Daily Papers

LiDAR-based SLAM is a core technology for autonomous vehicles and robots. One key contribution of this work to 3D LiDAR SLAM and localization is a fierce defense of view-based maps (pose graphs with time-stamped sensor readings) as the fundamental representation of maps. As will be shown, they allow for the greatest flexibility, enabling the posterior generation of arbitrary metric maps optimized for particular tasks, e.g. obstacle avoidance, real-time localization. Moreover, this work introduces a new framework in which mapping pipelines can be defined without coding, defining the connections of a network of reusable blocks much like deep-learning networks are designed by connecting layers of standardized elements. We also introduce tightly-coupled estimation of linear and angular velocity vectors within the Iterative Closest Point (ICP)-like optimizer, leading to superior robustness against aggressive motion profiles without the need for an IMU. Extensive experimental validation reveals that the proposal compares well to, or improves, former state-of-the-art (SOTA) LiDAR odometry systems, while also successfully mapping some hard sequences where others diverge. A proposed self-adaptive configuration has been used, without parameter changes, for all 3D LiDAR datasets with sensors between 16 and 128 rings, and has been extensively tested on 83 sequences over more than 250~km of automotive, hand-held, airborne, and quadruped LiDAR datasets, both indoors and outdoors. The system flexibility is demonstrated with additional configurations for 2D LiDARs and for building 3D NDT-like maps. The framework is open-sourced online: https://github.com/MOLAorg/mola

Reliable multi-agent trajectory prediction is crucial for the safe planning and control of autonomous systems. Compared with single-agent cases, the major challenge in simultaneously processing multiple agents lies in modeling complex social interactions caused by various driving intentions and road conditions. Previous methods typically leverage graph-based message propagation or attention mechanism to encapsulate such interactions in the format of marginal probabilistic distributions. However, it is inherently sub-optimal. In this paper, we propose IPCC-TP, a novel relevance-aware module based on Incremental Pearson Correlation Coefficient to improve multi-agent interaction modeling. IPCC-TP learns pairwise joint Gaussian Distributions through the tightly-coupled estimation of the means and covariances according to interactive incremental movements. Our module can be conveniently embedded into existing multi-agent prediction methods to extend original motion distribution decoders. Extensive experiments on nuScenes and Argoverse 2 datasets demonstrate that IPCC-TP improves the performance of baselines by a large margin.

We present KM-ViPE (Knowledge Mapping Video Pose Engine), a real-time open-vocabulary SLAM framework for uncalibrated monocular cameras in dynamic environments. Unlike systems requiring depth sensors and offline calibration, KM-ViPE operates directly on raw RGB streams, making it ideal for ego-centric applications and harvesting internet-scale video data for training. KM-ViPE tightly couples DINO visual features with geometric constraints through a high-level features based adaptive robust kernel that handles both moving objects and movable static objects (e.g., moving furniture in ego-centric views). The system performs simultaneous online localization and open-vocabulary semantic mapping by fusing geometric and deep visual features aligned with language embeddings. Our results are competitive with state-of-the-art approaches, while existing solutions either operate offline, need depth data and/or odometry estimation, or lack dynamic scene robustness. KM-ViPE benefits from internet-scale training and uniquely combines online operation, uncalibrated monocular input, and robust handling of dynamic scenes, which makes it a good fit for autonomous robotics and AR/VR applications and advances practical spatial intelligence capabilities for embodied AI.

Bokeh and monocular depth estimation are tightly coupled through the same lens imaging geometry, yet current methods exploit this connection in incomplete ways. High-quality bokeh rendering pipelines typically depend on noisy depth maps, which amplify estimation errors into visible artifacts, while modern monocular metric depth models still struggle on weakly textured, distant and geometrically ambiguous regions where defocus cues are most informative. We introduce BokehDepth, a two-stage framework that decouples bokeh synthesis from depth prediction and treats defocus as an auxiliary supervision-free geometric cue. In Stage-1, a physically guided controllable bokeh generator, built on a powerful pretrained image editing backbone, produces depth-free bokeh stacks with calibrated bokeh strength from a single sharp input. In Stage-2, a lightweight defocus-aware aggregation module plugs into existing monocular depth encoders, fuses features along the defocus dimension, and exposes stable depth-sensitive variations while leaving downstream decoder unchanged. Across challenging benchmarks, BokehDepth improves visual fidelity over depth-map-based bokeh baselines and consistently boosts the metric accuracy and robustness of strong monocular depth foundation models.

Event-based cameras are ideal for line-based motion estimation, since they predominantly respond to edges in the scene. However, accurately determining the camera displacement based on events continues to be an open problem. This is because line feature extraction and dynamics estimation are tightly coupled when using event cameras, and no precise model is currently available for describing the complex structures generated by lines in the space-time volume of events. We solve this problem by deriving the correct non-linear parametrization of such manifolds, which we term eventails, and demonstrate its application to event-based linear motion estimation, with known rotation from an Inertial Measurement Unit. Using this parametrization, we introduce a novel minimal 5-point solver that jointly estimates line parameters and linear camera velocity projections, which can be fused into a single, averaged linear velocity when considering multiple lines. We demonstrate on both synthetic and real data that our solver generates more stable relative motion estimates than other methods while capturing more inliers than clustering based on spatio-temporal planes. In particular, our method consistently achieves a 100% success rate in estimating linear velocity where existing closed-form solvers only achieve between 23% and 70%. The proposed eventails contribute to a better understanding of spatio-temporal event-generated geometries and we thus believe it will become a core building block of future event-based motion estimation algorithms.

Thermal imaging is resilient to adverse conditions, such as intense illumination, low-light operation, and fog, and can therefore mitigate odometry degradation when visible-spectrum imagery becomes unreliable. Nevertheless, most thermal cameras employ automatic gain control (AGC), and thermal images often present low global contrast despite containing informative edge structures. These characteristics undermine brightness constancy and cause conventional optical flow tracking-based odometry pipelines that fundamentally rely on the brightness constancy assumption across consecutive frames. To address these issues, we propose a general LiDAR-Inertial-Thermal SLAM system that accommodates both visible-light and thermal cameras. PL-LIT combines an online photometric calibration module with a deep neural network for point-line feature extraction, enabling more stable and repeatable thermal tracking. For state estimation, we design a tightly coupled LiDAR-Inertial-Thermal formulation within an Error-State Iterated Kalman Filter (ESIKF). We further introduce a line-feature constraint scheme ensuring the reliability of geometric constraints across varying thermal appearances. In addition, PL-LIT builds a probabilistic thermal-intensity voxel map, which supports real-time thermal anomaly detection. Extensive experiments demonstrate that PL-LIT exhibits generality and robustness in visible-light environments, achieves state-of-the-art performance on long-range thermal infrared datasets, and provides practical safety inspection functionality based on thermographic mapping.

Efficient, accurate, and flexible relative localization is crucial in air-ground collaborative tasks. However, current approaches for robot relative localization are primarily realized in the form of distributed multi-robot SLAM systems with the same sensor configuration, which are tightly coupled with the state estimation of all robots, limiting both flexibility and accuracy. To this end, we fully leverage the high capacity of Unmanned Ground Vehicle (UGV) to integrate multiple sensors, enabling a semi-distributed cross-modal air-ground relative localization framework. In this work, both the UGV and the Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) independently perform SLAM while extracting deep learning-based keypoints and global descriptors, which decouples the relative localization from the state estimation of all agents. The UGV employs a local Bundle Adjustment (BA) with LiDAR, camera, and an IMU to rapidly obtain accurate relative pose estimates. The BA process adopts sparse keypoint optimization and is divided into two stages: First, optimizing camera poses interpolated from LiDAR-Inertial Odometry (LIO), followed by estimating the relative camera poses between the UGV and UAV. Additionally, we implement an incremental loop closure detection algorithm using deep learning-based descriptors to maintain and retrieve keyframes efficiently. Experimental results demonstrate that our method achieves outstanding performance in both accuracy and efficiency. Unlike traditional multi-robot SLAM approaches that transmit images or point clouds, our method only transmits keypoint pixels and their descriptors, effectively constraining the communication bandwidth under 0.3 Mbps. Codes and data will be publicly available on https://github.com/Ascbpiac/cross-model-relative-localization.git.

How can we perform efficient inference and learning in directed probabilistic models, in the presence of continuous latent variables with intractable posterior distributions, and large datasets? We introduce a stochastic variational inference and learning algorithm that scales to large datasets and, under some mild differentiability conditions, even works in the intractable case. Our contributions are two-fold. First, we show that a reparameterization of the variational lower bound yields a lower bound estimator that can be straightforwardly optimized using standard stochastic gradient methods. Second, we show that for i.i.d. datasets with continuous latent variables per datapoint, posterior inference can be made especially efficient by fitting an approximate inference model (also called a recognition model) to the intractable posterior using the proposed lower bound estimator. Theoretical advantages are reflected in experimental results.

We introduce a multi-fidelity estimator of covariance matrices that employs the log-Euclidean geometry of the symmetric positive-definite manifold. The estimator fuses samples from a hierarchy of data sources of differing fidelities and costs for variance reduction while guaranteeing definiteness, in contrast with previous approaches. The new estimator makes covariance estimation tractable in applications where simulation or data collection is expensive; to that end, we develop an optimal sample allocation scheme that minimizes the mean-squared error of the estimator given a fixed budget. Guaranteed definiteness is crucial to metric learning, data assimilation, and other downstream tasks. Evaluations of our approach using data from physical applications (heat conduction, fluid dynamics) demonstrate more accurate metric learning and speedups of more than one order of magnitude compared to benchmarks.

The choice of approximate posterior distribution is one of the core problems in variational inference. Most applications of variational inference employ simple families of posterior approximations in order to allow for efficient inference, focusing on mean-field or other simple structured approximations. This restriction has a significant impact on the quality of inferences made using variational methods. We introduce a new approach for specifying flexible, arbitrarily complex and scalable approximate posterior distributions. Our approximations are distributions constructed through a normalizing flow, whereby a simple initial density is transformed into a more complex one by applying a sequence of invertible transformations until a desired level of complexity is attained. We use this view of normalizing flows to develop categories of finite and infinitesimal flows and provide a unified view of approaches for constructing rich posterior approximations. We demonstrate that the theoretical advantages of having posteriors that better match the true posterior, combined with the scalability of amortized variational approaches, provides a clear improvement in performance and applicability of variational inference.

We address the problem of learning the dynamics of an unknown non-parametric system linking a target and a feature time series. The feature time series is measured on a sparse and irregular grid, while we have access to only a few points of the target time series. Once learned, we can use these dynamics to predict values of the target from the previous values of the feature time series. We frame this task as learning the solution map of a controlled differential equation (CDE). By leveraging the rich theory of signatures, we are able to cast this non-linear problem as a high-dimensional linear regression. We provide an oracle bound on the prediction error which exhibits explicit dependencies on the individual-specific sampling schemes. Our theoretical results are illustrated by simulations which show that our method outperforms existing algorithms for recovering the full time series while being computationally cheap. We conclude by demonstrating its potential on real-world epidemiological data.

The field of multi-object tracking has recently seen a renewed interest in the good old schema of tracking-by-detection, as its simplicity and strong priors spare it from the complex design and painful babysitting of tracking-by-attention approaches. In view of this, we aim at extending tracking-by-detection to multi-modal settings, where a comprehensive cost has to be computed from heterogeneous information e.g., 2D motion cues, visual appearance, and pose estimates. More precisely, we follow a case study where a rough estimate of 3D information is also available and must be merged with other traditional metrics (e.g., the IoU). To achieve that, recent approaches resort to either simple rules or complex heuristics to balance the contribution of each cost. However, i) they require careful tuning of tailored hyperparameters on a hold-out set, and ii) they imply these costs to be independent, which does not hold in reality. We address these issues by building upon an elegant probabilistic formulation, which considers the cost of a candidate association as the negative log-likelihood yielded by a deep density estimator, trained to model the conditional joint probability distribution of correct associations. Our experiments, conducted on both simulated and real benchmarks, show that our approach consistently enhances the performance of several tracking-by-detection algorithms.

Combining discrete probability distributions and combinatorial optimization problems with neural network components has numerous applications but poses several challenges. We propose Implicit Maximum Likelihood Estimation (I-MLE), a framework for end-to-end learning of models combining discrete exponential family distributions and differentiable neural components. I-MLE is widely applicable as it only requires the ability to compute the most probable states and does not rely on smooth relaxations. The framework encompasses several approaches such as perturbation-based implicit differentiation and recent methods to differentiate through black-box combinatorial solvers. We introduce a novel class of noise distributions for approximating marginals via perturb-and-MAP. Moreover, we show that I-MLE simplifies to maximum likelihood estimation when used in some recently studied learning settings that involve combinatorial solvers. Experiments on several datasets suggest that I-MLE is competitive with and often outperforms existing approaches which rely on problem-specific relaxations.

The high cost of fine-tuning LLMs poses a significant economic barrier; pre-hoc performance prediction offers a critical solution to substantially reduce this expense. However, the theoretical limits of pre-hoc performance prediction remain unexplored. We formulate it as a stochastic estimation problem under information constraints, decomposing prediction risk into two components: an intrinsic limit (static data-model compatibility) and a reducible optimization variance. We prove that optimization variance admits a necessary lower bound on its decay rate, implying fundamental constraints on how quickly uncertainty dissipates, regardless of the predictor used. Based on these dynamics, we derive a budget-optimal probing principle and introduce a predictability phase diagram that organizes tasks into three distinct regimes: Static-Sufficient, Dynamic-Critical, and Noise-Dominant. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world benchmarks validate these theoretical regimes and demonstrate the efficiency of our probing strategy.

We investigate stochastic combinatorial semi-bandits, where the entire joint distribution of outcomes impacts the complexity of the problem instance (unlike in the standard bandits). Typical distributions considered depend on specific parameter values, whose prior knowledge is required in theory but quite difficult to estimate in practice; an example is the commonly assumed sub-Gaussian family. We alleviate this issue by instead considering a new general family of sub-exponential distributions, which contains bounded and Gaussian ones. We prove a new lower bound on the expected regret on this family, that is parameterized by the unknown covariance matrix of outcomes, a tighter quantity than the sub-Gaussian matrix. We then construct an algorithm that uses covariance estimates, and provide a tight asymptotic analysis of the regret. Finally, we apply and extend our results to the family of sparse outcomes, which has applications in many recommender systems.

Mutual information (MI) is a fundamental measure of statistical dependence between two variables, yet accurate estimation from finite data remains notoriously difficult. No estimator is universally reliable, and common approaches fail in the high-dimensional, undersampled regimes typical of modern experiments. Recent machine learning-based estimators show promise, but their accuracy depends sensitively on dataset size, structure, and hyperparameters, with no accepted tests to detect failures. We close these gaps through a systematic evaluation of classical and neural MI estimators across standard benchmarks and new synthetic datasets tailored to challenging high-dimensional, undersampled regimes. We contribute: (i) a practical protocol for reliable MI estimation with explicit checks for statistical consistency; (ii) confidence intervals (error bars around estimates) that existing neural MI estimator do not provide; and (iii) a new class of probabilistic critics designed for high-dimensional, high-information settings. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our protocol with computational experiments, showing that it consistently matches or surpasses existing methods while uniquely quantifying its own reliability. We show that reliable MI estimation is sometimes achievable even in severely undersampled, high-dimensional datasets, provided they admit accurate low-dimensional representations. This broadens the scope of applicability of neural MI estimators and clarifies when such estimators can be trusted.

Bayesian filtering approximates the true underlying behavior of a time-varying system by inverting an explicit generative model to convert noisy measurements into state estimates. This process typically requires either storage, inversion, and multiplication of large matrices or Monte Carlo estimation, neither of which are practical in high-dimensional state spaces such as the weight spaces of artificial neural networks. Here, we frame the standard Bayesian filtering problem as optimization over a time-varying objective. Instead of maintaining matrices for the filtering equations or simulating particles, we specify an optimizer that defines the Bayesian filter implicitly. In the linear-Gaussian setting, we show that every Kalman filter has an equivalent formulation using K steps of gradient descent. In the nonlinear setting, our experiments demonstrate that our framework results in filters that are effective, robust, and scalable to high-dimensional systems, comparing well against the standard toolbox of Bayesian filtering solutions. We suggest that it is easier to fine-tune an optimizer than it is to specify the correct filtering equations, making our framework an attractive option for high-dimensional filtering problems.

We seek to understand fundamental tradeoffs between the accuracy of prior information that a learner has on a given problem and its learning performance. We introduce the notion of prioritized risk, which differs from traditional notions of minimax and Bayes risk by allowing us to study such fundamental tradeoffs in settings where reality does not necessarily conform to the learner's prior. We present a general reduction-based approach for extending classical minimax lower-bound techniques in order to lower bound the prioritized risk for statistical estimation problems. We also introduce a novel generalization of Fano's inequality (which may be of independent interest) for lower bounding the prioritized risk in more general settings involving unbounded losses. We illustrate the ability of our framework to provide insights into tradeoffs between prior information and learning performance for problems in estimation, regression, and reinforcement learning.

Many problems in machine learning are naturally expressed in the language of undirected graphical models. Here, we propose black-box learning and inference algorithms for undirected models that optimize a variational approximation to the log-likelihood of the model. Central to our approach is an upper bound on the log-partition function parametrized by a function q that we express as a flexible neural network. Our bound makes it possible to track the partition function during learning, to speed-up sampling, and to train a broad class of hybrid directed/undirected models via a unified variational inference framework. We empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on several popular generative modeling datasets.

A representation that scrambles the true degrees of freedom of the world cannot support reliable planning or compositional generalization. We prove that LeJEPA (alignment plus Gaussian regularization) linearly recovers the world's latent variables from nonlinear observations, a property known as linear identifiability, in a broad class of worlds where latents evolve under stationary, additive-noise transitions. Our main result is that among all such worlds, the Gaussian is the unique latent distribution for which this guarantee holds. The forward direction rests on a spectral decomposition in which each degree of nonlinearity is strictly penalized by alignment, making the linear map the optimum; the converse rules out every non-Gaussian alternative. We further prove an approximate identifiability result where the guarantee degrades gracefully, and show that linear, orthogonal identifiability enables optimal latent-space planning. We validate the theory with experiments ranging from 2D examples to 1024-dimensional latents, including distributional ablations and pixel-based robotic control. Our theory turns an empirically successful recipe into a mathematical guarantee, providing the foundation for building World Models that provably recover the structure of the world.

Neural posterior estimation has emerged as a powerful tool for amortized inference, with growing adoption across scientific and applied domains. In many of these applications, the conditioning variable is a set of observations whose elements depend not only on the target but also on unknown factors shared across the set. Optimal inference therefore requires treating the set jointly, which in turn requires training the estimator at the deployment set size -- a regime where memory and compute quickly become prohibitive. We introduce a simple, theoretically grounded strategy that decouples representation learning from posterior modeling. Our method trains a mean-pool Deep Set on sets of size at most two, producing an encoder that generalizes to arbitrary set sizes. The inference head is then finetuned on pre-aggregated embeddings, making training cost essentially independent of the deployment set size N. Across scalar, image, multi-view 3D, molecular, and high-dimensional conditional generation benchmarks with N in the thousands, our approach matches or outperforms standard baselines at a fraction of the compute.

We consider the problem of conformal prediction under covariate shift. Given labeled data from a source domain and unlabeled data from a covariate shifted target domain, we seek to construct prediction sets with valid marginal coverage in the target domain. Most existing methods require estimating the unknown likelihood ratio function, which can be prohibitive for high-dimensional data such as images. To address this challenge, we introduce the likelihood ratio regularized quantile regression (LR-QR) algorithm, which combines the pinball loss with a novel choice of regularization in order to construct a threshold function without directly estimating the unknown likelihood ratio. We show that the LR-QR method has coverage at the desired level in the target domain, up to a small error term that we can control. Our proofs draw on a novel analysis of coverage via stability bounds from learning theory. Our experiments demonstrate that the LR-QR algorithm outperforms existing methods on high-dimensional prediction tasks, including a regression task for the Communities and Crime dataset, an image classification task from the WILDS repository, and an LLM question-answering task on the MMLU benchmark.

Bayesian inference usually requires running potentially costly inference procedures separately for every new observation. In contrast, the idea of amortized Bayesian inference is to initially invest computational cost in training an inference network on simulated data, which can subsequently be used to rapidly perform inference (i.e., to return estimates of posterior distributions) for new observations. This approach has been applied to many real-world models in the sciences and engineering, but it is unclear how robust the approach is to adversarial perturbations in the observed data. Here, we study the adversarial robustness of amortized Bayesian inference, focusing on simulation-based estimation of multi-dimensional posterior distributions. We show that almost unrecognizable, targeted perturbations of the observations can lead to drastic changes in the predicted posterior and highly unrealistic posterior predictive samples, across several benchmark tasks and a real-world example from neuroscience. We propose a computationally efficient regularization scheme based on penalizing the Fisher information of the conditional density estimator, and show how it improves the adversarial robustness of amortized Bayesian inference.

Normalizing Flows explicitly maximize a full-dimensional likelihood on the training data. However, real data is typically only supported on a lower-dimensional manifold leading the model to expend significant compute on modeling noise. Injective Flows fix this by jointly learning a manifold and the distribution on it. So far, they have been limited by restrictive architectures and/or high computational cost. We lift both constraints by a new efficient estimator for the maximum likelihood loss, compatible with free-form bottleneck architectures. We further show that naively learning both the data manifold and the distribution on it can lead to divergent solutions, and use this insight to motivate a stable maximum likelihood training objective. We perform extensive experiments on toy, tabular and image data, demonstrating the competitive performance of the resulting model.

We present Simplex Random Features (SimRFs), a new random feature (RF) mechanism for unbiased approximation of the softmax and Gaussian kernels by geometrical correlation of random projection vectors. We prove that SimRFs provide the smallest possible mean square error (MSE) on unbiased estimates of these kernels among the class of weight-independent geometrically-coupled positive random feature (PRF) mechanisms, substantially outperforming the previously most accurate Orthogonal Random Features at no observable extra cost. We present a more computationally expensive SimRFs+ variant, which we prove is asymptotically optimal in the broader family of weight-dependent geometrical coupling schemes (which permit correlations between random vector directions and norms). In extensive empirical studies, we show consistent gains provided by SimRFs in settings including pointwise kernel estimation, nonparametric classification and scalable Transformers.

Large collections of matrices arise throughout modern machine learning, signal processing, and scientific computing, where they are commonly compressed by concatenation followed by truncated singular value decomposition (SVD). This strategy enables parameter sharing and efficient reconstruction and has been widely adopted across domains ranging from multi-view learning and signal processing to neural network compression. However, it leaves a fundamental question unanswered: which matrices can be safely concatenated and compressed together under explicit reconstruction error constraints? Existing approaches rely on heuristic or architecture-specific grouping and provide no principled guarantees on the resulting SVD approximation error. In the present work, we introduce a theory-driven framework for compression-aware clustering of matrices under SVD compression constraints. Our analysis establishes new spectral bounds for horizontally concatenated matrices, deriving global upper bounds on the optimal rank-r SVD reconstruction error from lower bounds on singular value growth. The first bound follows from Weyl-type monotonicity under blockwise extensions, while the second leverages singular values of incremental residuals to yield tighter, per-block guarantees. We further develop an efficient approximate estimator based on incremental truncated SVD that tracks dominant singular values without forming the full concatenated matrix. Therefore, we propose three clustering algorithms that merge matrices only when their predicted joint SVD compression error remains below a user-specified threshold. The algorithms span a trade-off between speed, provable accuracy, and scalability, enabling compression-aware clustering with explicit error control. Code is available online.

We propose a new localized inference algorithm for answering marginalization queries in large graphical models with the correlation decay property. Given a query variable and a large graphical model, we define a much smaller model in a local region around the query variable in the target model so that the marginal distribution of the query variable can be accurately approximated. We introduce two approximation error bounds based on the Dobrushin's comparison theorem and apply our bounds to derive a greedy expansion algorithm that efficiently guides the selection of neighbor nodes for localized inference. We verify our theoretical bounds on various datasets and demonstrate that our localized inference algorithm can provide fast and accurate approximation for large graphical models.

Variational inference is becoming more and more popular for approximating intractable posterior distributions in Bayesian statistics and machine learning. Meanwhile, a few recent works have provided theoretical justification and new insights on deep neural networks for estimating smooth functions in usual settings such as nonparametric regression. In this paper, we show that variational inference for sparse deep learning retains the same generalization properties than exact Bayesian inference. In particular, we highlight the connection between estimation and approximation theories via the classical bias-variance trade-off and show that it leads to near-minimax rates of convergence for H\"older smooth functions. Additionally, we show that the model selection framework over the neural network architecture via ELBO maximization does not overfit and adaptively achieves the optimal rate of convergence.

Dense feature matching is an important computer vision task that involves estimating all correspondences between two images of a 3D scene. In this paper, we revisit robust losses for matching from a Markov chain perspective, yielding theoretical insights and large gains in performance. We begin by constructing a unifying formulation of matching as a Markov chain, based on which we identify two key stages which we argue should be decoupled for matching. The first is the coarse stage, where the estimated result needs to be globally consistent. The second is the refinement stage, where the model needs precise localization capabilities. Inspired by the insight that these stages concern distinct issues, we propose a coarse matcher following the regression-by-classification paradigm that provides excellent globally consistent, albeit not exactly localized, matches. This is followed by a local feature refinement stage using well-motivated robust regression losses, yielding extremely precise matches. Our proposed approach, which we call RoMa, achieves significant improvements compared to the state-of-the-art. Code is available at https://github.com/Parskatt/RoMa

Moment-based estimation is a theoretically attractive approach to parametric inference, especially when likelihood-based estimation is unavailable, misspecified, or computationally inconvenient. However, the moment equations involve sample averages, which makes moment-based estimation sensitive to outliers. We propose the SGR-GMM algorithm, a robust generalized method of moments (GMM) procedure that uses a spectral gradient reweighting (SGR) primitive to soft-reweight the per-observation gradients during the moment-matching optimization. Our analysis has three layers. First, for a fixed center, the SGR primitive is formulated as an entropy-regularized spectral game between a sample-weight player and a density-matrix player, which is analyzed using classical multiplicative-weights and matrix-multiplicative-weights regret bounds. Second, we establish explicit convergence radius and finite termination bound for the fixed-center updates in the SGR primitive. Third, we prove a local finite-sample parameter estimation error bound with explicit dependence on the contamination fraction, inlier gradient stability, local GMM identification strength, and optimization accuracy. We further specialize the SGR-GMM algorithm to obtain a robust diagonally-weighted GMM (DGMM) estimator for estimating heteroscedastic low-rank Gaussian mixtures observed under additive Gaussian noise and strong contamination. In the numerical experiments, the SGR primitive produces nearly-oracle gradient estimation and the robust DGMM specialization substantially improves over non-robust moment baselines. The code and data are available at https://github.com/liu-lzhang/sgr-gmm.

Approximations to Gaussian processes based on inducing variables, combined with variational inference techniques, enable state-of-the-art sparse approaches to infer GPs at scale through mini batch-based learning. In this work, we address one limitation of sparse GPs, which is due to the challenge in dealing with a large number of inducing variables without imposing a special structure on the inducing inputs. In particular, we introduce a novel hierarchical prior, which imposes sparsity on the set of inducing variables. We treat our model variationally, and we experimentally show considerable computational gains compared to standard sparse GPs when sparsity on the inducing variables is realized considering the nearest inducing inputs of a random mini-batch of the data. We perform an extensive experimental validation that demonstrates the effectiveness of our approach compared to the state-of-the-art. Our approach enables the possibility to use sparse GPs using a large number of inducing points without incurring a prohibitive computational cost.

We present extensive empirical evidence showing that current Bayesian simulation-based inference algorithms can produce computationally unfaithful posterior approximations. Our results show that all benchmarked algorithms -- (Sequential) Neural Posterior Estimation, (Sequential) Neural Ratio Estimation, Sequential Neural Likelihood and variants of Approximate Bayesian Computation -- can yield overconfident posterior approximations, which makes them unreliable for scientific use cases and falsificationist inquiry. Failing to address this issue may reduce the range of applicability of simulation-based inference. For this reason, we argue that research efforts should be made towards theoretical and methodological developments of conservative approximate inference algorithms and present research directions towards this objective. In this regard, we show empirical evidence that ensembling posterior surrogates provides more reliable approximations and mitigates the issue.

Approximate inference in Gaussian process (GP) models with non-conjugate likelihoods gets entangled with the learning of the model hyperparameters. We improve hyperparameter learning in GP models and focus on the interplay between variational inference (VI) and the learning target. While VI's lower bound to the marginal likelihood is a suitable objective for inferring the approximate posterior, we show that a direct approximation of the marginal likelihood as in Expectation Propagation (EP) is a better learning objective for hyperparameter optimization. We design a hybrid training procedure to bring the best of both worlds: it leverages conjugate-computation VI for inference and uses an EP-like marginal likelihood approximation for hyperparameter learning. We compare VI, EP, Laplace approximation, and our proposed training procedure and empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposal across a wide range of data sets.

The ubiquity of distributed machine learning (ML) in sensitive public domain applications calls for algorithms that protect data privacy, while being robust to faults and adversarial behaviors. Although privacy and robustness have been extensively studied independently in distributed ML, their synthesis remains poorly understood. We present the first tight analysis of the error incurred by any algorithm ensuring robustness against a fraction of adversarial machines, as well as differential privacy (DP) for honest machines' data against any other curious entity. Our analysis exhibits a fundamental trade-off between privacy, robustness, and utility. To prove our lower bound, we consider the case of mean estimation, subject to distributed DP and robustness constraints, and devise reductions to centralized estimation of one-way marginals. We prove our matching upper bound by presenting a new distributed ML algorithm using a high-dimensional robust aggregation rule. The latter amortizes the dependence on the dimension in the error (caused by adversarial workers and DP), while being agnostic to the statistical properties of the data.

The explosion of large-scale data in fields such as finance, e-commerce, and social media has outstripped the processing capabilities of single-machine systems, driving the need for distributed statistical inference methods. Traditional approaches to distributed inference often struggle with achieving true sparsity in high-dimensional datasets and involve high computational costs. We propose a novel, two-stage, distributed best subset selection algorithm to address these issues. Our approach starts by efficiently estimating the active set while adhering to the ell_0 norm-constrained surrogate likelihood function, effectively reducing dimensionality and isolating key variables. A refined estimation within the active set follows, ensuring sparse estimates and matching the minimax ell_2 error bound. We introduce a new splicing technique for adaptive parameter selection to tackle subproblems under ell_0 constraints and a Generalized Information Criterion (GIC). Our theoretical and numerical studies show that the proposed algorithm correctly finds the true sparsity pattern, has the oracle property, and greatly lowers communication costs. This is a big step forward in distributed sparse estimation.

We study the task of agnostically learning halfspaces under the Gaussian distribution. Specifically, given labeled examples (x,y) from an unknown distribution on R^n times { pm 1}, whose marginal distribution on x is the standard Gaussian and the labels y can be arbitrary, the goal is to output a hypothesis with 0-1 loss OPT+epsilon, where OPT is the 0-1 loss of the best-fitting halfspace. We prove a near-optimal computational hardness result for this task, under the widely believed sub-exponential time hardness of the Learning with Errors (LWE) problem. Prior hardness results are either qualitatively suboptimal or apply to restricted families of algorithms. Our techniques extend to yield near-optimal lower bounds for related problems, including ReLU regression.

In variational inference, the benefits of Bayesian models rely on accurately capturing the true posterior distribution. We propose using neural samplers that specify implicit distributions, which are well-suited for approximating complex multimodal and correlated posteriors in high-dimensional spaces. Our approach introduces novel bounds for approximate inference using implicit distributions by locally linearising the neural sampler. This is distinct from existing methods that rely on additional discriminator networks and unstable adversarial objectives. Furthermore, we present a new sampler architecture that, for the first time, enables implicit distributions over tens of millions of latent variables, addressing computational concerns by using differentiable numerical approximations. We empirically show that our method is capable of recovering correlations across layers in large Bayesian neural networks, a property that is crucial for a network's performance but notoriously challenging to achieve. To the best of our knowledge, no other method has been shown to accomplish this task for such large models. Through experiments in downstream tasks, we demonstrate that our expressive posteriors outperform state-of-the-art uncertainty quantification methods, validating the effectiveness of our training algorithm and the quality of the learned implicit approximation.

We study the problem of robustly learning Gaussian Single Index Models (SIMs) in the presence of heavy-tailed noise and a constant fraction of adversarially corrupted covariates and responses. Prior work on robust recovery has considered settings such as linear regression (Pensia et al., JASA 2024), strictly monotonic link functions (Awasthi et al., NeurIPS 2022), and phase retrieval (Buna and Rebeschini, AISTATS 2025). However, these techniques do not extend to generic asymmetric non-monotonic link functions such as GeLU and Swish, which arise naturally as scalar primitives in modern gated neural architectures. We close this gap by giving the first robust recovery algorithm with near-linear sample and time complexity for generic non-monotonic link functions, thereby establishing the first robust recovery guarantees for a broad family of nonlinear SIMs for which no guarantees were previously known. Our central contribution is a new structural understanding of the Gaussian squared-loss landscape under adversarial contamination. Crucially, we prove that for a broad class of nonlinear non-monotonic SIMs, a dimension-independent, constant-radius convex basin exists around the ground truth and is efficiently reachable via robust spectral initialization even under adversarial contamination. Prior works fail to establish both guarantees simultaneously, thereby either breaking down under adversarial contamination or failing to handle generic non-monotonic link functions. Together, these structural insights yield a principled warm start for robust gradient descent that provably converges to a final estimation error of O(σsqrtε) in O(nd) time with O(d) samples, where ε is the contamination fraction.

This paper derives confidence intervals (CI) and time-uniform confidence sequences (CS) for the classical problem of estimating an unknown mean from bounded observations. We present a general approach for deriving concentration bounds, that can be seen as a generalization and improvement of the celebrated Chernoff method. At its heart, it is based on a class of composite nonnegative martingales, with strong connections to testing by betting and the method of mixtures. We show how to extend these ideas to sampling without replacement, another heavily studied problem. In all cases, our bounds are adaptive to the unknown variance, and empirically vastly outperform existing approaches based on Hoeffding or empirical Bernstein inequalities and their recent supermartingale generalizations. In short, we establish a new state-of-the-art for four fundamental problems: CSs and CIs for bounded means, when sampling with and without replacement.

We study the problem of uncertainty quantification via prediction sets, in an online setting where the data distribution may vary arbitrarily over time. Recent work develops online conformal prediction techniques that leverage regret minimization algorithms from the online learning literature to learn prediction sets with approximately valid coverage and small regret. However, standard regret minimization could be insufficient for handling changing environments, where performance guarantees may be desired not only over the full time horizon but also in all (sub-)intervals of time. We develop new online conformal prediction methods that minimize the strongly adaptive regret, which measures the worst-case regret over all intervals of a fixed length. We prove that our methods achieve near-optimal strongly adaptive regret for all interval lengths simultaneously, and approximately valid coverage. Experiments show that our methods consistently obtain better coverage and smaller prediction sets than existing methods on real-world tasks, such as time series forecasting and image classification under distribution shift.

Averaging the parameters of models that have the same architecture and initialization can provide a means of combining their respective capabilities. In this paper, we take the perspective that this "merging" operation can be seen as choosing parameters that approximately maximize the joint likelihood of the posteriors of the models' parameters. Computing a simple average of the models' parameters therefore corresponds to making an isotropic Gaussian approximation to their posteriors. We develop an alternative merging procedure based on the Laplace approximation where we approximate each model's posterior as a Gaussian distribution whose precision matrix corresponds to its Fisher information. We first show that our "Fisher merging" technique provides a performance boost in settings where simple parameter averaging is currently used -- specifically, robust fine-tuning and model ensembling. Then, we compare merging to standard gradient-based transfer learning and demonstrate that merging enables a fundamentally different method for transferring capabilities across models. Specifically, we show that Fisher merging is competitive with gradient-based transfer learning approaches (while being significantly cheaper) in intermediate-task training and domain-adaptive pre-training. We also show that our merging procedure makes it possible to combine models in previously unexplored ways. We release our code to facilitate future research into methods for merging models.

Combining several (sample approximations of) distributions, which we term sub-posteriors, into a single distribution proportional to their product, is a common challenge. Occurring, for instance, in distributed 'big data' problems, or when working under multi-party privacy constraints. Many existing approaches resort to approximating the individual sub-posteriors for practical necessity, then find either an analytical approximation or sample approximation of the resulting (product-pooled) posterior. The quality of the posterior approximation for these approaches is poor when the sub-posteriors fall out-with a narrow range of distributional form, such as being approximately Gaussian. Recently, a Fusion approach has been proposed which finds an exact Monte Carlo approximation of the posterior, circumventing the drawbacks of approximate approaches. Unfortunately, existing Fusion approaches have a number of computational limitations, particularly when unifying a large number of sub-posteriors. In this paper, we generalise the theory underpinning existing Fusion approaches, and embed the resulting methodology within a recursive divide-and-conquer sequential Monte Carlo paradigm. This ultimately leads to a competitive Fusion approach, which is robust to increasing numbers of sub-posteriors.

We present Δ-UQ -- a novel, general-purpose uncertainty estimator using the concept of anchoring in predictive models. Anchoring works by first transforming the input into a tuple consisting of an anchor point drawn from a prior distribution, and a combination of the input sample with the anchor using a pretext encoding scheme. This encoding is such that the original input can be perfectly recovered from the tuple -- regardless of the choice of the anchor. Therefore, any predictive model should be able to predict the target response from the tuple alone (since it implicitly represents the input). Moreover, by varying the anchors for a fixed sample, we can estimate uncertainty in the prediction even using only a single predictive model. We find this uncertainty is deeply connected to improper sampling of the input data, and inherent noise, enabling us to estimate the total uncertainty in any system. With extensive empirical studies on a variety of use-cases, we demonstrate that Δ-UQ outperforms several competitive baselines. Specifically, we study model fitting, sequential model optimization, model based inversion in the regression setting and out of distribution detection, & calibration under distribution shifts for classification.

We provide theoretical and empirical evidence that using tighter evidence lower bounds (ELBOs) can be detrimental to the process of learning an inference network by reducing the signal-to-noise ratio of the gradient estimator. Our results call into question common implicit assumptions that tighter ELBOs are better variational objectives for simultaneous model learning and inference amortization schemes. Based on our insights, we introduce three new algorithms: the partially importance weighted auto-encoder (PIWAE), the multiply importance weighted auto-encoder (MIWAE), and the combination importance weighted auto-encoder (CIWAE), each of which includes the standard importance weighted auto-encoder (IWAE) as a special case. We show that each can deliver improvements over IWAE, even when performance is measured by the IWAE target itself. Furthermore, our results suggest that PIWAE may be able to deliver simultaneous improvements in the training of both the inference and generative networks.

Learning distribution families over R^d is a fundamental problem in unsupervised learning and statistics. A central question in this setting is whether a given family of distributions possesses sufficient structure to be (at least) information-theoretically learnable and, if so, to characterize its sample complexity. In 2018, Ashtiani et al. reframed sample compressibility, originally due to Littlestone and Warmuth (1986), as a structural property of distribution classes, proving that it guarantees PAC-learnability. This discovery subsequently enabled a series of recent advancements in deriving nearly tight sample complexity bounds for various high-dimensional open problems. It has been further conjectured that the converse also holds: every learnable class admits a tight sample compression scheme. In this work, we establish that sample compressible families remain learnable even from perturbed samples, subject to a set of necessary and sufficient conditions. We analyze two models of data perturbation: (i) an additive independent noise model, and (ii) an adversarial corruption model, where an adversary manipulates a limited subset of the samples unknown to the learner. Our results are general and rely on as minimal assumptions as possible. We develop a perturbation-quantization framework that interfaces naturally with the compression scheme and leads to sample complexity bounds that scale gracefully with the noise level and corruption budget. As concrete applications, we establish new sample complexity bounds for learning finite mixtures of high-dimensional uniform distributions under both noise and adversarial perturbations, as well as for learning Gaussian mixture models from adversarially corrupted samples, resolving two open problems in the literature.

Measuring geometric similarity between high-dimensional network representations is a topic of longstanding interest to neuroscience and deep learning. Although many methods have been proposed, only a few works have rigorously analyzed their statistical efficiency or quantified estimator uncertainty in data-limited regimes. Here, we derive upper and lower bounds on the worst-case convergence of standard estimators of shape distancex2014a measure of representational dissimilarity proposed by Williams et al. (2021).These bounds reveal the challenging nature of the problem in high-dimensional feature spaces. To overcome these challenges, we introduce a new method-of-moments estimator with a tunable bias-variance tradeoff. We show that this estimator achieves substantially lower bias than standard estimators in simulation and on neural data, particularly in high-dimensional settings. Thus, we lay the foundation for a rigorous statistical theory for high-dimensional shape analysis, and we contribute a new estimation method that is well-suited to practical scientific settings.

We propose a fully data-driven approach to designing mutual information (MI) estimators. Since any MI estimator is a function of the observed sample from two random variables, we parameterize this function with a neural network (MIST) and train it end-to-end to predict MI values. Training is performed on a large meta-dataset of 625,000 synthetic joint distributions with known ground-truth MI. To handle variable sample sizes and dimensions, we employ a two-dimensional attention scheme ensuring permutation invariance across input samples. To quantify uncertainty, we optimize a quantile regression loss, enabling the estimator to approximate the sampling distribution of MI rather than return a single point estimate. This research program departs from prior work by taking a fully empirical route, trading universal theoretical guarantees for flexibility and efficiency. Empirically, the learned estimators largely outperform classical baselines across sample sizes and dimensions, including on joint distributions unseen during training. The resulting quantile-based intervals are well-calibrated and more reliable than bootstrap-based confidence intervals, while inference is orders of magnitude faster than existing neural baselines. Beyond immediate empirical gains, this framework yields trainable, fully differentiable estimators that can be embedded into larger learning pipelines. Moreover, exploiting MI's invariance to invertible transformations, meta-datasets can be adapted to arbitrary data modalities via normalizing flows, enabling flexible training for diverse target meta-distributions.

Transformers are a class of autoregressive deep learning architectures which have recently achieved state-of-the-art performance in various vision, language, and robotics tasks. We revisit the problem of Kalman Filtering in linear dynamical systems and show that Transformers can approximate the Kalman Filter in a strong sense. Specifically, for any observable LTI system we construct an explicit causally-masked Transformer which implements the Kalman Filter, up to a small additive error which is bounded uniformly in time; we call our construction the Transformer Filter. Our construction is based on a two-step reduction. We first show that a softmax self-attention block can exactly represent a Nadaraya-Watson kernel smoothing estimator with a Gaussian kernel. We then show that this estimator closely approximates the Kalman Filter. We also investigate how the Transformer Filter can be used for measurement-feedback control and prove that the resulting nonlinear controllers closely approximate the performance of standard optimal control policies such as the LQG controller.

Posterior sampling, i.e., exponential mechanism to sample from the posterior distribution, provides varepsilon-pure differential privacy (DP) guarantees and does not suffer from potentially unbounded privacy breach introduced by (varepsilon,delta)-approximate DP. In practice, however, one needs to apply approximate sampling methods such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), thus re-introducing the unappealing delta-approximation error into the privacy guarantees. To bridge this gap, we propose the Approximate SAample Perturbation (abbr. ASAP) algorithm which perturbs an MCMC sample with noise proportional to its Wasserstein-infinity (W_infty) distance from a reference distribution that satisfies pure DP or pure Gaussian DP (i.e., delta=0). We then leverage a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm to generate the sample and prove that the algorithm converges in W_infty distance. We show that by combining our new techniques with a careful localization step, we obtain the first nearly linear-time algorithm that achieves the optimal rates in the DP-ERM problem with strongly convex and smooth losses.

We propose a method that achieves near-optimal rates for smooth stochastic convex optimization and requires essentially no prior knowledge of problem parameters. This improves on prior work which requires knowing at least the initial distance to optimality d0. Our method, U-DoG, combines UniXGrad (Kavis et al., 2019) and DoG (Ivgi et al., 2023) with novel iterate stabilization techniques. It requires only loose bounds on d0 and the noise magnitude, provides high probability guarantees under sub-Gaussian noise, and is also near-optimal in the non-smooth case. Our experiments show consistent, strong performance on convex problems and mixed results on neural network training.

Motivated by privacy concerns in sequential decision-making on sensitive data, we address the challenge of nonparametric contextual multi-armed bandits (MAB) under local differential privacy (LDP). We develop a uniform-confidence-bound-type estimator, showing its minimax optimality supported by a matching minimax lower bound. We further consider the case where auxiliary datasets are available, subject also to (possibly heterogeneous) LDP constraints. Under the widely-used covariate shift framework, we propose a jump-start scheme to effectively utilize the auxiliary data, the minimax optimality of which is further established by a matching lower bound. Comprehensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets validate our theoretical results and underscore the effectiveness of the proposed methods.

State estimation of dynamical systems in real-time is a fundamental task in signal processing. For systems that are well-represented by a fully known linear Gaussian state space (SS) model, the celebrated Kalman filter (KF) is a low complexity optimal solution. However, both linearity of the underlying SS model and accurate knowledge of it are often not encountered in practice. Here, we present KalmanNet, a real-time state estimator that learns from data to carry out Kalman filtering under non-linear dynamics with partial information. By incorporating the structural SS model with a dedicated recurrent neural network module in the flow of the KF, we retain data efficiency and interpretability of the classic algorithm while implicitly learning complex dynamics from data. We demonstrate numerically that KalmanNet overcomes non-linearities and model mismatch, outperforming classic filtering methods operating with both mismatched and accurate domain knowledge.

In multi-fidelity optimization, biased approximations of varying costs of the target function are available. This paper studies the problem of optimizing a locally smooth function with a limited budget, where the learner has to make a tradeoff between the cost and the bias of these approximations. We first prove lower bounds for the simple regret under different assumptions on the fidelities, based on a cost-to-bias function. We then present the Kometo algorithm which achieves, with additional logarithmic factors, the same rates without any knowledge of the function smoothness and fidelity assumptions, and improves previously proven guarantees. We finally empirically show that our algorithm outperforms previous multi-fidelity optimization methods without the knowledge of problem-dependent parameters.

We address the problem of biased gradient estimation in deep Boltzmann machines (DBMs). The existing method to obtain an unbiased estimator uses a maximal coupling based on a Gibbs sampler, but when the state is high-dimensional, it takes a long time to converge. In this study, we propose to use a coupling based on the Metropolis-Hastings (MH) and to initialize the state around a local mode of the target distribution. Because of the propensity of MH to reject proposals, the coupling tends to converge in only one step with a high probability, leading to high efficiency. We find that our method allows DBMs to be trained in an end-to-end fashion without greedy pretraining. We also propose some practical techniques to further improve the performance of DBMs. We empirically demonstrate that our training algorithm enables DBMs to show comparable generative performance to other deep generative models, achieving the FID score of 10.33 for MNIST.

The Fisher information is a fundamental concept for characterizing the sensitivity of parameters in neural networks. However, leveraging the full observed Fisher information is too expensive for large models, so most methods rely on simple diagonal approximations. While efficient, this approach ignores parameter correlations, often resulting in reduced performance on downstream tasks. In this work, we mitigate these limitations and propose Generalized Fisher-Weighted SVD (GFWSVD), a post-training LLM compression technique that accounts for both diagonal and off-diagonal elements of the Fisher information matrix, providing a more accurate reflection of parameter importance. To make the method tractable, we introduce a scalable adaptation of the Kronecker-factored approximation algorithm for the observed Fisher information. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on LLM compression, showing improvements over existing compression baselines. For example, at a 20 compression rate on the MMLU benchmark, our method outperforms FWSVD, which is based on a diagonal approximation of the Fisher information, by 5 percent, SVD-LLM by 3 percent, and ASVD by 6 percent compression rate.

As efficient alternatives to softmax Attention, linear State-Space Models (SSMs) achieve constant memory and linear compute, but maintain only a lossy, fading summary of the past, often leading to inferior performance in recall-oriented tasks. We propose Gated KalmaNet (GKA), a layer that accounts for the full past while maintaining SSM-style efficiency. We ground our approach in the Kalman Filter (KF) framework, which provides a principled solution for optimal inference in dynamical systems. We show that several existing SSM layers (DeltaNet, Gated DeltaNet, and Kimi Delta Attention) are approximations to the KF recurrence that assume identity error covariance, thereby ignoring how past measurements (keys and values) should optimally influence state updates. In contrast, GKA computes the exact Kalman gain by maintaining the full error covariance. Under a steady-state assumption that enables parallelization, this reduces to solving an online ridge regression problem with constant memory and linear compute cost. A critical insight is that standard KF equations are numerically unstable in low-precision environments (like bfloat16) and hard to parallelize on modern hardware. We address this through: (1) adaptive regularization with input-dependent gating to control the condition number of the ridge regression for numerical stability, and (2) Chebyshev Iteration, which we show is more stable than conventional iterative solvers in low-precision settings. We further develop hardware-aware chunk-wise kernels to enable efficient training. Empirically, GKA outperforms existing SSM layers (like Mamba2 and Gated DeltaNet) on short-context tasks and achieves more than 10\% relative improvement on long-context RAG and LongQA tasks up to 128k tokens.

We tackle the problem of estimating a Manhattan frame, i.e. three orthogonal vanishing points, and the unknown focal length of the camera, leveraging a prior vertical direction. The direction can come from an Inertial Measurement Unit that is a standard component of recent consumer devices, e.g., smartphones. We provide an exhaustive analysis of minimal line configurations and derive two new 2-line solvers, one of which does not suffer from singularities affecting existing solvers. Additionally, we design a new non-minimal method, running on an arbitrary number of lines, to boost the performance in local optimization. Combining all solvers in a hybrid robust estimator, our method achieves increased accuracy even with a rough prior. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate the superior accuracy of our method compared to the state of the art, while having comparable runtimes. We further demonstrate the applicability of our solvers for relative rotation estimation. The code is available at https://github.com/cvg/VP-Estimation-with-Prior-Gravity.

Continuous latent variables (LVs) are a key ingredient of many generative models, as they allow modelling expressive mixtures with an uncountable number of components. In contrast, probabilistic circuits (PCs) are hierarchical discrete mixtures represented as computational graphs composed of input, sum and product units. Unlike continuous LV models, PCs provide tractable inference but are limited to discrete LVs with categorical (i.e. unordered) states. We bridge these model classes by introducing probabilistic integral circuits (PICs), a new language of computational graphs that extends PCs with integral units representing continuous LVs. In the first place, PICs are symbolic computational graphs and are fully tractable in simple cases where analytical integration is possible. In practice, we parameterise PICs with light-weight neural nets delivering an intractable hierarchical continuous mixture that can be approximated arbitrarily well with large PCs using numerical quadrature. On several distribution estimation benchmarks, we show that such PIC-approximating PCs systematically outperform PCs commonly learned via expectation-maximization or SGD.

While Bayesian inference provides a principled framework for reasoning under uncertainty, its widespread adoption is limited by the intractability of exact posterior computation, necessitating the use of approximate inference. However, existing methods are often computationally expensive, or demand costly retraining when priors change, limiting their utility, particularly in sequential inference problems such as real-time sensor fusion. To address these challenges, we introduce the Distribution Transformer -- a novel architecture that can learn arbitrary distribution-to-distribution mappings. Our method can be trained to map a prior to the corresponding posterior, conditioned on some dataset -- thus performing approximate Bayesian inference. Our novel architecture represents a prior distribution as a (universally-approximating) Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM), and transforms it into a GMM representation of the posterior. The components of the GMM attend to each other via self-attention, and to the datapoints via cross-attention. We demonstrate that Distribution Transformers both maintain flexibility to vary the prior, and significantly reduces computation times-from minutes to milliseconds-while achieving log-likelihood performance on par with or superior to existing approximate inference methods across tasks such as sequential inference, quantum system parameter inference, and Gaussian Process predictive posterior inference with hyperpriors.

Consider the problem of finding the best matching in a weighted graph where we only have access to predictions of the actual stochastic weights, based on an underlying context. If the predictor is the Bayes optimal one, then computing the best matching based on the predicted weights is optimal. However, in practice, this perfect information scenario is not realistic. Given an imperfect predictor, a suboptimal decision rule may compensate for the induced error and thus outperform the standard optimal rule. In this paper, we propose multicalibration as a way to address this problem. This fairness notion requires a predictor to be unbiased on each element of a family of protected sets of contexts. Given a class of matching algorithms mathcal C and any predictor γ of the edge-weights, we show how to construct a specific multicalibrated predictor hat γ, with the following property. Picking the best matching based on the output of hat γ is competitive with the best decision rule in mathcal C applied onto the original predictor γ. We complement this result by providing sample complexity bounds.

We propose algorithms for approximate filtering and smoothing in high-dimensional Factorial hidden Markov models. The approximation involves discarding, in a principled way, likelihood factors according to a notion of locality in a factor graph associated with the emission distribution. This allows the exponential-in-dimension cost of exact filtering and smoothing to be avoided. We prove that the approximation accuracy, measured in a local total variation norm, is "dimension-free" in the sense that as the overall dimension of the model increases the error bounds we derive do not necessarily degrade. A key step in the analysis is to quantify the error introduced by localizing the likelihood function in a Bayes' rule update. The factorial structure of the likelihood function which we exploit arises naturally when data have known spatial or network structure. We demonstrate the new algorithms on synthetic examples and a London Underground passenger flow problem, where the factor graph is effectively given by the train network.

We study the class of location-scale or heteroscedastic noise models (LSNMs), in which the effect Y can be written as a function of the cause X and a noise source N independent of X, which may be scaled by a positive function g over the cause, i.e., Y = f(X) + g(X)N. Despite the generality of the model class, we show the causal direction is identifiable up to some pathological cases. To empirically validate these theoretical findings, we propose two estimators for LSNMs: an estimator based on (non-linear) feature maps, and one based on neural networks. Both model the conditional distribution of Y given X as a Gaussian parameterized by its natural parameters. When the feature maps are correctly specified, we prove that our estimator is jointly concave, and a consistent estimator for the cause-effect identification task. Although the the neural network does not inherit those guarantees, it can fit functions of arbitrary complexity, and reaches state-of-the-art performance across benchmarks.

Classical state estimation algorithms rely on predefined target's state-space model, which complicates model derivation and limits adaptability when system dynamics change. Neural network based estimators offer a data-driven alternative, but rarely fuse classical estimation theory into their structure and demand large, pre-computed training sets. To overcome these limitations, we propose a unified state-space structure without target's state-space model and treats both the input-layer activations and all network weights as latent states to be estimated online. We instantiate this nonlinear model with three canonical estimators-the extended Kalman estimator, the unscented Kalman estimator, and the particle estimator to simulate different neural network and demonstrate its generality. We then benchmark our approach against seven leading neural network estimators across three representative scenarios. Results show that our neural network state-space estimators not only retain the robust learning capability, but also match or exceed the accuracy of both classical and pre-trained neural network methods. Code, data, and more result: github.com/ShineMinxing/PaperNNSSE.git

We propose a direct estimation method for R\'{e}nyi and f-divergence measures based on a new graph theoretical interpretation. Suppose that we are given two sample sets X and Y, respectively with N and M samples, where eta:=M/N is a constant value. Considering the k-nearest neighbor (k-NN) graph of Y in the joint data set (X,Y), we show that the average powered ratio of the number of X points to the number of Y points among all k-NN points is proportional to R\'{e}nyi divergence of X and Y densities. A similar method can also be used to estimate f-divergence measures. We derive bias and variance rates, and show that for the class of gamma-H\"{o}lder smooth functions, the estimator achieves the MSE rate of O(N^{-2gamma/(gamma+d)}). Furthermore, by using a weighted ensemble estimation technique, for density functions with continuous and bounded derivatives of up to the order d, and some extra conditions at the support set boundary, we derive an ensemble estimator that achieves the parametric MSE rate of O(1/N). Our estimators are more computationally tractable than other competing estimators, which makes them appealing in many practical applications.

A key component of Visual Simultaneous Localization and Mapping (VSLAM) is estimating relative camera poses using matched keypoints. Accurate estimation is challenged by noisy correspondences. Classical methods rely on stochastic hypothesis sampling and iterative estimation, while learning-based methods often lack explicit geometric structure. In this work, we reformulate relative pose estimation as a relational inference problem over epipolar correspondence graphs, where matched keypoints are nodes and nearby ones are connected by edges. Graph operations such as pruning, message passing, and pooling estimate a quaternion rotation, translation vector, and the Essential Matrix (EM). Minimizing a loss comprising (i) L_2 differences with ground truth (GT), (ii) Frobenius norm between estimated and GT EMs, (iii) singular value differences, (iv) heading angle differences, and (v) scale differences, yields the relative pose between image pairs. The dense detector-free method LoFTR is used for matching. Experiments on indoor and outdoor benchmarks show improved robustness to dense noise and large baseline variation compared to classical and learning-guided approaches, highlighting the effectiveness of global relational consensus.

As robustness verification methods are becoming more precise, training certifiably robust neural networks is becoming ever more relevant. To this end, certified training methods compute and then optimize an upper bound on the worst-case loss over a robustness specification. Curiously, training methods based on the imprecise interval bound propagation (IBP) consistently outperform those leveraging more precise bounding methods. Still, we lack an understanding of the mechanisms making IBP so successful. In this work, we thoroughly investigate these mechanisms by leveraging a novel metric measuring the tightness of IBP bounds. We first show theoretically that, for deep linear models, tightness decreases with width and depth at initialization, but improves with IBP training, given sufficient network width. We, then, derive sufficient and necessary conditions on weight matrices for IBP bounds to become exact and demonstrate that these impose strong regularization, explaining the empirically observed trade-off between robustness and accuracy in certified training. Our extensive experimental evaluation validates our theoretical predictions for ReLU networks, including that wider networks improve performance, yielding state-of-the-art results. Interestingly, we observe that while all IBP-based training methods lead to high tightness, this is neither sufficient nor necessary to achieve high certifiable robustness. This hints at the existence of new training methods that do not induce the strong regularization required for tight IBP bounds, leading to improved robustness and standard accuracy.

We investigate statistical properties of a likelihood approach to nonparametric estimation of a singular distribution using deep generative models. More specifically, a deep generative model is used to model high-dimensional data that are assumed to concentrate around some low-dimensional structure. Estimating the distribution supported on this low-dimensional structure, such as a low-dimensional manifold, is challenging due to its singularity with respect to the Lebesgue measure in the ambient space. In the considered model, a usual likelihood approach can fail to estimate the target distribution consistently due to the singularity. We prove that a novel and effective solution exists by perturbing the data with an instance noise, which leads to consistent estimation of the underlying distribution with desirable convergence rates. We also characterize the class of distributions that can be efficiently estimated via deep generative models. This class is sufficiently general to contain various structured distributions such as product distributions, classically smooth distributions and distributions supported on a low-dimensional manifold. Our analysis provides some insights on how deep generative models can avoid the curse of dimensionality for nonparametric distribution estimation. We conduct a thorough simulation study and real data analysis to empirically demonstrate that the proposed data perturbation technique improves the estimation performance significantly.

Selecting hyperparameters in deep learning greatly impacts its effectiveness but requires manual effort and expertise. Recent works show that Bayesian model selection with Laplace approximations can allow to optimize such hyperparameters just like standard neural network parameters using gradients and on the training data. However, estimating a single hyperparameter gradient requires a pass through the entire dataset, limiting the scalability of such algorithms. In this work, we overcome this issue by introducing lower bounds to the linearized Laplace approximation of the marginal likelihood. In contrast to previous estimators, these bounds are amenable to stochastic-gradient-based optimization and allow to trade off estimation accuracy against computational complexity. We derive them using the function-space form of the linearized Laplace, which can be estimated using the neural tangent kernel. Experimentally, we show that the estimators can significantly accelerate gradient-based hyperparameter optimization.

In recent years, multiple notions of algorithmic fairness have arisen. One such notion is individual fairness (IF), which requires that individuals who are similar receive similar treatment. In parallel, matrix estimation (ME) has emerged as a natural paradigm for handling noisy data with missing values. In this work, we connect the two concepts. We show that pre-processing data using ME can improve an algorithm's IF without sacrificing performance. Specifically, we show that using a popular ME method known as singular value thresholding (SVT) to pre-process the data provides a strong IF guarantee under appropriate conditions. We then show that, under analogous conditions, SVT pre-processing also yields estimates that are consistent and approximately minimax optimal. As such, the ME pre-processing step does not, under the stated conditions, increase the prediction error of the base algorithm, i.e., does not impose a fairness-performance trade-off. We verify these results on synthetic and real data.

Sequential learning with Gaussian processes (GPs) is challenging when access to past data is limited, for example, in continual and active learning. In such cases, errors can accumulate over time due to inaccuracies in the posterior, hyperparameters, and inducing points, making accurate learning challenging. Here, we present a method to keep all such errors in check using the recently proposed dual sparse variational GP. Our method enables accurate inference for generic likelihoods and improves learning by actively building and updating a memory of past data. We demonstrate its effectiveness in several applications involving Bayesian optimization, active learning, and continual learning.

In this paper, we introduce a conformal prediction method to construct prediction sets in a oneshot federated learning setting. More specifically, we define a quantile-of-quantiles estimator and prove that for any distribution, it is possible to output prediction sets with desired coverage in only one round of communication. To mitigate privacy issues, we also describe a locally differentially private version of our estimator. Finally, over a wide range of experiments, we show that our method returns prediction sets with coverage and length very similar to those obtained in a centralized setting. Overall, these results demonstrate that our method is particularly well-suited to perform conformal predictions in a one-shot federated learning setting.

We study the capacity of the self-attention key-query channel: for a fixed budget, how many distinct token-token relations can a single layer reliably encode? We introduce Relational Graph Recognition, where the key-query channel encodes a directed graph and, given a context (a subset of the vertices), must recover the neighbors of each vertex in the context. We measure resources by the total key dimension D_K = h,d_k. In a tractable multi-head model, we prove matching information-theoretic lower bounds and upper bounds via explicit constructions showing that recovering a graph with m' relations in d_{model}-dimensional embeddings requires D_K to grow essentially as m'/d_{model} up to logarithmic factors, and we obtain corresponding guarantees for scaled-softmax attention. This analysis yields a new, capacity-based rationale for multi-head attention: even in permutation graphs, where all queries attend to a single target, splitting a fixed D_K budget into multiple heads increases capacity by reducing interference from embedding superposition. Controlled experiments mirror the theory, revealing sharp phase transitions at the predicted capacity, and the multi-head advantage persists when adding softmax normalization, value routing, and a full Transformer block trained with frozen GPT-2 embeddings.

Virtual sensing techniques allow for inferring signals at new unmonitored locations by exploiting spatio-temporal measurements coming from physical sensors at different locations. However, as the sensor coverage becomes sparse due to costs or other constraints, physical proximity cannot be used to support interpolation. In this paper, we overcome this challenge by leveraging dependencies between the target variable and a set of correlated variables (covariates) that can frequently be associated with each location of interest. From this viewpoint, covariates provide partial observability, and the problem consists of inferring values for unobserved channels by exploiting observations at other locations to learn how such variables can correlate. We introduce a novel graph-based methodology to exploit such relationships and design a graph deep learning architecture, named GgNet, implementing the framework. The proposed approach relies on propagating information over a nested graph structure that is used to learn dependencies between variables as well as locations. GgNet is extensively evaluated under different virtual sensing scenarios, demonstrating higher reconstruction accuracy compared to the state-of-the-art.

Low-rank approximation is a fundamental technique in modern data analysis, widely utilized across various fields such as signal processing, machine learning, and natural language processing. Despite its ubiquity, the mechanics of low-rank approximation and its application in adaptation can sometimes be obscure, leaving practitioners and researchers with questions about its true capabilities and limitations. This paper seeks to clarify low-rank approximation and adaptation by offering a comprehensive guide that reveals their inner workings and explains their utility in a clear and accessible way. Our focus here is to develop a solid intuition for how low-rank approximation and adaptation operate, and why they are so effective. We begin with basic concepts and gradually build up to the mathematical underpinnings, ensuring that readers of all backgrounds can gain a deeper understanding of low-rank approximation and adaptation. We strive to strike a balance between informal explanations and rigorous mathematics, ensuring that both newcomers and experienced experts can benefit from this survey. Additionally, we introduce new low-rank decomposition and adaptation algorithms that have not yet been explored in the field, hoping that future researchers will investigate their potential applicability.

While most current approaches rely on further training techniques, such as fine-tuning or reinforcement learning, to enhance model capacities, model merging stands out for its ability of improving models without requiring any additional training. In this paper, we propose a unified framework for model merging based on low-rank estimation of task vectors without the need for access to the base model, named LoRE-Merging. Our approach is motivated by the observation that task vectors from fine-tuned models frequently exhibit a limited number of dominant singular values, making low-rank estimations less prone to interference. We implement the method by formulating the merging problem as an optimization problem. Extensive empirical experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework in mitigating interference and preserving task-specific information, thereby advancing the state-of-the-art performance in model merging techniques.

This paper considers decentralized optimization of convex functions with mixed affine equality constraints involving both local and global variables. Constraints on global variables may vary across different nodes in the network, while local variables are subject to coupled and node-specific constraints. Such problem formulations arise in machine learning applications, including federated learning and multi-task learning, as well as in resource allocation and distributed control. We analyze this problem under smooth and non-smooth assumptions, considering both strongly convex and general convex objective functions. Our main contribution is an optimal algorithm for the smooth, strongly convex regime, whose convergence rate matches established lower complexity bounds. We further provide near-optimal methods for the remaining cases.

We develop a rigorous mathematical analysis of zero-shot learning with attributes. In this setting, the goal is to label novel classes with no training data, only detectors for attributes and a description of how those attributes are correlated with the target classes, called the class-attribute matrix. We develop the first non-trivial lower bound on the worst-case error of the best map from attributes to classes for this setting, even with perfect attribute detectors. The lower bound characterizes the theoretical intrinsic difficulty of the zero-shot problem based on the available information -- the class-attribute matrix -- and the bound is practically computable from it. Our lower bound is tight, as we show that we can always find a randomized map from attributes to classes whose expected error is upper bounded by the value of the lower bound. We show that our analysis can be predictive of how standard zero-shot methods behave in practice, including which classes will likely be confused with others.

Large-scale traffic forecasting relies on fixed sensor networks that often exhibit blackouts: contiguous intervals of missing measurements caused by detector or communication failures. These outages are typically handled under a Missing At Random (MAR) assumption, even though blackout events may correlate with unobserved traffic conditions (e.g., congestion or anomalous flow), motivating a Missing Not At Random (MNAR) treatment. We propose a latent state-space framework that jointly models (i) traffic dynamics via a linear dynamical system and (ii) sensor dropout via a Bernoulli observation channel whose probability depends on the latent traffic state. Inference uses an Extended Kalman Filter with Rauch-Tung-Striebel smoothing, and parameters are learned via an approximate EM procedure with a dedicated update for detector-specific missingness parameters. On the Seattle inductive loop detector data, introducing latent dynamics yields large gains over naive baselines, reducing blackout imputation RMSE from 7.02 (LOCF) and 5.02 (linear interpolation + seasonal naive) to 4.23 (MAR LDS), corresponding to about a 64% reduction in MSE relative to LOCF. Explicit MNAR modeling provides a consistent but smaller additional improvement on real data (imputation RMSE 4.20; 0.8% RMSE reduction relative to MAR), with similar modest gains for short-horizon post-blackout forecasts (evaluated at 1, 3, and 6 steps). In controlled synthetic experiments, the MNAR advantage increases as the true missingness dependence on latent state strengthens. Overall, temporal dynamics dominate performance, while MNAR modeling offers a principled refinement that becomes most valuable when missingness is genuinely informative.

Given a generalist model, learning a task-relevant specialist representation is fundamental for downstream applications. Identifiability, the asymptotic guarantee of recovering the ground-truth representation, is critical because it sets the ultimate limit of any model, even with infinite data and computation. We study this problem in a completely nonparametric setting, without relying on interventions, parametric forms, or structural constraints. We first prove that the structure between time steps and tasks is identifiable in a fully unsupervised manner, even when sequences lack strict temporal dependence and may exhibit disconnections, and task assignments can follow arbitrarily complex and interleaving structures. We then prove that, within each time step, the task-relevant latent representation can be disentangled from the irrelevant part under a simple sparsity regularization, without any additional information or parametric constraints. Together, these results establish a hierarchical foundation: task structure is identifiable across time steps, and task-relevant latent representations are identifiable within each step. To our knowledge, each result provides a first general nonparametric identifiability guarantee, and together they mark a step toward provably moving from generalist to specialist models.

Estimating camera poses is a fundamental task for 3D reconstruction and remains challenging given sparsely sampled views (<10). In contrast to existing approaches that pursue top-down prediction of global parametrizations of camera extrinsics, we propose a distributed representation of camera pose that treats a camera as a bundle of rays. This representation allows for a tight coupling with spatial image features improving pose precision. We observe that this representation is naturally suited for set-level transformers and develop a regression-based approach that maps image patches to corresponding rays. To capture the inherent uncertainties in sparse-view pose inference, we adapt this approach to learn a denoising diffusion model which allows us to sample plausible modes while improving performance. Our proposed methods, both regression- and diffusion-based, demonstrate state-of-the-art performance on camera pose estimation on CO3D while generalizing to unseen object categories and in-the-wild captures.

For observational studies, we study the sensitivity of causal inference when treatment assignments may depend on unobserved confounders. We develop a loss minimization approach for estimating bounds on the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) when unobserved confounders have a bounded effect on the odds ratio of treatment selection. Our approach is scalable and allows flexible use of model classes in estimation, including nonparametric and black-box machine learning methods. Based on these bounds for the CATE, we propose a sensitivity analysis for the average treatment effect (ATE). Our semi-parametric estimator extends/bounds the augmented inverse propensity weighted (AIPW) estimator for the ATE under bounded unobserved confounding. By constructing a Neyman orthogonal score, our estimator of the bound for the ATE is a regular root-n estimator so long as the nuisance parameters are estimated at the o_p(n^{-1/4}) rate. We complement our methodology with optimality results showing that our proposed bounds are tight in certain cases. We demonstrate our method on simulated and real data examples, and show accurate coverage of our confidence intervals in practical finite sample regimes with rich covariate information.

As generative models become ubiquitous, there is a critical need for fine-grained control over the generation process. Yet, while controlled generation methods from prompting to fine-tuning proliferate, a fundamental question remains unanswered: are these models truly controllable in the first place? In this work, we provide a theoretical framework to formally answer this question. Framing human-model interaction as a control process, we propose a novel algorithm to estimate the controllable sets of models in a dialogue setting. Notably, we provide formal guarantees on the estimation error as a function of sample complexity: we derive probably-approximately correct bounds for controllable set estimates that are distribution-free, employ no assumptions except for output boundedness, and work for any black-box nonlinear control system (i.e., any generative model). We empirically demonstrate the theoretical framework on different tasks in controlling dialogue processes, for both language models and text-to-image generation. Our results show that model controllability is surprisingly fragile and highly dependent on the experimental setting. This highlights the need for rigorous controllability analysis, shifting the focus from simply attempting control to first understanding its fundamental limits.

Assessing the capabilities and risks of frontier AI systems is a critical area of research, and recent work has shown that repeated sampling from models can dramatically increase both. For instance, repeated sampling has been shown to increase their capabilities, such as solving difficult math and coding problems, but it has also been shown to increase their potential for harm, such as being jailbroken. Such results raise a crucial question for both capability and safety forecasting: how can one accurately predict a model's behavior when scaled to a massive number of attempts, given a vastly smaller sampling budget? This question is directly relevant to model providers, who serve hundreds of millions of users daily, and to governmental regulators, who seek to prevent harms. To answer this questions, we make three contributions. First, we find that standard methods for fitting these laws suffer from statistical shortcomings that hinder predictive accuracy, especially in data-limited scenarios. Second, we remedy these shortcomings by introducing a robust estimation framework, which uses a beta-binomial distribution to generate more accurate predictions from limited data. Third, we propose a dynamic sampling strategy that allocates a greater budget to harder problems. Combined, these innovations enable more reliable prediction of rare risks and capabilities at a fraction of the computational cost.

Bayesian predictive inference provides a principled framework for uncertainty quantification, data efficiency, and robust generalization. However, exact inference is often intractable, and scalable approximations may remain computationally expensive or require restrictive modeling assumptions that degrade predictive performance. Prior-Data Fitted and in-context models have recently emerged as an amortized alternative by learning to map datasets directly to predictive distributions, but existing approaches are tightly coupled to the support of the training prior and lack explicit mechanisms for adapting to new priors at test time, resulting in limited robustness under distribution shift. We introduce a multi-task in-context learning framework for amortized hierarchical Bayesian predictive inference that explicitly represents prior information as a prefix of in-context datasets. A transformer trained on sequences of prior and target tasks learns to adapt its predictions across families of priors. On a suite of evaluations with increasing difficulty, including out-of-meta-distribution priors and priors with high-dimensional latent structures, our method matches oracle Bayesian predictors while being orders of magnitude faster. We further demonstrate its practical relevance on a real-world spatiotemporal temperature prediction benchmark. Code is available at https://github.com/martianmartina/multi-task-bayesian-icl/.

A complex system with cluttered observations may be a coupled mixture of multiple simple sub-systems corresponding to latent entities. Such sub-systems may hold distinct dynamics in the continuous-time domain; therein, complicated interactions between sub-systems also evolve over time. This setting is fairly common in the real world but has been less considered. In this paper, we propose a sequential learning approach under this setting by decoupling a complex system for handling irregularly sampled and cluttered sequential observations. Such decoupling brings about not only subsystems describing the dynamics of each latent entity but also a meta-system capturing the interaction between entities over time. Specifically, we argue that the meta-system evolving within a simplex is governed by projected differential equations (ProjDEs). We further analyze and provide neural-friendly projection operators in the context of Bregman divergence. Experimental results on synthetic and real-world datasets show the advantages of our approach when facing complex and cluttered sequential data compared to the state-of-the-art.

Primal-dual safe RL methods commonly perform iterations between the primal update of the policy and the dual update of the Lagrange Multiplier. Such a training paradigm is highly susceptible to the error in cumulative cost estimation since this estimation serves as the key bond connecting the primal and dual update processes. We show that this problem causes significant underestimation of cost when using off-policy methods, leading to the failure to satisfy the safety constraint. To address this issue, we propose conservative policy optimization, which learns a policy in a constraint-satisfying area by considering the uncertainty in cost estimation. This improves constraint satisfaction but also potentially hinders reward maximization. We then introduce local policy convexification to help eliminate such suboptimality by gradually reducing the estimation uncertainty. We provide theoretical interpretations of the joint coupling effect of these two ingredients and further verify them by extensive experiments. Results on benchmark tasks show that our method not only achieves an asymptotic performance comparable to state-of-the-art on-policy methods while using much fewer samples, but also significantly reduces constraint violation during training. Our code is available at https://github.com/ZifanWu/CAL.

Mixture of experts (MoE) has a well-principled finite mixture model construction for prediction, allowing the gating network (mixture weights) to learn from the predictors (explanatory variables) together with the experts' network (mixture component densities). We investigate the estimation properties of MoEs in a high-dimensional setting, where the number of predictors is much larger than the sample size, for which the literature lacks computational and especially theoretical results. We consider the class of finite MoE models with softmax gating functions and Gaussian regression experts, and focus on the theoretical properties of their l_1-regularized estimation via the Lasso. We provide a lower bound on the regularization parameter of the Lasso penalty that ensures an l_1-oracle inequality is satisfied by the Lasso estimator according to the Kullback--Leibler loss. We further state an l_1-ball oracle inequality for the l_1-penalized maximum likelihood estimator from the model selection.

We develop an econometric framework integrating heavy-tailed Student's t distributions with behavioral probability weighting while preserving infinite divisibility. Using 432{,}752 observations across 86 assets (2004--2024), we demonstrate Student's t specifications outperform Gaussian models in 88.4\% of cases. Bounded probability-weighting transformations preserve mathematical properties required for dynamic pricing. Gaussian models underestimate 99\% Value-at-Risk by 19.7\% versus 3.2\% for our specification. Joint estimation procedures identify tail and behavioral parameters with established asymptotic properties. Results provide robust inference for asset-pricing applications where heavy tails and behavioral distortions coexist.

When applying differential privacy to sensitive data, we can often improve performance using external information such as other sensitive data, public data, or human priors. We propose to use the learning-augmented algorithms (or algorithms with predictions) framework -- previously applied largely to improve time complexity or competitive ratios -- as a powerful way of designing and analyzing privacy-preserving methods that can take advantage of such external information to improve utility. This idea is instantiated on the important task of multiple quantile release, for which we derive error guarantees that scale with a natural measure of prediction quality while (almost) recovering state-of-the-art prediction-independent guarantees. Our analysis enjoys several advantages, including minimal assumptions about the data, a natural way of adding robustness, and the provision of useful surrogate losses for two novel ``meta" algorithms that learn predictions from other (potentially sensitive) data. We conclude with experiments on challenging tasks demonstrating that learning predictions across one or more instances can lead to large error reductions while preserving privacy.

In this manuscript we consider the problem of generalized linear estimation on Gaussian mixture data with labels given by a single-index model. Our first result is a sharp asymptotic expression for the test and training errors in the high-dimensional regime. Motivated by the recent stream of results on the Gaussian universality of the test and training errors in generalized linear estimation, we ask ourselves the question: "when is a single Gaussian enough to characterize the error?". Our formula allow us to give sharp answers to this question, both in the positive and negative directions. More precisely, we show that the sufficient conditions for Gaussian universality (or lack of thereof) crucially depend on the alignment between the target weights and the means and covariances of the mixture clusters, which we precisely quantify. In the particular case of least-squares interpolation, we prove a strong universality property of the training error, and show it follows a simple, closed-form expression. Finally, we apply our results to real datasets, clarifying some recent discussion in the literature about Gaussian universality of the errors in this context.

Model performance evaluation is a critical and expensive task in machine learning and computer vision. Without clear guidelines, practitioners often estimate model accuracy using a one-time completely random selection of the data. However, by employing tailored sampling and estimation strategies, one can obtain more precise estimates and reduce annotation costs. In this paper, we propose a statistical framework for model evaluation that includes stratification, sampling, and estimation components. We examine the statistical properties of each component and evaluate their efficiency (precision). One key result of our work is that stratification via k-means clustering based on accurate predictions of model performance yields efficient estimators. Our experiments on computer vision datasets show that this method consistently provides more precise accuracy estimates than the traditional simple random sampling, even with substantial efficiency gains of 10x. We also find that model-assisted estimators, which leverage predictions of model accuracy on the unlabeled portion of the dataset, are generally more efficient than the traditional estimates based solely on the labeled data.

With the widespread adoption of machine learning systems, the need to curtail their behavior has become increasingly apparent. This is evidenced by recent advancements towards developing models that satisfy robustness, safety, and fairness requirements. These requirements can be imposed (with generalization guarantees) by formulating constrained learning problems that can then be tackled by dual ascent algorithms. Yet, though these algorithms converge in objective value, even in non-convex settings, they cannot guarantee that their outcome is feasible. Doing so requires randomizing over all iterates, which is impractical in virtually any modern applications. Still, final iterates have been observed to perform well in practice. In this work, we address this gap between theory and practice by characterizing the constraint violation of Lagrangian minimizers associated with optimal dual variables, despite lack of convexity. To do this, we leverage the fact that non-convex, finite-dimensional constrained learning problems can be seen as parametrizations of convex, functional problems. Our results show that rich parametrizations effectively mitigate the issue of feasibility in dual methods, shedding light on prior empirical successes of dual learning. We illustrate our findings in fair learning tasks.

Given a set of K probability densities, we consider the multimarginal generative modeling problem of learning a joint distribution that recovers these densities as marginals. The structure of this joint distribution should identify multi-way correspondences among the prescribed marginals. We formalize an approach to this task within a generalization of the stochastic interpolant framework, leading to efficient learning algorithms built upon dynamical transport of measure. Our generative models are defined by velocity and score fields that can be characterized as the minimizers of simple quadratic objectives, and they are defined on a simplex that generalizes the time variable in the usual dynamical transport framework. The resulting transport on the simplex is influenced by all marginals, and we show that multi-way correspondences can be extracted. The identification of such correspondences has applications to style transfer, algorithmic fairness, and data decorruption. In addition, the multimarginal perspective enables an efficient algorithm for reducing the dynamical transport cost in the ordinary two-marginal setting. We demonstrate these capacities with several numerical examples.

In this work, we present a variety of novel information-theoretic generalization bounds for learning algorithms, from the supersample setting of Steinke & Zakynthinou (2020)-the setting of the "conditional mutual information" framework. Our development exploits projecting the loss pair (obtained from a training instance and a testing instance) down to a single number and correlating loss values with a Rademacher sequence (and its shifted variants). The presented bounds include square-root bounds, fast-rate bounds, including those based on variance and sharpness, and bounds for interpolating algorithms etc. We show theoretically or empirically that these bounds are tighter than all information-theoretic bounds known to date on the same supersample setting.

We revisit Wald's celebrated Sequential Probability Ratio Test for sequential tests of two simple hypotheses, under privacy constraints. We propose DP-SPRT, a wrapper that can be calibrated to achieve desired error probabilities and privacy constraints, addressing a significant gap in previous work. DP-SPRT relies on a private mechanism that processes a sequence of queries and stops after privately determining when the query results fall outside a predefined interval. This OutsideInterval mechanism improves upon naive composition of existing techniques like AboveThreshold, potentially benefiting other sequential algorithms. We prove generic upper bounds on the error and sample complexity of DP-SPRT that can accommodate various noise distributions based on the practitioner's privacy needs. We exemplify them in two settings: Laplace noise (pure Differential Privacy) and Gaussian noise (R\'enyi differential privacy). In the former setting, by providing a lower bound on the sample complexity of any epsilon-DP test with prescribed type I and type II errors, we show that DP-SPRT is near optimal when both errors are small and the two hypotheses are close. Moreover, we conduct an experimental study revealing its good practical performance.

In this paper, we study the problem of inference in high-order structured prediction tasks. In the context of Markov random fields, the goal of a high-order inference task is to maximize a score function on the space of labels, and the score function can be decomposed into sum of unary and high-order potentials. We apply a generative model approach to study the problem of high-order inference, and provide a two-stage convex optimization algorithm for exact label recovery. We also provide a new class of hypergraph structural properties related to hyperedge expansion that drives the success in general high-order inference problems. Finally, we connect the performance of our algorithm and the hyperedge expansion property using a novel hypergraph Cheeger-type inequality.

Learning decompositions of expensive-to-evaluate black-box functions promises to scale Bayesian optimisation (BO) to high-dimensional problems. However, the success of these techniques depends on finding proper decompositions that accurately represent the black-box. While previous works learn those decompositions based on data, we investigate data-independent decomposition sampling rules in this paper. We find that data-driven learners of decompositions can be easily misled towards local decompositions that do not hold globally across the search space. Then, we formally show that a random tree-based decomposition sampler exhibits favourable theoretical guarantees that effectively trade off maximal information gain and functional mismatch between the actual black-box and its surrogate as provided by the decomposition. Those results motivate the development of the random decomposition upper-confidence bound algorithm (RDUCB) that is straightforward to implement - (almost) plug-and-play - and, surprisingly, yields significant empirical gains compared to the previous state-of-the-art on a comprehensive set of benchmarks. We also confirm the plug-and-play nature of our modelling component by integrating our method with HEBO, showing improved practical gains in the highest dimensional tasks from Bayesmark.

We consider the problem of estimating (diagonally dominant) M-matrices as precision matrices in Gaussian graphical models. These models exhibit intriguing properties, such as the existence of the maximum likelihood estimator with merely two observations for M-matrices lauritzen2019maximum,slawski2015estimation and even one observation for diagonally dominant M-matrices truell2021maximum. We propose an adaptive multiple-stage estimation method that refines the estimate by solving a weighted ell_1-regularized problem at each stage. Furthermore, we develop a unified framework based on the gradient projection method to solve the regularized problem, incorporating distinct projections to handle the constraints of M-matrices and diagonally dominant M-matrices. A theoretical analysis of the estimation error is provided. Our method outperforms state-of-the-art methods in precision matrix estimation and graph edge identification, as evidenced by synthetic and financial time-series data sets.

Much research in machine learning involves finding appropriate inductive biases (e.g. convolutional neural networks, momentum-based optimizers, transformers) to promote generalization on tasks. However, quantification of the amount of inductive bias associated with these architectures and hyperparameters has been limited. We propose a novel method for efficiently computing the inductive bias required for generalization on a task with a fixed training data budget; formally, this corresponds to the amount of information required to specify well-generalizing models within a specific hypothesis space of models. Our approach involves modeling the loss distribution of random hypotheses drawn from a hypothesis space to estimate the required inductive bias for a task relative to these hypotheses. Unlike prior work, our method provides a direct estimate of inductive bias without using bounds and is applicable to diverse hypothesis spaces. Moreover, we derive approximation error bounds for our estimation approach in terms of the number of sampled hypotheses. Consistent with prior results, our empirical results demonstrate that higher dimensional tasks require greater inductive bias. We show that relative to other expressive model classes, neural networks as a model class encode large amounts of inductive bias. Furthermore, our measure quantifies the relative difference in inductive bias between different neural network architectures. Our proposed inductive bias metric provides an information-theoretic interpretation of the benefits of specific model architectures for certain tasks and provides a quantitative guide to developing tasks requiring greater inductive bias, thereby encouraging the development of more powerful inductive biases.

While Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architectures have become the standard for sparsity scaling in large language models, they increasingly face diminishing returns and system-level bottlenecks. In this work, we explore embedding scaling as a potent, orthogonal dimension for scaling sparsity. Through a comprehensive analysis and experiments, we identify specific regimes where embedding scaling achieves a superior Pareto frontier compared to expert scaling. We systematically characterize the critical architectural factors governing this efficacy -- ranging from parameter budgeting to the interplay with model width and depth. Moreover, by integrating tailored system optimizations and speculative decoding, we effectively convert this sparsity into tangible inference speedups. Guided by these insights, we introduce LongCat-Flash-Lite, a 68.5B parameter model with ~3B activated trained from scratch. Despite allocating over 30B parameters to embeddings, LongCat-Flash-Lite not only surpasses parameter-equivalent MoE baselines but also exhibits exceptional competitiveness against existing models of comparable scale, particularly in agentic and coding domains.

Robust estimation is essential in correspondence-based Point Cloud Registration (PCR). Existing methods using maximal clique search in compatibility graphs achieve high recall but suffer from exponential time complexity, limiting their use in time-sensitive applications. To address this challenge, we propose a fast and robust estimator, TurboReg, built upon a novel lightweight clique, TurboClique, and a highly parallelizable Pivot-Guided Search (PGS) algorithm. First, we define the TurboClique as a 3-clique within a highly-constrained compatibility graph. The lightweight nature of the 3-clique allows for efficient parallel searching, and the highly-constrained compatibility graph ensures robust spatial consistency for stable transformation estimation. Next, PGS selects matching pairs with high SC^2 scores as pivots, effectively guiding the search toward TurboCliques with higher inlier ratios. Moreover, the PGS algorithm has linear time complexity and is significantly more efficient than the maximal clique search with exponential time complexity. Extensive experiments show that TurboReg achieves state-of-the-art performance across multiple real-world datasets, with substantial speed improvements. For example, on the 3DMatch+FCGF dataset, TurboReg (1K) operates 208.22times faster than 3DMAC while also achieving higher recall. Our code is accessible at https://github.com/Laka-3DV/TurboReg{TurboReg}.

In this article, we introduce a new parameterized family of topological invariants, taking the form of candidate decompositions, for multi-parameter persistence modules. We prove that our candidate decompositions are controllable approximations: when restricting to modules that can be decomposed into interval summands, we establish theoretical results about the approximation error between our candidate decompositions and the true underlying module in terms of the standard interleaving and bottleneck distances. Moreover, even when the underlying module does not admit such a decomposition, our candidate decompositions are nonetheless stable invariants; small perturbations in the underlying module lead to small perturbations in the candidate decomposition. Then, we introduce MMA (Multipersistence Module Approximation): an algorithm for computing stable instances of such invariants, which is based on fibered barcodes and exact matchings, two constructions that stem from the theory of single-parameter persistence. By design, MMA can handle an arbitrary number of filtrations, and has bounded complexity and running time. Finally, we present empirical evidence validating the generalization capabilities and running time speed-ups of MMA on several data sets.

In modern machine learning problems we deal with datasets that are either distributed by nature or potentially large for which distributing the computations is usually a standard way to proceed, since centralized algorithms are in general ineffective. We propose a distributed learning approach for mixtures of experts (MoE) models with an aggregation strategy to construct a reduction estimator from local estimators fitted parallelly to distributed subsets of the data. The aggregation is based on an optimal minimization of an expected transportation divergence between the large MoE composed of local estimators and the unknown desired MoE model. We show that the provided reduction estimator is consistent as soon as the local estimators to be aggregated are consistent, and its construction is performed by a proposed majorization-minimization (MM) algorithm that is computationally effective. We study the statistical and numerical properties for the proposed reduction estimator on experiments that demonstrate its performance compared to namely the global estimator constructed in a centralized way from the full dataset. For some situations, the computation time is more than ten times faster, for a comparable performance. Our source codes are publicly available on Github.

Conditional flow matching (CFM) has emerged as a powerful framework for training continuous normalizing flows due to its computational efficiency and effectiveness. However, standard CFM often produces paths that deviate significantly from straight-line interpolations between prior and target distributions, making generation slower and less accurate due to the need for fine discretization at inference. Recent methods enhance CFM performance by inducing shorter and straighter trajectories but typically rely on computationally expensive mini-batch optimal transport (OT). Drawing insights from entropic optimal transport (EOT), we propose Weighted Conditional Flow Matching (W-CFM), a novel approach that modifies the classical CFM loss by weighting each training pair (x, y) with a Gibbs kernel. We show that this weighting recovers the entropic OT coupling up to some bias in the marginals, and we provide the conditions under which the marginals remain nearly unchanged. Moreover, we establish an equivalence between W-CFM and the minibatch OT method in the large-batch limit, showing how our method overcomes computational and performance bottlenecks linked to batch size. Empirically, we test our method on unconditional generation on various synthetic and real datasets, confirming that W-CFM achieves comparable or superior sample quality, fidelity, and diversity to other alternative baselines while maintaining the computational efficiency of vanilla CFM.

Recent work showed that large diffusion models can be reused as highly precise monocular depth estimators by casting depth estimation as an image-conditional image generation task. While the proposed model achieved state-of-the-art results, high computational demands due to multi-step inference limited its use in many scenarios. In this paper, we show that the perceived inefficiency was caused by a flaw in the inference pipeline that has so far gone unnoticed. The fixed model performs comparably to the best previously reported configuration while being more than 200times faster. To optimize for downstream task performance, we perform end-to-end fine-tuning on top of the single-step model with task-specific losses and get a deterministic model that outperforms all other diffusion-based depth and normal estimation models on common zero-shot benchmarks. We surprisingly find that this fine-tuning protocol also works directly on Stable Diffusion and achieves comparable performance to current state-of-the-art diffusion-based depth and normal estimation models, calling into question some of the conclusions drawn from prior works.

Weight-space merging aims to combine multiple fine-tuned LLMs into a single model without retraining, yet most existing approaches remain fundamentally parameter-space heuristics. This creates three practical limitations. First, linear averaging, task vectors, and related rules operate on Euclidean coordinates, even though the desired goal is to merge functionality, i.e., predictive behaviors across tasks. Second, when the source checkpoints are farther apart or more heterogeneous, Euclidean blends often trigger representation collapse, manifested as activation variance shrinkage and effective-rank degradation, which sharply degrades accuracy. Third, many geometry-inspired methods are most natural for two-model interpolation and do not extend cleanly to merging N>2 experts with a principled objective. We address these issues by formulating model merging as computing a weighted Karcher mean on the Fisher--Rao manifold, which is locally equivalent to minimizing a KL-based function distance between predictive distributions. We derive a practical fixed-point algorithm using a lightweight spherical proxy that preserves norms and generalizes directly to multi-expert merging. Across various benchmarks and collapse diagnostics, our method remains stable as the number and heterogeneity of merged models increase, consistently outperforming prior baselines.

We propose a federated averaging Langevin algorithm (FA-LD) for uncertainty quantification and mean predictions with distributed clients. In particular, we generalize beyond normal posterior distributions and consider a general class of models. We develop theoretical guarantees for FA-LD for strongly log-concave distributions with non-i.i.d data and study how the injected noise and the stochastic-gradient noise, the heterogeneity of data, and the varying learning rates affect the convergence. Such an analysis sheds light on the optimal choice of local updates to minimize communication costs. Important to our approach is that the communication efficiency does not deteriorate with the injected noise in the Langevin algorithms. In addition, we examine in our FA-LD algorithm both independent and correlated noise used over different clients. We observe there is a trade-off between the pairs among communication, accuracy, and data privacy. As local devices may become inactive in federated networks, we also show convergence results based on different averaging schemes where only partial device updates are available. In such a case, we discover an additional bias that does not decay to zero.

Model merging combines several independently fine-tuned experts into a single multi-task model without any training data, reducing the storage, serving, and decentralized-development costs of large foundation models. State-of-the-art merging methods formulate merging as a layer-wise quadratic interference minimization problem. Although this problem admits an exact closed-form pseudoinverse solution, that solution underperforms hundreds of iterations of gradient descent in practice. The iterative loop dominates the cost of the pipeline, yet its effectiveness has remained unexplained. We revisit this regime and show that the iterative solver does not primarily act as an optimizer; rather, it serves as an implicit spectral regularizer for an ill-posed normal equation, where small-eigenvalue directions of the per-layer interference operator amplify proxy noise. Building on this finding, we formalize multi-task model merging as a noisy linear inverse problem and propose a spectral filtering estimator parameterized by a per-direction filter. We instantiate this estimator with SWUDI, a closed-form method that combines a soft exponential filter, which matches the gradient-flow trajectory of iterative descent, with a hard top-K truncation that suppresses noise-amplifying small-eigenvalue directions. Furthermore, we propose SWUDI-A, an adaptive variant that replaces the global rank hyperparameter with per-layer rank rules, further improving robustness across architectures. Both variants share a single symmetric eigendecomposition per linear layer and require no training data or optimizer state. Across four general benchmarks and a multimodal merging benchmark spanning VQA, Geometry, Chart, OCR, Grounding, and modality merging, our proposed spectral solvers match or outperform state-of-the-art merging methods. Crucially, they reduce wall-clock time by 28-72x and peak GPU memory by up to 50%.

We propose a novel random walk-based algorithm for unbiased estimation of arbitrary functions of a weighted adjacency matrix, coined universal graph random features (u-GRFs). This includes many of the most popular examples of kernels defined on the nodes of a graph. Our algorithm enjoys subquadratic time complexity with respect to the number of nodes, overcoming the notoriously prohibitive cubic scaling of exact graph kernel evaluation. It can also be trivially distributed across machines, permitting learning on much larger networks. At the heart of the algorithm is a modulation function which upweights or downweights the contribution from different random walks depending on their lengths. We show that by parameterising it with a neural network we can obtain u-GRFs that give higher-quality kernel estimates or perform efficient, scalable kernel learning. We provide robust theoretical analysis and support our findings with experiments including pointwise estimation of fixed graph kernels, solving non-homogeneous graph ordinary differential equations, node clustering and kernel regression on triangular meshes.

In location estimation, we are given n samples from a known distribution f shifted by an unknown translation lambda, and want to estimate lambda as precisely as possible. Asymptotically, the maximum likelihood estimate achieves the Cram\'er-Rao bound of error mathcal N(0, 1{nmathcal I}), where mathcal I is the Fisher information of f. However, the n required for convergence depends on f, and may be arbitrarily large. We build on the theory using smoothed estimators to bound the error for finite n in terms of mathcal I_r, the Fisher information of the r-smoothed distribution. As n to infty, r to 0 at an explicit rate and this converges to the Cram\'er-Rao bound. We (1) improve the prior work for 1-dimensional f to converge for constant failure probability in addition to high probability, and (2) extend the theory to high-dimensional distributions. In the process, we prove a new bound on the norm of a high-dimensional random variable whose 1-dimensional projections are subgamma, which may be of independent interest.

We study the problem of online generalized linear regression in the stochastic setting, where the label is generated from a generalized linear model with possibly unbounded additive noise. We provide a sharp analysis of the classical follow-the-regularized-leader (FTRL) algorithm to cope with the label noise. More specifically, for sigma-sub-Gaussian label noise, our analysis provides a regret upper bound of O(sigma^2 d log T) + o(log T), where d is the dimension of the input vector, T is the total number of rounds. We also prove a Omega(sigma^2dlog(T/d)) lower bound for stochastic online linear regression, which indicates that our upper bound is nearly optimal. In addition, we extend our analysis to a more refined Bernstein noise condition. As an application, we study generalized linear bandits with heteroscedastic noise and propose an algorithm based on FTRL to achieve the first variance-aware regret bound.

Belief Propagation (BP) is a powerful algorithm for distributed inference in probabilistic graphical models, however it quickly becomes infeasible for practical compute and memory budgets. Many efficient, non-parametric forms of BP have been developed, but the most popular is Gaussian Belief Propagation (GBP), a variant that assumes all distributions are locally Gaussian. GBP is widely used due to its efficiency and empirically strong performance in applications like computer vision or sensor networks - even when modelling non-Gaussian problems. In this paper, we seek to provide a theoretical guarantee for when Gaussian approximations are valid in highly non-Gaussian, sparsely-connected factor graphs performing BP (common in spatial AI). We leverage the Central Limit Theorem (CLT) to prove mathematically that variables' beliefs under BP converge to a Gaussian distribution in complex, loopy factor graphs obeying our 4 key assumptions. We then confirm experimentally that variable beliefs become increasingly Gaussian after just a few BP iterations in a stereo depth estimation task.

Few-shot learning aims to transfer the knowledge acquired from training on a diverse set of tasks to unseen tasks from the same task distribution with a limited amount of labeled data. The underlying requirement for effective few-shot generalization is to learn a good representation of the task manifold. This becomes more difficult when only a limited number of tasks are available for training. In such a few-task few-shot setting, it is beneficial to explicitly preserve the local neighborhoods from the task manifold and exploit this to generate artificial tasks for training. To this end, we introduce the notion of interval bounds from the provably robust training literature to few-shot learning. The interval bounds are used to characterize neighborhoods around the training tasks. These neighborhoods can then be preserved by minimizing the distance between a task and its respective bounds. We then use a novel strategy to artificially form new tasks for training by interpolating between the available tasks and their respective interval bounds. We apply our framework to both model-agnostic meta-learning as well as prototype-based metric-learning paradigms. The efficacy of our proposed approach is evident from the improved performance on several datasets from diverse domains compared to current methods.

Scaling laws for dense LLMs under infinite data are well explored, but how sparsity interacts with limited data is not. In this work, we study sparse training in data-constrained regimes where limited unique tokens require multi-epoch training. Our experiments span models up to 1.92B parameters in the fitting set, sparsity up to 93.75%, unique data budgets up to 2.6B tokens, and total training tokens up to 41.6B over 16 epochs; we further validate extrapolation on held-out dense-equivalent models up to 7.68B parameters. We find that: 1. Sparse scaling in data-limited settings: We introduce a scaling law that models loss as a function of active parameters, unique tokens, data repetition, and sparsity, accurately predicting performance across compute and data budgets. 2. Delayed data saturation: sparse training postpones diminishing returns from repeated data, making multi-epoch training more effective. 3. Resource trade-offs: With fixed data, loss-optimal sparsity is moderate ~ 50%, while compute-optimal sparsity is higher and grows with data scale. Overall, sparsity is not just a tool for efficiency, but a mechanism for improving scaling trade-offs under data scarcity. Our code is available at: https://github.com/boqian333/sparse-dc-scaling.

A common assumption holds that enough observational and interventional data, given to a strong enough predictor, suffices. We report a failure mode that contradicts it. Across hundreds of structural causal models, on identified quantities a strong predictor and a Bayesian baseline both succeed, but on unidentified quantities (the couplings between counterfactual worlds) the predictor collapses to a point, on 28% of models to one no valid model can produce, while the truth is an admissible interval more data never narrows. The gap is structural: prediction cannot represent uncertainty over counterfactual couplings. We cast a world model as a single positive semidefinite coupling kernel K(T,T') over admissible worlds, whose diagonal is the ordinary posterior (what a predictor recovers) and whose off-diagonal is the cross-world coupling it cannot, which every counterfactual reads. The paper is the theory of that off-diagonal. It is real: two states with identical posteriors differ on a cross-world query, and the off-diagonal is the coupling that fixes counterfactuals. It can be bounded: positive semidefiniteness is partial-identifying information the marginals lack, and enforcing it bounds counterfactuals in polynomial time where the exact response-type program is intractable. Logical structure sharpens it: ontology axioms tighten the bound by up to a third, propagating to couplings they never touch. It can be acquired: targeted scars, constraints learned from encountered infeasibilities, close the gap several times faster than untargeted ones. Its full reconstruction is approximate counting of the admissible worlds, tractable below the Sly-Sun threshold and inapproximable above; we do not claim to beat the worst case.

Optimal configuration of the learning rate (LR) is a fundamental yet formidable challenge in large-scale pre-training. Given the stringent trade-off between training costs and model performance, the pivotal question is whether the optimal LR can be accurately extrapolated from low-cost experiments. In this paper, we formalize this investigation into two distinct research paradigms: Fitting and Transfer. Within the Fitting Paradigm, we innovatively introduce a Scaling Law for search factor, effectively reducing the search complexity from O(n^3) to O(n*C_D*C_η) via predictive modeling. Within the Transfer Paradigm, we extend the principles of μTransfer to the Mixture of Experts (MoE) architecture, broadening its applicability to encompass model depth, weight decay, and token horizons. By pushing the boundaries of existing hyperparameter research in terms of scale, we conduct a comprehensive comparison between these two paradigms. Our empirical results challenge the scalability of the widely adopted μ Transfer in large-scale pre-training scenarios. Furthermore, we provide a rigorous analysis through the dual lenses of training stability and feature learning to elucidate the underlying reasons why module-wise parameter tuning underperforms in large-scale settings. This work offers systematic practical guidelines and a fresh theoretical perspective for optimizing industrial-level pre-training.

Mixture of experts (MoE) are a popular class of statistical and machine learning models that have gained attention over the years due to their flexibility and efficiency. In this work, we consider Gaussian-gated localized MoE (GLoME) and block-diagonal covariance localized MoE (BLoME) regression models to present nonlinear relationships in heterogeneous data with potential hidden graph-structured interactions between high-dimensional predictors. These models pose difficult statistical estimation and model selection questions, both from a computational and theoretical perspective. This paper is devoted to the study of the problem of model selection among a collection of GLoME or BLoME models characterized by the number of mixture components, the complexity of Gaussian mean experts, and the hidden block-diagonal structures of the covariance matrices, in a penalized maximum likelihood estimation framework. In particular, we establish non-asymptotic risk bounds that take the form of weak oracle inequalities, provided that lower bounds for the penalties hold. The good empirical behavior of our models is then demonstrated on synthetic and real datasets.

Given time series data, how can we answer questions like "what will happen in the future?" and "how did we get here?" These sorts of probabilistic inference questions are challenging when observations are high-dimensional. In this paper, we show how these questions can have compact, closed form solutions in terms of learned representations. The key idea is to apply a variant of contrastive learning to time series data. Prior work already shows that the representations learned by contrastive learning encode a probability ratio. By extending prior work to show that the marginal distribution over representations is Gaussian, we can then prove that joint distribution of representations is also Gaussian. Taken together, these results show that representations learned via temporal contrastive learning follow a Gauss-Markov chain, a graphical model where inference (e.g., prediction, planning) over representations corresponds to inverting a low-dimensional matrix. In one special case, inferring intermediate representations will be equivalent to interpolating between the learned representations. We validate our theory using numerical simulations on tasks up to 46-dimensions.

In this paper, we revisit the problem of sparse linear regression in the local differential privacy (LDP) model. Existing research in the non-interactive and sequentially local models has focused on obtaining the lower bounds for the case where the underlying parameter is 1-sparse, and extending such bounds to the more general k-sparse case has proven to be challenging. Moreover, it is unclear whether efficient non-interactive LDP (NLDP) algorithms exist. To address these issues, we first consider the problem in the epsilon non-interactive LDP model and provide a lower bound of Omega(sqrt{dklog d}{nepsilon}) on the ell_2-norm estimation error for sub-Gaussian data, where n is the sample size and d is the dimension of the space. We propose an innovative NLDP algorithm, the very first of its kind for the problem. As a remarkable outcome, this algorithm also yields a novel and highly efficient estimator as a valuable by-product. Our algorithm achieves an upper bound of O({dsqrt{k}{nepsilon}}) for the estimation error when the data is sub-Gaussian, which can be further improved by a factor of O(d) if the server has additional public but unlabeled data. For the sequentially interactive LDP model, we show a similar lower bound of Omega({sqrt{dk}{nepsilon}}). As for the upper bound, we rectify a previous method and show that it is possible to achieve a bound of O(ksqrt{d}{nepsilon}). Our findings reveal fundamental differences between the non-private case, central DP model, and local DP model in the sparse linear regression problem.

The k-nearest neighbors (kNN) algorithm is a cornerstone of non-parametric classification in artificial intelligence, yet its deployment in large-scale applications is persistently constrained by the computational trade-off between inference speed and accuracy. Existing approximate nearest neighbor solutions accelerate retrieval but often degrade classification precision and lack adaptability in selecting the optimal neighborhood size (k). Here, we present an adaptive graph model that decouples inference latency from computational complexity. By integrating a Hierarchical Navigable Small World (HNSW) graph with a pre-computed voting mechanism, our framework completely transfers the computational burden of neighbor selection and weighting to the training phase. Within this topological structure, higher graph layers enable rapid navigation, while lower layers encode precise, node-specific decision boundaries with adaptive neighbor counts. Benchmarking against eight state-of-the-art baselines across six diverse datasets, we demonstrate that this architecture significantly accelerates inference speeds, achieving real-time performance, without compromising classification accuracy. These findings offer a scalable, robust solution to the long-standing inference bottleneck of kNN, establishing a new structural paradigm for graph-based nonparametric learning.