light curves''). We benchmark on three scientifically-motivated downstream tasks: unsupervised clustering, supervised classification, and out-of-distribution source detection. StarEmbed integrates a catalog of expert-vetted labels with multi-variate light curves from the Zwicky Transient Facility, yielding ~40k hand-labeled light curves spread across seven astrophysical classes. We evaluate the zero-shot representation capabilities of three TSFMs (MOIRAI, Chronos, Chronos-Bolt) and a domain-specific transformer (Astromer) against handcrafted feature extraction, the long-standing baseline in the astrophysics literature. Our results demonstrate that these TSFMs, especially the Chronos models, which are trained on data completely unlike the astronomical observations, can outperform established astrophysics-specific baselines in some tasks and effectively generalize to entirely new data. In particular, TSFMs deliver state-of-the-art performance on our out-of-distribution source detection benchmark. With the first benchmark of TSFMs on astronomical time series data, we test the limits of their generalization and motivate a paradigm shift in time-domain astronomy from using task-specific, fully supervised pipelines toward adopting generic foundation model representations for the analysis of peta-scale datasets from forthcoming observatories.

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) offer strong zero-shot forecasting via large-scale pre-training, yet fine-tuning remains critical for boosting performance in domains with limited public data. With the growing number of TSFMs, efficiently identifying the best model for downstream fine-tuning becomes increasingly challenging. In this work, we introduce TimeTic, a transferability estimation framework that recasts model selection as an in-context-learning problem: given observations on known (source) datasets, it predicts how a TSFM will perform after fine-tuning on a downstream (target) dataset. TimeTic flexibly organizes the observed model-data relationships as contextual information, allowing it to adapt seamlessly to various test-time scenarios. Leveraging the natural tabular structure formed by dataset meta-features, model characteristics, and fine-tuned performance, we employ tabular foundation models to serve as in-context learners. We further introduce a novel model characterization based on entropy evolution across model layers, capturing embedding-space distinctions and enabling TimeTic to generalize across arbitrary model sets. We establish a comprehensive benchmark for transferability estimation including 10 datasets, 10 foundation models, and 3 forecasting tasks. On this benchmark, TimeTic's estimation demonstrates strong alignment with actual fine-tuned performance for previously unseen datasets, achieving a mean rank correlation of approximately 0.6 and a 30% improvement compared to using zero-shot performance as the transferability score.

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) have shown strong zero-shot forecasting performance, but their generalization in covariate-driven, non-stationary settings is underexplored. Electricity price forecasting (EPF) presents a challenging testbed due to complex temporal dependencies, distributional shifts, and strong reliance on structural and contextual information. We propose a two-dataset-benchmarking framework for EPF to mitigate contamination risk and enable fair evaluation of TSFMs. We examine key aspects of EPF including point and probabilistic forecasting performance, tail behavior, price spikes, and comparisons against domain-specific methods. We find that TSFMs are highly competitive and often outperform general-purpose baselines. Yet, their performance depends critically on covariate support, and they do not consistently surpass domain-specific methods tailored to EPF. Interestingly, simple ensembles of TSFMs and domain-specific methods appear to have significant potential, suggesting that the two approaches capture complementary predictive information.

Large pre-trained time series foundation models (TSFMs) have demonstrated promising zero-shot performance across a wide range of domains. However, a question remains: Do TSFMs succeed solely by memorizing training patterns, or do they possess the ability to reason? While reasoning is a topic of great interest in the study of Large Language Models (LLMs), it is undefined and largely unexplored in the context of TSFMs. In this work, inspired by language modeling literature, we formally define compositional reasoning in forecasting and distinguish it from in-distribution generalization. We evaluate the reasoning and generalization capabilities of 23 popular deep learning forecasting models on multiple synthetic and real-world datasets. Additionally, through controlled studies, we systematically examine which design choices in TSFMs contribute to improved reasoning abilities. Our study yields key insights into the impact of TSFM architecture design on compositional reasoning and generalization. We find that patch-based Transformers have the best reasoning performance, closely followed by residualized MLP-based architectures, which are 97\% less computationally complex in terms of FLOPs and 86\% smaller in terms of the number of trainable parameters. Interestingly, in some zero-shot out-of-distribution scenarios, these models can outperform moving average and exponential smoothing statistical baselines trained on in-distribution data. Only a few design choices, such as the tokenization method, had a significant (negative) impact on Transformer model performance.

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) have recently gained significant attention due to their strong zero-shot capabilities and widespread real-world applications. Such models typically require a computationally costly pretraining on large-scale, carefully curated collections of real-world sequences. To allow for a sample-efficient pretraining of TSFMs, we propose CauKer, a novel algorithm designed to generate diverse, causally coherent synthetic time series with realistic trends, seasonality, and nonlinear interactions. CauKer combines Gaussian Process (GP) kernel composition with Structural Causal Models (SCM) to produce data for sample-efficient pretraining of state-of-the-art classification TSFMs having different architectures and following different pretraining approaches. Additionally, our experiments reveal that CauKer-generated datasets exhibit clear scaling laws for both dataset size (10K to 10M samples) and model capacity (1M to 783M parameters), unlike real-world datasets, which display irregular scaling behavior.

Financial time series forecasting is central to trading, portfolio optimization, and risk management, yet it remains challenging due to noisy, non-stationary, and heterogeneous data. Recent advances in time series foundation models (TSFMs), inspired by large language models, offer a new paradigm for learning generalizable temporal representations from large and diverse datasets. This paper presents the first comprehensive empirical study of TSFMs in global financial markets. Using a large-scale dataset of daily excess returns across diverse markets, we evaluate zero-shot inference, fine-tuning, and pre-training from scratch against strong benchmark models. We find that off-the-shelf pre-trained TSFMs perform poorly in zero-shot and fine-tuning settings, whereas models pre-trained from scratch on financial data achieve substantial forecasting and economic improvements, underscoring the value of domain-specific adaptation. Increasing the dataset size, incorporating synthetic data augmentation, and applying hyperparameter tuning further enhance performance.

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) represent a new paradigm for time-series forecasting, promising zero-shot predictions without the need for task-specific training or fine-tuning. However, similar to Large Language Models (LLMs), the evaluation of TSFMs is challenging: as training corpora grow increasingly large, it becomes difficult to ensure the integrity of the test sets used for benchmarking. An investigation of existing TSFM evaluation studies identifies two kinds of information leakage: (1) train-test sample overlaps arising from the multi-purpose reuse of datasets and (2) temporal overlap of correlated train and test series. Ignoring these forms of information leakage when benchmarking TSFMs risks producing overly optimistic performance estimates that fail to generalize to real-world settings. We therefore argue for the development of novel evaluation methodologies that avoid pitfalls already observed in both LLM and classical time-series benchmarking, and we call on the research community to adopt principled approaches to safeguard the integrity of TSFM evaluation.

Recent time series foundation models (TSFMs) can consume covariates in-context, extending zero-shot forecasting to problems driven by external factors. This enables scenario analysis: forecasting how a target responds to events that set covariates to chosen future values. Whether they can do this reliably is an open question. We introduce WhatIf-Bench, a benchmark measuring how well forecasters use covariates to forecast a target's response to future events. WhatIf-Bench is semi-synthetic: time series come from mechanistic simulators of data centers, power grids, road traffic, and water networks, with controlled covariate-target relationships grounded in each system. Each task presents a history of events intervening on covariates, then asks to forecast a future event that either replays seen values (Replay) or sets them to unseen ones (Novel). Varying the number of covariates, historical events, and event length yields 37,665 tasks. Evaluating TSFMs, frontier LLMs, and simple regression baselines, we find the LLMs reach the highest skill (improvement over a naive baseline), ahead of the best TSFMs. Every model forecasts well on Replay futures (48 to 85% skill) but drops to -7 to 50% on Novel futures, with the regression baselines falling the most. Skill on Novel futures also falls as events set more covariates jointly. More historical events raise skill on Novel futures across the board, but large differences remain. WhatIf-Bench reveals generalization to Novel futures as the core challenge, and offers a testbed toward arbitrary scenario analysis.

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) have shown significant impact through their model capacity, scalability, and zero-shot generalization. However, due to the heterogeneity of inter-variate dependencies and the backbone scalability on large-scale multivariate datasets, most TSFMs are typically pre-trained on univariate time series. This limitation renders them oblivious to crucial information from diverse covariates in real-world forecasting tasks. To further enhance the performance of TSFMs, we propose a general covariate-aware adaptation (CoRA) framework for TSFMs. It leverages pre-trained backbones of foundation models while effectively incorporating exogenous covariates from various modalities, including time series, language, and images, to improve the quality of predictions. Technically, CoRA maintains the equivalence of initialization and parameter consistency during adaptation. With preserved backbones of foundation models as frozen feature extractors, the outcome embeddings from foundation models are empirically demonstrated more informative than raw data. Further, CoRA employs a novel Granger Causality Embedding (GCE) to automatically evaluate covariates regarding their causal predictability with respect to the target variate. We incorporate these weighted embeddings with a zero-initialized condition-injection mechanism, avoiding catastrophic forgetting of pre-trained foundation models and gradually integrates exogenous information. Extensive experiments show that CoRA of TSFMs surpasses state-of-the-art covariate-aware deep forecasters with full or few-shot training samples, achieving 31.1% MSE reduction on covariate-aware forecasting. Compared to other adaptation methods, CoRA exhibits strong compatibility with various advanced TSFMs and extends the scope of covariates to other modalities, presenting a practical paradigm for the application of TSFMs.

Time-Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) are rapidly transitioning from research prototypes to core components of critical decision-making systems, driven by their impressive zero-shot forecasting capabilities. However, as their deployment surges, a critical blind spot remains: their fragility under adversarial attacks. This lack of scrutiny poses severe risks, particularly as TSFMs enter high-stakes environments vulnerable to manipulation. We present a systematic, diagnostic study arguing that for TSFMs, robustness is not merely a secondary metric but a prerequisite for trustworthy deployment comparable to accuracy. Our evaluation framework, explicitly tailored to the unique constraints of time series, incorporates normalized, sparsity-aware perturbation budgets and unified scale-invariant metrics across white-box and black-box settings. Across six representative TSFMs, we demonstrate that current architectures are alarmingly brittle: even small perturbations can reliably steer forecasts toward specific failure modes, such as trend flips and malicious drifts. We uncover TSFM-specific vulnerability patterns, including horizon-proximal brittleness, increased susceptibility with longer context windows, and weak cross-model transfer that points to model-specific failure modes rather than generic distortions. Finally, we show that simple adversarial fine-tuning offers a cost-effective path to substantial robustness gains, even with out-of-domain data. This work bridges the gap between TSFM capabilities and safety constraints, offering essential guidance for hardening the next generation of forecasting systems.

Scaling laws motivate the development of Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) that pre-train vast parameters and achieve remarkable zero-shot forecasting performance. Surprisingly, even after fine-tuning, TSFMs cannot consistently outperform smaller, specialized models trained on full-shot downstream data. A key question is how to realize effective adaptation of TSFMs for a target forecasting task. Through empirical studies on various TSFMs, the pre-trained models often exhibit inherent sparsity and redundancy in computation, suggesting that TSFMs have learned to activate task-relevant network substructures to accommodate diverse forecasting tasks. To preserve this valuable prior knowledge, we propose a structured pruning method to regularize the subsequent fine-tuning process by focusing it on a more relevant and compact parameter space. Extensive experiments on seven TSFMs and six benchmarks demonstrate that fine-tuning a smaller, pruned TSFM significantly improves forecasting performance compared to fine-tuning original models. This prune-then-finetune paradigm often enables TSFMs to achieve state-of-the-art performance and surpass strong specialized baselines. Source code is made publicly available at https://github.com/SJTU-DMTai/Prune-then-Finetune.

Recent years have witnessed the emergence of multivariate modeling using time series foundation models (TSFMs), which achieve advanced zero-shot generalization. Modern multivariate TSFMs are predominantly pretrained on multivariate synthetic data, which is easier to scale but may fail to capture the complex temporal dynamics and cross-variable relationships present in real-world time series. This raises a key question: Whether and to what extent the leading TSFMs trained with the real-world corpus perform better than those trained with synthetic data? To answer this, we establish the RMISC corpus, a considerably large-scale, high-quality, openly accessible, real-world, and multivariate time series archive that contains around 200 datasets and 142 billion time points across diverse domains. Furthermore, we pretrain four advanced TSFMs on univariate, synthetic multivariate, and real-world multivariate data and evaluate their zero-shot generalization capabilities on standard in-distribution and out-of-distribution benchmarks. Experimental results show that incorporating real-world multivariate data predominantly improves the generalization performance for both univariate and multivariate TSFMs. These results provide a deeper understanding of how real-world multivariate data contributes to the development of stronger TSFMs.

Large pre-trained models for zero/few-shot learning excel in language and vision domains but encounter challenges in multivariate time series (TS) due to the diverse nature and scarcity of publicly available pre-training data. Consequently, there has been a recent surge in utilizing pre-trained large language models (LLMs) with token adaptations for TS forecasting. These approaches employ cross-domain transfer learning and surprisingly yield impressive results. However, these models are typically very slow and large (~billion parameters) and do not consider cross-channel correlations. To address this, we present Tiny Time Mixers (TTM), a significantly small model based on the lightweight TSMixer architecture. TTM marks the first success in developing fast and tiny general pre-trained models (<1M parameters), exclusively trained on public TS datasets, with effective transfer learning capabilities for forecasting. To tackle the complexity of pre-training on multiple datasets with varied temporal resolutions, we introduce several novel enhancements such as adaptive patching, dataset augmentation via downsampling, and resolution prefix tuning. Moreover, we employ a multi-level modeling strategy to effectively model channel correlations and infuse exogenous signals during fine-tuning, a crucial capability lacking in existing benchmarks. TTM shows significant accuracy gains (12-38\%) over popular benchmarks in few/zero-shot forecasting. It also drastically reduces the compute needs as compared to LLM-TS methods, with a 14X cut in learnable parameters, 106X less total parameters, and substantial reductions in fine-tuning (65X) and inference time (54X). In fact, TTM's zero-shot often surpasses the few-shot results in many popular benchmarks, highlighting the efficacy of our approach. Code and pre-trained models will be open-sourced.

Tabular machine learning typically relies on per-dataset workflows, fitting tree ensembles or running AutoML searches from scratch for every task. We present TabFM, a 400M-parameter tabular foundation model that formulates supervised tabular prediction as in-context learning. TabFM produces calibrated zero-shot predictions in a single forward pass without task-specific tuning. Trained entirely on synthetic tables generated from structural causal models, TabFM learns general tabular representations that transfer zero-shot to real-world tasks. Across all 51 benchmark datasets in TabArena (38 classification and 13 regression), zero-shot TabFM ranks first among default tabular foundation models and outperforms tuned AutoML pipelines. Two extensions over the same frozen weights improve performance further on both tracks: multi-view feature expansion with ensembling and post-hoc calibration (TabFM+), and LLM-guided, dataset-specific data processing and feature engineering (TabFM-Auto).

Vision Foundation Models (VFMs) extract spatially downsampled representations, posing challenges for pixel-level tasks. Existing upsampling approaches face a fundamental trade-off: classical filters are fast and broadly applicable but rely on fixed forms, while modern upsamplers achieve superior accuracy through learnable, VFM-specific forms at the cost of retraining for each VFM. We introduce Neighborhood Attention Filtering (NAF), which bridges this gap by learning adaptive spatial-and-content weights through Cross-Scale Neighborhood Attention and Rotary Position Embeddings (RoPE), guided solely by the high-resolution input image. NAF operates zero-shot: it upsamples features from any VFM without retraining, making it the first VFM-agnostic architecture to outperform VFM-specific upsamplers and achieve state-of-the-art performance across multiple downstream tasks. It maintains high efficiency, scaling to 2K feature maps and reconstructing intermediate-resolution maps at 18 FPS. Beyond feature upsampling, NAF demonstrates strong performance on image restoration, highlighting its versatility. Code and checkpoints are available at https://github.com/valeoai/NAF.

Open time-series forecasting (TSF) benchmarks cover retail, energy, weather, and traffic, but supply-chain logistics remains underserved. We introduce ISOMORPH, the first public digital twin of a multi-echelon logistics network with fully interpretable, user-configurable parameters and modular topology, demand process, and control rules. The simulator advances a directed routing graph in discrete time: demand arrives at the destination, is served from stock or recorded as backlog, and triggers replenishment through the network. The state vector tracks per-node on-hand inventory with outstanding orders, in-transit shipments, and a smoothed demand estimate, so the dynamics close as a Markov chain on a tractable state space whose transition kernel acts linearly on the empirical distribution of the state. The released data reproduces the bullwhip effect at empirically consistent magnitudes, and three conservation laws encoded in the Markov chain serve as verification tools when users extend the simulator. We release datasets at two catalogue scales (C=50 and C=200) with six scenario sweeps producing 30 additional rollouts and 20 Latin-hypercube perturbations, exhibiting dynamics absent from fixed TSF benchmarks: variance amplification, cascading bottlenecks, regime shifts, and cross-channel coupling through shared macro shocks. Zero-shot evaluation of four foundation models (Chronos, Moirai, TimesFM, Lag-Llama) shows MASE values exceeding public GIFT-Eval references at low-to-moderate horizons, supporting incorporation into existing benchmarks. The same pairing produces forecast confidence bands via Latin-hypercube perturbation of demand-side knobs, forward UQ from parameter uncertainty unavailable on standard TSF datasets, demonstrating that foundation models can serve as fast surrogates for the digital twin's forward UQ. Code (MIT): https://github.com/tuhinsahai/ISOMORPH.

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) have emerged as a powerful paradigm for time series analysis, driven by large-scale pretraining on diverse data corpora. However, time series inherently exhibit heterogeneous information density over time, influenced by system states and signal complexity, presenting significant modeling challenges especially in a zero-shot scenario. Current TSFMs rely on non-adaptive processing pipelines that fail to capture this dynamic nature. For example, common tokenization strategies such as fixed-size patching enforce rigid observational granularity, limiting their ability to adapt to varying information densities. Similarly, conventional positional encodings impose a uniform temporal scale, making it difficult to model diverse periodicities and trends across series. To overcome these limitations, we propose Kairos, a flexible TSFM framework that integrates a dynamic patching tokenizer and an instance-adaptive positional embedding. Kairos adaptively selects tokenization granularity and tailors positional encodings to the unique characteristics of each time series instance. Trained on a large-scale Predictability-Stratified Time Series (PreSTS) corpus comprising over 300 billion time points and adopting a multi-patch prediction strategy in the inference stage, Kairos achieves superior performance with much fewer parameters on two common zero-shot benchmarks, GIFT-Eval and the Time-Series-Library benchmark, consistently outperforming established methods across diverse tasks. The project page is at https://foundation-model-research.github.io/Kairos .

Metric-induced discrete flow matching (MI-DFM) exploits token-latent geometry for discrete generation, but its practical use is limited by two issues: heuristic schedulers requiring hyperparameter search, and finite-step path-tracking error from its first-order continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) solver. We address both issues. First, we derive a kinetic-optimal scheduler for prescribed scalar-parameterized probability paths, and instantiate it for MI-DFM as a training-free numerical schedule that traverses the path at constant Fisher-Rao speed. Second, we introduce a finite-step moment correction that adjusts the jump probability while preserving the CTMC jump destination distribution. We validate the resulting method, GibbsTTS, on codec-based zero-shot text-to-speech (TTS). Under controlled comparisons with a unified architecture and large-scale dataset, GibbsTTS achieves the best objective naturalness and is preferred in subjective evaluations over masked discrete generative baselines. Additionally, in comparison with the evaluated state-of-the-art TTS systems, GibbsTTS shows strong speaker similarity, achieving the highest similarity on three of four test sets and ranking second on the fourth. Project page: https://ydqmkkx.github.io/GibbsTTSProject

Discrete flow matching generates text by iteratively transforming noise tokens into coherent language, but may require hundreds of forward passes. Distillation uses the multi-step trajectory to train a student to reproduce the process in a few steps. When the student underperforms, the usual explanation is insufficient capacity. We argue the opposite: the trajectory is the bottleneck, not the student. Each training trajectory is built through a chain of blind stochastic jumps with no evaluation of sequence quality; a single bad decision at an early midpoint propagates through subsequent steps, yet the student must imitate the result. Trajectory-Shaped Discrete Flow Matching (TS-DFM) replaces these blind jumps with guided navigation: a lightweight energy compass evaluates candidate continuations at each midpoint, selecting the most coherent. All shaping is training-only; inference cost is unchanged. On 170M-parameter language modeling, the shaped student at 8 steps achieves 32% lower perplexity than the 1,024-step teacher while being 128x faster, with gains consistent across source distributions and three evaluators of increasing scale. TS-DFM achieves the best perplexity of any discrete-generation baseline we compare against, including methods trained on 6x more data or using 5x larger models.

Text and vision foundation models can perform many tasks in a zero-shot setting, a desirable property that enables these systems to be applied in general and low-resource settings. There has been far less work, however, on the zero-shot abilities of ASR foundation models, with these systems typically fine-tuned to specific tasks or constrained to applications that match their training criterion and data annotation. In this work we investigate the ability of Whisper and MMS, ASR foundation models trained primarily for speech recognition, to perform zero-shot audio classification. We use simple template-based text prompts at the decoder and use the resulting decoding probabilities to generate zero-shot predictions. Without training the model on extra data or adding any new parameters, we demonstrate that Whisper shows promising zero-shot classification performance on a range of 8 audio-classification datasets, outperforming the accuracy of existing state-of-the-art zero-shot baselines by an average of 9%. One important step to unlock the emergent ability is debiasing, where a simple unsupervised reweighting method of the class probabilities yields consistent significant performance gains. We further show that performance increases with model size, implying that as ASR foundation models scale up, they may exhibit improved zero-shot performance.

Zero-shot translation aims to translate between language pairs not seen during training in Multilingual Machine Translation (MMT) and is largely considered an open problem. A common, albeit resource-consuming, solution is to add as many related translation directions as possible to the training corpus. In this paper, we show that for an English-centric model, surprisingly large zero-shot improvements can be achieved by simply fine-tuning with a very small amount of multi-parallel data. For example, on the EC30 dataset, we obtain up to +21.7 ChrF non-English overall improvements (870 directions) by using only 100 multi-parallel samples while preserving English-centric translation quality. When investigating the size effect of fine-tuning data and its transfer capabilities, we found that already a small, randomly sampled set of fine-tuning directions is sufficient to achieve comparable improvements. The resulting non-English performance is close to the complete translation upper bound. Even in a minimal setting -- fine-tuning with only one single sample -- the well-known off-target issue is almost completely resolved, explaining parts -- but not all -- of the observed improvements in translation quality.

Foundation models for zero-shot time series forecasting face challenges in efficient long-horizon prediction and reproducibility, with existing synthetic-only approaches underperforming on challenging benchmarks. This paper presents TempoPFN, a univariate time series foundation model based on linear Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) pre-trained exclusively on synthetic data. The model uses a GatedDeltaProduct architecture with state-weaving for fully parallelizable training across sequence lengths, eliminating the need for windowing or summarization techniques while maintaining robust temporal state-tracking. Our comprehensive synthetic data pipeline unifies diverse generators, including stochastic differential equations, Gaussian processes, and audio synthesis, with novel augmentations. In zero-shot evaluations on the Gift-Eval benchmark, TempoPFN achieves top-tier competitive performance, outperforming all existing synthetic-only approaches and surpassing the vast majority of models trained on real-world data, while being more efficient than existing baselines by leveraging fully parallelizable training and inference. We open-source our complete data generation pipeline and training code, providing a reproducible foundation for future research.

One fascinating aspect of pre-trained vision-language models~(VLMs) learning under language supervision is their impressive zero-shot generalization capability. However, this ability is hindered by distribution shifts between the training and testing data. Previous test time adaptation~(TTA) methods for VLMs in zero-shot classification rely on minimizing the entropy of model outputs, tending to be stuck in incorrect model predictions. In this work, we propose TTA with feedback to rectify the model output and prevent the model from becoming blindly confident. Specifically, a CLIP model is adopted as the reward model during TTA and provides feedback for the VLM. Given a single test sample, the VLM is forced to maximize the CLIP reward between the input and sampled results from the VLM output distribution. The proposed reinforcement learning with CLIP feedback~(RLCF) framework is highly flexible and universal. Beyond the classification task, with task-specific sampling strategies and a proper reward baseline choice, RLCF can be easily extended to not only discrimination tasks like retrieval but also generalization tasks like image captioning, improving the zero-shot generalization capacity of VLMs. According to the characteristics of these VL tasks, we build different fully TTA pipelines with RLCF to improve the zero-shot generalization ability of various VLMs. Extensive experiments along with promising empirical results demonstrate the effectiveness of RLCF. The code is available at https://github.com/mzhaoshuai/RLCF.

Zero-shot Text-to-Speech (TTS) aims to synthesize high-quality speech that mimics the voice of an unseen speaker using only a short reference sample, requiring not only speaker adaptation but also accurate modeling of prosodic attributes. Recent approaches based on language models, diffusion, and flow matching have shown promising results in zero-shot TTS, but still suffer from slow inference and repetition artifacts. Discrete codec representations have been widely adopted for speech synthesis, and recent works have begun to explore diffusion models in purely discrete settings, suggesting the potential of discrete generative modeling for speech synthesis. However, existing flow-matching methods typically embed these discrete tokens into a continuous space and apply continuous flow matching, which may not fully leverage the advantages of discrete representations. To address these challenges, we introduce DiFlow-TTS, which, to the best of our knowledge, is the first model to explore purely Discrete Flow Matching for speech synthesis. DiFlow-TTS explicitly models factorized speech attributes within a compact and unified architecture. It leverages in-context learning by conditioning on textual content, along with prosodic and acoustic attributes extracted from a reference speech, enabling effective attribute cloning in a zero-shot setting. In addition, the model employs a factorized flow prediction mechanism with distinct heads for prosody and acoustic details, allowing it to learn aspect-specific distributions. Experimental results demonstrate that DiFlow-TTS achieves promising performance in several key metrics, including naturalness, prosody, preservation of speaker style, and energy control. It also maintains a compact model size and achieves low-latency inference, generating speech up to 25.8 times faster than the latest existing baselines.

Zero-shot text-to-speech (TTS) has gained significant attention due to its powerful voice cloning capabilities, requiring only a few seconds of unseen speaker voice prompts. However, all previous work has been developed for cloud-based systems. Taking autoregressive models as an example, although these approaches achieve high-fidelity voice cloning, they fall short in terms of inference speed, model size, and robustness. Therefore, we propose MobileSpeech, which is a fast, lightweight, and robust zero-shot text-to-speech system based on mobile devices for the first time. Specifically: 1) leveraging discrete codec, we design a parallel speech mask decoder module called SMD, which incorporates hierarchical information from the speech codec and weight mechanisms across different codec layers during the generation process. Moreover, to bridge the gap between text and speech, we introduce a high-level probabilistic mask that simulates the progression of information flow from less to more during speech generation. 2) For speaker prompts, we extract fine-grained prompt duration from the prompt speech and incorporate text, prompt speech by cross attention in SMD. We demonstrate the effectiveness of MobileSpeech on multilingual datasets at different levels, achieving state-of-the-art results in terms of generating speed and speech quality. MobileSpeech achieves RTF of 0.09 on a single A100 GPU and we have successfully deployed MobileSpeech on mobile devices. Audio samples are available at https://mobilespeech.github.io/ .

Tabular foundation models achieve strong zero-shot accuracy on structured data by pretraining on synthetic tables, but they ignore the column names, task descriptions, and auxiliary files that carry dataset semantics. Meanwhile, self-evolving machine learning engineering (MLE) agents train models from scratch on each dataset, yet jointly searching over features, architectures, and hyperparameters is noisy and prone to overfitting. We introduce TabFM-Auto, which pairs a tabular foundation model, TabFM, with a language model agent that evolves the data pipeline around it. Guided by dataset metadata and validation feedback, TabFM-Auto iteratively refines data cleaning, feature engineering, context selection, and post-processing to reduce TabFM's error. Across all 51 datasets of the TabArena benchmark, five TabFM-Auto configurations with different agents and language models take the top five overall positions, and the best raises TabFM from 1785 to 2013 Elo. The discovered pipelines also transfer to other frozen tabular foundation models (+69 to +143 Elo) with no further search. On the 8 tabular competitions of MLE-Bench, TabFM-Auto ranks first overall among MLE agents.

We present Zeus, a unified tuning-free Time Series Foundation Model (TSFM) that delivers superior performance across diverse analysis tasks without any task-specific fine-tuning. Unlike prior studies that primarily focus on zero-shot forecasting but require task-specific tuning for other tasks, Zeus bridges this gap by addressing two fundamental challenges in multi-task generalization. First, to reconcile point-level granularity with long-sequence scalability, Zeus incorporates a multi-scale Transformer featuring point-wise tokenization and a U-shaped hierarchy, effectively balancing fine-grained fidelity with computational efficiency. Second, to accommodate varying inductive biases across different tasks, Zeus introduces Multi-Objective Temporal Masking (MOTM), a unified strategy that supports heterogeneous tasks (e.g., extrapolation, interpolation, and global abstraction) within a single framework. Extensive experiments across five representative tasks demonstrate that Zeus consistently achieves competitive results in tuning-free settings, underscoring its potential as a general-purpose TSFM.

Foundation models (FMs) have transformed natural language processing, but their success has not yet translated to time series forecasting. Existing time series foundation models (TSFMs), often based on transformer variants, struggle with generalization across varying context and target lengths, lack adaptability to different sampling rates, and are computationally inefficient. We introduce FlowState, a novel TSFM architecture that addresses these challenges through two key innovations: a state space model (SSM) based encoder and a functional basis decoder. This design enables continuous-time modeling and dynamic time-scale adjustment, allowing FlowState to inherently generalize across all possible temporal resolutions, and dynamically adjust the forecasting horizons. In contrast to other state-of-the-art TSFMs, which require training data across all possible sampling rates to memorize patterns at each scale, FlowState inherently adapts its internal dynamics to the input scale, enabling smaller models, reduced data requirements, and improved efficiency. We further propose an efficient pretraining strategy that improves robustness and accelerates training. Despite being the smallest model, FlowState outperforms all other models and is state-of-the-art for the GIFT-ZS and the Chronos-ZS benchmarks. Ablation studies confirm the effectiveness of its components, and we demonstrate its unique ability to adapt online to varying input sampling rates.

We introduce MACROCAST, a lightweight Time Series Foundation Model (TSFM) for real-time macroeconomic forecasting. Existing TSFMs suffer from data leakage in two forms: temporal contamination, as the model may have seen the realized values of the series it forecasts, and revision bias, as training on fully revised data diverges from the preliminary, vintage-specific releases available to real-time forecasters. MACROCAST is, to our knowledge, the first TSFM that rules out both forms of leakage entirely: at no stage of training is the model exposed to information that would not have been available to a forecaster in real time. We train MACROCAST first on purely synthetic time series in approximately one GPU-day and then fine-tune it on synthetic time series drawn from Bayesian VARs, dynamic factor models, and ARIMA specifications estimated on vintage-specific ALFRED data. Because pretraining uses only simulated data and fine-tuning uses only real-time vintages, no observed future or revised value ever enters the model; each fine-tuning run takes nine minutes. Evaluated on the FRED-MD database in a genuine real-time out-of-sample exercise, MACROCAST improves on the AR(1) benchmark for roughly 80% of series-horizon pairs, matches or surpasses Chronos-2 -- the strongest currently available TSFM -- and outperforms the Bayesian VAR and dynamic factor model benchmarks, all in a data-leakage-free manner.

Foundation models have transformed natural language processing and computer vision, and a rapidly growing literature on time-series foundation models (TSFMs) seeks to replicate this success in forecasting. While recent open-source models demonstrate the promise of TSFMs, the field lacks a comprehensive and community-accepted model evaluation framework. We see at least four major issues impeding progress on the development of such a framework. First, existing evaluation frameworks comprise benchmark forecasting tasks derived from often outdated datasets (e.g., M3), many of which lack clear metadata and overlap with the corpora used to pre-train TSFMs. Second, these frameworks evaluate models along a narrowly defined set of benchmark forecasting tasks, such as forecast horizon length or domain, but overlook core statistical properties such as non-stationarity and seasonality. Third, domain-specific models (e.g., XGBoost) are often compared unfairly, as existing frameworks do not enforce a systematic and consistent hyperparameter tuning convention for all models. Fourth, visualization tools for interpreting comparative performance are lacking. To address these issues, we introduce TempusBench, an open-source evaluation framework for TSFMs. TempusBench consists of 1) new datasets which are not included in existing TSFM pretraining corpora, 2) a set of novel benchmark tasks that go beyond existing ones, 3) a model evaluation pipeline with a standardized hyperparameter tuning protocol, and 4) a tensorboard-based visualization interface. We provide access to our code on GitHub: https://github.com/Smlcrm/TempusBench and maintain a live leaderboard at https://benchmark.smlcrm.com/.

Learning on tabular data underpins numerous real-world applications. Despite considerable efforts in developing effective learning models for tabular data, current transferable tabular models remain in their infancy, limited by either the lack of support for direct instruction following in new tasks or the neglect of acquiring foundational knowledge and capabilities from diverse tabular datasets. In this paper, we propose Tabular Foundation Models (TabFMs) to overcome these limitations. TabFMs harness the potential of generative tabular learning, employing a pre-trained large language model (LLM) as the base model and fine-tuning it using purpose-designed objectives on an extensive range of tabular datasets. This approach endows TabFMs with a profound understanding and universal capabilities essential for learning on tabular data. Our evaluations underscore TabFM's effectiveness: not only does it significantly excel in instruction-following tasks like zero-shot and in-context inference, but it also showcases performance that approaches, and in instances, even transcends, the renowned yet mysterious closed-source LLMs like GPT-4. Furthermore, when fine-tuning with scarce data, our model achieves remarkable efficiency and maintains competitive performance with abundant training data. Finally, while our results are promising, we also delve into TabFM's limitations and potential opportunities, aiming to stimulate and expedite future research on developing more potent TabFMs.

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) have recently achieved state-of-the-art performance in univariate forecasting on new time series simply by conditioned on a brief history of past values. Their success demonstrates that large-scale pretraining across diverse domains can acquire the inductive bias to generalize from temporal patterns in a brief history. However, most TSFMs are unable to leverage covariates -- future-available exogenous variables critical for accurate forecasting in many applications -- due to their domain-specific nature and the lack of associated inductive bias. We propose TFMAdapter, a lightweight, instance-level adapter that augments TSFMs with covariate information without fine-tuning. Instead of retraining, TFMAdapter operates on the limited history provided during a single model call, learning a non-parametric cascade that combines covariates with univariate TSFM forecasts. However, such learning would require univariate forecasts at all steps in the history, requiring too many calls to the TSFM. To enable training on the full historical context while limiting TSFM invocations, TFMAdapter uses a two-stage method: (1) generating pseudo-forecasts with a simple regression model, and (2) training a Gaussian Process regressor to refine predictions using both pseudo- and TSFM forecasts alongside covariates. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that TFMAdapter consistently outperforms both foundation models and supervised baselines, achieving a 24-27\% improvement over base foundation models with minimal data and computational overhead. Our results highlight the potential of lightweight adapters to bridge the gap between generic foundation models and domain-specific forecasting needs.

Financial return forecasting is a difficult test case for time-series foundation models (TSFMs) due to low signal-to-noise ratios, structural breaks, heavy tails, and weak persistence. This paper benchmarks pretrained TSFMs against train-from-scratch neural baselines in a deliberately conservative financial setting. We evaluate TimeGPT/TimeGPT-LH, TimesFM-2.5, Moirai-2.0, Chronos, and Chronos-2 against NBEATS, NHITS, PatchTST, iTransformer, and KAN on five liquid U.S. equities (AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, JPM, META) using linear and log returns. Models are compared under an equalized context budget, a rolling-origin protocol, and against random-walk benchmarks. We provide a theoretical framing of pretraining as an inductive prior, linking PAC-Bayes transfer intuition, information-theoretic predictability limits, and attention geometry. This clarifies why strong model rankings need not imply economically meaningful predictability in noisy markets. Pragmatically, pretrained TSFMs dominate the ranking distribution, accounting for 8 of 10 task-level wins. Moirai-2.0 and TimesFM-2.5 achieve the strongest average ranks, leading tasks for AAPL, JPM, GOOG, and AMZN, while Chronos wins the remaining AMZN task. However, the iTransformer baseline wins both META tasks, showing local supervised learning can still outperform generic pretraining for specific assets. Crucially, gains over the random-walk benchmark are small and sparse. A one-sided Diebold-Mariano test rejects equal or inferior predictive accuracy only for Chronos on AMZN and Moirai-2.0 on GOOG. We conclude that TSFMs serve as useful practical priors that reduce model-development costs in low-data financial forecasting, but are not universal engines for statistically reliable alpha generation in realistic empirical deployment.

Recently, deep learning has driven significant advancements in multivariate time series forecasting (MTSF) tasks. However, much of the current research in MTSF tends to evaluate models from a holistic perspective, which obscures the individual contributions and leaves critical issues unaddressed. Adhering to the current modeling paradigms, this work bridges these gaps by systematically decomposing deep MTSF methods into their core, fine-grained components like series-patching tokenization, channel-independent strategy, attention modules, or even Large Language Models and Time-series Foundation Models. Through extensive experiments and component-level analysis, our work offers more profound insights than previous benchmarks that typically discuss models as a whole. Furthermore, we propose a novel automated solution called TSGym for MTSF tasks. Unlike traditional hyperparameter tuning, neural architecture searching or fixed model selection, TSGym performs fine-grained component selection and automated model construction, which enables the creation of more effective solutions tailored to diverse time series data, therefore enhancing model transferability across different data sources and robustness against distribution shifts. Extensive experiments indicate that TSGym significantly outperforms existing state-of-the-art MTSF and AutoML methods. All code is publicly available on https://github.com/SUFE-AILAB/TSGym.

We propose a zero-shot approach for consistent Text-to-Animated-Characters synthesis based on pre-trained Text-to-Image (T2I) diffusion models. Existing Text-to-Video (T2V) methods are expensive to train and require large-scale video datasets to produce diverse characters and motions. At the same time, their zero-shot alternatives fail to produce temporally consistent videos. We strive to bridge this gap, and we introduce a zero-shot approach that produces temporally consistent videos of animated characters and requires no training or fine-tuning. We leverage existing text-based motion diffusion models to generate diverse motions that we utilize to guide a T2I model. To achieve temporal consistency, we introduce the Spatial Latent Alignment module that exploits cross-frame dense correspondences that we compute to align the latents of the video frames. Furthermore, we propose Pixel-Wise Guidance to steer the diffusion process in a direction that minimizes visual discrepancies. Our proposed approach generates temporally consistent videos with diverse motions and styles, outperforming existing zero-shot T2V approaches in terms of pixel-wise consistency and user preference.

We propose a new paradigm for zero-shot learners that is format agnostic, i.e., it is compatible with any format and applicable to a list of language tasks, such as text classification, commonsense reasoning, coreference resolution, and sentiment analysis. Zero-shot learning aims to train a model on a given task such that it can address new learning tasks without any additional training. Our approach converts zero-shot learning into multiple-choice tasks, avoiding problems in commonly used large-scale generative models such as FLAN. It not only adds generalization ability to models but also significantly reduces the number of parameters. Our method shares the merits of efficient training and deployment. Our approach shows state-of-the-art performance on several benchmarks and produces satisfactory results on tasks such as natural language inference and text classification. Our model achieves this success with only 235M parameters, which is substantially smaller than state-of-the-art models with billions of parameters. The code and pre-trained models are available at https://github.com/IDEA-CCNL/Fengshenbang-LM .

Data scarcity and the modality gap between the speech and text modalities are two major obstacles of end-to-end Speech Translation (ST) systems, thus hindering their performance. Prior work has attempted to mitigate these challenges by leveraging external MT data and optimizing distance metrics that bring closer the speech-text representations. However, achieving competitive results typically requires some ST data. For this reason, we introduce ZeroSwot, a method for zero-shot ST that bridges the modality gap without any paired ST data. Leveraging a novel CTC compression and Optimal Transport, we train a speech encoder using only ASR data, to align with the representation space of a massively multilingual MT model. The speech encoder seamlessly integrates with the MT model at inference, enabling direct translation from speech to text, across all languages supported by the MT model. Our experiments show that we can effectively close the modality gap without ST data, while our results on MuST-C and CoVoST demonstrate our method's superiority over not only previous zero-shot models, but also supervised ones, achieving state-of-the-art results.

Tabular Foundation Models (TFMs) achieve state-of-the-art zero-shot accuracy on small tabular datasets by meta-learning over synthetic data-generating processes -- making them highly attractive for practitioners who cannot afford large annotated corpora. However, their in-context learning mechanism assumes approximately clean inputs: missing values, outliers, and duplicates in the real-world data create a prior mismatch that degrades both accuracy and confidence calibration simultaneously. Correcting this mismatch requires sequential decisions over cleaning operators whose interactions no static preprocessing rule can anticipate -a natural fit for reinforcement learning~(RL). We introduce L2C2, the first deep RL framework framing tabular data cleaning as prior alignment: a learned policy sequences operators to minimize the distributional gap between dirty input and the TFM's synthetic prior. Six experiments on ten OpenML benchmark datasets establish: 1) three of seven reward designs collapse to degenerate trivial cleaning strategies -- principled reward engineering is scientifically non-trivial; 2) the novel TFMAwareReward reward we propose selects structurally distinct pipelines on 4/10 datasets and achieves higher TabPFN accuracy on those diverging cases (mean 0.851 vs. 0.843; Wilcoxon p=0.063, n=4) while never underperforming; 3) parameterized cleaning actions improve best-found pipeline reward on 9/10 datasets (Wilcoxon p=0.004); and 4) a policy pre-trained on one single source dataset exceeds scratch training at the 2,000-step fine-tuning checkpoint on all three held-out datasets (up to +28.8% after full fine-tuning) demonstrating cross-dataset transfer of prior-alignment knowledge. These findings establish that prior alignment is a principled data preparation strategy for TFM deployment on real-world tabular data.

Time series question-answering (TSQA), in which we ask natural language questions to infer and reason about properties of time series, is a promising yet underexplored capability of foundation models. In this work, we present ARFBench, a TSQA benchmark that evaluates the understanding of multimodal foundation models (FMs) on time series anomalies prevalent in software incident data. ARFBench consists of 750 questions across 142 time series and 5.38M data points from 63 production incidents sourced exclusively from internal telemetry at Datadog. We evaluate leading proprietary and open-source LLMs, VLMs, and time series FMs and observe that frontier VLMs perform markedly better than existing baselines; the leading model (GPT-5) achieves a 62.7% accuracy and 51.9% F1. We next demonstrate the promise of specialized multimodal approaches. We develop a novel TSFM + VLM hybrid prototype which we post-train on a small set of synthetic and real data that yields comparable overall F1 and accuracy with frontier models. Lastly, we find models and human domain experts exhibit complementary strengths. We define a model-expert oracle, a best-of-2 oracle selector over model and expert answers, yielding 82.8% F1 and 87.2% accuracy and establishing a new superhuman frontier for future TSQA models. The benchmark is available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/Datadog/ARFBench.

Both zero-shot and tuning-based customized text-to-image (CT2I) generation have made significant progress for storytelling content creation. In contrast, research on customized text-to-video (CT2V) generation remains relatively limited. Existing zero-shot CT2V methods suffer from poor generalization, while another line of work directly combining tuning-based T2I models with temporal motion modules often leads to the loss of structural and texture information. To bridge this gap, we propose an autoregressive structure and texture propagation module (STPM), which extracts key structural and texture features from the reference subject and injects them autoregressively into each video frame to enhance consistency. Additionally, we introduce a test-time reward optimization (TTRO) method to further refine fine-grained details. Quantitative and qualitative experiments validate the effectiveness of STPM and TTRO, demonstrating improvements of 7.8 and 13.1 in CLIP-I and DINO consistency metrics over the baseline, respectively.

Financial time series forecasting is particularly challenging for transformer-based time series foundation models (TSFMs) due to non-stationarity, heavy-tailed distributions, and high-frequency noise present in data. Low-rank adaptation (LoRA) has become a popular parameter-efficient method for adapting pre-trained TSFMs to downstream data domains. However, it still underperforms in financial data, as it preserves the network architecture and training objective of TSFMs rather than complementing the foundation model. To further enhance TSFMs, we propose a novel refinement module, RefineBridge, built upon a tractable Schrödinger Bridge (SB) generative framework. Given the forecasts of TSFM as generative prior and the observed ground truths as targets, RefineBridge learns context-conditioned stochastic transport maps to improve TSFM predictions, iteratively approaching the ground-truth target from even a low-quality prior. Simulations on multiple financial benchmarks demonstrate that RefineBridge consistently improves the performance of state-of-the-art TSFMs across different prediction horizons.

This paper proposes a ChatGPT-based zero-shot Text-to-SQL method, dubbed C3, which achieves 82.3\% in terms of execution accuracy on the holdout test set of Spider and becomes the state-of-the-art zero-shot Text-to-SQL method on the Spider Challenge. C3 consists of three key components: Clear Prompting (CP), Calibration with Hints (CH), and Consistent Output (CO), which are corresponding to the model input, model bias and model output respectively. It provides a systematic treatment for zero-shot Text-to-SQL. Extensive experiments have been conducted to verify the effectiveness and efficiency of our proposed method.

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) are transforming the field of forecasting. However, evaluating them on historical data is increasingly difficult due to the risks of train-test sample overlaps and temporal overlaps between correlated train and test time series. To address this, we introduce TS-Arena, a live forecasting platform that shifts evaluation from the known past to the unknown future. Building on the concept of continuous benchmarking, TS-Arena evaluates models on future data. Crucially, we introduce a strict forecasting pre-registration protocol: models must submit predictions before the ground-truth data physically exists. This makes test-set contamination impossible by design. The platform relies on a modular microservice architecture that harmonizes and structures data from different sources and orchestrates containerized model submissions. By enforcing a strict pre-registration protocol on live data streams, TS-Arena prevents information leakage offers a faster alternative to traditional static, infrequently repeated competitions (e.g. the M-Competitions). First empirical results derived from operating TS-Arena over one year of energy time series demonstrate that established TSFMs accumulate robust longitudinal scores over time, while the continuous nature of the benchmark simultaneously allows newcomers to demonstrate immediate competitiveness. TS-Arena provides the necessary infrastructure to assess the true generalization capabilities of modern forecasting models. The platform and corresponding code are available at https://ts-arena.live/.

Pre-trained vision-language models (e.g., CLIP) have shown promising zero-shot generalization in many downstream tasks with properly designed text prompts. Instead of relying on hand-engineered prompts, recent works learn prompts using the training data from downstream tasks. While effective, training on domain-specific data reduces a model's generalization capability to unseen new domains. In this work, we propose test-time prompt tuning (TPT), a method that can learn adaptive prompts on the fly with a single test sample. For image classification, TPT optimizes the prompt by minimizing the entropy with confidence selection so that the model has consistent predictions across different augmented views of each test sample. In evaluating generalization to natural distribution shifts, TPT improves the zero-shot top-1 accuracy of CLIP by 3.6% on average, surpassing previous prompt tuning approaches that require additional task-specific training data. In evaluating cross-dataset generalization with unseen categories, TPT performs on par with the state-of-the-art approaches that use additional training data. Project page: https://azshue.github.io/TPT.

Time series data in real-world applications such as healthcare, climate modeling, and finance are often irregular, multimodal, and messy, with varying sampling rates, asynchronous modalities, and pervasive missingness. However, existing benchmarks typically assume clean, regularly sampled, unimodal data, creating a significant gap between research and real-world deployment. We introduce Time-IMM, a dataset specifically designed to capture cause-driven irregularity in multimodal multivariate time series. Time-IMM represents nine distinct types of time series irregularity, categorized into trigger-based, constraint-based, and artifact-based mechanisms. Complementing the dataset, we introduce IMM-TSF, a benchmark library for forecasting on irregular multimodal time series, enabling asynchronous integration and realistic evaluation. IMM-TSF includes specialized fusion modules, including a timestamp-to-text fusion module and a multimodality fusion module, which support both recency-aware averaging and attention-based integration strategies. Empirical results demonstrate that explicitly modeling multimodality on irregular time series data leads to substantial gains in forecasting performance. Time-IMM and IMM-TSF provide a foundation for advancing time series analysis under real-world conditions. The dataset is publicly available at https://github.com/blacksnail789521/Time-IMM, and the benchmark library can be accessed at https://github.com/blacksnail789521/IMM-TSF. Project page: https://blacksnail789521.github.io/time-imm-project-page/

Scaling laws offer valuable insights into the design of time series foundation models (TSFMs). However, previous research has largely focused on the scaling laws of TSFMs for in-distribution (ID) data, leaving their out-of-distribution (OOD) scaling behavior and the influence of model architectures less explored. In this work, we examine two common TSFM architectures, encoder-only and decoder-only Transformers, and investigate their scaling behavior on both ID and OOD data. These models are trained and evaluated across varying parameter counts, compute budgets, and dataset sizes. Our experiments reveal that the log-likelihood loss of TSFMs exhibits similar scaling behavior in both OOD and ID settings. We further compare the scaling properties across different architectures, incorporating two state-of-the-art TSFMs as case studies, showing that model architecture plays a significant role in scaling. The encoder-only Transformers demonstrate better scalability than the decoder-only Transformers, while the architectural enhancements in the two advanced TSFMs primarily improve ID performance but reduce OOD scalability. While scaling up TSFMs is expected to drive performance breakthroughs, the lack of a comprehensive understanding of TSFM scaling laws has hindered the development of a robust framework to guide model scaling. We fill this gap in this work by synthesizing our findings and providing practical guidelines for designing and scaling larger TSFMs with enhanced model capabilities.

We propose AnyTOD, an end-to-end, zero-shot task-oriented dialog (TOD) system capable of handling unseen tasks without task-specific training. We view TOD as a program executed by a language model (LM), where program logic and ontology is provided by a designer as a schema. To enable generalization to unseen schemas and programs without prior training, AnyTOD adopts a neuro-symbolic approach. A neural LM keeps track of events occurring during a conversation and a symbolic program implementing the dialog policy is executed to recommend next actions AnyTOD should take. This approach drastically reduces data annotation and model training requirements, addressing the enduring challenge of rapidly adapting a TOD system to unseen tasks and domains. We demonstrate state-of-the-art results on STAR, ABCD and SGD benchmarks. We also demonstrate strong zero-shot transfer ability in low-resource settings, such as zero-shot on MultiWOZ. In addition, we release STARv2, an updated version of the STAR dataset with richer annotations, for benchmarking zero-shot end-to-end TOD models.

Zero-shot streaming text-to-speech is an important research topic in human-computer interaction. Existing methods primarily use a lookahead mechanism, relying on future text to achieve natural streaming speech synthesis, which introduces high processing latency. To address this issue, we propose SMLLE, a streaming framework for generating high-quality speech frame-by-frame. SMLLE employs a Transducer to convert text into semantic tokens in real time while simultaneously obtaining duration alignment information. The combined outputs are then fed into a fully autoregressive (AR) streaming model to reconstruct mel-spectrograms. To further stabilize the generation process, we design a Delete < Bos > Mechanism that allows the AR model to access future text introducing as minimal delay as possible. Experimental results suggest that the SMLLE outperforms current streaming TTS methods and achieves comparable performance over sentence-level TTS systems. Samples are available on https://anonymous.4open.science/w/demo_page-48B7/.

Despite the rapid advancements in Artificial Intelligence (AI), Stochastic Differential Equations (SDEs) remain the gold-standard formalism for modeling systems under uncertainty. However, applying SDEs in practice is fraught with challenges: modeling risk is high, calibration is often brittle, and high-fidelity simulations are computationally expensive. This technical report introduces JointFM, a foundation model that inverts this paradigm. Instead of fitting SDEs to data, we sample an infinite stream of synthetic SDEs to train a generic model to predict future joint probability distributions directly. This approach establishes JointFM as the first foundation model for distributional predictions of coupled time series - requiring no task-specific calibration or finetuning. Despite operating in a purely zero-shot setting, JointFM reduces the energy loss by 14.2% relative to the strongest baseline when recovering oracle joint distributions generated by unseen synthetic SDEs.

With large Foundation Models (FMs), language technologies (AI in general) are entering a new paradigm: eliminating the need for developing large-scale task-specific datasets and supporting a variety of tasks through set-ups ranging from zero-shot to few-shot learning. However, understanding FMs capabilities requires a systematic benchmarking effort by comparing FMs performance with the state-of-the-art (SOTA) task-specific models. With that goal, past work focused on the English language and included a few efforts with multiple languages. Our study contributes to ongoing research by evaluating FMs performance for standard Arabic NLP and Speech processing, including a range of tasks from sequence tagging to content classification across diverse domains. We start with zero-shot learning using GPT-3.5-turbo, Whisper, and USM, addressing 33 unique tasks using 59 publicly available datasets resulting in 96 test setups. For a few tasks, FMs performs on par or exceeds the performance of the SOTA models but for the majority it under-performs. Given the importance of prompt for the FMs performance, we discuss our prompt strategies in detail and elaborate on our findings. Our future work on Arabic AI will explore few-shot prompting, expand the range of tasks, and investigate additional open-source models.

Fine-tuning vision-language models (VLMs) like CLIP to downstream tasks is often necessary to optimize their performance. However, a major obstacle is the limited availability of labeled data. We study the use of pseudolabels, i.e., heuristic labels for unlabeled data, to enhance CLIP via prompt tuning. Conventional pseudolabeling trains a model on labeled data and then generates labels for unlabeled data. VLMs' zero-shot capabilities enable a ``second generation'' of pseudolabeling approaches that do not require task-specific training on labeled data. By using zero-shot pseudolabels as a source of supervision, we observe that learning paradigms such as semi-supervised, transductive zero-shot, and unsupervised learning can all be seen as optimizing the same loss function. This unified view enables the development of versatile training strategies that are applicable across learning paradigms. We investigate them on image classification tasks where CLIP exhibits limitations, by varying prompt modalities, e.g., textual or visual prompts, and learning paradigms. We find that (1) unexplored prompt tuning strategies that iteratively refine pseudolabels consistently improve CLIP accuracy, by 19.5 points in semi-supervised learning, by 28.4 points in transductive zero-shot learning, and by 15.2 points in unsupervised learning, and (2) unlike conventional semi-supervised pseudolabeling, which exacerbates model biases toward classes with higher-quality pseudolabels, prompt tuning leads to a more equitable distribution of per-class accuracy. The code to reproduce the experiments is at github.com/BatsResearch/menghini-enhanceCLIPwithCLIP-code.

There is a growing interest in dataset generation recently due to the superior generative capacity of large pre-trained language models (PLMs). In this paper, we study a flexible and efficient zero-short learning method, ZeroGen. Given a zero-shot task, we first generate a dataset from scratch using PLMs in an unsupervised manner. Then, we train a tiny task model (e.g., LSTM) under the supervision of the synthesized dataset. This approach allows highly efficient inference as the final task model only has orders of magnitude fewer parameters comparing to PLMs (e.g., GPT2-XL). Apart from being annotation-free and efficient, we argue that ZeroGen can also provide useful insights from the perspective of data-free model-agnostic knowledge distillation, and unreferenced text generation evaluation. Experiments and analysis on different NLP tasks, namely, text classification, question answering, and natural language inference, show the effectiveness of ZeroGen.

Data generation-based zero-shot learning, although effective in training Small Task-specific Models (STMs) via synthetic datasets generated by Pre-trained Language Models (PLMs), is often limited by the low quality of such synthetic datasets. Previous solutions have primarily focused on single PLM settings, where synthetic datasets are typically restricted to specific sub-spaces and often deviate from real-world distributions, leading to severe distribution bias. To mitigate such bias, we propose FuseGen, a novel data generation-based zero-shot learning framework that introduces a new criteria for subset selection from synthetic datasets via utilizing multiple PLMs and trained STMs. The chosen subset provides in-context feedback to each PLM, enhancing dataset quality through iterative data generation. Trained STMs are then used for sample re-weighting as well, further improving data quality. Extensive experiments across diverse tasks demonstrate that FuseGen substantially outperforms existing methods, highly effective in boosting STM performance in a PLM-agnostic way. Code is provided in https://github.com/LindaLydia/FuseGen.

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) are transforming the forecasting paradigm through large-scale cross-domain pretraining. However, most existing TSFMs remain univariate, and recent efforts to enable cross-variate modeling still operate directly within the raw variate space. This design introduces fundamental limitations in semantic alignment and relational expressivity. Specifically, raw-space group mixing lacks a dedicated mechanism to align heterogeneous physical quantities, while standard non-negative attention fails to capture the complex synergistic and antagonistic interactions ubiquitous in real-world systems. To address these challenges, we propose Falcon-X, decouples variates from the raw space and maps them into a unified latent prototype space. Falcon-X employs a Unified Prototype Diff-Attention mechanism that explicitly evaluates both positive and negative semantic affinities to explicitly align heterogeneous variates. Cross-variate interactions are then efficiently performed within this shared space via Latent Entity Attention, naturally facilitating zero-shot structural transfer. Finally, a Variate Reassembly Router robustly reconstructs variate-specific trajectories via a request-and-dispatch mechanism. Extensive evaluations on the GIFT-Eval and fev-bench benchmarks demonstrate that Falcon-X achieves state-of-the-art forecasting performance, offering a principled and scalable paradigm for complex multivariate environments. Falcon-X is publicly released to support future research.

In the realm of time series forecasting (TSF), it is imperative for models to adeptly discern and distill hidden patterns within historical time series data to forecast future states. Transformer-based models exhibit formidable efficacy in TSF, primarily attributed to their advantage in apprehending these patterns. However, the quadratic complexity of the Transformer leads to low computational efficiency and high costs, which somewhat hinders the deployment of the TSF model in real-world scenarios. Recently, Mamba, a selective state space model, has gained traction due to its ability to process dependencies in sequences while maintaining near-linear complexity. For TSF tasks, these characteristics enable Mamba to comprehend hidden patterns as the Transformer and reduce computational overhead compared to the Transformer. Therefore, we propose a Mamba-based model named Simple-Mamba (S-Mamba) for TSF. Specifically, we tokenize the time points of each variate autonomously via a linear layer. A bidirectional Mamba layer is utilized to extract inter-variate correlations and a Feed-Forward Network is set to learn temporal dependencies. Finally, the generation of forecast outcomes through a linear mapping layer. Experiments on thirteen public datasets prove that S-Mamba maintains low computational overhead and achieves leading performance. Furthermore, we conduct extensive experiments to explore Mamba's potential in TSF tasks. Our code is available at https://github.com/wzhwzhwzh0921/S-D-Mamba.

Multilingual Neural Machine Translation (MNMT) facilitates knowledge sharing but often suffers from poor zero-shot (ZS) translation qualities. While prior work has explored the causes of overall low ZS performance, our work introduces a fresh perspective: the presence of high variations in ZS performance. This suggests that MNMT does not uniformly exhibit poor ZS capability; instead, certain translation directions yield reasonable results. Through systematic experimentation involving 1,560 language directions spanning 40 languages, we identify three key factors contributing to high variations in ZS NMT performance: 1) target side translation capability 2) vocabulary overlap 3) linguistic properties. Our findings highlight that the target side translation quality is the most influential factor, with vocabulary overlap consistently impacting ZS performance. Additionally, linguistic properties, such as language family and writing system, play a role, particularly with smaller models. Furthermore, we suggest that the off-target issue is a symptom of inadequate ZS performance, emphasizing that zero-shot translation challenges extend beyond addressing the off-target problem. We release the data and models serving as a benchmark to study zero-shot for future research at https://github.com/Smu-Tan/ZS-NMT-Variations

Pretrained large language models (LLMs) are widely used in many sub-fields of natural language processing (NLP) and generally known as excellent few-shot learners with task-specific exemplars. Notably, chain of thought (CoT) prompting, a recent technique for eliciting complex multi-step reasoning through step-by-step answer examples, achieved the state-of-the-art performances in arithmetics and symbolic reasoning, difficult system-2 tasks that do not follow the standard scaling laws for LLMs. While these successes are often attributed to LLMs' ability for few-shot learning, we show that LLMs are decent zero-shot reasoners by simply adding "Let's think step by step" before each answer. Experimental results demonstrate that our Zero-shot-CoT, using the same single prompt template, significantly outperforms zero-shot LLM performances on diverse benchmark reasoning tasks including arithmetics (MultiArith, GSM8K, AQUA-RAT, SVAMP), symbolic reasoning (Last Letter, Coin Flip), and other logical reasoning tasks (Date Understanding, Tracking Shuffled Objects), without any hand-crafted few-shot examples, e.g. increasing the accuracy on MultiArith from 17.7% to 78.7% and GSM8K from 10.4% to 40.7% with large InstructGPT model (text-davinci-002), as well as similar magnitudes of improvements with another off-the-shelf large model, 540B parameter PaLM. The versatility of this single prompt across very diverse reasoning tasks hints at untapped and understudied fundamental zero-shot capabilities of LLMs, suggesting high-level, multi-task broad cognitive capabilities may be extracted by simple prompting. We hope our work not only serves as the minimal strongest zero-shot baseline for the challenging reasoning benchmarks, but also highlights the importance of carefully exploring and analyzing the enormous zero-shot knowledge hidden inside LLMs before crafting finetuning datasets or few-shot exemplars.

Zero-shot text-to-speech (TTS) has improved substantially for single-speaker synthesis, yet expressive long-form multi-speaker dialogue remains difficult. A common workaround is to synthesize each turn with a monologue TTS model and stitch the outputs together. This adds inference cost and often breaks acoustic consistency, conversational coherence, and affective continuity across turns. Recent dialogue TTS systems have begun to address this setting, but they still struggle to keep expressive coherence, controllable speaker switching, and monologue quality at the same time. We present SwanData-Speech and SwanVoice. SwanData-Speech builds monologue and dialogue corpora from in-the-wild audio, using Swan Forced Aligner for pause-aware word-level alignment and RobustMegaTTS3 for pronunciation-hard cases. Built on these data, SwanVoice is a zero-shot TTS model for 1--4 speakers, combining a 25 Hz VAE, raw-text conditioning with pause-aware symbols and pinyin substitution, and a flow-matching DiT with speaker-turn conditioning. Training starts from monologue speech, moves through mixed and real dialogue data, and then uses DiffusionNFT post-training with phone-level and speaker-similarity rewards. On SwanBench-Speech, SwanVoice obtains higher richness and hierarchy scores than all evaluated open-source baselines in both monologue and dialogue settings, while content accuracy remains the main limitation. Audio demos are available at https://swanaigc.github.io//#swanvoice.

Incorporating a temporal dimension into pretrained image diffusion models for video generation is a prevalent approach. However, this method is computationally demanding and necessitates large-scale video datasets. More critically, the heterogeneity between image and video datasets often results in catastrophic forgetting of the image expertise. Recent attempts to directly extract video snippets from image diffusion models have somewhat mitigated these problems. Nevertheless, these methods can only generate brief video clips with simple movements and fail to capture fine-grained motion or non-grid deformation. In this paper, we propose a novel Zero-Shot video Sampling algorithm, denoted as ZS^2, capable of directly sampling high-quality video clips from existing image synthesis methods, such as Stable Diffusion, without any training or optimization. Specifically, ZS^2 utilizes the dependency noise model and temporal momentum attention to ensure content consistency and animation coherence, respectively. This ability enables it to excel in related tasks, such as conditional and context-specialized video generation and instruction-guided video editing. Experimental results demonstrate that ZS^2 achieves state-of-the-art performance in zero-shot video generation, occasionally outperforming recent supervised methods. Homepage: https://densechen.github.io/zss/.

Zero-shot, training-free, image-based text-to-video generation is an emerging area that aims to generate videos using existing image-based diffusion models. Current methods in this space require specific architectural changes to image generation models, which limit their adaptability and scalability. In contrast to such methods, we provide a model-agnostic approach. We use intersections in diffusion trajectories, working only with the latent values. We could not obtain localized frame-wise coherence and diversity using only the intersection of trajectories. Thus, we instead use a grid-based approach. An in-context trained LLM is used to generate coherent frame-wise prompts; another is used to identify differences between frames. Based on these, we obtain a CLIP-based attention mask that controls the timing of switching the prompts for each grid cell. Earlier switching results in higher variance, while later switching results in more coherence. Therefore, our approach can ensure appropriate control between coherence and variance for the frames. Our approach results in state-of-the-art performance while being more flexible when working with diverse image-generation models. The empirical analysis using quantitative metrics and user studies confirms our model's superior temporal consistency, visual fidelity and user satisfaction, thus providing a novel way to obtain training-free, image-based text-to-video generation.

In prior work, we introduced IndexTTS 2, a zero-shot neural text-to-speech foundation model comprising two core components: a transformer-based Text-to-Semantic (T2S) module and a non-autoregressive Semantic-to-Mel (S2M) module, which together enable faithful emotion replication and establish the first autoregressive duration-controllable generative paradigm. Building upon this, we present IndexTTS 2.5, which significantly enhances multilingual coverage, inference speed, and overall synthesis quality through four key improvements: 1) Semantic Codec Compression: we reduce the semantic codec frame rate from 50 Hz to 25 Hz, halving sequence length and substantially lowering both training and inference costs; 2) Architectural Upgrade: we replace the U-DiT-based backbone of the S2M module with a more efficient Zipformer-based modeling architecture, achieving notable parameter reduction and faster mel-spectrogram generation; 3) Multilingual Extension: We propose three explicit cross-lingual modeling strategies, boundary-aware alignment, token-level concatenation, and instruction-guided generation, establishing practical design principles for zero-shot multilingual emotional TTS that supports Chinese, English, Japanese, and Spanish, and enables robust emotion transfer even without target-language emotional training data; 4) Reinforcement Learning Optimization: we apply GRPO in post-training of the T2S module, improving pronunciation accuracy and natrualness. Experiments show that IndexTTS 2.5 not only supports broader language coverage but also replicates emotional prosody in unseen languages under the same zero-shot setting. IndexTTS 2.5 achieves a 2.28 times improvement in RTF while maintaining comparable WER and speaker similarity to IndexTTS 2.

Accurate household electricity short-term load forecasting (STLF) is key to future and sustainable energy systems. While various studies have analyzed statistical, machine learning, or deep learning approaches for household electricity STLF, recently proposed time series foundation models such as Chronos, TimesFM or Time-MoE promise a new approach for household electricity STLF. These models are trained on a vast amount of time series data and are able to forecast time series without explicit task-specific training (zero-shot learning). In this study, we benchmark the forecasting capabilities of time series foundation models compared to Trained-from-Scratch (TFS) Transformer-based approaches. Our results suggest that foundation models perform comparably to TFS Transformer models, while certain time series foundation models outperform all TFS models when the input size increases. At the same time, they require less effort, as they need no domain-specific training and only limited contextual data for inference.

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) advance generalization and data efficiency in time series forecasting by unified large-scale pretraining. But TSFMs remain lacking when adapting to specific downstream forecasting tasks for two reasons. First, the non-stationary and uncertain nature of time series data lead to inevitable temporal distribution shifts between historical training and future testing data, while current Supervised FineTuning (SFT)-based methods are prone to overfitting and may degrade generalization. Second, training data availability varies across forecasting tasks, requiring TSFMs to generalize well under diverse data regimes. To address these challenges, we introduce the Time series Reinforcement Finetuning (TimeRFT) paradigm for TSFM downstream adaptation, which consists of two task-specific training recipes: i) A forecasting quality-based temporal reward mechanism that conducts a multi-faceted evaluation of the contribution of each prediction step to overall forecasting accuracy. ii) A forecasting difficulty-based data selection strategy to identify time series samples with generalizable predictive patterns and informative training signals. Extensive experiments demonstrate TimeRFT can consistently outperform SFT-based adaptation methods across various real-world forecasting tasks and training data regimes, enhancing prediction accuracy and generalization against unforeseen distribution shifts.

Test-time adaptation (TTA) aims to address distribution shifts between source and target data by relying solely on target data during testing. In open-world scenarios, models often encounter noisy samples, i.e., samples outside the in-distribution (ID) label space. Leveraging the zero-shot capability of pre-trained vision-language models (VLMs), this paper introduces Zero-Shot Noisy TTA (ZS-NTTA), focusing on adapting the model to target data with noisy samples during test-time in a zero-shot manner. We find existing TTA methods underperform under ZS-NTTA, often lagging behind even the frozen model. We conduct comprehensive experiments to analyze this phenomenon, revealing that the negative impact of unfiltered noisy data outweighs the benefits of clean data during model updating. Also, adapting a classifier for ID classification and noise detection hampers both sub-tasks. Built on this, we propose a framework that decouples the classifier and detector, focusing on developing an individual detector while keeping the classifier frozen. Technically, we introduce the Adaptive Noise Detector (AdaND), which utilizes the frozen model's outputs as pseudo-labels to train a noise detector. To handle clean data streams, we further inject Gaussian noise during adaptation, preventing the detector from misclassifying clean samples as noisy. Beyond the ZS-NTTA, AdaND can also improve the zero-shot out-of-distribution (ZS-OOD) detection ability of VLMs. Experiments show that AdaND outperforms in both ZS-NTTA and ZS-OOD detection. On ImageNet, AdaND achieves a notable improvement of 8.32% in harmonic mean accuracy (Acc_H) for ZS-NTTA and 9.40% in FPR95 for ZS-OOD detection, compared to SOTA methods. Importantly, AdaND is computationally efficient and comparable to the model-frozen method. The code is publicly available at: https://github.com/tmlr-group/ZS-NTTA.

Time series classification (TSC) spans diverse application scenarios, yet labeled data are often scarce, making task-specific training costly and inflexible. Recent reasoning-oriented large language models (LLMs) show promise in understanding temporal patterns, but purely zero-shot usage remains suboptimal. We propose FETA, a multi-agent framework for training-free TSC via exemplar-based in-context reasoning. FETA decomposes a multivariate series into channel-wise subproblems, retrieves a few structurally similar labeled examples for each channel, and leverages a reasoning LLM to compare the query against these exemplars, producing channel-level labels with self-assessed confidences; a confidence-weighted aggregator then fuses all channel decisions. This design eliminates the need for pretraining or fine-tuning, improves efficiency by pruning irrelevant channels and controlling input length, and enhances interpretability through exemplar grounding and confidence estimation. On nine challenging UEA datasets, FETA achieves strong accuracy under a fully training-free setting, surpassing multiple trained baselines. These results demonstrate that a multi-agent in-context reasoning framework can transform LLMs into competitive, plug-and-play TSC solvers without any parameter training. The code is available at https://github.com/SongyuanSui/FETATSC.

Multitask prompted finetuning (MTF) has been shown to help large language models generalize to new tasks in a zero-shot setting, but so far explorations of MTF have focused on English data and models. We apply MTF to the pretrained multilingual BLOOM and mT5 model families to produce finetuned variants called BLOOMZ and mT0. We find finetuning large multilingual language models on English tasks with English prompts allows for task generalization to non-English languages that appear only in the pretraining corpus. Finetuning on multilingual tasks with English prompts further improves performance on English and non-English tasks leading to various state-of-the-art zero-shot results. We also investigate finetuning on multilingual tasks with prompts that have been machine-translated from English to match the language of each dataset. We find training on these machine-translated prompts leads to better performance on human-written prompts in the respective languages. Surprisingly, we find models are capable of zero-shot generalization to tasks in languages they have never intentionally seen. We conjecture that the models are learning higher-level capabilities that are both task- and language-agnostic. In addition, we introduce xP3, a composite of supervised datasets in 46 languages with English and machine-translated prompts. Our code, datasets and models are publicly available at https://github.com/bigscience-workshop/xmtf.

Zero-shot text-to-speech (TTS) synthesis aims to clone any unseen speaker's voice without adaptation parameters. By quantizing speech waveform into discrete acoustic tokens and modeling these tokens with the language model, recent language model-based TTS models show zero-shot speaker adaptation capabilities with only a 3-second acoustic prompt of an unseen speaker. However, they are limited by the length of the acoustic prompt, which makes it difficult to clone personal speaking style. In this paper, we propose a novel zero-shot TTS model with the multi-scale acoustic prompts based on a neural codec language model VALL-E. A speaker-aware text encoder is proposed to learn the personal speaking style at the phoneme-level from the style prompt consisting of multiple sentences. Following that, a VALL-E based acoustic decoder is utilized to model the timbre from the timbre prompt at the frame-level and generate speech. The experimental results show that our proposed method outperforms baselines in terms of naturalness and speaker similarity, and can achieve better performance by scaling out to a longer style prompt.

Zero-shot text-to-speech aims at synthesizing voices with unseen speech prompts. Previous large-scale multispeaker TTS models have successfully achieved this goal with an enrolled recording within 10 seconds. However, most of them are designed to utilize only short speech prompts. The limited information in short speech prompts significantly hinders the performance of fine-grained identity imitation. In this paper, we introduce Mega-TTS 2, a generic zero-shot multispeaker TTS model that is capable of synthesizing speech for unseen speakers with arbitrary-length prompts. Specifically, we 1) design a multi-reference timbre encoder to extract timbre information from multiple reference speeches; 2) and train a prosody language model with arbitrary-length speech prompts; With these designs, our model is suitable for prompts of different lengths, which extends the upper bound of speech quality for zero-shot text-to-speech. Besides arbitrary-length prompts, we introduce arbitrary-source prompts, which leverages the probabilities derived from multiple P-LLM outputs to produce expressive and controlled prosody. Furthermore, we propose a phoneme-level auto-regressive duration model to introduce in-context learning capabilities to duration modeling. Experiments demonstrate that our method could not only synthesize identity-preserving speech with a short prompt of an unseen speaker but also achieve improved performance with longer speech prompts. Audio samples can be found in https://mega-tts.github.io/mega2_demo/.

Recent alignment-free non-autoregressive (NAR) text-to-speech (TTS) models formulate synthesis as a conditional infilling task, bypassing explicit duration predictors and external aligners. When speech is represented with neural codec tokens, the infilling problem becomes discrete, making Discrete Flow Matching (DFM), a Continuous-Time Markov Chain (CTMC) framework for discrete generation, a natural fit. However, inference-time control for stable low-step conditional infilling remains underexplored. We propose Mask, Sample, Revise, an inference-time CTMC stack for alignment-free DFM-TTS. The stack combines predictor-free guidance to strengthen text conditioning, prompt-matched conditional coupling to align the probability path with the acoustic prompt, and SC-ReMask, a schedule-constrained remasking mechanism that introduces token-to-mask transitions so early de-masking decisions can be revised. These components require no post-hoc fine-tuning and operate in a single tau-leaping sampler. Controlled ablations show that this stack improves intelligibility and robustness in the low-NFE prompted setting, outperforming unguided and guidance-only samplers with substantially more steps.

YourTTS brings the power of a multilingual approach to the task of zero-shot multi-speaker TTS. Our method builds upon the VITS model and adds several novel modifications for zero-shot multi-speaker and multilingual training. We achieved state-of-the-art (SOTA) results in zero-shot multi-speaker TTS and results comparable to SOTA in zero-shot voice conversion on the VCTK dataset. Additionally, our approach achieves promising results in a target language with a single-speaker dataset, opening possibilities for zero-shot multi-speaker TTS and zero-shot voice conversion systems in low-resource languages. Finally, it is possible to fine-tune the YourTTS model with less than 1 minute of speech and achieve state-of-the-art results in voice similarity and with reasonable quality. This is important to allow synthesis for speakers with a very different voice or recording characteristics from those seen during training.

Foundation models have emerged as a promising approach in time series forecasting (TSF). Existing approaches either fine-tune large language models (LLMs) or build large-scale time-series datasets to develop TSF foundation models. However, these methods face challenges due to the severe cross-domain gap or in-domain heterogeneity. In this paper, we explore a new road to building a TSF foundation model from rich and high-quality natural images, based on the intrinsic similarities between images and time series. To bridge the gap between the two domains, we reformulate the TSF task as an image reconstruction task, which is further processed by a visual masked autoencoder (MAE) self-supervised pre-trained on the ImageNet dataset. Surprisingly, without further adaptation in the time-series domain, the proposed VisionTS could achieve superior zero-shot forecasting performance compared to existing TSF foundation models. With minimal fine-tuning, VisionTS could further improve the forecasting and achieve state-of-the-art performance in most cases. These findings suggest that visual models could be a free lunch for TSF and highlight the potential for future cross-domain research between computer vision and TSF. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/Keytoyze/VisionTS.

The rise of time-series pre-trained models has advanced temporal representation learning, but current state-of-the-art models are often large-scale, requiring substantial compute. We introduce TSPulse, ultra-compact time-series pre-trained models with only 1M parameters, specialized to perform strongly across classification, anomaly detection, imputation, and retrieval tasks. TSPulse introduces innovations at both the architecture and task levels. At the architecture level, it employs a dual-space masked reconstruction, learning from both time and frequency domains to capture complementary signals. This is further enhanced by a dual-embedding disentanglement, generating both detailed embeddings for fine-grained analysis and high-level semantic embeddings for broader task understanding. Notably, TSPulse's semantic embeddings are robust to shifts in time, magnitude, and noise, which is important for robust retrieval. At the task level, TSPulse incorporates TSLens, a fine-tuning component enabling task-specific feature attention. It also introduces a multi-head triangulation technique that correlates deviations from multiple prediction heads, enhancing anomaly detection by fusing complementary model outputs. Additionally, a hybrid mask pretraining is proposed to improves zero-shot imputation by reducing pre-training bias. These architecture and task innovations collectively contribute to TSPulse's significant performance gains: 5-16% on the UEA classification benchmarks, +20% on the TSB-AD anomaly detection leaderboard, +50% in zero-shot imputation, and +25% in time-series retrieval. Remarkably, these results are achieved with just 1M parameters, making TSPulse 10-100X smaller than existing pre-trained models. Its efficiency enables GPU-free inference and rapid pre-training, setting a new standard for efficient time-series pre-trained models. Models will be open-sourced soon.

Fine-tuning large pre-trained LLMs generally demands extensive GPU memory. Traditional first-order optimizers like SGD encounter substantial difficulties due to increased memory requirements from storing activations and gradients during both the forward and backward phases as the model size expands. Alternatively, zeroth-order (ZO) techniques can compute gradients using just forward operations, eliminating the need to store activations. Furthermore, by leveraging CPU capabilities, it's feasible to enhance both the memory and processing power available to a single GPU. We propose a novel framework, ZO2 (Zeroth-Order Offloading), for efficient zeroth-order fine-tuning of LLMs with only limited GPU memory. Our framework dynamically shifts model parameters between the CPU and GPU as required, optimizing computation flow and maximizing GPU usage by minimizing downtime. This integration of parameter adjustments with ZO's double forward operations reduces unnecessary data movement, enhancing the fine-tuning efficacy. Additionally, our framework supports an innovative low-bit precision approach in AMP mode to streamline data exchanges between the CPU and GPU. Employing this approach allows us to fine-tune extraordinarily large models, such as the OPT-175B with more than 175 billion parameters, on a mere 18GB GPU--achievements beyond the reach of traditional methods. Moreover, our framework achieves these results with almost no additional time overhead and absolutely no accuracy loss compared to standard zeroth-order methods. ZO2's code has been open-sourced in https://github.com/liangyuwang/zo2.

The success of large-scale pre-training paradigm, exemplified by Large Language Models (LLMs), has inspired the development of Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs). However, their application to financial candlestick (K-line) data remains limited, often underperforming non-pre-trained architectures. Moreover, existing TSFMs often overlook crucial downstream tasks such as volatility prediction and synthetic data generation. To address these limitations, we propose Kronos, a unified, scalable pre-training framework tailored to financial K-line modeling. Kronos introduces a specialized tokenizer that discretizes continuous market information into token sequences, preserving both price dynamics and trade activity patterns. We pre-train Kronos using an autoregressive objective on a massive, multi-market corpus of over 12 billion K-line records from 45 global exchanges, enabling it to learn nuanced temporal and cross-asset representations. Kronos excels in a zero-shot setting across a diverse set of financial tasks. On benchmark datasets, Kronos boosts price series forecasting RankIC by 93% over the leading TSFM and 87% over the best non-pre-trained baseline. It also achieves a 9% lower MAE in volatility forecasting and a 22% improvement in generative fidelity for synthetic K-line sequences. These results establish Kronos as a robust, versatile foundation model for end-to-end financial time series analysis. Our pre-trained model is publicly available at https://github.com/shiyu-coder/Kronos.

We introduce TinyCast, an attention-free zero-shot forecaster that emits a predictive distribution from 146,505 parameters, on the premise that at this size the periodic structure of a context is worth computing rather than learning. A zero-parameter spectral detector supplies the dominant periods, the context is folded on their phase, and a dilated convolutional encoder and a block-autoregressive quantile decoder model the rest. It is smaller than every zero-shot entry on the GIFT-Eval board whose parameter count can be established. On probabilistic accuracy it defines the size-accuracy frontier. Among zero-shot entries declaring no test-data leakage it is the only one below 1.4M parameters that emits a predictive distribution, and every entry scoring better carries at least that budget. On Chronos-ZS and fev-bench every neural model ahead of it carries at least 28 times its parameters. Because the mixing path is convolutions and matrix multiplications only, it exports to static INT8 and forecasts end to end on an embedded device without per-signal fitting.

Zero-shot capability has been considered as a new revolution of deep learning, letting machines work on tasks without curated training data. As a good start and the only existing outcome of zero-shot image captioning (IC), ZeroCap abandons supervised training and sequentially searches every word in the caption using the knowledge of large-scale pretrained models. Though effective, its autoregressive generation and gradient-directed searching mechanism limit the diversity of captions and inference speed, respectively. Moreover, ZeroCap does not consider the controllability issue of zero-shot IC. To move forward, we propose a framework for Controllable Zero-shot IC, named ConZIC. The core of ConZIC is a novel sampling-based non-autoregressive language model named GibbsBERT, which can generate and continuously polish every word. Extensive quantitative and qualitative results demonstrate the superior performance of our proposed ConZIC for both zero-shot IC and controllable zero-shot IC. Especially, ConZIC achieves about 5x faster generation speed than ZeroCap, and about 1.5x higher diversity scores, with accurate generation given different control signals.

We propose TR0N, a highly general framework to turn pre-trained unconditional generative models, such as GANs and VAEs, into conditional models. The conditioning can be highly arbitrary, and requires only a pre-trained auxiliary model. For example, we show how to turn unconditional models into class-conditional ones with the help of a classifier, and also into text-to-image models by leveraging CLIP. TR0N learns a lightweight stochastic mapping which "translates" between the space of conditions and the latent space of the generative model, in such a way that the generated latent corresponds to a data sample satisfying the desired condition. The translated latent samples are then further improved upon through Langevin dynamics, enabling us to obtain higher-quality data samples. TR0N requires no training data nor fine-tuning, yet can achieve a zero-shot FID of 10.9 on MS-COCO, outperforming competing alternatives not only on this metric, but also in sampling speed -- all while retaining a much higher level of generality. Our code is available at https://github.com/layer6ai-labs/tr0n.

Time series data are ubiquitous across a wide range of real-world domains. While real-world time series analysis (TSA) requires human experts to integrate numerical series data with multimodal domain-specific knowledge, most existing TSA models rely solely on numerical data, overlooking the significance of information beyond numerical series. This oversight is due to the untapped potential of textual series data and the absence of a comprehensive, high-quality multimodal dataset. To overcome this obstacle, we introduce Time-MMD, the first multi-domain, multimodal time series dataset covering 9 primary data domains. Time-MMD ensures fine-grained modality alignment, eliminates data contamination, and provides high usability. Additionally, we develop MM-TSFlib, the first multimodal time-series forecasting (TSF) library, seamlessly pipelining multimodal TSF evaluations based on Time-MMD for in-depth analyses. Extensive experiments conducted on Time-MMD through MM-TSFlib demonstrate significant performance enhancements by extending unimodal TSF to multimodality, evidenced by over 15% mean squared error reduction in general, and up to 40% in domains with rich textual data. More importantly, our datasets and library revolutionize broader applications, impacts, research topics to advance TSA. The dataset and library are available at https://github.com/AdityaLab/Time-MMD and https://github.com/AdityaLab/MM-TSFlib.

Audio-language models (ALMs) excel in zero-shot audio classification, a task where models classify previously unseen audio clips at test time by leveraging descriptive natural language prompts. We introduce TSPE (Task-Specific Prompt Ensemble), a simple, training-free hard prompting method that boosts ALEs' zero-shot performance by customizing prompts for diverse audio classification tasks. Rather than using generic template-based prompts like "Sound of a car" we generate context-rich prompts, such as "Sound of a car coming from a tunnel". Specifically, we leverage label information to identify suitable sound attributes, such as "loud" and "feeble", and appropriate sound sources, such as "tunnel" and "street" and incorporate this information into the prompts used by Audio-Language Models (ALMs) for audio classification. Further, to enhance audio-text alignment, we perform prompt ensemble across TSPE-generated task-specific prompts. When evaluated on 12 diverse audio classification datasets, TSPE improves performance across ALMs by showing an absolute improvement of 1.23-16.36% over vanilla zero-shot evaluation.

The advent of pre-trained Vision-Language Models (VLMs) has significantly transformed Continual Learning (CL), mainly due to their zero-shot classification abilities. Such proficiency makes VLMs well-suited for real-world applications, enabling robust performance on novel unseen classes without requiring adaptation. However, fine-tuning remains essential when downstream tasks deviate significantly from the pre-training domain. Prior CL approaches primarily focus on preserving the zero-shot capabilities of VLMs during incremental fine-tuning on a downstream task. We take a step further by devising an approach that transforms preservation into enhancement of the zero-shot capabilities of VLMs. Our approach, named MoDular Embedding Recomposition (MoDER), introduces a modular framework that trains multiple textual experts, each specialized in a single seen class, and stores them in a foundational hub. At inference time, for each unseen class, we query the hub and compose the retrieved experts to synthesize a refined prototype that improves classification. We show the effectiveness of our method across two popular zero-shot incremental protocols, Class-IL and MTIL, comprising a total of 14 datasets. The codebase is available at https://github.com/aimagelab/mammoth.

We propose a multitask pretraining approach ZeroPrompt for zero-shot generalization, focusing on task scaling and zero-shot prompting. While previous models are trained on only a few dozen tasks, we scale to 1,000 tasks for the first time using real-world data. This leads to a crucial discovery that task scaling can be an efficient alternative to model scaling; i.e., the model size has little impact on performance with an extremely large number of tasks. Our results show that task scaling can substantially improve training efficiency by 30 times in FLOPs. Moreover, we present a prompting method that incorporates a genetic algorithm to automatically search for the best prompt for unseen tasks, along with a few other improvements. Empirically, ZeroPrompt substantially improves both the efficiency and the performance of zero-shot learning across a variety of academic and production datasets.

Recent large-scale pre-trained diffusion models have demonstrated a powerful generative ability to produce high-quality videos from detailed text descriptions. However, exerting control over the motion of objects in videos generated by any video diffusion model is a challenging problem. In this paper, we propose a novel zero-shot moving object trajectory control framework, Motion-Zero, to enable a bounding-box-trajectories-controlled text-to-video diffusion model. To this end, an initial noise prior module is designed to provide a position-based prior to improve the stability of the appearance of the moving object and the accuracy of position. In addition, based on the attention map of the U-net, spatial constraints are directly applied to the denoising process of diffusion models, which further ensures the positional and spatial consistency of moving objects during the inference. Furthermore, temporal consistency is guaranteed with a proposed shift temporal attention mechanism. Our method can be flexibly applied to various state-of-the-art video diffusion models without any training process. Extensive experiments demonstrate our proposed method can control the motion trajectories of objects and generate high-quality videos.

Large pre-trained language models (LMs) such as GPT-3 have acquired a surprising ability to perform zero-shot learning. For example, to classify sentiment without any training examples, we can "prompt" the LM with the review and the label description "Does the user like this movie?", and ask whether the next word is "yes" or "no". However, the next word prediction training objective is still misaligned with the target zero-shot learning objective. To address this weakness, we propose meta-tuning, which directly optimizes the zero-shot learning objective by fine-tuning pre-trained language models on a collection of datasets. We focus on classification tasks, and construct the meta-dataset by aggregating 43 existing datasets and annotating 441 label descriptions in a question-answering (QA) format. When evaluated on unseen tasks, meta-tuned models outperform a same-sized QA model and the previous SOTA zero-shot learning system based on natural language inference. Additionally, increasing parameter count from 220M to 770M improves AUC-ROC scores by 6.3%, and we forecast that even larger models would perform better. Therefore, measuring zero-shot learning performance on language models out-of-the-box might underestimate their true potential, and community-wide efforts on aggregating datasets and unifying their formats can help build models that answer prompts better.

Large-scale text-to-image diffusion models achieve unprecedented success in image generation and editing. However, how to extend such success to video editing is unclear. Recent initial attempts at video editing require significant text-to-video data and computation resources for training, which is often not accessible. In this work, we propose vid2vid-zero, a simple yet effective method for zero-shot video editing. Our vid2vid-zero leverages off-the-shelf image diffusion models, and doesn't require training on any video. At the core of our method is a null-text inversion module for text-to-video alignment, a cross-frame modeling module for temporal consistency, and a spatial regularization module for fidelity to the original video. Without any training, we leverage the dynamic nature of the attention mechanism to enable bi-directional temporal modeling at test time. Experiments and analyses show promising results in editing attributes, subjects, places, etc., in real-world videos. Code is made available at https://github.com/baaivision/vid2vid-zero.

Methods for image-to-video generation have achieved impressive, photo-realistic quality. However, adjusting specific elements in generated videos, such as object motion or camera movement, is often a tedious process of trial and error, e.g., involving re-generating videos with different random seeds. Recent techniques address this issue by fine-tuning a pre-trained model to follow conditioning signals, such as bounding boxes or point trajectories. Yet, this fine-tuning procedure can be computationally expensive, and it requires datasets with annotated object motion, which can be difficult to procure. In this work, we introduce SG-I2V, a framework for controllable image-to-video generation that is self-guidedx2013offering zero-shot control by relying solely on the knowledge present in a pre-trained image-to-video diffusion model without the need for fine-tuning or external knowledge. Our zero-shot method outperforms unsupervised baselines while being competitive with supervised models in terms of visual quality and motion fidelity.

This paper presents the outcomes of fine-tuning Mistral 7B, a general-purpose large language model (LLM), for adaptive machine translation (MT). The fine-tuning process involves utilising a combination of zero-shot and one-shot translation prompts within the medical domain. The primary objective is to enhance real-time adaptive MT capabilities of Mistral 7B, enabling it to adapt translations to the required domain at inference time. The results, particularly for Spanish-to-English MT, showcase the efficacy of the fine-tuned model, demonstrating quality improvements in both zero-shot and one-shot translation scenarios, surpassing Mistral 7B's baseline performance. Notably, the fine-tuned Mistral outperforms ChatGPT "gpt-3.5-turbo" in zero-shot translation while achieving comparable one-shot translation quality. Moreover, the zero-shot translation of the fine-tuned Mistral matches NLLB 3.3B's performance, and its one-shot translation quality surpasses that of NLLB 3.3B. These findings emphasise the significance of fine-tuning efficient LLMs like Mistral 7B to yield high-quality zero-shot translations comparable to task-oriented models like NLLB 3.3B. Additionally, the adaptive gains achieved in one-shot translation are comparable to those of commercial LLMs such as ChatGPT. Our experiments demonstrate that, with a relatively small dataset of 20,000 segments that incorporate a mix of zero-shot and one-shot prompts, fine-tuning significantly enhances Mistral's in-context learning ability, especially for real-time adaptive MT.

Large language models (LLMs) have recently been shown to deliver impressive performance in various NLP tasks. To tackle multi-step reasoning tasks, few-shot chain-of-thought (CoT) prompting includes a few manually crafted step-by-step reasoning demonstrations which enable LLMs to explicitly generate reasoning steps and improve their reasoning task accuracy. To eliminate the manual effort, Zero-shot-CoT concatenates the target problem statement with "Let's think step by step" as an input prompt to LLMs. Despite the success of Zero-shot-CoT, it still suffers from three pitfalls: calculation errors, missing-step errors, and semantic misunderstanding errors. To address the missing-step errors, we propose Plan-and-Solve (PS) Prompting. It consists of two components: first, devising a plan to divide the entire task into smaller subtasks, and then carrying out the subtasks according to the plan. To address the calculation errors and improve the quality of generated reasoning steps, we extend PS prompting with more detailed instructions and derive PS+ prompting. We evaluate our proposed prompting strategy on ten datasets across three reasoning problems. The experimental results over GPT-3 show that our proposed zero-shot prompting consistently outperforms Zero-shot-CoT across all datasets by a large margin, is comparable to or exceeds Zero-shot-Program-of-Thought Prompting, and has comparable performance with 8-shot CoT prompting on the math reasoning problem. The code can be found at https://github.com/AGI-Edgerunners/Plan-and-Solve-Prompting.

The Zero-Shot Learning (ZSL) task pertains to the identification of entities or relations in texts that were not seen during training. ZSL has emerged as a critical research area due to the scarcity of labeled data in specific domains, and its applications have grown significantly in recent years. With the advent of large pretrained language models, several novel methods have been proposed, resulting in substantial improvements in ZSL performance. There is a growing demand, both in the research community and industry, for a comprehensive ZSL framework that facilitates the development and accessibility of the latest methods and pretrained models.In this study, we propose a novel ZSL framework called Zshot that aims to address the aforementioned challenges. Our primary objective is to provide a platform that allows researchers to compare different state-of-the-art ZSL methods with standard benchmark datasets. Additionally, we have designed our framework to support the industry with readily available APIs for production under the standard SpaCy NLP pipeline. Our API is extendible and evaluable, moreover, we include numerous enhancements such as boosting the accuracy with pipeline ensembling and visualization utilities available as a SpaCy extension.

This paper explores the image-sharing capability of Large Language Models (LLMs), such as InstructGPT, ChatGPT, and GPT-4, in a zero-shot setting, without the help of visual foundation models. Inspired by the two-stage process of image-sharing in human dialogues, we propose a two-stage framework that allows LLMs to predict potential image-sharing turns and generate related image descriptions using our effective restriction-based prompt template. With extensive experiments, we unlock the image-sharing capability of LLMs in zero-shot prompting, with GPT-4 achieving the best performance. Additionally, we uncover the emergent image-sharing ability in zero-shot prompting, demonstrating the effectiveness of restriction-based prompts in both stages of our framework. Based on this framework, we augment the PhotoChat dataset with images generated by Stable Diffusion at predicted turns, namely PhotoChat++. To our knowledge, this is the first study to assess the image-sharing ability of LLMs in a zero-shot setting without visual foundation models. The source code and the dataset will be released after publication.

Retrained large language models (LLMs) have become extensively used across various sub-disciplines of natural language processing (NLP). In NLP, text classification problems have garnered considerable focus, but still faced with some limitations related to expensive computational cost, time consumption, and robust performance to unseen classes. With the proposal of chain of thought prompting (CoT), LLMs can be implemented using zero-shot learning (ZSL) with the step by step reasoning prompts, instead of conventional question and answer formats. The zero-shot LLMs in the text classification problems can alleviate these limitations by directly utilizing pretrained models to predict both seen and unseen classes. Our research primarily validates the capability of GPT models in text classification. We focus on effectively utilizing prompt strategies to various text classification scenarios. Besides, we compare the performance of zero shot LLMs with other state of the art text classification methods, including traditional machine learning methods, deep learning methods, and ZSL methods. Experimental results demonstrate that the performance of LLMs underscores their effectiveness as zero-shot text classifiers in three of the four datasets analyzed. The proficiency is especially advantageous for small businesses or teams that may not have extensive knowledge in text classification.

Large language models have recently been shown to attain reasonable zero-shot generalization on a diverse set of tasks (Brown et al., 2020). It has been hypothesized that this is a consequence of implicit multitask learning in language models' pretraining (Radford et al., 2019). Can zero-shot generalization instead be directly induced by explicit multitask learning? To test this question at scale, we develop a system for easily mapping any natural language tasks into a human-readable prompted form. We convert a large set of supervised datasets, each with multiple prompts with diverse wording. These prompted datasets allow for benchmarking the ability of a model to perform completely held-out tasks. We fine-tune a pretrained encoder-decoder model (Raffel et al., 2020; Lester et al., 2021) on this multitask mixture covering a wide variety of tasks. The model attains strong zero-shot performance on several standard datasets, often outperforming models up to 16x its size. Further, our approach attains strong performance on a subset of tasks from the BIG-bench benchmark, outperforming models up to 6x its size. All trained models are available at https://github.com/bigscience-workshop/t-zero and all prompts are available at https://github.com/bigscience-workshop/promptsource.

Existing zero-shot text-to-speech (TTS) systems are typically designed to process complete sentences and are constrained by the maximum duration for which they have been trained. However, in many streaming applications, texts arrive continuously in short chunks, necessitating instant responses from the system. We identify the essential capabilities required for chunk-level streaming and introduce LiveSpeech 2, a stream-aware model that supports infinitely long speech generation, text-audio stream synchronization, and seamless transitions between short speech chunks. To achieve these, we propose (1) adopting Mamba, a class of sequence modeling distinguished by linear-time decoding, which is augmented by cross-attention mechanisms for conditioning, (2) utilizing rotary positional embeddings in the computation of cross-attention, enabling the model to process an infinite text stream by sliding a window, and (3) decoding with semantic guidance, a technique that aligns speech with the transcript during inference with minimal overhead. Experimental results demonstrate that our models are competitive with state-of-the-art language model-based zero-shot TTS models, while also providing flexibility to support a wide range of streaming scenarios.

Multi-speaker text-to-speech (TTS) using a few adaption data is a challenge in practical applications. To address that, we propose a zero-shot multi-speaker TTS, named nnSpeech, that could synthesis a new speaker voice without fine-tuning and using only one adaption utterance. Compared with using a speaker representation module to extract the characteristics of new speakers, our method bases on a speaker-guided conditional variational autoencoder and can generate a variable Z, which contains both speaker characteristics and content information. The latent variable Z distribution is approximated by another variable conditioned on reference mel-spectrogram and phoneme. Experiments on the English corpus, Mandarin corpus, and cross-dataset proves that our model could generate natural and similar speech with only one adaption speech.

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) excel at numerical forecasting but operate as black boxes lacking qualitative reasoning. Conversely, applying LLMs directly to temporal data introduces a modality gap: text tokenizers fragment continuous numerical values, degrading mathematical relationships and exploding sequence lengths, leading to computational overhead. To resolve this, we introduce STRIDE (Strategic Time-series Reasoning Injected via Distilled Embeddings), a novel framework natively integrating LLM reasoning into the continuous embedding space of TSFMs. Instead of discrete tokens, STRIDE distills reasoning traces into a lightweight LLM, dynamically projecting its mean-pooled hidden states as a cross-modal prior into the target numerical encoder. The architecture is jointly optimized using cross-entropy and quantile losses. Evaluations demonstrate STRIDE establishes state-of-the-art numerical forecasting on GIFT-Eval (0.674 MASE, 0.454 CRPS) compared to TSFMs and exhibits superior in-domain and out-of-domain numerical as well as reasoning performance on TFRBench. Specifically, STRIDE acts as a plug-and-play enhancement, consistently improving diverse TSFMs (e.g., Chronos-2, Timer-S1) across various LLM configurations. Thus, injecting semantic reasoning as a continuous prior equips TSFMs with human-interpretable reasoning while fundamentally improving predictive accuracy.

Conversational NLU providers often need to scale to thousands of intent-classification models where new customers often face the cold-start problem. Scaling to so many customers puts a constraint on storage space as well. In this paper, we explore four different zero and few-shot intent classification approaches with this low-resource constraint: 1) domain adaptation, 2) data augmentation, 3) zero-shot intent classification using descriptions large language models (LLMs), and 4) parameter-efficient fine-tuning of instruction-finetuned language models. Our results show that all these approaches are effective to different degrees in low-resource settings. Parameter-efficient fine-tuning using T-few recipe (Liu et al., 2022) on Flan-T5 (Chang et al., 2022) yields the best performance even with just one sample per intent. We also show that the zero-shot method of prompting LLMs using intent descriptions

Enabling large language models (LLMs) to perform tasks in zero-shot has been an appealing goal owing to its labor-saving (i.e., requiring no task-specific annotations); as such, zero-shot prompting approaches also enjoy better task generalizability. To improve LLMs' zero-shot performance, prior work has focused on devising more effective task instructions (e.g., ``let's think step by step'' ). However, we argue that, in order for an LLM to solve them correctly in zero-shot, individual test instances need more carefully designed and customized instructions. To this end, we propose PRoMPTd, an approach that rewrites the task prompt for each individual test input to be more specific, unambiguous, and complete, so as to provide better guidance to the task LLM. We evaluated PRoMPTd on eight datasets covering tasks including arithmetics, logical reasoning, and code generation, using GPT-4 as the task LLM. Notably, PRoMPTd achieves an absolute improvement of around 10% on the complex MATH dataset and 5% on the code generation task on HumanEval, outperforming conventional zero-shot methods. In addition, we also showed that the rewritten prompt can provide better interpretability of how the LLM resolves each test instance, which can potentially be leveraged as a defense mechanism against adversarial prompting. The source code and dataset can be obtained from https://github.com/salokr/PRoMPTd

In-context learning with Large Language Models (LLMs) has emerged as a promising avenue of research in Dialog State Tracking (DST). However, the best-performing in-context learning methods involve retrieving and adding similar examples to the prompt, requiring access to labeled training data. Procuring such training data for a wide range of domains and applications is time-consuming, expensive, and, at times, infeasible. While zero-shot learning requires no training data, it significantly lags behind the few-shot setup. Thus, `Can we efficiently generate synthetic data for any dialogue schema to enable few-shot prompting?' Addressing this question, we propose \method, a data generation framework tailored for DST, utilizing LLMs. Our approach only requires the dialogue schema and a few hand-crafted dialogue templates to synthesize natural, coherent, and free-flowing dialogues with DST annotations. Few-shot learning using data from {\method} results in 4-5% improvement in Joint Goal Accuracy over the zero-shot baseline on MultiWOZ 2.1 and 2.4. Remarkably, our few-shot learning approach recovers nearly 98% of the performance compared to the few-shot setup using human-annotated training data. Our synthetic data and code can be accessed at https://github.com/apple/ml-synthdst

Generating high-quality stereo videos that mimic human binocular vision requires maintaining consistent depth perception and temporal coherence across frames. While diffusion models have advanced image and video synthesis, generating high-quality stereo videos remains challenging due to the difficulty of maintaining consistent temporal and spatial coherence between left and right views. We introduce StereoCrafter-Zero, a novel framework for zero-shot stereo video generation that leverages video diffusion priors without the need for paired training data. Key innovations include a noisy restart strategy to initialize stereo-aware latents and an iterative refinement process that progressively harmonizes the latent space, addressing issues like temporal flickering and view inconsistencies. Comprehensive evaluations, including quantitative metrics and user studies, demonstrate that StereoCrafter-Zero produces high-quality stereo videos with improved depth consistency and temporal smoothness, even when depth estimations are imperfect. Our framework is robust and adaptable across various diffusion models, setting a new benchmark for zero-shot stereo video generation and enabling more immersive visual experiences. Our code can be found in~https://github.com/shijianjian/StereoCrafter-Zero.

This paper introduces Embarrassingly Easy Text-to-Speech (E2 TTS), a fully non-autoregressive zero-shot text-to-speech system that offers human-level naturalness and state-of-the-art speaker similarity and intelligibility. In the E2 TTS framework, the text input is converted into a character sequence with filler tokens. The flow-matching-based mel spectrogram generator is then trained based on the audio infilling task. Unlike many previous works, it does not require additional components (e.g., duration model, grapheme-to-phoneme) or complex techniques (e.g., monotonic alignment search). Despite its simplicity, E2 TTS achieves state-of-the-art zero-shot TTS capabilities that are comparable to or surpass previous works, including Voicebox and NaturalSpeech 3. The simplicity of E2 TTS also allows for flexibility in the input representation. We propose several variants of E2 TTS to improve usability during inference. See https://aka.ms/e2tts/ for demo samples.

Knowledge distillation trains a smaller student model to match the output distribution of a larger teacher to maximize the end-task performance under computational constraints. However, existing literature on language model distillation primarily focuses on compressing encoder-only models that are then specialized by task-specific supervised finetuning. We need to rethink this setup for more recent large language models with tens to hundreds of billions of parameters. Task-specific finetuning is impractical at this scale, and model performance is often measured using zero/few-shot prompting. Thus, in this work, we advocate for task-agnostic zero-shot evaluated distillation for large language models without access to end-task finetuning data. We propose a teacher-free task-agnostic distillation method, which uses a truncated version of the larger model for initialization, and continues pretraining this model using a language modeling objective. Our teacher-free method shines in a distillation regime where it is infeasible to fit both the student and teacher into the GPU memory. Despite its simplicity, our method can effectively reduce the model size by 50\%, matching or outperforming the vanilla distillation method on perplexity and accuracy on 13 zero-shot end-tasks while being 1.5x computationally efficient.

Spurred by advancements in scale, large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated the ability to perform a variety of natural language processing (NLP) tasks zero-shot -- i.e., without adaptation on downstream data. Recently, the debut of ChatGPT has drawn a great deal of attention from the natural language processing (NLP) community due to the fact that it can generate high-quality responses to human input and self-correct previous mistakes based on subsequent conversations. However, it is not yet known whether ChatGPT can serve as a generalist model that can perform many NLP tasks zero-shot. In this work, we empirically analyze the zero-shot learning ability of ChatGPT by evaluating it on 20 popular NLP datasets covering 7 representative task categories. With extensive empirical studies, we demonstrate both the effectiveness and limitations of the current version of ChatGPT. We find that ChatGPT performs well on many tasks favoring reasoning capabilities (e.g., arithmetic reasoning) while it still faces challenges when solving specific tasks such as sequence tagging. We additionally provide in-depth analysis through qualitative case studies.

The recent emergence of Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) has significantly advanced multi-step forecasting performance, enabling accurate predictions over extended future horizons. However, existing TSFMs often suffer from significantly inherent uncertainty, which typically manifests as derived forecast branches emerging at each time step and spreading to subsequent steps; different forecast branches often exhibit varying forecasting performance, thereby undermining the credibility of TSFM forecasts. In this paper, we propose the Slicing-Graphing-Alignment (SGA) method to quantify the uncertainty of multi-step TSFM forecasts. The proposed SGA first characterizes the topology of all potential forecast branches using a directed acyclic graph, such that the graph complexity bounds the uncertainty of multi-step forecasts, and then precisely measures the graph complexity by integrating both topological information and TSFM-inherent stochasticity. Experimental results conducted on 11 TSFMs and 27 datasets demonstrate that (i) SGA achieves the best performance when ranking predictive errors with uncertainty estimates; (ii) SGA works with a more extensive and more precise sampling coverage than those of existing UQ methods, deriving a quantification mechanism fundamentally different from those of established ones; and (iii) larger model scales of TSFMs correlate with lower uncertainty estimates of multi-step forecasts, suggesting another empirical scaling law for uncertainty quantification of multi-step TSFM forecasts.

We introduce HTLM, a hyper-text language model trained on a large-scale web crawl. Modeling hyper-text has a number of advantages: (1) it is easily gathered at scale, (2) it provides rich document-level and end-task-adjacent supervision (e.g. class and id attributes often encode document category information), and (3) it allows for new structured prompting that follows the established semantics of HTML (e.g. to do zero-shot summarization by infilling title tags for a webpage that contains the input text). We show that pretraining with a BART-style denoising loss directly on simplified HTML provides highly effective transfer for a wide range of end tasks and supervision levels. HTLM matches or exceeds the performance of comparably sized text-only LMs for zero-shot prompting and fine-tuning for classification benchmarks, while also setting new state-of-the-art performance levels for zero-shot summarization. We also find that hyper-text prompts provide more value to HTLM, in terms of data efficiency, than plain text prompts do for existing LMs, and that HTLM is highly effective at auto-prompting itself, by simply generating the most likely hyper-text formatting for any available training data. We will release all code and models to support future HTLM research.

Pretrained multilingual models are able to perform cross-lingual transfer in a zero-shot setting, even for languages unseen during pretraining. However, prior work evaluating performance on unseen languages has largely been limited to low-level, syntactic tasks, and it remains unclear if zero-shot learning of high-level, semantic tasks is possible for unseen languages. To explore this question, we present AmericasNLI, an extension of XNLI (Conneau et al., 2018) to 10 indigenous languages of the Americas. We conduct experiments with XLM-R, testing multiple zero-shot and translation-based approaches. Additionally, we explore model adaptation via continued pretraining and provide an analysis of the dataset by considering hypothesis-only models. We find that XLM-R's zero-shot performance is poor for all 10 languages, with an average performance of 38.62%. Continued pretraining offers improvements, with an average accuracy of 44.05%. Surprisingly, training on poorly translated data by far outperforms all other methods with an accuracy of 48.72%.

Despite rapid progress in increasing the language coverage of automatic speech recognition, the field is still far from covering all languages with a known writing script. Recent work showed promising results with a zero-shot approach requiring only a small amount of text data, however, accuracy heavily depends on the quality of the used phonemizer which is often weak for unseen languages. In this paper, we present MMS Zero-shot a conceptually simpler approach based on romanization and an acoustic model trained on data in 1,078 different languages or three orders of magnitude more than prior art. MMS Zero-shot reduces the average character error rate by a relative 46% over 100 unseen languages compared to the best previous work. Moreover, the error rate of our approach is only 2.5x higher compared to in-domain supervised baselines, while our approach uses no labeled data for the evaluation languages at all.

Benefiting from prompt tuning, recent years have witnessed the promising performance of pre-trained vision-language models, e.g., CLIP, on versatile downstream tasks. In this paper, we focus on a particular setting of learning adaptive prompts on the fly for each test sample from an unseen new domain, which is known as test-time prompt tuning (TPT). Existing TPT methods typically rely on data augmentation and confidence selection. However, conventional data augmentation techniques, e.g., random resized crops, suffers from the lack of data diversity, while entropy-based confidence selection alone is not sufficient to guarantee prediction fidelity. To address these issues, we propose a novel TPT method, named DiffTPT, which leverages pre-trained diffusion models to generate diverse and informative new data. Specifically, we incorporate augmented data by both conventional method and pre-trained stable diffusion to exploit their respective merits, improving the models ability to adapt to unknown new test data. Moreover, to ensure the prediction fidelity of generated data, we introduce a cosine similarity-based filtration technique to select the generated data with higher similarity to the single test sample. Our experiments on test datasets with distribution shifts and unseen categories demonstrate that DiffTPT improves the zero-shot accuracy by an average of 5.13\% compared to the state-of-the-art TPT method. Our code and models will be publicly released.

Recent text-to-video generation approaches rely on computationally heavy training and require large-scale video datasets. In this paper, we introduce a new task of zero-shot text-to-video generation and propose a low-cost approach (without any training or optimization) by leveraging the power of existing text-to-image synthesis methods (e.g., Stable Diffusion), making them suitable for the video domain. Our key modifications include (i) enriching the latent codes of the generated frames with motion dynamics to keep the global scene and the background time consistent; and (ii) reprogramming frame-level self-attention using a new cross-frame attention of each frame on the first frame, to preserve the context, appearance, and identity of the foreground object. Experiments show that this leads to low overhead, yet high-quality and remarkably consistent video generation. Moreover, our approach is not limited to text-to-video synthesis but is also applicable to other tasks such as conditional and content-specialized video generation, and Video Instruct-Pix2Pix, i.e., instruction-guided video editing. As experiments show, our method performs comparably or sometimes better than recent approaches, despite not being trained on additional video data. Our code will be open sourced at: https://github.com/Picsart-AI-Research/Text2Video-Zero .

Natural Language Generation (NLG) accepts input data in the form of images, videos, or text and generates corresponding natural language text as output. Existing NLG methods mainly adopt a supervised approach and rely heavily on coupled data-to-text pairs. However, for many targeted scenarios and for non-English languages, sufficient quantities of labeled data are often not available. To relax the dependency on labeled data of downstream tasks, we propose an intuitive and effective zero-shot learning framework, ZeroNLG, which can deal with multiple NLG tasks, including image-to-text (image captioning), video-to-text (video captioning), and text-to-text (neural machine translation), across English, Chinese, German, and French within a unified framework. ZeroNLG does not require any labeled downstream pairs for training. During training, ZeroNLG (i) projects different domains (across modalities and languages) to corresponding coordinates in a shared common latent space; (ii) bridges different domains by aligning their corresponding coordinates in this space; and (iii) builds an unsupervised multilingual auto-encoder to learn to generate text by reconstructing the input text given its coordinate in shared latent space. Consequently, during inference, based on the data-to-text pipeline, ZeroNLG can generate target sentences across different languages given the coordinate of input data in the common space. Within this unified framework, given visual (imaging or video) data as input, ZeroNLG can perform zero-shot visual captioning; given textual sentences as input, ZeroNLG can perform zero-shot machine translation. We present the results of extensive experiments on twelve NLG tasks, showing that, without using any labeled downstream pairs for training, ZeroNLG generates high-quality and believable outputs and significantly outperforms existing zero-shot methods.

Multi-modal foundation models such as CLIP have showcased impressive zero-shot capabilities. However, their applicability in resource-constrained environments is limited due to their large number of parameters and high inference time. While existing approaches have scaled down the entire CLIP architecture, we focus on training smaller variants of the image encoder, which suffices for efficient zero-shot classification. The use of synthetic data has shown promise in distilling representations from larger teachers, resulting in strong few-shot and linear probe performance. However, we find that this approach surprisingly fails in true zero-shot settings when using contrastive losses. We identify the exploitation of spurious features as being responsible for poor generalization between synthetic and real data. However, by using the image feature-based L2 distillation loss, we mitigate these problems and train students that achieve zero-shot performance which on four domain-specific datasets is on-par with a ViT-B/32 teacher model trained on DataCompXL, while featuring up to 92% fewer parameters.

Generating high-quality videos from complex temporal descriptions that contain multiple sequential actions is a key unsolved problem. Existing methods are constrained by an inherent trade-off: using multiple short prompts fed sequentially into the model improves action fidelity but compromises temporal consistency, while a single complex prompt preserves consistency at the cost of prompt-following capability. We attribute this problem to two primary causes: 1) temporal misalignment between video content and the prompt, and 2) conflicting attention coupling between motion-related visual objects and their associated text conditions. To address these challenges, we propose a novel, training-free attention mechanism, Temporal-wise Separable Attention (TS-Attn), which dynamically rearranges attention distribution to ensure temporal awareness and global coherence in multi-event scenarios. TS-Attn can be seamlessly integrated into various pre-trained text-to-video models, boosting StoryEval-Bench scores by 33.5% and 16.4% on Wan2.1-T2V-14B and Wan2.2-T2V-A14B with only a 2% increase in inference time. It also supports plug-and-play usage across models for multi-event image-to-video generation. The source code and project page are available at https://github.com/Hong-yu-Zhang/TS-Attn.