Daily Papers

Despite the significant potential of FP8 data formats for large language model (LLM) pre-training, their adoption has been limited due to challenges in maintaining stability at scale. Existing approaches often rely on suboptimal fine-grained FP8 kernels or fall back to higher-precision matrix multiplications (GEMMs) in sensitive components, such as attention projections, compromising potential throughput gains. We introduce a new class of LLM architectures that, for the first time, support FP8 computation for all GEMMs within transformer blocks during both forward and backward passes. This enables unprecedented throughput gains, particularly at scale, while matching the downstream performance of standard BF16 training. Our architecture design reduces large outlier activations, promoting stable long-term FP8 training. In addition, we identify key metrics to monitor low-precision training and predict potential future divergences.

FourCastNet 3 advances global weather modeling by implementing a scalable, geometric machine learning (ML) approach to probabilistic ensemble forecasting. The approach is designed to respect spherical geometry and to accurately model the spatially correlated probabilistic nature of the problem, resulting in stable spectra and realistic dynamics across multiple scales. FourCastNet 3 delivers forecasting accuracy that surpasses leading conventional ensemble models and rivals the best diffusion-based methods, while producing forecasts 8 to 60 times faster than these approaches. In contrast to other ML approaches, FourCastNet 3 demonstrates excellent probabilistic calibration and retains realistic spectra, even at extended lead times of up to 60 days. All of these advances are realized using a purely convolutional neural network architecture tailored for spherical geometry. Scalable and efficient large-scale training on 1024 GPUs and more is enabled by a novel training paradigm for combined model- and data-parallelism, inspired by domain decomposition methods in classical numerical models. Additionally, FourCastNet 3 enables rapid inference on a single GPU, producing a 60-day global forecast at 0.25{\deg}, 6-hourly resolution in under 4 minutes. Its computational efficiency, medium-range probabilistic skill, spectral fidelity, and rollout stability at subseasonal timescales make it a strong candidate for improving meteorological forecasting and early warning systems through large ensemble predictions.

3D policy learning promises superior generalization and cross-embodiment transfer, but progress has been hindered by training instabilities and severe overfitting, precluding the adoption of powerful 3D perception models. In this work, we systematically diagnose these failures, identifying the omission of 3D data augmentation and the adverse effects of Batch Normalization as primary causes. We propose a new architecture coupling a scalable transformer-based 3D encoder with a diffusion decoder, engineered specifically for stability at scale and designed to leverage large-scale pre-training. Our approach significantly outperforms state-of-the-art 3D baselines on challenging manipulation benchmarks, establishing a new and robust foundation for scalable 3D imitation learning. Project Page: https://r3d-policy.github.io/

Reinforcement learning (RL) is a core approach for robot control when expert demonstrations are unavailable. On-policy methods such as Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) are widely used for their stability, but their reliance on narrowly distributed on-policy data limits accurate policy evaluation in high-dimensional state and action spaces. Off-policy methods can overcome this limitation by learning from a broader state-action distribution, yet suffer from slow convergence and instability, as fitting a value function over diverse data requires many gradient updates, causing critic errors to accumulate through bootstrapping. We present FlashSAC, a fast and stable off-policy RL algorithm built on Soft Actor-Critic. Motivated by scaling laws observed in supervised learning, FlashSAC sharply reduces gradient updates while compensating with larger models and higher data throughput. To maintain stability at increased scale, FlashSAC explicitly bounds weight, feature, and gradient norms, curbing critic error accumulation. Across over 60 tasks in 10 simulators, FlashSAC consistently outperforms PPO and strong off-policy baselines in both final performance and training efficiency, with the largest gains on high-dimensional tasks such as dexterous manipulation. In sim-to-real humanoid locomotion, FlashSAC reduces training time from hours to minutes, demonstrating the promise of off-policy RL for sim-to-real transfer.

As a key medium for human interaction and information exchange, social networking services (SNS) pose unique challenges for large language models (LLMs): heterogeneous workloads, fast-shifting norms and slang, and multilingual, culturally diverse corpora that induce sharp distribution shift. Supervised fine-tuning (SFT) can specialize models but often triggers a ``seesaw'' between in-distribution gains and out-of-distribution robustness, especially for smaller models. To address these challenges, we introduce RedOne 2.0, an SNS-oriented LLM trained with a progressive, RL-prioritized post-training paradigm designed for rapid and stable adaptation. The pipeline consist in three stages: (1) Exploratory Learning on curated SNS corpora to establish initial alignment and identify systematic weaknesses; (2) Targeted Fine-Tuning that selectively applies SFT to the diagnosed gaps while mixing a small fraction of general data to mitigate forgetting; and (3) Refinement Learning that re-applies RL with SNS-centric signals to consolidate improvements and harmonize trade-offs across tasks. Across various tasks spanning three categories, our 4B scale model delivers an average improvements about 2.41 over the 7B sub-optimal baseline. Additionally, RedOne 2.0 achieves average performance lift about 8.74 from the base model with less than half the data required by SFT-centric method RedOne, evidencing superior data efficiency and stability at compact scales. Overall, RedOne 2.0 establishes a competitive, cost-effective baseline for domain-specific LLMs in SNS scenario, advancing capability without sacrificing robustness.

Large Transformers have achieved state-of-the-art performance across many tasks. Most open-source libraries on scaling Transformers focus on improving training or inference with better parallelization. In this work, we present TorchScale, an open-source toolkit that allows researchers and developers to scale up Transformers efficiently and effectively. TorchScale has the implementation of several modeling techniques, which can improve modeling generality and capability, as well as training stability and efficiency. Experimental results on language modeling and neural machine translation demonstrate that TorchScale can successfully scale Transformers to different sizes without tears. The library is available at https://aka.ms/torchscale.

As available training data approaches its physical limit, gains from Scaling Laws have begun to diminish. Consequently, improving Large Language Models (LLMs) now depends less on data expansion and more on higher-quality data utilization. However, in the context of large-scale corpora, existing refinement methodologies face significant limitations in quality, efficiency, and reliability: Rule-based approaches are constrained by fixed heuristics and struggle with instance-level variations; LLM-based approaches improve quality but fail to meet the efficiency and reliability requirements of large-scale data processing. To address these challenges, we propose UltraX, a function-calling refinement framework for large-scale pre-training data that completes the editing function space by introducing insertion in addition to deletion and modification, enabling fine-grained instance-level editing. Specifically, UltraX builds a reliable program-supervision generation pipeline. In this pipeline, dataset-adaptive prompt optimization first guides an expert LLM to produce high-quality end-to-end refined texts, and Line Alignment Mapping and Dynamic Context Replacement then convert original-refined text pairs into structured program supervision. Meanwhile, UltraX improves supervision quality and stabilizes the training distribution with low-confidence example filtering and ratio-controlled sampling by operation combination. During inference and execution, it normalizes and validates model outputs through sliding-window prediction, global operation aggregation, and systematic post-processing, improving the stability and reliability of large-scale execution. Experiments show that UltraX achieves the highest average performance across all corpora and also matches or surpasses baselines with fewer training tokens, demonstrating stronger data efficiency and refinement reliability.

Teams that have trained large Transformer-based models have reported training instabilities at large scale that did not appear when training with the same hyperparameters at smaller scales. Although the causes of such instabilities are of scientific interest, the amount of resources required to reproduce them has made investigation difficult. In this work, we seek ways to reproduce and study training stability and instability at smaller scales. First, we focus on two sources of training instability described in previous work: the growth of logits in attention layers (Dehghani et al., 2023) and divergence of the output logits from the log probabilities (Chowdhery et al., 2022). By measuring the relationship between learning rate and loss across scales, we show that these instabilities also appear in small models when training at high learning rates, and that mitigations previously employed at large scales are equally effective in this regime. This prompts us to investigate the extent to which other known optimizer and model interventions influence the sensitivity of the final loss to changes in the learning rate. To this end, we study methods such as warm-up, weight decay, and the muParam (Yang et al., 2022), and combine techniques to train small models that achieve similar losses across orders of magnitude of learning rate variation. Finally, to conclude our exploration we study two cases where instabilities can be predicted before they emerge by examining the scaling behavior of model activation and gradient norms.

The rapid adoption of large language models (LLMs) has created significant challenges for efficient inference at scale. Unlike traditional workloads, LLM inference is constrained by both computation and the memory overhead of key-value (KV) caching, which accelerates decoding but quickly exhausts GPU memory. In this paper, we introduce the first queueing-theoretic framework that explicitly incorporates both computation and GPU memory constraints into the analysis of LLM inference. Based on this framework, we derive rigorous stability and instability conditions that determine whether an LLM inference service can sustain incoming demand without unbounded queue growth. This result offers a powerful tool for system deployment, potentially addressing the core challenge of GPU provisioning. By combining an estimated request arrival rate with our derived stable service rate, operators can calculate the necessary cluster size to avoid both costly over-purchasing and performance-violating under-provisioning. We further validate our theoretical predictions through extensive experiments in real GPU production environments. Our results show that the predicted stability conditions are highly accurate, with deviations typically within 10%.

Recent frontier large language models predominantly rely on Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architectures. Despite empirical progress, there is still no principled understanding of how hyperparameters should scale with network width N, expert width N_e, number of experts M, sparsity K, and depth L to ensure both stability and optimal performance at scale. We take a principled step toward resolving this gap by analyzing three different scaling regimes: (I) co-scaling Nasymp N_e, (II) co-scaling Nasymp Masymp K, and (III) full proportional scaling of N, N_e, M, and K. For each regime, we develop a novel Dynamical Mean Field Theory (DMFT) description of the limiting training dynamics of MoEs that provides a formal foundation for our analysis. Within this framework, we derive the unique parameterization for SGD and Adam satisfying all maximal-update (μ) desiderata. We then show that the resulting μP prescription does not reliably induce monotonic improvement with scale or robust learning-rate transfer. We trace these pathologies to scale-dependent observables in the aggregation dynamics, which motivates a refined set of desiderata that we term maximal scale stability. Guided by this principle, we derive a Maximally Scale-Stable Parameterization (MSSP) for both SGD and Adam in all three scaling regimes, and characterize the corresponding limiting dynamics - qualitatively distinct from the μP limit - through a separate DMFT analysis. Experiments verify that MSSP robustly recovers learning rate transfer and monotonic improvement with scale across regimes. Combined with existing depth-scaling theory, these results provide a complete scaling prescription for MoE architectures as a function of width, depth, expert width, and number of experts.

We present the design, implementation and engineering experience in building and deploying MegaScale, a production system for training large language models (LLMs) at the scale of more than 10,000 GPUs. Training LLMs at this scale brings unprecedented challenges to training efficiency and stability. We take a full-stack approach that co-designs the algorithmic and system components across model block and optimizer design, computation and communication overlapping, operator optimization, data pipeline, and network performance tuning. Maintaining high efficiency throughout the training process (i.e., stability) is an important consideration in production given the long extent of LLM training jobs. Many hard stability issues only emerge at large scale, and in-depth observability is the key to address them. We develop a set of diagnosis tools to monitor system components and events deep in the stack, identify root causes, and derive effective techniques to achieve fault tolerance and mitigate stragglers. MegaScale achieves 55.2% Model FLOPs Utilization (MFU) when training a 175B LLM model on 12,288 GPUs, improving the MFU by 1.34x compared to Megatron-LM. We share our operational experience in identifying and fixing failures and stragglers. We hope by articulating the problems and sharing our experience from a systems perspective, this work can inspire future LLM systems research.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated exceptional performance across diverse tasks, yet their training remains highly resource-intensive and susceptible to critical challenges such as training instability. A predominant source of this instability stems from gradient and loss spikes, which disrupt the learning process, often leading to costly interventions like checkpoint recovery and experiment restarts, further amplifying inefficiencies. This paper presents a comprehensive investigation into gradient spikes observed during LLM training, revealing their prevalence across multiple architectures and datasets. Our analysis shows that these spikes can be up to 1000times larger than typical gradients, substantially deteriorating model performance. To address this issue, we propose Spike-Aware Adam with Momentum Reset SPAM, a novel optimizer designed to counteract gradient spikes through momentum reset and spike-aware gradient clipping. Extensive experiments, including both pre-training and fine-tuning, demonstrate that SPAM consistently surpasses Adam and its variants across various tasks, including (1) LLM pre-training from 60M to 1B, (2) 4-bit LLM pre-training,(3) reinforcement learning, and (4) Time Series Forecasting. Additionally, SPAM facilitates memory-efficient training by enabling sparse momentum, where only a subset of momentum terms are maintained and updated. When operating under memory constraints, SPAM outperforms state-of-the-art memory-efficient optimizers such as GaLore and Adam-Mini. Our work underscores the importance of mitigating gradient spikes in LLM training and introduces an effective optimization strategy that enhances both training stability and resource efficiency at scale. Code is available at https://github.com/TianjinYellow/SPAM-Optimizer.git

Autoregressive (AR) diffusion enables streaming, interactive long-video generation by producing frames causally, yet maintaining coherence over minute-scale horizons remains challenging due to accumulated errors, motion drift, and content repetition. We approach this problem from a memory perspective, treating video synthesis as a recurrent dynamical process that requires coordinated short- and long-term context. We propose VideoSSM, a Long Video Model that unifies AR diffusion with a hybrid state-space memory. The state-space model (SSM) serves as an evolving global memory of scene dynamics across the entire sequence, while a context window provides local memory for motion cues and fine details. This hybrid design preserves global consistency without frozen, repetitive patterns, supports prompt-adaptive interaction, and scales in linear time with sequence length. Experiments on short- and long-range benchmarks demonstrate state-of-the-art temporal consistency and motion stability among autoregressive video generator especially at minute-scale horizons, enabling content diversity and interactive prompt-based control, thereby establishing a scalable, memory-aware framework for long video generation.

With the development of large language models (LLMs), particularly with the introduction of the long reasoning chain technique, the reasoning ability of LLMs in complex problem-solving has been significantly enhanced. While acknowledging the power of long reasoning chains, we cannot help but wonder: Why do different reasoning chains perform differently in reasoning? What components of the reasoning chains play a key role? Existing studies mainly focus on evaluating reasoning chains from a functional perspective, with little attention paid to their structural mechanisms. To address this gap, this work is the first to analyze and evaluate the quality of the reasoning chain from a structural perspective. We apply persistent homology from Topological Data Analysis (TDA) to map reasoning steps into semantic space, extract topological features, and analyze structural changes. These changes reveal semantic coherence, logical redundancy, and identify logical breaks and gaps. By calculating homology groups, we assess connectivity and redundancy at various scales, using barcode and persistence diagrams to quantify stability and consistency. Our results show that the topological structural complexity of reasoning chains correlates positively with accuracy. More complex chains identify correct answers sooner, while successful reasoning exhibits simpler topologies, reducing redundancy and cycles, enhancing efficiency and interpretability. This work provides a new perspective on reasoning chain quality assessment and offers guidance for future optimization.

Multi-agent systems (MAS) have emerged as a promising paradigm for solving complex tasks. Recent work has explored self-evolving MAS that automatically optimize agent capabilities or communication topologies. However, existing methods either learn a topology that remains fixed at inference time or adapt only the topology or capability during inference. We empirically and theoretically show that effective test-time evolution requires jointly adapting both axes, but on different time scales: capabilities should update rapidly to handle emerging subtasks, while the topology should evolve more slowly to preserve coordination stability. We then introduce TacoMAS, a test-time co-evolution framework for dynamic MAS. TacoMAS formulates MAS inference as a task of online graph adaptation, where nodes represent agents with role-specific capabilities and edges define their communication topology. During inference, a fast capability loop updates agent expertise using trajectory-level feedback, while a slow meta-LLM-driven topology loop performs agents' birth-death operations on MAS, including edge edit, agent addition, and agent removal. We further show that this fast-slow design drives MAS evolution toward a task-conditioned stable equilibrium. Experiments on four benchmarks demonstrate that TacoMAS outperforms nearly 20 multi-agent baselines, achieving an average improvement of 13.3% over the strongest baseline. The codes are released at https://github.com/chenxu2-gif/TacoMAS-MultiAgent.

Evaluating large language model (LLM)-based multi-agent systems remains a critical challenge, as these systems must exhibit reliable coordination, transparent decision-making, and verifiable performance across evolving tasks. Existing evaluation approaches often limit themselves to single-response scoring or narrow benchmarks, which lack stability, extensibility, and automation when deployed in enterprise settings at multi-agent scale. We present AEMA (Adaptive Evaluation Multi-Agent), a process-aware and auditable framework that plans, executes, and aggregates multi-step evaluations across heterogeneous agentic workflows under human oversight. Compared to a single LLM-as-a-Judge, AEMA achieves greater stability, human alignment, and traceable records that support accountable automation. Our results on enterprise-style agent workflows simulated using realistic business scenarios demonstrate that AEMA provides a transparent and reproducible pathway toward responsible evaluation of LLM-based multi-agent systems. Keywords Agentic AI, Multi-Agent Systems, Trustworthy AI, Verifiable Evaluation, Human Oversight

Large language models are increasingly trained as heterogeneous systems spanning multiple domains, expert partitions, and agentic pipelines, yet prevalent proximal objectives operate at a single scale and lack a principled mechanism for coupling token-level, trajectory-level, and higher-level hierarchical stability control. To bridge this gap, we derive the Aggregational Policy Censoring Objective (APC-Obj), the first exact unconstrained reformulation of sample-based TV-TRPO, establishing that clipping-based surrogate design and trust-region optimization are dual formulations of the same problem. Building on this foundation, we develop Fiber Bundle Gating (FBG), an algebraic framework that organizes sampled RL data as a fiber bundle and decomposes ratio gating into a base-level gate on trajectory aggregates and a fiber-level gate on per-token residuals, with provable first-order agreement with the true RL objective near on-policy. From APC-Obj and FBG we derive Fibration Policy Optimization (or simply, FiberPO), a concrete objective whose Jacobian is block-diagonal over trajectories, reduces to identity at on-policy, and provides better update direction thus improving token efficiency. The compositional nature of the framework extends beyond the trajectory-token case: fibrations compose algebraically into a Fibration Gating Hierarchy (FGH) that scales the same gating mechanism to arbitrary hierarchical depth without new primitives, as demonstrated by FiberPO-Domain, a four-level instantiation with independent trust-region budgets at the domain, prompt group, trajectory, and token levels. Together, these results connect the trust-region theory, a compositional algebraic structure, and practical multi-scale stability control into a unified framework for LLM policy optimization.

In this work, we introduce PhononBench, the first large-scale benchmark for dynamical stability in AI-generated crystals. Leveraging the recently developed MatterSim interatomic potential, which achieves DFT-level accuracy in phonon predictions across more than 10,000 materials, PhononBench enables efficient large-scale phonon calculations and dynamical-stability analysis for 108,843 crystal structures generated by six leading crystal generation models. PhononBench reveals a widespread limitation of current generative models in ensuring dynamical stability: the average dynamical-stability rate across all generated structures is only 25.83%, with the top-performing model, MatterGen, reaching just 41.0%. Further case studies show that in property-targeted generation-illustrated here by band-gap conditioning with MatterGen--the dynamical-stability rate remains as low as 23.5% even at the optimal band-gap condition of 0.5 eV. In space-group-controlled generation, higher-symmetry crystals exhibit better stability (e.g., cubic systems achieve rates up to 49.2%), yet the average stability across all controlled generations is still only 34.4%. An important additional outcome of this study is the identification of 28,119 crystal structures that are phonon-stable across the entire Brillouin zone, providing a substantial pool of reliable candidates for future materials exploration. By establishing the first large-scale dynamical-stability benchmark, this work systematically highlights the current limitations of crystal generation models and offers essential evaluation criteria and guidance for their future development toward the design and discovery of physically viable materials. All model-generated crystal structures, phonon calculation results, and the high-throughput evaluation workflows developed in PhononBench will be openly released at https://github.com/xqh19970407/PhononBench

Large Language Models (LLMs) today are powerful problem solvers across many domains, and they continue to get stronger as they scale in model size, training set size, and training set quality, as shown by extensive research and experimentation across the industry. Training a frontier model today requires on the order of tens to hundreds of yottaflops, which is a massive investment of time, compute, and energy. Improving pretraining efficiency is therefore essential to enable the next generation of even more capable LLMs. While 8-bit floating point (FP8) training is now widely adopted, transitioning to even narrower precision, such as 4-bit floating point (FP4), could unlock additional improvements in computational speed and resource utilization. However, quantization at this level poses challenges to training stability, convergence, and implementation, notably for large-scale models trained on long token horizons. In this study, we introduce a novel approach for stable and accurate training of large language models (LLMs) using the NVFP4 format. Our method integrates Random Hadamard transforms (RHT) to bound block-level outliers, employs a two-dimensional quantization scheme for consistent representations across both the forward and backward passes, utilizes stochastic rounding for unbiased gradient estimation, and incorporates selective high-precision layers. We validate our approach by training a 12-billion-parameter model on 10 trillion tokens -- the longest publicly documented training run in 4-bit precision to date. Our results show that the model trained with our NVFP4-based pretraining technique achieves training loss and downstream task accuracies comparable to an FP8 baseline. These findings highlight that NVFP4, when combined with our training approach, represents a major step forward in narrow-precision LLM training algorithms.

Online novel view synthesis remains challenging, requiring robust scene reconstruction from sequential, often unposed, observations. We present ReCoSplat, an autoregressive feed-forward Gaussian Splatting model supporting posed or unposed inputs, with or without camera intrinsics. While assembling local Gaussians using camera poses scales better than canonical-space prediction, it creates a dilemma during training: using ground-truth poses ensures stability but causes a distribution mismatch when predicted poses are used at inference. To address this, we introduce a Render-and-Compare (ReCo) module. ReCo renders the current reconstruction from the predicted viewpoint and compares it with the incoming observation, providing a stable conditioning signal that compensates for pose errors. To support long sequences, we propose a hybrid KV cache compression strategy combining early-layer truncation with chunk-level selective retention, reducing the KV cache size by over 90% for 100+ frames. ReCoSplat achieves state-of-the-art performance across different input settings on both in- and out-of-distribution benchmarks. Code and pretrained models will be released. Our project page is at https://freemancheng.com/ReCoSplat .

Layer-wise normalization (LN) is an essential component of virtually all transformer-based large language models. While its effects on training stability are well documented, its role at inference time is poorly understood. Additionally, LN layers hinder mechanistic interpretability by introducing additional nonlinearities and increasing the interconnectedness of individual model components. Here, we show that all LN layers can be removed from every GPT-2 model with only a small increase in validation loss (e.g. +0.03 cross-entropy loss for GPT-2 XL). Thus, LN cannot play a substantial role in language modeling. We find that the amount of fine-tuning data needed for LN removal grows sublinearly with model parameters, suggesting scaling to larger models is feasible. We release a suite of LN-free GPT-2 models on Hugging Face. Furthermore, we test interpretability techniques on LN-free models. Direct logit attribution now gives the exact direct effect of individual components, while the accuracy of attribution patching does not significantly improve. We also confirm that GPT-2's "confidence neurons" are inactive in the LN-free models. Our work clarifies the role of LN layers in language modeling, showing that GPT-2-class models can function without LN layers. We hope that our LN-free analogs of the GPT-2 family of models will enable more precise interpretability research and improve our understanding of language models.

Grokking, the sudden generalization that occurs after prolonged overfitting, is a surprising phenomenon challenging our understanding of deep learning. Although significant progress has been made in understanding grokking, the reasons behind the delayed generalization and its dependence on regularization remain unclear. In this work, we argue that without regularization, grokking tasks push models to the edge of numerical stability, introducing floating point errors in the Softmax function, which we refer to as Softmax Collapse (SC). We demonstrate that SC prevents grokking and that mitigating SC enables grokking without regularization. Investigating the root cause of SC, we find that beyond the point of overfitting, the gradients strongly align with what we call the na\"ive loss minimization (NLM) direction. This component of the gradient does not alter the model's predictions but decreases the loss by scaling the logits, typically by scaling the weights along their current direction. We show that this scaling of the logits explains the delay in generalization characteristic of grokking and eventually leads to SC, halting further learning. To validate our hypotheses, we introduce two key contributions that address the challenges in grokking tasks: StableMax, a new activation function that prevents SC and enables grokking without regularization, and perpGrad, a training algorithm that promotes quick generalization in grokking tasks by preventing NLM altogether. These contributions provide new insights into grokking, elucidating its delayed generalization, reliance on regularization, and the effectiveness of existing grokking-inducing methods. Code for this paper is available at https://github.com/LucasPrietoAl/grokking-at-the-edge-of-numerical-stability.

Dynamic Sparse Training (DST) offers a promising paradigm for improving the training and inference efficiency of deep neural networks; however, we find that in large language model training, DST can suffer from optimization instability, manifested as loss spikes after topology updates. In this work, we show that the naive use of standard Adam-based optimizers leads to a cold-start issue for newly regrown parameters, resulting in excessively large updates and disrupted training dynamics. To address this issue, we propose Sparse Memory-Efficient Training (SMET), which stabilizes DST with optimizer warm-up and improves training progress through density-aware learning-rate scaling. SMET further reduces memory consumption by storing gradients and optimizer states only for active parameters. We provide a theoretical analysis of the update behaviors under SMET, showing improved optimization stability. Extensive experiments demonstrate that SMET enables stable, scalable, and memory-efficient sparse pre-training of LLMs, paving the way for sparse training as a practical alternative to dense training. Our code is publicly available at: https://github.com/QiaoXiao7282/SMET.

The core of Transferable Utility (T.U.) games is a well-known solution concept from cooperative game theory yielding a cost allocation among n agents (called players) forming a coalition that is stable (i.e. no subset of players has an interest to deviate). In this paper, inspired by a practical application in the context of a decision support system for collaborative transportation in a Short Food Supply Chain (SFSC), we mainly focus on Traveling Salesman Games (TSGs), where the objective is to allocate the cost of a Traveling Salesman Problem (TSP) with n locations and 1 depot to n players, each linked to exactly one of the locations. Given the computational complexity of computing an element of the core and the cost of a TSP, we study semicore allocations: a relaxation of the core that only requires that the subsets of size n -1 and of size 1 do not wish to deviate from the coalition. In the literature, instances of TSGs with empty cores and semicores are found. Hence, this paper first surveys the methods to approximate stability whenever the core is empty, such as the cost of stability (computing the minimum amount of money to subsidize the coalition with to attain stability) and the ε-core (which is a set of allocations that allow subsets of players to exceed their actual cost, but at most of a value of ε). We prove that these two solution

We present Stable Video Diffusion - a latent video diffusion model for high-resolution, state-of-the-art text-to-video and image-to-video generation. Recently, latent diffusion models trained for 2D image synthesis have been turned into generative video models by inserting temporal layers and finetuning them on small, high-quality video datasets. However, training methods in the literature vary widely, and the field has yet to agree on a unified strategy for curating video data. In this paper, we identify and evaluate three different stages for successful training of video LDMs: text-to-image pretraining, video pretraining, and high-quality video finetuning. Furthermore, we demonstrate the necessity of a well-curated pretraining dataset for generating high-quality videos and present a systematic curation process to train a strong base model, including captioning and filtering strategies. We then explore the impact of finetuning our base model on high-quality data and train a text-to-video model that is competitive with closed-source video generation. We also show that our base model provides a powerful motion representation for downstream tasks such as image-to-video generation and adaptability to camera motion-specific LoRA modules. Finally, we demonstrate that our model provides a strong multi-view 3D-prior and can serve as a base to finetune a multi-view diffusion model that jointly generates multiple views of objects in a feedforward fashion, outperforming image-based methods at a fraction of their compute budget. We release code and model weights at https://github.com/Stability-AI/generative-models .

First-Frame Propagation (FFP) offers a promising paradigm for controllable video editing, but existing methods are hampered by a reliance on cumbersome run-time guidance. We identify the root cause of this limitation as the inadequacy of current training datasets, which are often too short, low-resolution, and lack the task diversity required to teach robust temporal priors. To address this foundational data gap, we first introduce FFP-300K, a new large-scale dataset comprising 300K high-fidelity video pairs at 720p resolution and 81 frames in length, constructed via a principled two-track pipeline for diverse local and global edits. Building on this dataset, we propose a novel framework designed for true guidance-free FFP that resolves the critical tension between maintaining first-frame appearance and preserving source video motion. Architecturally, we introduce Adaptive Spatio-Temporal RoPE (AST-RoPE), which dynamically remaps positional encodings to disentangle appearance and motion references. At the objective level, we employ a self-distillation strategy where an identity propagation task acts as a powerful regularizer, ensuring long-term temporal stability and preventing semantic drift. Comprehensive experiments on the EditVerseBench benchmark demonstrate that our method significantly outperforming existing academic and commercial models by receiving about 0.2 PickScore and 0.3 VLM score improvement against these competitors.

Prompt routing dynamically selects the most appropriate large language model from a pool of candidates for each query, optimizing performance while managing costs. As model pools scale to include dozens of frontier models with narrow performance gaps, existing approaches face significant challenges: manually defined task taxonomies cannot capture fine-grained capability distinctions, while monolithic routers struggle to differentiate subtle differences across diverse tasks. We propose a two-stage routing architecture that addresses these limitations through automated fine-grained task discovery and task-aware quality estimation. Our first stage employs graph-based clustering to discover latent task types and trains a classifier to assign prompts to discovered tasks. The second stage uses a mixture-of-experts architecture with task-specific prediction heads for specialized quality estimates. At inference, we aggregate predictions from both stages to balance task-level stability with prompt-specific adaptability. Evaluated on 10 benchmarks with 11 frontier models, our method consistently outperforms existing baselines and surpasses the strongest individual model while incurring less than half its cost.

We release Super Apriel, a 15B-parameter supernet in which every decoder layer provides four trained mixer choices -- Full Attention (FA), Sliding Window Attention (SWA), Kimi Delta Attention (KDA), and Gated DeltaNet (GDN). A placement selects one mixer per layer; placements can be switched between requests at serving time without reloading weights, enabling multiple speed presets from a single checkpoint. The shared checkpoint also enables speculative decoding without a separate draft model. The all-FA preset matches the Apriel 1.6 teacher on all reported benchmarks; recommended hybrid presets span 2.9times to 10.7times decode throughput at 96% to 77% quality retention, with throughput advantages that compound at longer context lengths. With four mixer types across 48 layers, the configuration space is vast. A surrogate that predicts placement quality from the per-layer mixer assignment makes the speed-quality landscape tractable and identifies the best tradeoffs at each speed level. We investigate whether the best configurations at each speed level can be identified early in training or only after convergence. Rankings stabilize quickly at 0.5B scale, but the most efficient configurations exhibit higher instability at 15B, cautioning against extrapolation from smaller models. Super Apriel is trained by stochastic distillation from a frozen Apriel 1.6 teacher, followed by supervised fine-tuning. We release the supernet weights, Fast-LLM training code, vLLM serving code, and a placement optimization toolkit.

This paper introduces AIM, a collection of vision models pre-trained with an autoregressive objective. These models are inspired by their textual counterparts, i.e., Large Language Models (LLMs), and exhibit similar scaling properties. Specifically, we highlight two key findings: (1) the performance of the visual features scale with both the model capacity and the quantity of data, (2) the value of the objective function correlates with the performance of the model on downstream tasks. We illustrate the practical implication of these findings by pre-training a 7 billion parameter AIM on 2 billion images, that achieves 84.0% on ImageNet-1k with a frozen trunk. Interestingly, even at this scale, we observe no sign of saturation in performance, suggesting that AIM potentially represents a new frontier for training large-scale vision models. The pre-training of AIM is similar to the pre-training of LLMs, and does not require any image-specific strategy to stabilize the training at scale.

The entry of large language models (LLMs) into research and commercial spaces has led to a trend of ever-larger models, with initial promises of generalisability, followed by a widespread desire to downsize and create specialised models without the need for complete fine-tuning, using Parameter Efficient Fine-tuning (PEFT) methods. We present an investigation into the suitability of different PEFT methods to clinical decision-making tasks, across a range of model sizes, including extremely small models with as few as 25 million parameters. Our analysis shows that the performance of most PEFT approaches varies significantly from one task to another, with the exception of LoRA, which maintains relatively high performance across all model sizes and tasks, typically approaching or matching full fine-tuned performance. The effectiveness of PEFT methods in the clinical domain is evident, particularly for specialised models which can operate on low-cost, in-house computing infrastructure. The advantages of these models, in terms of speed and reduced training costs, dramatically outweighs any performance gain from large foundation LLMs. Furthermore, we highlight how domain-specific pre-training interacts with PEFT methods and model size, and discuss how these factors interplay to provide the best efficiency-performance trade-off. Full code available at: tbd.

Data quantity and quality play a vital role in determining the performance of Large Language Models (LLMs). High-quality data, in particular, can significantly boost the LLM's ability to generalize on a wide range of downstream tasks. Large pre-training datasets for leading LLMs remain inaccessible to the public, whereas many open datasets are small in size (less than 5 trillion tokens), limiting their suitability for training large models. In this paper, we introduce GneissWeb, a large dataset yielding around 10 trillion tokens that caters to the data quality and quantity requirements of training LLMs. Our GneissWeb recipe that produced the dataset consists of sharded exact sub-string deduplication and a judiciously constructed ensemble of quality filters. GneissWeb achieves a favorable trade-off between data quality and quantity, producing models that outperform models trained on state-of-the-art open large datasets (5+ trillion tokens). We show that models trained using GneissWeb dataset outperform those trained on FineWeb-V1.1.0 by 2.73 percentage points in terms of average score computed on a set of 11 commonly used benchmarks (both zero-shot and few-shot) for pre-training dataset evaluation. When the evaluation set is extended to 20 benchmarks (both zero-shot and few-shot), models trained using GneissWeb still achieve a 1.75 percentage points advantage over those trained on FineWeb-V1.1.0.

We launch EVA, a vision-centric foundation model to explore the limits of visual representation at scale using only publicly accessible data. EVA is a vanilla ViT pre-trained to reconstruct the masked out image-text aligned vision features conditioned on visible image patches. Via this pretext task, we can efficiently scale up EVA to one billion parameters, and sets new records on a broad range of representative vision downstream tasks, such as image recognition, video action recognition, object detection, instance segmentation and semantic segmentation without heavy supervised training. Moreover, we observe quantitative changes in scaling EVA result in qualitative changes in transfer learning performance that are not present in other models. For instance, EVA takes a great leap in the challenging large vocabulary instance segmentation task: our model achieves almost the same state-of-the-art performance on LVISv1.0 dataset with over a thousand categories and COCO dataset with only eighty categories. Beyond a pure vision encoder, EVA can also serve as a vision-centric, multi-modal pivot to connect images and text. We find initializing the vision tower of a giant CLIP from EVA can greatly stabilize the training and outperform the training from scratch counterpart with much fewer samples and less compute, providing a new direction for scaling up and accelerating the costly training of multi-modal foundation models. To facilitate future research, we release all the code and models at https://github.com/baaivision/EVA.

Matching submissions with suitable reviewers at scale is a growing challenge for major venues, yet existing approaches either rely on coarse proxy signals that conflate general relatedness with true suitability, or require expensive human annotations that are difficult to scale for training. We propose MERIT, a two-stage framework that bridges this gap by converting criterion-level expertise matching into scalable suitability supervision. In the first stage, we train a reviewer assessor via reinforcement learning to identify the expertise dimensions a paper requires, match them against the reviewer's prior work, and produce a suitability decision, with rewards provided by an LLM judge guided by paper-specific expertise rubrics. In the second stage, we distill the assessor's predictions into an embedding-based retriever for efficient large-scale assignment. Experiments show that our 4B reviewer assessor outperforms larger general-purpose LLMs on suitability classification, and the resulting retriever achieves state-of-the-art performance across LR-Bench and the CMU Gold dataset. Our code is available at https://github.com/Luli3220/MERIT.

Recent advances in reinforcement learning have shown that language models can develop sophisticated reasoning through training on tasks with verifiable rewards, but these approaches depend on human-curated problem-answer pairs and domain-specific reward engineering. We introduce SPIRAL, a self-play framework where models learn by playing multi-turn, zero-sum games against continuously improving versions of themselves, eliminating the need for human supervision. Through self-play, SPIRAL generates an infinite curriculum of progressively challenging problems as models must constantly adapt to stronger opponents. To enable this self-play training at scale, We implement a fully online, multi-turn, multi-agent reinforcement learning system for LLMs and propose role-conditioned advantage estimation (RAE) to stabilize multi-agent training. Using SPIRAL, self-play on zero-sum games produces reasoning capabilities that transfer broadly. Training Qwen3-4B-Base on Kuhn Poker alone achieves 8.6% improvement on math and 8.4% on general reasoning, outperforming SFT on 25,000 expert game trajectories. Analysis reveals that this transfer occurs through three cognitive patterns: systematic decomposition, expected value calculation, and case-by-case analysis. Multi-game training (TicTacToe, Kuhn Poker, Simple Negotiation) further enhances performance as each game develops distinct reasoning strengths. Applying SPIRAL to a strong reasoning model (DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Qwen-7B) can still lead to 2.0% average improvement. These results demonstrate that zero-sum games naturally develop transferable reasoning capabilities, highlighting a promising direction for autonomous reasoning development.

Learning generalizable manipulation policies hinges on data, yet robot manipulation data is scarce and often entangled with specific embodiments, making both cross-task and cross-platform transfer difficult. We tackle this challenge with task-agnostic embodiment modeling, which learns embodiment dynamics directly from task-agnostic action data and decouples them from high-level policy learning. By focusing on exploring all feasible actions of the embodiment to capture what is physically feasible and consistent, task-agnostic data takes the form of independent image-action pairs with the potential to cover the entire embodiment workspace, unlike task-specific data, which is sequential and tied to concrete tasks. This data-driven perspective bypasses the limitations of traditional dynamics-based modeling and enables scalable reuse of action data across different tasks. Building on this principle, we introduce AnyPos, a unified pipeline that integrates large-scale automated task-agnostic exploration with robust embodiment modeling through inverse dynamics learning. AnyPos generates diverse yet safe trajectories at scale, then learns embodiment representations by decoupling arm and end-effector motions and employing a direction-aware decoder to stabilize predictions under distribution shift, which can be seamlessly coupled with diverse high-level policy models. In comparison to the standard baseline, AnyPos achieves a 51% improvement in test accuracy. On manipulation tasks such as operating a microwave, toasting bread, folding clothes, watering plants, and scrubbing plates, AnyPos raises success rates by 30-40% over strong baselines. These results highlight data-driven embodiment modeling as a practical route to overcoming data scarcity and achieving generalization across tasks and platforms in visuomotor control. Project page: https://embodiedfoundation.github.io/vidar_anypos.

In diffusion models, UNet is the most popular network backbone, since its long skip connects (LSCs) to connect distant network blocks can aggregate long-distant information and alleviate vanishing gradient. Unfortunately, UNet often suffers from unstable training in diffusion models which can be alleviated by scaling its LSC coefficients smaller. However, theoretical understandings of the instability of UNet in diffusion models and also the performance improvement of LSC scaling remain absent yet. To solve this issue, we theoretically show that the coefficients of LSCs in UNet have big effects on the stableness of the forward and backward propagation and robustness of UNet. Specifically, the hidden feature and gradient of UNet at any layer can oscillate and their oscillation ranges are actually large which explains the instability of UNet training. Moreover, UNet is also provably sensitive to perturbed input, and predicts an output distant from the desired output, yielding oscillatory loss and thus oscillatory gradient. Besides, we also observe the theoretical benefits of the LSC coefficient scaling of UNet in the stableness of hidden features and gradient and also robustness. Finally, inspired by our theory, we propose an effective coefficient scaling framework ScaleLong that scales the coefficients of LSC in UNet and better improves the training stability of UNet. Experimental results on four famous datasets show that our methods are superior to stabilize training and yield about 1.5x training acceleration on different diffusion models with UNet or UViT backbones. Code: https://github.com/sail-sg/ScaleLong

A new golden age in astronomy is upon us, dominated by data. Large astronomical surveys are broadcasting unprecedented rates of information, demanding machine learning as a critical component in modern scientific pipelines to handle the deluge of data. The upcoming Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) of the Vera C. Rubin Observatory will raise the big-data bar for time-domain astronomy, with an expected 10 million alerts per-night, and generating many petabytes of data over the lifetime of the survey. Fast and efficient classification algorithms that can operate in real-time, yet robustly and accurately, are needed for time-critical events where additional resources can be sought for follow-up analyses. In order to handle such data, state-of-the-art deep learning architectures coupled with tools that leverage modern hardware accelerators are essential. We showcase how the use of modern deep compression methods can achieve a 18times reduction in model size, whilst preserving classification performance. We also show that in addition to the deep compression techniques, careful choice of file formats can improve inference latency, and thereby throughput of alerts, on the order of 8times for local processing, and 5times in a live production setting. To test this in a live setting, we deploy this optimised version of the original time-series transformer, t2, into the community alert broking system of FINK on real Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) alert data, and compare throughput performance with other science modules that exist in FINK. The results shown herein emphasise the time-series transformer's suitability for real-time classification at LSST scale, and beyond, and introduce deep model compression as a fundamental tool for improving deploy-ability and scalable inference of deep learning models for transient classification.

Training stability is a persistent challenge in the pre-training of large language models (LLMs), particularly for architectures such as Post-Norm Transformers, which are prone to gradient explosion and dissipation. In this paper, we propose Scale-Distribution Decoupling (SDD), a novel approach that stabilizes training by explicitly decoupling the scale and distribution of the weight matrix in fully-connected layers. SDD applies a normalization mechanism to regulate activations and a learnable scaling vector to maintain well-conditioned gradients, effectively preventing gradient explosion and dissipation. This separation improves optimization efficiency, particularly in deep networks, by ensuring stable gradient propagation. Experimental results demonstrate that our method stabilizes training across various LLM architectures and outperforms existing techniques in different normalization configurations. Furthermore, the proposed method is lightweight and compatible with existing frameworks, making it a practical solution for stabilizing LLM training. Code is available at https://github.com/kaihemo/SDD.

We prove stability for a class of heterogeneous catalysis models in the L_p-setting. We consider a setting in a finite three-dimensional pore of cylinder-like geometry, with the lateral walls acting as a catalytic surface. Under a reasonable condition on the involved parameters, we show that given equilibria are normally stable, i.e. solutions are attracted at an exponential rate. The potential incidence of instability is discussed as well.

Reasoning failures in large language models (LLMs) are typically measured only at the end of a generation, yet many failures manifest as a process-level breakdown: the model "loses the thread" mid-reasoning. We study whether such breakdowns are detectable from inference-time observables available in standard APIs (token log probabilities), without any training or fine-tuning. We define a simple instability signal that combines consecutive-step distributional shift (JSD) and uncertainty (entropy), summarize each trace by its peak instability strength, and show that this signal reliably predicts failure. Across GSM8K and HotpotQA, instability strength predicts wrong answers with above-chance AUC and yields monotonic bucket-level accuracy decline at scale across model sizes. Crucially, we show that instability is not uniformly harmful: early instability can reflect subsequent stabilization and a correct final answer (corrective instability), whereas late instability is more often followed by failure (destructive instability), even at comparable peak magnitudes, indicating that recoverability depends not only on how strongly the distribution changes but also on when such changes occur relative to the remaining decoding horizon. The method is model-agnostic, training-free, and reproducible, and is presented as a diagnostic lens rather than a corrective or control mechanism.

The Earth's atmosphere is an aerosol, it contains suspended particles. When air flows over an obstacle such as an aircraft wing or tree branch, these particles may not follow the same paths as the air flowing around the obstacle. Instead the particles in the air may deviate from the path of the air and so collide with the surface of the obstacle. It is known that particle inertia can drive this deposition, and that there is a critical value of this inertia, below which no point particles deposit. Particle inertia is measured by the Stokes number, St. We show that near the critical value of the Stokes number, St_c, the amount of deposition has the unusual scaling law of exp(-1/(St-St_c)^{1/2}). The scaling is controlled by the stagnation point of the flow. This scaling is determined by the time for the particle to reach the surface of the cylinder varying as 1/(St-St_c)^{1/2}, together with the distance away from the stagnation point (perpendicular to the flow direction) increasing exponentially with time. The scaling law applies to inviscid flow, a model for flow at high Reynolds numbers. The unusual scaling means that the amount of particles deposited increases only very slowly above the critical Stokes number. This has consequences for applications ranging from rime formation and fog harvesting to pollination.

Orthonormalized update rules have rapidly become a leading choice of optimizer for training large language models, with recent open-source state-of-the-art models adopting Muon. To keep these updates tractable, Muon performs the orthonormalization with the Newton--Schulz (NS) iteration. Since NS is only approximate, directions with small singular values fail to be orthonormalized. In Muon, NS is applied to the momentum matrix at every step, yet little is known about how the singular value spectrum of these momentum matrices behaves during training, or how that behavior changes with model size. We present the first systematic study of this question. Tracking singular value quantiles of the momentum buffer across layers in models ranging from 77M to 2.8B parameters, we observe a consistent picture: after a short burn-in, the quantiles stabilize at a value determined by the layer type and model size. These stabilization values follow remarkably clean power laws in model size, with layer-dependent exponents. Layers up to mid-late depth scale very mildly with model size M (around M^{-0.25}), so the standard 5-step NS configuration used at academic scale will continue to orthonormalize them at much larger scales. Some of the late layers, however, scale much more aggressively (up to M^{-0.96}) and will fall into the NS failure regime at frontier scale unless one uses more NS iterations or better-tuned coefficients. NS iterations are computationally expensive at scale; our laws give practitioners a principled, layer-aware recipe for choosing the minimum NS configuration that still orthonormalizes the directions that matter -- avoiding unnecessary computation without sacrificing update quality.

For deploying foundation models, practitioners increasingly need prescriptive scaling laws: given a pre training compute budget, what downstream accuracy is attainable with contemporary post training practice, and how stable is that mapping as the field evolves? Using large scale observational evaluations with 5k observational and 2k newly sampled data on model performance, we estimate capability boundaries, high conditional quantiles of benchmark scores as a function of log pre training FLOPs, via smoothed quantile regression with a monotone, saturating sigmoid parameterization. We validate the temporal reliability by fitting on earlier model generations and evaluating on later releases. Across various tasks, the estimated boundaries are mostly stable, with the exception of math reasoning that exhibits a consistently advancing boundary over time. We then extend our approach to analyze task dependent saturation and to probe contamination related shifts on math reasoning tasks. Finally, we introduce an efficient algorithm that recovers near full data frontiers using roughly 20% of evaluation budget. Together, our work releases the Proteus 2k, the latest model performance evaluation dataset, and introduces a practical methodology for translating compute budgets into reliable performance expectations and for monitoring when capability boundaries shift across time.

Genome engineering has achieved sequence-level precision, yet predicting the transcriptomic state a cell will occupy after perturbation remains open. Single-cell CRISPR screens measure how far cells move, but effect magnitude ignores whether the cells move together. We introduce Shesha perturbation stability (S_p), which quantifies directional coherence as the mean cosine similarity between individual cell shift vectors and the mean perturbation direction. Across five CRISPR datasets (2,200+ perturbations), stability correlates with magnitude (Spearman ρ= 0.75--0.97), but discordant cases expose regulatory architecture: pleiotropic regulators such as CEBPA pay a ``geometric tax,'' producing large but incoherent shifts, while lineage-specific factors such as KLF1 produce coordinated responses. S_p and Song et al.'s perturbation-response score (PS) share partial overlap (ρ_{partial} = +0.51 after controlling for magnitude), but S_p provides significant incremental prediction of UPR pathway activation beyond both PS and magnitude (p < 10^{-18}). In a split-half reproducibility assay, S_p predicts directional reproducibility beyond magnitude (ρ_{partial} = +0.384) while PS does not (ρ_{partial} = -0.193), with the advantage consistent across all magnitude strata and both datasets. Geometric instability is independently associated with UPR activation across four datasets. S_p is implemented in the open-source shesha-geometry Python package.

Scaling limits, such as infinite-width limits, serve as promising theoretical tools to study large-scale models. However, it is widely believed that existing infinite-width theory does not faithfully explain the behavior of practical networks, especially those trained in standard parameterization (SP) meaning He initialization with a global learning rate. For instance, existing theory for SP predicts instability at large learning rates and vanishing feature learning at stable ones. In practice, however, optimal learning rates decay slower than theoretically predicted and networks exhibit both stable training and non-trivial feature learning, even at very large widths. Here, we show that this discrepancy is not fully explained by finite-width phenomena. Instead, we find a resolution through a finer-grained analysis of the regime previously considered unstable and therefore uninteresting. In particular, we show that, under cross-entropy (CE) loss, the unstable regime comprises two distinct sub-regimes: a catastrophically unstable regime and a more benign controlled divergence regime, where logits diverge but gradients and activations remain stable. Moreover, under large learning rates at the edge of the controlled divergence regime, there exists a well-defined infinite width limit where features continue to evolve in all the hidden layers. In experiments across optimizers, architectures, and data modalities, we validate that neural networks operate in this controlled divergence regime under CE loss but not under MSE loss. Our empirical evidence suggests that width-scaling considerations are surprisingly useful for predicting empirically maximal stable learning rate exponents which provide useful guidance on optimal learning rate exponents. Finally, our analysis clarifies the effectiveness and limitations of recently proposed layerwise learning rate scaling for standard initialization.

Benchmarks measure whether a model is correct. They do not measure whether a model is reliable. This distinction is largely academic for single-shot inference, but becomes critical for agentic AI systems, where a single rephrased prompt can trigger cascading failures in multi-step execution. Yet this form of instability is not captured by existing evaluations. Hallucinations live in variance: they arise when semantically equivalent prompts activate inconsistent internal pathways, producing divergent outputs. Consistent but incorrect outputs reflect bias or missing knowledge; confident guessing reflects calibration failure. Neither constitutes hallucination under this definition. When error is variance-dominated, reducing redundant pathways improves reliability without adding knowledge. We formalize this through Semantic Stability (SS), measured via Paraphrase Consistency (PC@k): generate k paraphrases, greedy decode each, compute mode agreement. SS is a diagnostic for variance-driven unreliability, not a method for improving correctness. We show that a dense Qwen3-0.6B agrees with itself only 23.8% of the time; at 32% sparsity, agreement jumps to 55.9%. A phase diagram reveals the sweet spot where variance reduction outpaces bias accumulation, and regimes where stability collapses onto wrong answers.

Scale has become a main ingredient in obtaining strong machine learning models. As a result, understanding a model's scaling properties is key to effectively designing both the right training setup as well as future generations of architectures. In this work, we argue that scale and training research has been needlessly complex due to reliance on the cosine schedule, which prevents training across different lengths for the same model size. We investigate the training behavior of a direct alternative - constant learning rate and cooldowns - and find that it scales predictably and reliably similar to cosine. Additionally, we show that stochastic weight averaging yields improved performance along the training trajectory, without additional training costs, across different scales. Importantly, with these findings we demonstrate that scaling experiments can be performed with significantly reduced compute and GPU hours by utilizing fewer but reusable training runs.

Scaling large models requires optimization strategies that ensure rapid convergence grounded in stability. Maximal Update Parametrization (boldsymbolμP) provides a theoretical safeguard for width-invariant Θ(1) activation control, whereas emerging optimizers like Muon are only ``half-aligned'' with these constraints: they control updates but allow weights to drift. To address this limitation, we introduce the Spectral Sphere Optimizer (SSO), which enforces strict module-wise spectral constraints on both weights and their updates. By deriving the steepest descent direction on the spectral sphere, SSO realizes a fully boldsymbolμP-aligned optimization process. To enable large-scale training, we implement SSO as an efficient parallel algorithm within Megatron. Through extensive pretraining on diverse architectures, including Dense 1.7B, MoE 8B-A1B, and 200-layer DeepNet models, SSO consistently outperforms AdamW and Muon. Furthermore, we observe significant practical stability benefits, including improved MoE router load balancing, suppressed outliers, and strictly bounded activations.

We study the scaling properties of avalanche activity in the two-dimensional Abelian sandpile model. Instead of the conventional avalanche size distribution, we analyze the site activity distribution, which measures how often a site participates in avalanches when grains are added across the lattice. Using numerical simulations for system sizes up to \(L = 160\), averaged over \(10^4\) configurations, we determine the probability distribution \(P(A, L)\) of site activities. The results show that \(P(A, L)\) follows a finite-size scaling form \[ P(A, L) \sim L^{-2} F\Big(A{L^2}\Big). \] For small values \(A \ll L^2\) the scaling function behaves as \[ F(u) \sim u^{-1/2}, \quad corresponding to \quad P(A) \sim 1{L}, \] while for large activities \(A \sim O(L^2)\) the distribution decays as \[ F(u) \sim \exp\big(-c_3 u - c_4 u^2\big). \] The crossover between these two regimes occurs at \[ A^* \sim 0.1 \, L^2, \] marking the threshold between typical and highly excitable sites. This characterization of local avalanche activity provides complementary information to the usual avalanche size statistics, highlighting how local regions serve as frequent conduits for critical dynamics. These results may help connect sandpile models to real-world self-organized critical systems where only partial local activity can be observed.

Multi-agent large language model (LLM) systems often rely on verifier and critic agents to suppress hallucinations, but verification is delayed. During this delay, false claims can propagate through the agent network. We model this process as delayed consensus on a graph with grounded corrector nodes. Spectral decomposition by the grounded Laplacian yields a closed-form stability threshold for the verification dose: correction that is too strong or too delayed can turn consensus into oscillation. The most unstable regime occurs when the communication and verification delays coincide; for delay two, the threshold is the inverse golden ratio. The same framework gives a supermodular placement objective and a greedy (1-1/e)-approximation rule for assigning a limited corrector budget to influential nodes. Experiments across five open models confirm the predicted dose-delay oscillations. By contrast, grounded factual answering makes truth an absorbing boundary and eliminates the effect, suggesting that the instability is specific to signed-belief tasks while grounded verification remains stabilizing

Reliable deployment of language models requires two capabilities that appear distinct but share a common geometric foundation: predicting whether a model will accept targeted behavioral control, and detecting when its internal structure degrades. We show that geometric stability, the consistency of a representation's pairwise distance structure, addresses both. Supervised Shesha variants that measure task-aligned geometric stability predict linear steerability with near-perfect accuracy (ρ= 0.89-0.97) across 35-69 embedding models and three NLP tasks, capturing unique variance beyond class separability (partial ρ= 0.62-0.76). A critical dissociation emerges: unsupervised stability fails entirely for steering on real-world tasks (ρapprox 0.10), revealing that task alignment is essential for controllability prediction. However, unsupervised stability excels at drift detection, measuring nearly 2times greater geometric change than CKA during post-training alignment (up to 5.23times in Llama) while providing earlier warning in 73\% of models and maintaining a 6times lower false alarm rate than Procrustes. Together, supervised and unsupervised stability form complementary diagnostics for the LLM deployment lifecycle: one for pre-deployment controllability assessment, the other for post-deployment monitoring.

We present an online post-hoc calibration method, called Online Platt Scaling (OPS), which combines the Platt scaling technique with online logistic regression. We demonstrate that OPS smoothly adapts between i.i.d. and non-i.i.d. settings with distribution drift. Further, in scenarios where the best Platt scaling model is itself miscalibrated, we enhance OPS by incorporating a recently developed technique called calibeating to make it more robust. Theoretically, our resulting OPS+calibeating method is guaranteed to be calibrated for adversarial outcome sequences. Empirically, it is effective on a range of synthetic and real-world datasets, with and without distribution drifts, achieving superior performance without hyperparameter tuning. Finally, we extend all OPS ideas to the beta scaling method.

Scaling laws for large language models depend critically on the optimizer and parameterization. Existing hyperparameter transfer laws are mainly developed for first-order optimizers, and they do not structurally prevent training instability at scale. Recent hypersphere optimization methods constrain weight matrices to a fixed-norm hypersphere, offering a promising alternative for more stable scaling. We introduce HyperP (Hypersphere Parameterization), the first framework for transferring optimal learning rates across model width, depth, training tokens, and Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) granularity under the Frobenius-sphere constraint with the Muon optimizer. We prove that weight decay is a first-order no-op on the Frobenius sphere, show that Depth-μP remains necessary, and find that the optimal learning rate follows the same data-scaling power law with the "magic exponent" 0.32 previously observed for AdamW. A single base learning rate tuned at the smallest scale transfers across all compute budgets under HyperP, yielding 1.58times compute efficiency over a strong Muon baseline at 6times10^{21} FLOPs. Moreover, HyperP delivers transferable stability: all monitored instability indicators, including Z-values, output RMS, and activation outliers, remain bounded and non-increasing under training FLOPs scaling. We also propose SqrtGate, an MoE gating mechanism derived from the hypersphere constraint that preserves output RMS across MoE granularities for improved granularity scaling, and show that hypersphere optimization enables substantially larger auxiliary load-balancing weights, yielding both strong performance and good expert balance. We release our training codebase at https://github.com/microsoft/ArchScale.

Parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT) is usually treated as a cheaper alternative to full fine-tuning. We study a broader role: small trainable adapters as persistent local state on top of strong shared foundation models. In this framing, the base model provides shared competence while adapters carry instance-specific behavior such as preferences, skills, tool habits, and memory-like updates. We organize the problem around three scaling axes: Scale Up, where stronger shared priors make small local updates more useful; Scale Down, where we study how small adapters can be while remaining reliable; and Scale Out, where many persistent adapted instances coexist. MinT provides one infrastructure example for managing adapter identity, revision, provenance, evaluation, and serving residency. Together, the results suggest that PEFT can be a compact substrate for persistent personal models rather than only a budget substitute for full fine-tuning.

Natural selection for terrestrial locomotion has yielded unifying patterns in the body shape of legged animals, often manifesting as scaling laws. One such pattern appears in the frontal aspect ratio. Smaller animals like insects typically adopt a landscape frontal aspect ratio, with a wider side-to-side base of support than center of mass height. Larger animals like elephants, however, are taller than wide with a portrait aspect ratio. Known explanations for postural scaling are restricted to animal groups with similar anatomical and behavioural motifs, but the trend in frontal aspect ratio transcends such commonalities. Here we show that vertebrates and invertebrates with diverse body plans, ranging in mass from 28 mg to 22000 kg, exhibit size-dependent scaling of the frontal aspect ratio driven by the need for lateral stability on uneven natural terrain. Because natural terrain exhibit scale-dependent unevenness, and the frontal aspect ratio is important for lateral stability during locomotion, smaller animals need a wider aspect ratio for stability. This prediction is based on the fractal property of natural terrain unevenness, requires no anatomical or behavioural parameters, and agrees with the measured scaling despite vast anatomical and behavioural differences. Furthermore, a statistical phylogenetic comparative analysis found that shared ancestry and random trait evolution cannot explain the measured scaling. Thus, our findings reveal that terrain roughness, acting through natural selection for stability, likely drove the macroevolution of frontal shape in terrestrial animals.

We study the problem of visualizing large-scale and high-dimensional data in a low-dimensional (typically 2D or 3D) space. Much success has been reported recently by techniques that first compute a similarity structure of the data points and then project them into a low-dimensional space with the structure preserved. These two steps suffer from considerable computational costs, preventing the state-of-the-art methods such as the t-SNE from scaling to large-scale and high-dimensional data (e.g., millions of data points and hundreds of dimensions). We propose the LargeVis, a technique that first constructs an accurately approximated K-nearest neighbor graph from the data and then layouts the graph in the low-dimensional space. Comparing to t-SNE, LargeVis significantly reduces the computational cost of the graph construction step and employs a principled probabilistic model for the visualization step, the objective of which can be effectively optimized through asynchronous stochastic gradient descent with a linear time complexity. The whole procedure thus easily scales to millions of high-dimensional data points. Experimental results on real-world data sets demonstrate that the LargeVis outperforms the state-of-the-art methods in both efficiency and effectiveness. The hyper-parameters of LargeVis are also much more stable over different data sets.

FP8 formats are gaining popularity to boost the computational efficiency for training and inference of large deep learning models. Their main challenge is that a careful choice of scaling is needed to prevent degradation due to the reduced dynamic range compared to higher-precision formats. Although there exists ample literature about selecting such scalings for INT formats, this critical aspect has yet to be addressed for FP8. This paper presents a methodology to select the scalings for FP8 linear layers, based on dynamically updating per-tensor scales for the weights, gradients and activations. We apply this methodology to train and validate large language models of the type of GPT and Llama 2 using FP8, for model sizes ranging from 111M to 70B. To facilitate the understanding of the FP8 dynamics, our results are accompanied by plots of the per-tensor scale distribution for weights, activations and gradients during both training and inference.

Reinforcement learning is structurally harder than supervised learning because the policy changes the data distribution it learns from. The resulting fragility is especially visible in large-model training, where the training and rollout systems differ in numerical precision, sampling, and other implementation details. Existing methods manage this fragility by adding hyper-parameters to the training objective, which makes the algorithm more sensitive to its configuration and requires retuning whenever the task, model scale, or distribution mismatch changes. This fragility traces to two concerns that current objectives entangle through hyper-parameters set before training begins: a trust-region concern, that updates should not move the policy too far from its current value, and an off-policy concern, that data from older or different behavior policies should influence the update only to the extent that it remains reliable. Neither concern is a constant to set in advance, and their severity is reflected in the policy-ratio distribution of the current batch. We present a simple yet effective batch-adaptive objective that replaces fixed clipping with the normalized effective sample size of the policy ratios. The same statistic caps the score-function weight and sets the strength of an off-policy regularizer, so the update stays close to the usual on-policy score-function update when ratios are nearly uniform, and tightens automatically when stale or mismatched data cause ratio concentration, while retaining a nonzero learning signal on high-ratio tokens. Experiments across a wide range of settings show that our method matches or exceeds tuned baselines, introducing no new objective hyper-parameters and removing several existing ones. The code is available at https://github.com/FeynRL-project/FeynRL.

The increasing computational demands of foundation models have spurred research into low-precision training, with 4-bit floating-point (FP4) formats emerging as a frontier for maximizing hardware throughput. While numerous techniques have been proposed to stabilize FP4 training, they often present isolated solutions with varying, and not always clear, computational overheads. This paper aims to provide a unified view of the design space of FP4 training. We introduce a comprehensive, quantisation gradient-based framework for microscaling quantization that allows for a theoretical analysis of the computational costs associated with different stabilization methods on both the forward and backward passes. Using a simulator built on this framework, we conduct an extensive empirical study across a wide range of machine learning tasks, including regression, image classification, diffusion models, and language models. By systematically evaluating thousands of combinations of techniques, such as novel gradient approximations, rounding strategies, and scaling methods, we identify which configurations offer the most favourable performance-to-overhead trade-off. We find that the techniques enabling the best trade-off involve carefully combining Hadamard transformations, tensor scaling and stochastic rounding. We further find that using UE5M3 as a scaling factor potentially offers a good compromise between range and precision with manageable computational overhead.

Training compute is increasingly outpacing the availability of high-quality data. This shifts the central challenge from optimal compute allocation to extracting maximum value from limited data. The widely adopted Chinchilla scaling law assumes every training token is unique. This limits its ability to guide pretraining decisions in data-constrained regimes. We model the excess loss under repetition with a simple additive overfitting penalty and find that it accurately describes model behavior. Our scaling law yields qualitatively new compute-optimal allocation advice. Beyond a point, further repetition is counterproductive and compute is better spent on model capacity. We show that following our law's recommended configuration improves performance in data-constrained regimes. Finally, because our one-parameter form isolates overfitting in a single coefficient, it enables direct comparison across training configurations. As a case study, we show that strong weight decay (λ=1.0) reduces this coefficient by approximately 70%, providing a scaling-law explanation for recent findings that optimal weight decay in data-constrained regimes is an order of magnitude larger than standard practice.

Traditional fixed-depth architectures scale quality by increasing training FLOPs, typically through increased parameterization, at the expense of a higher memory footprint, or data. A potential alternative is looped architectures, which instead increase FLOPs by sending activations through a block of layers in a loop. While promising, existing recipes for training looped architectures can be unstable, suffering from residual explosion and loss spikes. We address these challenges by recasting looping as a nonlinear time-variant dynamical system over the residual stream. Via a linear approximation to this system, we find that instability occurs in existing looped architectures as a result of large spectral norms in their injection parameters. To address these instability issues, we propose Parcae, a novel stable, looped architecture that constrains the spectral norm of the injection parameters via discretization of a negative diagonal parameterization. As a result, Parcae achieves up to 6.3% lower validation perplexity over prior large-scale looped models. Using our stable looped architecture, we investigate the scaling properties of looping as a medium to improve quality by increasing FLOPs in training and test-time. For training, we derive predictable power laws to scale FLOPs while keeping parameter count fixed. Our initial scaling laws suggest that looping and data should be increased in tandem, given a fixed FLOP budget. At test-time, we find that Parcae can use looping to scale compute, following a predictable, saturating exponential decay. When scaled up to 1.3B parameters, we find that Parcae improves CORE and Core-Extended quality by 2.99 and 1.18 points when compared to strong Transformer baselines under a fixed parameter and data budget, achieving a relative quality of up to 87.5% a Transformer twice the size.

Existing benchmarks measure capability -- whether a model succeeds on a single attempt -- but production deployments require reliability -- consistent success across repeated attempts on tasks of varying duration. We show these properties diverge systematically as task duration grows, and that pass@1 on short tasks is structurally blind to this divergence. We introduce a reliability science framework for long-horizon LLM agents with four metrics: Reliability Decay Curve (RDC), Variance Amplification Factor (VAF), Graceful Degradation Score (GDS), and Meltdown Onset Point (MOP). We evaluate 10 models across 23,392 episodes on a 396-task benchmark spanning four duration buckets and three domains. Key findings: (1) reliability decay is domain-stratified -- SE GDS drops from 0.90 to 0.44 while document processing is nearly flat (0.74 to 0.71); (2) VAF bifurcates by capability tier -- high VAF is a capability signature, not an instability signal; (3) capability and reliability rankings diverge substantially, with multi-rank inversions at long horizons; (4) frontier models have the highest meltdown rates (up to 19%) because they attempt ambitious multi-step strategies that sometimes spiral; and (5) memory scaffolds universally hurt long-horizon performance across all 10 models. These results motivate reliability as a first-class evaluation dimension alongside capability.

Recent work has identified simple empirical scaling laws for language models, linking compute budget, dataset size, model size, and autoregressive modeling loss. The validity of these simple power laws across orders of magnitude in model scale provides compelling evidence that larger models are also more capable models. However, scaling up models under the constraints of hardware and infrastructure is no easy feat, and rapidly becomes a hard and expensive engineering problem. We investigate ways to tentatively cheat scaling laws, and train larger models for cheaper. We emulate an increase in effective parameters, using efficient approximations: either by doping the models with frozen random parameters, or by using fast structured transforms in place of dense linear layers. We find that the scaling relationship between test loss and compute depends only on the actual number of trainable parameters; scaling laws cannot be deceived by spurious parameters.

Offline-to-online reinforcement learning (RL) has emerged as a practical paradigm that leverages offline datasets for pretraining and online interactions for fine-tuning. However, its empirical behavior is highly inconsistent: design choices of online-fine tuning that work well in one setting can fail completely in another. We propose a stability--plasticity principle that can explain this inconsistency: we should preserve the knowledge of pretrained policy or offline dataset during online fine-tuning, whichever is better, while maintaining sufficient plasticity. This perspective identifies three regimes of online fine-tuning, each requiring distinct stability properties. We validate this framework through a large-scale empirical study, finding that the results strongly align with its predictions in 45 of 63 cases. This work provides a principled framework for guiding design choices in offline-to-online RL based on the relative performance of the offline dataset and the pretrained policy.

Sparse autoencoders (SAEs) are widely used to interpret neural network representations, but their utility depends on whether the learned features are reproducible across training runs. We study this question through feature stability: for each SAE feature, we estimate the probability that a similar feature reappears in an independently trained SAE. This yields a scalable per-feature signal that separates stable from unstable features. In a large-scale study across seeds, models, layers, dictionary sizes, and SAE variants, we find a pronounced functional asymmetry: stable features carry most of the reconstruction- and prediction-relevant signal, while unstable features have weak marginal impact and are dominated by low-frequency surface-form triggers in both activation statistics and automatic explanations. Geometrically, unstable features are individually non-reproducible but concentrate in reproducible lower-rank subspaces, suggesting that seed dependence often reflects basis ambiguity within a shared region of activation space rather than pure noise. A controlled synthetic model makes this mechanism explicit, showing that low-rank ground-truth features can be recovered at the subspace level while remaining non-identifiable as individual SAE latents across seeds. Finally, by pooling unique cross-seed features, we construct more stable SAEs while preserving explained variance in this setting. Together, these results show that unstable features are not merely failed or noisy latents: they have weak individual functional impact, but reflect reproducible low-dimensional structure that standard SAEs resolve differently across seeds.

As we scale to more massive machine learning models, the frequent synchronization demands inherent in data-parallel approaches create significant slowdowns, posing a critical challenge to further scaling. Recent work develops an approach (DiLoCo) that relaxes synchronization demands without compromising model quality. However, these works do not carefully analyze how DiLoCo's behavior changes with model size. In this work, we study the scaling law behavior of DiLoCo when training LLMs under a fixed compute budget. We focus on how algorithmic factors, including number of model replicas, hyperparameters, and token budget affect training in ways that can be accurately predicted via scaling laws. We find that DiLoCo scales both predictably and robustly with model size. When well-tuned, DiLoCo scales better than data-parallel training with model size, and can outperform data-parallel training even at small model sizes. Our results showcase a more general set of benefits of DiLoCo than previously documented, including increased optimal batch sizes, improved downstream generalization with scale, and improved evaluation loss for a fixed token budget.

Best-of-N inference scaling (drawing N candidate answers from a language model and returning the one a reward model ranks highest) improves accuracy by an amount that varies across models, but predicting that amount in advance currently requires running the procedure end-to-end. Prior work links cheap statistics of a model's sampled outputs and validation-set correctness (how often samples agree, how diverse they are, how confident the model is, and where correct samples appear) to model behavior, but does not isolate which of these form a stable, compact predictor of best-of-N gain. We fit ridge predictors on features computed from a single labeled validation-set sampling pass, use bootstrap-Lasso as a stability analysis of the candidate feature set, and give a concentration analysis with an explicit linear-approximation residual. Across three base-model families, six post-training methods, and math and reasoning task domains, the stability analysis identifies a strict three-feature core spanning prompt-level agreement spread, label-assisted first-correct-sample position, and completion-length variance; a compact ridge predictor built from this core plus an entropy add-on reaches Spearman ρ= 0.90 with actual best-of-N gain under a reward-model verifier. The intended use is labeled validation-set screening of candidate configurations before paying the full reward-model scoring cost.

Looped Language Models (LoopLMs) enable efficient latent reasoning through depth recurrence, yet exhibit unreliable test-time scaling behavior: performance often peaks at a certain iteration depth and then collapses with further recurrence. Through latent dynamics analysis, we find an inherent trade-off between stability and effectiveness in existing architectures and strategies. By conceptualizing reasoning as uncertainty reduction, we propose that convergence toward stable fixed points while preserving effectiveness represents a promising way. To this end, we propose STARS (STAbility-driven Recurrent Scaling), a training framework that constrains latent states to approach asymptotically stable fixed points. This is realized via efficient Jacobian Spectral Radius Regularization with random loop sampling, enabling STARS to maximize effectiveness while ensuring rigorous stability. Experiments on arithmetic tasks show that STARS achieves reliable test-time scaling, and on complex mathematical reasoning it substantially mitigates performance degradation as recurrence depth increases while also improving peak performance.

Deep ResNet architectures have achieved state of the art performance on many tasks. While they solve the problem of gradient vanishing, they might suffer from gradient exploding as the depth becomes large (Yang et al. 2017). Moreover, recent results have shown that ResNet might lose expressivity as the depth goes to infinity (Yang et al. 2017, Hayou et al. 2019). To resolve these issues, we introduce a new class of ResNet architectures, called Stable ResNet, that have the property of stabilizing the gradient while ensuring expressivity in the infinite depth limit.

Modern foundation models rely heavily on using scaling laws to guide crucial training decisions. Researchers often extrapolate the optimal architecture and hyper parameters settings from smaller training runs by describing the relationship between, loss, or task performance, and scale. All components of this process vary, from the specific equation being fit, to the training setup, to the optimization method. Each of these factors may affect the fitted law, and therefore, the conclusions of a given study. We discuss discrepancies in the conclusions that several prior works reach, on questions such as the optimal token to parameter ratio. We augment this discussion with our own analysis of the critical impact that changes in specific details may effect in a scaling study, and the resulting altered conclusions. Additionally, we survey over 50 papers that study scaling trends: while 45 of these papers quantify these trends using a power law, most under-report crucial details needed to reproduce their findings. To mitigate this, we we propose a checklist for authors to consider while contributing to scaling law research.

Conducting reinforcement learning (RL) in simulated environments offers a cost-effective and highly scalable way to enhance language-based agents. However, previous work has been limited to semi-automated environment synthesis or tasks lacking sufficient difficulty, offering little breadth or depth. In addition, the instability of simulated users integrated into these environments, along with the heterogeneity across simulated environments, poses further challenges for agentic RL. In this work, we propose: (1) a unified pipeline for automated and scalable synthesis of simulated environments associated with high-difficulty but easily verifiable tasks; and (2) an environment level RL algorithm that not only effectively mitigates user instability but also performs advantage estimation at the environment level, thereby improving training efficiency and stability. Comprehensive evaluations on agentic benchmarks, including tau-bench, tau2-Bench, and VitaBench, validate the effectiveness of our proposed method. Further in-depth analyses underscore its out-of-domain generalization.

We present an open-source Python library for simulating two-dimensional incompressible Kelvin-Helmholtz instabilities in stratified shear flows. The solver employs a fractional-step projection method with spectral Poisson solution via Fast Sine Transform, achieving second-order spatial accuracy. Implementation leverages NumPy, SciPy, and Numba JIT compilation for efficient computation. Four canonical test cases explore Reynolds numbers 1000--5000 and Richardson numbers 0.1--0.3: classical shear layer, double shear configuration, rotating flow, and forced turbulence. Statistical analysis using Shannon entropy and complexity indices reveals that double shear layers achieve 2.8times higher mixing rates than forced turbulence despite lower Reynolds numbers. The solver runs efficiently on standard desktop hardware, with 384times192 grid simulations completing in approximately 31 minutes. Results demonstrate that mixing efficiency depends on instability generation pathways rather than intensity measures alone, challenging Richardson number-based parameterizations and suggesting refinements for subgrid-scale representation in climate models.

Scaling up the model size and computation has brought consistent performance improvements in supervised learning. However, this lesson often fails to apply to reinforcement learning (RL) because training the model on non-stationary data easily leads to overfitting and unstable optimization. In response, we introduce SimbaV2, a novel RL architecture designed to stabilize optimization by (i) constraining the growth of weight and feature norm by hyperspherical normalization; and (ii) using a distributional value estimation with reward scaling to maintain stable gradients under varying reward magnitudes. Using the soft actor-critic as a base algorithm, SimbaV2 scales up effectively with larger models and greater compute, achieving state-of-the-art performance on 57 continuous control tasks across 4 domains. The code is available at https://dojeon-ai.github.io/SimbaV2.

Predictable behavior from scaling advanced AI systems is an extremely desirable property. Although a well-established literature exists on how pretraining performance scales, the literature on how particular downstream capabilities scale is significantly muddier. In this work, we take a step back and ask: why has predicting specific downstream capabilities with scale remained elusive? While many factors are certainly responsible, we identify a new factor that makes modeling scaling behavior on widely used multiple-choice question-answering benchmarks challenging. Using five model families and twelve well-established multiple-choice benchmarks, we show that downstream performance is computed from negative log likelihoods via a sequence of transformations that progressively degrade the statistical relationship between performance and scale. We then reveal the mechanism causing this degradation: downstream metrics require comparing the correct choice against a small number of specific incorrect choices, meaning accurately predicting downstream capabilities requires predicting not just how probability mass concentrates on the correct choice with scale, but also how probability mass fluctuates on specific incorrect choices with scale. We empirically study how probability mass on the correct choice co-varies with probability mass on incorrect choices with increasing compute, suggesting that scaling laws for incorrect choices might be achievable. Our work also explains why pretraining scaling laws are commonly regarded as more predictable than downstream capabilities and contributes towards establishing scaling-predictable evaluations of frontier AI models.

Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) stands as a cornerstone optimization algorithm with proven real-world empirical successes but relatively limited theoretical understanding. Recent research has illuminated a key factor contributing to its practical efficacy: the implicit regularization it instigates. Several studies have investigated the linear stability property of SGD in the vicinity of a stationary point as a predictive proxy for sharpness and generalization error in overparameterized neural networks (Wu et al., 2022; Jastrzebski et al., 2019; Cohen et al., 2021). In this paper, we delve deeper into the relationship between linear stability and sharpness. More specifically, we meticulously delineate the necessary and sufficient conditions for linear stability, contingent on hyperparameters of SGD and the sharpness at the optimum. Towards this end, we introduce a novel coherence measure of the loss Hessian that encapsulates pertinent geometric properties of the loss function that are relevant to the linear stability of SGD. It enables us to provide a simplified sufficient condition for identifying linear instability at an optimum. Notably, compared to previous works, our analysis relies on significantly milder assumptions and is applicable for a broader class of loss functions than known before, encompassing not only mean-squared error but also cross-entropy loss.

In studies of transferable learning, scaling laws are obtained for various important foundation models to predict their properties and performance at larger scales. We show here how scaling law derivation can also be used for model and dataset comparison, allowing to decide which procedure is to be preferred for pre-training. For the first time, full scaling laws based on dense measurements across a wide span of model and samples seen scales are derived for two important language-vision learning procedures, CLIP and MaMMUT, that use either contrastive only or contrastive and captioning text generative loss. Ensuring sufficient prediction accuracy for held out points, we use derived scaling laws to compare both models, obtaining evidence for MaMMUT's stronger improvement with scale and better sample efficiency than standard CLIP. To strengthen validity of the comparison, we show scaling laws for various downstream tasks, classification, retrieval, and segmentation, and for different open datasets, DataComp, DFN and Re-LAION, observing consistently the same trends. We show that comparison can also be performed when deriving scaling laws with a constant learning rate schedule, reducing compute cost. Accurate derivation of scaling laws provides thus means to perform model and dataset comparison across scale spans, avoiding misleading conclusions based on measurements from single reference scales only, paving the road for systematic comparison and improvement of open foundation models and datasets for their creation. We release all the pre-trained models with their intermediate checkpoints, including openMaMMUT-L/14, which achieves 80.3% zero-shot ImageNet-1k accuracy, trained on 12.8B samples from DataComp-1.4B. Code for reproducing experiments in the paper and raw experiments data can be found at https://github.com/LAION-AI/scaling-laws-for-comparison.

In many real-world applications, deep neural networks are retrained from scratch as a dataset grows in size. Given the computational expense for retraining networks, it has been argued that continual learning could make updating networks more efficient. An obstacle to achieving this goal is the stability gap, which refers to an observation that when updating on new data, performance on previously learned data degrades before recovering. Addressing this problem would enable learning new data with fewer network updates, resulting in increased computational efficiency. We study how to mitigate the stability gap. We test a variety of hypotheses to understand why the stability gap occurs. This leads us to discover a method that vastly reduces this gap. In large-scale class incremental learning experiments, we are able to significantly reduce the number of network updates needed for continual learning. Our work has the potential to advance the state-of-the-art in continual learning for real-world applications along with reducing the carbon footprint required to maintain updated neural networks.

Muon orthogonalizes the momentum buffer before each update, replacing its singular values with ones via Newton-Schulz iterations. This simple change lets Muon tolerate far larger learning rates and converge faster than other optimizers, but why? We show that the mechanism is spectral flattening, and develop two results around it. First, we prove that Muon's maximal stable step size scales with the average singular value of the gradient rather than the largest, which bottlenecks standard gradient descent. Second, we recast Muon as a preconditioned gradient method and show, under a Kronecker-factored curvature model, that it improves the effective convergence factor, with the improvement controlled by the spectrum of the gradient covariance. Extensive experiments validate both results: Muon remains stable at learning rates that cause SGD to diverge within the first few iterations, and reaches accuracy milestones several epochs earlier even at identical step sizes. Taken together, our results offer a principled, geometric explanation for Muon's empirical success.

Agentic reinforcement learning (ARL) has rapidly gained attention as a promising paradigm for training agents to solve complex, multi-step interactive tasks. Despite encouraging early results, ARL remains highly unstable, often leading to training collapse. This instability limits scalability to larger environments and longer interaction horizons, and constrains systematic exploration of algorithmic design choices. In this paper, we first propose ARLArena, a stable training recipe and systematic analysis framework that examines training stability in a controlled and reproducible setting. ARLArena first constructs a clean and standardized testbed. Then, we decompose policy gradient into four core design dimensions and assess the performance and stability of each dimension. Through this fine-grained analysis, we distill a unified perspective on ARL and propose SAMPO, a stable agentic policy optimization method designed to mitigate the dominant sources of instability in ARL. Empirically, SAMPO achieves consistently stable training and strong performance across diverse agentic tasks. Overall, this study provides a unifying policy gradient perspective for ARL and offers practical guidance for building stable and reproducible LLM-based agent training pipelines.

In this paper, we study the implicit regularization of stochastic gradient descent (SGD) through the lens of {\em dynamical stability} (Wu et al., 2018). We start by revising existing stability analyses of SGD, showing how the Frobenius norm and trace of Hessian relate to different notions of stability. Notably, if a global minimum is linearly stable for SGD, then the trace of Hessian must be less than or equal to 2/eta, where eta denotes the learning rate. By contrast, for gradient descent (GD), the stability imposes a similar constraint but only on the largest eigenvalue of Hessian. We then turn to analyze the generalization properties of these stable minima, focusing specifically on two-layer ReLU networks and diagonal linear networks. Notably, we establish the {\em equivalence} between these metrics of sharpness and certain parameter norms for the two models, which allows us to show that the stable minima of SGD provably generalize well. By contrast, the stability-induced regularization of GD is provably too weak to ensure satisfactory generalization. This discrepancy provides an explanation of why SGD often generalizes better than GD. Note that the learning rate (LR) plays a pivotal role in the strength of stability-induced regularization. As the LR increases, the regularization effect becomes more pronounced, elucidating why SGD with a larger LR consistently demonstrates superior generalization capabilities. Additionally, numerical experiments are provided to support our theoretical findings.

We introduce rd-spiral, an open-source Python library for simulating 2D reaction-diffusion systems using pseudo-spectral methods. The framework combines FFT-based spatial discretization with adaptive Dormand-Prince time integration, achieving exponential convergence while maintaining pedagogical clarity. We analyze three dynamical regimes: stable spirals, spatiotemporal chaos, and pattern decay, revealing extreme non-Gaussian statistics (kurtosis >96) in stable states. Information-theoretic metrics show 10.7% reduction in activator-inhibitor coupling during turbulence versus 6.5% in stable regimes. The solver handles stiffness ratios >6:1 with features including automated equilibrium classification and checkpointing. Effect sizes (delta=0.37--0.78) distinguish regimes, with asymmetric field sensitivities to perturbations. By balancing computational rigor with educational transparency, rd-spiral bridges theoretical and practical nonlinear dynamics.

Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) is a widely adopted parameter-efficient method for fine-tuning Large Langauge Models. It updates the weight matrix as W=W_0+sBA, where W_0 is the original frozen weight, s is a scaling factor and A,B are trainable low-rank matrices. Despite its robust empirical effectiveness, the theoretical foundations of LoRA remain insufficiently understood, particularly with respect to feature learning stability. In this paper, we first establish that, LoRA can, in principle, naturally achieve and sustain stable feature learning (i.e., be self-stabilized) under appropriate hyper-parameters and initializations of A and B. However, we also uncover a fundamental limitation that the necessary non-zero initialization of A compromises self-stability, leading to suboptimal performances. To address this challenge, we propose Stable-LoRA, a weight-shrinkage optimization strategy that dynamically enhances stability of LoRA feature learning. By progressively shrinking A during the earliest training steps, Stable-LoRA is both theoretically and empirically validated to effectively eliminate instability of LoRA feature learning while preserving the benefits of the non-zero start. Experiments show that Stable-LoRA consistently outperforms other baselines across diverse models and tasks, with no additional memory usage and only negligible computation overheads. The code is available at https://github.com/Yize-Wu/Stable-LoRA.

Recent studies of gradient descent with large step sizes have shown that there is often a regime with an initial increase in the largest eigenvalue of the loss Hessian (progressive sharpening), followed by a stabilization of the eigenvalue near the maximum value which allows convergence (edge of stability). These phenomena are intrinsically non-linear and do not happen for models in the constant Neural Tangent Kernel (NTK) regime, for which the predictive function is approximately linear in the parameters. As such, we consider the next simplest class of predictive models, namely those that are quadratic in the parameters, which we call second-order regression models. For quadratic objectives in two dimensions, we prove that this second-order regression model exhibits progressive sharpening of the NTK eigenvalue towards a value that differs slightly from the edge of stability, which we explicitly compute. In higher dimensions, the model generically shows similar behavior, even without the specific structure of a neural network, suggesting that progressive sharpening and edge-of-stability behavior aren't unique features of neural networks, and could be a more general property of discrete learning algorithms in high-dimensional non-linear models.

Bagging is an important technique for stabilizing machine learning models. In this paper, we derive a finite-sample guarantee on the stability of bagging for any model. Our result places no assumptions on the distribution of the data, on the properties of the base algorithm, or on the dimensionality of the covariates. Our guarantee applies to many variants of bagging and is optimal up to a constant. Empirical results validate our findings, showing that bagging successfully stabilizes even highly unstable base algorithms.

We identify first-mover bias -- path-dependent concentration of SHAP feature importance from sequential residual fitting in gradient boosting -- as a mechanistic contributor to attribution instability under multicollinearity. Scaling up a single model amplifies this effect: a Large Single Model matching our method's total tree count produces the poorest attribution reproducibility of any approach tested. We show that model independence largely neutralizes first-mover bias. Both DASH (Diversified Aggregation of SHAP) and simple seed-averaging (Stochastic Retrain) restore stability by breaking the sequential dependency chain. At rho=0.9, both achieve stability ~0.977, while Single Best degrades to 0.958 and LSM to 0.938. On Breast Cancer, DASH improves stability from 0.376 to 0.925 (+0.549), outperforming Stochastic Retrain by +0.063. Under nonlinear DGPs, the advantage emerges at rho>=0.7. DASH provides two diagnostic tools -- the Feature Stability Index and Importance-Stability Plot -- that detect first-mover bias without ground truth. A crossed ANOVA with formal F-statistics confirms the mechanism: DASH shifts variance from model-dominated (40.6%) to data-dominated (73.6%). Software at https://github.com/DrakeCaraker/dash-shap

Nowadays, software systems tend to include Artificial Intelligence (AI) components. Changes in the operational environment have been known to negatively impact the stability of AI-enabled software systems by causing unintended changes in behavior. However, how an environment configuration impacts the behavior of such systems has yet to be explored. Understanding and quantifying the degree of instability caused by different environment settings can help practitioners decide the best environment configuration for the most stable AI systems. To achieve this goal, we performed experiments with eight different combinations of three key environment variables (operating system, Python version, and CPU architecture) on 30 open-source AI-enabled systems using the Travis CI platform. We determine the existence and the degree of instability introduced by each configuration using three metrics: the output of an AI component of the system (model performance), the time required to build and run the system (processing time), and the cost associated with building and running the system (expense). Our results indicate that changes in environment configurations lead to instability across all three metrics; however, it is observed more frequently with respect to processing time and expense rather than model performance. For example, between Linux and MacOS, instability is observed in 23\%, 96.67\%, and 100\% of the studied projects in model performance, processing time, and expense, respectively. Our findings underscore the importance of identifying the optimal combination of configuration settings to mitigate drops in model performance and reduce the processing time and expense before deploying an AI-enabled system.

We address the challenge of adapting pre-trained Large Language Models (LLMs) for multivariate time-series analysis, where their deployment is often hindered by prohibitive computational and memory demands. Our solution, One-for-All, introduces Gaussian Rank-Stabilized Low-Rank Adapters (rsLoRA) to enable parameter-efficient fine-tuning of frozen LLMs. While inspired by LoRA, rsLoRA introduces a mathematically grounded rank-stabilization mechanism that enables provable gradient stability at low ranks a novel contribution absent in prior PEFT methods. Our framework injects trainable rank decomposition matrices (rank 16) into positional embeddings and output layers, while keeping self-attention weights fixed. This design reduces trainable parameters by 6.8times (vs. TimesNet), 21times (vs. GPT4TS), and 11.8times (vs. TIME-LLM), while achieving a 168-1,776times smaller memory footprint (2.2MiB vs. 340MiB-4.18GiB in SOTA models). Rigorous evaluation across six time-series tasks demonstrates that One-for-All achieves state-of-the-art efficiency-accuracy trade-offs: 5.5times higher parameter efficiency (MSE=5.50) than TimesNet and 21times better than GPT4TS, while matching their forecasting accuracy (MSE=0.33). The framework's stability is validated through consistent performance across diverse horizons (96-720 steps) and datasets (ETT, Weather, M3, M4), with 98.3% fewer parameters than conventional transformers. These advances enable deployment on edge devices for healthcare, finance, and environmental monitoring without compromising performance.

Effective LLM training depends on predictable scaling of key quantities -- such as final loss and optimal hyperparameters -- with model and dataset size. Qiu et al. (2025) recently showed that this predictability can extend beyond scalars: whole training loss curves can *collapse* onto a universal trajectory after a simple normalization. What remains unclear is whether this phenomenon persists for LLM families trained under *practical scaling recipes*, where width, depth, learning rate, batch size, and weight decay are scaled jointly. We show that it does: loss curves collapse across scales precisely when optimization hyperparameters are set optimally for the given data budget, in accordance with recent empirical scaling laws. Collapse therefore emerges as a signature of compute-efficient training. We demonstrate two applications at scale: (1) deviation-from-collapse provides a sensitive, early diagnostic of training pathologies, and (2) predictability of collapsed curves enables early stopping in large-scale hyperparameter tuning. Finally, we train a competitive LLM family, *Celerity*, using these insights, establishing collapse as an effective tool for developing efficient LLMs.

We present dla-ideal-solver, a high-performance framework for simulating two-dimensional Diffusion-Limited Aggregation (DLA) using Numba-accelerated Python. By leveraging just-in-time (JIT) compilation, we achieve computational throughput comparable to legacy static implementations while retaining high-level flexibility. We investigate the Laplacian growth instability across varying injection geometries and walker concentrations. Our analysis confirms the robustness of the standard fractal dimension D_f approx 1.71 for dilute regimes, consistent with the Witten-Sander universality class. However, we report a distinct crossover to Eden-like compact growth (D_f approx 1.87) in high-density environments, attributed to the saturation of the screening length. Beyond standard mass-radius scaling, we employ generalized Rényi dimensions and lacunarity metrics to quantify the monofractal character and spatial heterogeneity of the aggregates. This work establishes a reproducible, open-source testbed for exploring phase transitions in non-equilibrium statistical mechanics.

Synchronization in one dimension displays generic scale invariance with universal properties previously observed in surface kinetic roughening and the wider context of the Kardar-Parisi-Zhang (KPZ) universality class. This has been established for phase oscillators and also for some limit-cycle oscillators, both in the presence of columnar (quenched) disorder and of time-dependent noise, by extensive numerical simulations, and has been analytically motivated by continuum approximations in the strong oscillator coupling limit. The robustness and the precise boundaries in parameter space for such critical behavior remain unclear, however, which may preclude further developments, including the extension of these results to higher dimensions and the experimental observation of nonequilibrium criticality in synchronizing (e.g.~electronic or chemical) oscillators. We here present complete numerical phase diagrams of one-dimensional synchronization, including saturation times and values, but, most importantly, also dynamical features giving insight into the gradual emergence of synchronous dynamics, based on systems of phase oscillators with either type of randomness. In the absence of synchronization, the dynamics evolves as expected for random deposition (for time-dependent noise) or linear growth (for columnar disorder), while a crossover from Edwards-Wilkinson to Kardar-Parisi-Zhang behavior (with the corresponding type of randomness) is observed as the randomness strength, or the nonoddity of the coupling among oscillators, is increased in the synchronous region -- their combined effect being partially captured by the so-called KPZ coupling. The distortion of scaling due to phase slips near the desynchronization boundary, a feature that is likely to play a role in experimental contexts, is also discussed.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in settings where reasoning, such as multi-step problem solving and chain-of-thought, is essential. Yet, current evaluation practices overwhelmingly report single-run accuracy while ignoring the intrinsic uncertainty that naturally arises from stochastic decoding. This omission creates a blind spot because practitioners cannot reliably assess whether a method's reported performance is stable, reproducible, or cost-consistent. We introduce ReasonBENCH, the first benchmark designed to quantify the underlying instability in LLM reasoning. ReasonBENCH provides (i) a modular evaluation library that standardizes reasoning frameworks, models, and tasks, (ii) a multi-run protocol that reports statistically reliable metrics for both quality and cost, and (iii) a public leaderboard to encourage variance-aware reporting. Across tasks from different domains, we find that the vast majority of reasoning strategies and models exhibit high instability. Notably, even strategies with similar average performance can display confidence intervals up to four times wider, and the top-performing methods often incur higher and less stable costs. Such instability compromises reproducibility across runs and, consequently, the reliability of reported performance. To better understand these dynamics, we further analyze the impact of prompts, model families, and scale on the trade-off between solve rate and stability. Our results highlight reproducibility as a critical dimension for reliable LLM reasoning and provide a foundation for future reasoning methods and uncertainty quantification techniques. ReasonBENCH is publicly available at https://github.com/au-clan/ReasonBench .

Design of reliable systems must guarantee stability against input perturbations. In machine learning, such guarantee entails preventing overfitting and ensuring robustness of models against corruption of input data. In order to maximize stability, we analyze and develop a computationally efficient implementation of Jacobian regularization that increases classification margins of neural networks. The stabilizing effect of the Jacobian regularizer leads to significant improvements in robustness, as measured against both random and adversarial input perturbations, without severely degrading generalization properties on clean data.

Reliable evaluation is fundamental to the progress of Large Language Models (LLMs), yet the evaluation process during pre-training is plagued by significant instability that obscures true learning dynamics. In this work, we systematically diagnose this instability, attributing it to two distinct sources: Parameter Instability from training stochasticity and Evaluation Instability from noisy measurement protocols. To counteract both sources of noise, we introduce MaP, a dual-pronged framework that synergistically integrates checkpoint Merging and the Pass@k metric. Checkpoint merging smooths the parameter space by averaging recent model weights, while Pass@k provides a robust, low-variance statistical estimate of model capability. Extensive experiments show that MaP yields significantly smoother performance curves, reduces inter-run variance, and ensures more consistent model rankings. Ultimately, MaP provides a more reliable and faithful lens for observing LLM training dynamics, laying a crucial empirical foundation for LLM research.

Understanding how language model capabilities transfer from pretraining to supervised fine-tuning (SFT) is fundamental to efficient model development and data curation. In this work, we investigate four core questions: RQ1. To what extent do accuracy and confidence rankings established during pretraining persist after SFT? RQ2. Which benchmarks serve as robust cross-stage predictors and which are unreliable? RQ3. How do transfer dynamics shift with model scale? RQ4. How well does model confidence align with accuracy, as a measure of calibration quality? Does this alignment pattern transfer across training stages? We address these questions through a suite of correlation protocols applied to accuracy and confidence metrics across diverse data mixtures and model scales. Our experiments reveal that transfer reliability varies dramatically across capability categories, benchmarks, and scales -- with accuracy and confidence exhibiting distinct, sometimes opposing, scaling dynamics. These findings shed light on the complex interplay between pretraining decisions and downstream outcomes, providing actionable guidance for benchmark selection, data curation, and efficient model development.

Representational similarity analysis and related methods compare the internal geometries of neural networks, but they measure only alignment between spaces, leaving a blind spot -- whether a representation's structure is reliably recoverable, not merely similar. We introduce geometric stability, a distinct axis, and Shesha, a metric that quantifies it from a single representation by correlating dissimilarity matrices built from complementary random halves of the feature dimensions. Unlike CKA and Procrustes distance, Shesha is provably non-invariant to orthogonal rotations of the feature basis. This is by design: the basis is privileged for learned models, since probes, patching, and steering act on coordinates, and a rotation-invariant metric cannot see whether the targeted structure survives them. A double dissociation isolates the mechanism -- removing the top principal component collapses CKA while Shesha holds, whereas rotating a representation into its eigenbasis, which preserves the spectrum and CKA exactly, collapses Shesha. Across 2,463 encoder configurations in seven domains, the metrics are redundant under geometry-preserving transforms and anti-correlate under compression (ρ=-0.47). Across 170 vision models spanning 6 clean and 38 corruption-shifted datasets, DINOv2 ranks first or second in transferability on three of six clean datasets yet bottom-quartile in stability on five, an isolated dissociation rather than a trade-off.

Large language models trained on natural language exhibit pronounced anisotropy: a small number of directions concentrate disproportionate energy, while the remaining dimensions form a broad semantic tail. In low-bit training regimes, this geometry becomes numerically unstable. Because blockwise quantization scales are determined by extreme elementwise magnitudes, dominant directions stretch the dynamic range, compressing long-tail semantic variation into narrow numerical bins. We show that this instability is primarily driven by a coherent rank-one mean bias, which constitutes the dominant component of spectral anisotropy in LLM representations. This mean component emerges systematically across layers and training stages and accounts for the majority of extreme activation magnitudes, making it the principal driver of dynamic-range inflation under low precision. Crucially, because the dominant instability is rank-one, it can be eliminated through a simple source-level mean-subtraction operation. This bias-centric conditioning recovers most of the stability benefits of SVD-based spectral methods while requiring only reduction operations and standard quantization kernels. Empirical results on FP4 (W4A4G4) training show that mean removal substantially narrows the loss gap to BF16 and restores downstream performance, providing a hardware-efficient path to stable low-bit LLM training.

While scaling laws provide a reliable methodology for predicting train loss across compute scales for a single data distribution, less is known about how these predictions should change as we change the distribution. In this paper, we derive a strategy for predicting one loss from another and apply it to predict across different pre-training datasets and from pre-training data to downstream task data. Our predictions extrapolate well even at 20x the largest FLOP budget used to fit the curves. More precisely, we find that there are simple shifted power law relationships between (1) the train losses of two models trained on two separate datasets when the models are paired by training compute (train-to-train), (2) the train loss and the test loss on any downstream distribution for a single model (train-to-test), and (3) the test losses of two models trained on two separate train datasets (test-to-test). The results hold up for pre-training datasets that differ substantially (some are entirely code and others have no code at all) and across a variety of downstream tasks. Finally, we find that in some settings these shifted power law relationships can yield more accurate predictions than extrapolating single-dataset scaling laws.

We introduce a new predator-prey model by replacing the growth and predation constant by a square matrix, and the population density as a population vector. The classical Lotka-Volterra model describes a population that either modulates or converges. Stability analysis of such models have been extensively studied by the works of Merdan (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2007.06.062). The new model adds complexity by introducing an age group structure where the population of each age group evolves as prescribed by the Leslie matrix. The added complexity changes the behavior of the model such that the population either displays roughly an exponential growth or decay. We first provide an exact equation that describes a time evolution and use analytic techniques to obtain an approximate growth factor. We also discuss the variants of the Leslie model, i.e., the complex value predator-prey model and the competitive model. We then prove the Last Species Standing theorem that determines the dominant population in the large time limit. The recursive structure of the model denies the application of simple regression. We discuss a machine learning scheme that allows an admissible fit for the population evolution of Paramecium Aurelia and Paramecium Caudatum. Another potential avenue to simplify the computation is to use the machinery of quantum operators. We demonstrate the potential of this approach by computing the Hamiltonian of a simple Leslie system.

The capacity to precisely edit genomes has outpaced our ability to predict the consequences. A cell can be genetically perfect and therapeutically useless: edited exactly as intended, yet unstable, drifting toward unintended fates, or selected for properties that compromise safety. This paradox reflects a deeper gap in how we evaluate biological intervention. Current frameworks excel at measuring what was done to a cell but remain blind to what the cell has become. We argue that this blindness stems from treating cells as collections of independent variables rather than as dynamical systems occupying positions on high-dimensional state manifolds. Drawing on Waddington's epigenetic landscape, we propose geometric stability as a missing axis of evaluation: the directional coherence of cellular responses to perturbation. This metric distinguishes interventions that guide cells coherently toward stable states from those that scatter them across the state manifold. Validation across diverse perturbation datasets reveals that geometric stability captures regulatory architecture invisible to conventional metrics, discriminating pleiotropic master regulators from lineage-specific factors without prior biological annotation. As precision medicine increasingly relies on cellular reprogramming, the question shifts from ``did the intervention occur?'' to ``is the resulting state stable?'' Geometric stability provides a framework for answering.

Scaling laws predict loss from compute but not how capabilities interact. We measure the coupling between reasoning and truthfulness across 63 base models from 16 families and find a regime change invisible to loss curves: below a family-dependent critical scale N_c, capabilities anticorrelate; above it, they cooperate. N_c approx 3.5B parameters [2.9B, 13.4B] (bootstrap 95% CI), but model size is not the only variable that determines phase. Architecture, data curation, and training recipe each shift N_c independently: curated training eliminated the coupling dip between Qwen generations (0.025 to 0.830 at matched scale), Gemma-4 at 4B achieves coupling 0.871, characteristic of 13B+ standard-trained models, through distillation and architectural innovation, and Phi at 1B matches web-trained coupling at 10B through data curation alone. Width normalization eliminates the anticorrelation across all tested families, supporting an output-projection bottleneck. Internally, 38 of 40 models show zero competing attention heads. A sparse-regression ODE cross-predicts held-out Llama-2 at 5.6% error. The diagnostic requires no model internals -- only public benchmark scores across a model family. The cooperative regime extends to the frontier (r = +0.72, 34 models, 10 labs). Code, data, and an open-source activation-steering tool for any open-weight model are released alongside an interactive dashboard that diagnoses any model's coupling phase, suggests concrete interventions (data curation, width, benchmark rotation), and provides ODE scaling predictions, frontier diagnostics, and eigenstructure analysis: https://zehenlabs.com/cape/.

We introduce Leap+Verify, a framework that applies speculative execution -- predicting future model weights and validating predictions before acceptance -- to accelerate neural network training. Inspired by speculative decoding in language model inference and by the Automatically Scalable Computation (ASC) architecture for program execution, Leap+Verify decomposes training into three dynamically detected regimes (chaotic, transition, stable) using activation-space cosine similarity as a real-time Lyapunov proxy signal. Within each regime, analytic weight predictors (momentum, linear, quadratic extrapolation) attempt to forecast model parameters K training steps ahead; predictions are accepted only when validated against a held-out loss criterion. We evaluate Leap+Verify on GPT-2 124M and Qwen 2.5-1.5B trained on WikiText-103 across five random seeds, sweeping prediction depth K in {5, 10, 25, 50, 75, 100}. Momentum-based prediction (Adam moment extrapolation) fails catastrophically at both scales, with predicted losses exceeding actuals by 100-10,000x -- a universal norm explosion in optimizer-state extrapolation. Finite-difference predictors (linear, quadratic) succeed where momentum fails: at 124M, they achieve 24% strict acceptance at K=5 in stable regimes; at 1.5B, they achieve 37% strict acceptance in transition regimes. The scale-dependent finding is in regime distribution: GPT-2 124M spends 34% of training in stable regime, while Qwen 1.5B spends 64% in chaotic regime and reaches stable in only 0-2 of 40 checkpoints. Larger models are more predictable when predictable, but less often predictable -- the practical bottleneck shifts from predictor accuracy to regime availability. Cross-seed results are highly consistent (less than 1% validation loss variance), and the three-regime framework produces identical phase boundaries (plus or minus 50 steps) across seeds.

Efficient LLM pre-training requires well-tuned hyperparameters (HPs), including learning rate {\eta} and weight decay {\lambda}. We study scaling laws for HPs: formulas for how to scale HPs as we scale model size N, dataset size D, and batch size B. Recent work suggests the AdamW timescale, B/({\eta}{\lambda}D), should remain constant across training settings, and we verify the implication that optimal {\lambda} scales linearly with B, for a fixed N,D. However, as N,D scale, we show the optimal timescale obeys a precise power law in the tokens-per-parameter ratio, D/N. This law thus provides a method to accurately predict {\lambda}opt in advance of large-scale training. We also study scaling laws for optimal batch size Bopt (the B enabling lowest loss at a given N,D) and critical batch size Bcrit (the B beyond which further data parallelism becomes ineffective). In contrast with prior work, we find both Bopt and Bcrit scale as power laws in D, independent of model size, N. Finally, we analyze how these findings inform the real-world selection of Pareto-optimal N and D under dual training time and compute objectives.

Current models of representational reliability in neural populations focus on temporal stability: whether population centroids are preserved across sessions and days. This framing leaves a fundamental question unanswered: how reliably does the pairwise distance structure among stimuli reproduce across independent observations within a session? We argue that this property, geometric stability, constitutes an independent axis of representational analysis that existing frameworks do not capture. We formalize geometric stability as the Spearman rank correlation between split-half representational dissimilarity matrices (Shesha) and show that it is empirically dissociable from both temporal stability and decoding accuracy. Across 229 area-session observations spanning 68 brain regions in a visual discrimination task (Steinmetz et al. 2019), geometric stability predicts trial-by-trial neural-behavioral coupling (ρ= 0.18, p = 0.005) while centroid drift does not (ρ= 0.002, p = 0.976). The regional hierarchy, with striatum most stable (S = 0.44) and hippocampus least (S = 0.19), runs roughly opposite to the temporal stability hierarchy. Directionally consistent olfactory data (Bolding \& Franks 2018) motivate an attractor network model in which recurrent excitatory coupling amplifies split-half RDM consistency by completing stimulus patterns from sparse feedforward input (ρ= +0.64, p = 0.010), providing a circuit-level account of how geometric stability emerges. These results establish geometric stability as a functionally relevant, circuit-dependent property of neural population codes, orthogonal to temporal drift measures and complementary to recent accounts of how recurrent connectivity balances representational stability with sequential dynamics in hippocampal circuits.

Scaling up neural networks has led to remarkable performance across a wide range of tasks. Moreover, performance often follows reliable scaling laws as a function of training set size, model size, and compute, which offers valuable guidance as large-scale experiments are becoming increasingly expensive. However, previous work on scaling laws has primarily used private data \& models or focused on uni-modal language or vision learning. To address these limitations, we investigate scaling laws for contrastive language-image pre-training (CLIP) with the public LAION dataset and the open-source OpenCLIP repository. Our large-scale experiments involve models trained on up to two billion image-text pairs and identify power law scaling for multiple downstream tasks including zero-shot classification, retrieval, linear probing, and end-to-end fine-tuning. We find that the training distribution plays a key role in scaling laws as the OpenAI and OpenCLIP models exhibit different scaling behavior despite identical model architectures and similar training recipes. We open-source our evaluation workflow and all models, including the largest public CLIP models, to ensure reproducibility and make scaling laws research more accessible. Source code and instructions to reproduce this study will be available at https://github.com/LAION-AI/scaling-laws-openclip

Contemporary AGI evaluations report multidomain capability profiles, yet they typically assign symmetric weights and rely on snapshot scores. This creates two problems: (i) equal weighting treats all domains as equally important when human intelligence research suggests otherwise, and (ii) snapshot testing can't distinguish durable capabilities from brittle performances that collapse under delay or stress. I argue that general intelligence -- in humans and potentially in machines -- is better understood as a homeostatic property cluster: a set of abilities plus the mechanisms that keep those abilities co-present under perturbation. On this view, AGI evaluation should weight domains by their causal centrality (their contribution to cluster stability) and require evidence of persistence across sessions. I propose two battery-compatible extensions: a centrality-prior score that imports CHC-derived weights with transparent sensitivity analysis, and a Cluster Stability Index family that separates profile persistence, durable learning, and error correction. These additions preserve multidomain breadth while reducing brittleness and gaming. I close with testable predictions and black-box protocols labs can adopt without architectural access.

Scale variation is a fundamental challenge in computer vision. Objects of the same class can have different sizes, and their perceived size is further affected by the distance from the camera. These variations are local to the objects, i.e., different object sizes may change differently within the same image. To effectively handle scale variations, we present a deep equilibrium canonicalizer (DEC) to improve the local scale equivariance of a model. DEC can be easily incorporated into existing network architectures and can be adapted to a pre-trained model. Notably, we show that on the competitive ImageNet benchmark, DEC improves both model performance and local scale consistency across four popular pre-trained deep-nets, e.g., ViT, DeiT, Swin, and BEiT. Our code is available at https://github.com/ashiq24/local-scale-equivariance.

We study empirical scaling laws for language model performance on the cross-entropy loss. The loss scales as a power-law with model size, dataset size, and the amount of compute used for training, with some trends spanning more than seven orders of magnitude. Other architectural details such as network width or depth have minimal effects within a wide range. Simple equations govern the dependence of overfitting on model/dataset size and the dependence of training speed on model size. These relationships allow us to determine the optimal allocation of a fixed compute budget. Larger models are significantly more sample-efficient, such that optimally compute-efficient training involves training very large models on a relatively modest amount of data and stopping significantly before convergence.

Lagrangian turbulence lies at the core of numerous applied and fundamental problems related to the physics of dispersion and mixing in engineering, bio-fluids, atmosphere, oceans, and astrophysics. Despite exceptional theoretical, numerical, and experimental efforts conducted over the past thirty years, no existing models are capable of faithfully reproducing statistical and topological properties exhibited by particle trajectories in turbulence. We propose a machine learning approach, based on a state-of-the-art diffusion model, to generate single-particle trajectories in three-dimensional turbulence at high Reynolds numbers, thereby bypassing the need for direct numerical simulations or experiments to obtain reliable Lagrangian data. Our model demonstrates the ability to reproduce most statistical benchmarks across time scales, including the fat-tail distribution for velocity increments, the anomalous power law, and the increased intermittency around the dissipative scale. Slight deviations are observed below the dissipative scale, particularly in the acceleration and flatness statistics. Surprisingly, the model exhibits strong generalizability for extreme events, producing events of higher intensity and rarity that still match the realistic statistics. This paves the way for producing synthetic high-quality datasets for pre-training various downstream applications of Lagrangian turbulence.

The population loss of trained deep neural networks often follows precise power-law scaling relations with either the size of the training dataset or the number of parameters in the network. We propose a theory that explains the origins of and connects these scaling laws. We identify variance-limited and resolution-limited scaling behavior for both dataset and model size, for a total of four scaling regimes. The variance-limited scaling follows simply from the existence of a well-behaved infinite data or infinite width limit, while the resolution-limited regime can be explained by positing that models are effectively resolving a smooth data manifold. In the large width limit, this can be equivalently obtained from the spectrum of certain kernels, and we present evidence that large width and large dataset resolution-limited scaling exponents are related by a duality. We exhibit all four scaling regimes in the controlled setting of large random feature and pretrained models and test the predictions empirically on a range of standard architectures and datasets. We also observe several empirical relationships between datasets and scaling exponents under modifications of task and architecture aspect ratio. Our work provides a taxonomy for classifying different scaling regimes, underscores that there can be different mechanisms driving improvements in loss, and lends insight into the microscopic origins of and relationships between scaling exponents.

Model uncertainty and limited data are fundamental challenges to robust management of human intervention in a natural system. These challenges are acutely highlighted by concerns that many ecological systems may contain tipping points, such as Allee population sizes. Before a collapse, we do not know where the tipping points lie, if they exist at all. Hence, we know neither a complete model of the system dynamics nor do we have access to data in some large region of state-space where such a tipping point might exist. We illustrate how a Bayesian Non-Parametric (BNP) approach using a Gaussian Process (GP) prior provides a flexible representation of this inherent uncertainty. We embed GPs in a Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) framework in order to make robust management predictions with both model uncertainty and limited data. We use simulations to evaluate this approach as compared with the standard approach of using model selection to choose from a set of candidate models. We find that model selection erroneously favors models without tipping points -- leading to harvest policies that guarantee extinction. The GPDP performs nearly as well as the true model and significantly outperforms standard approaches. We illustrate this using examples of simulated single-species dynamics, where the standard model selection approach should be most effective, and find that it still fails to account for uncertainty appropriately and leads to population crashes, while management based on the GPDP does not, since it does not underestimate the uncertainty outside of the observed data.

Training instability remains a critical challenge in large language model (LLM) pretraining, often manifesting as sudden gradient explosions that waste significant computational resources. We study training failures in a 5M-parameter NanoGPT model scaled via μP, identifying two key phenomena preceding collapse: (1) rapid decline in weight matrix stable rank (ratio of squared Frobenius norm to squared spectral norm), and (2) increasing alignment between adjacent layer Jacobians. We prove theoretically that these two conditions jointly cause exponential gradient norm growth with network depth. To break this instability mechanism, we propose MSign, a new optimizer that periodically applies matrix sign operations to restore stable rank. Experiments on models from 5M to 3B parameters demonstrate that MSign effectively prevents training failures with a computational overhead of less than 7.0%.

Neural operators have proven to be a promising approach for modeling spatiotemporal systems in the physical sciences. However, training these models for large systems can be quite challenging as they incur significant computational and memory expense -- these systems are often forced to rely on autoregressive time-stepping of the neural network to predict future temporal states. While this is effective in managing costs, it can lead to uncontrolled error growth over time and eventual instability. We analyze the sources of this autoregressive error growth using prototypical neural operator models for physical systems and explore ways to mitigate it. We introduce architectural and application-specific improvements that allow for careful control of instability-inducing operations within these models without inflating the compute/memory expense. We present results on several scientific systems that include Navier-Stokes fluid flow, rotating shallow water, and a high-resolution global weather forecasting system. We demonstrate that applying our design principles to neural operators leads to significantly lower errors for long-term forecasts as well as longer time horizons without qualitative signs of divergence compared to the original models for these systems. We open-source our https://github.com/mikemccabe210/stabilizing_neural_operators{code} for reproducibility.

We explore a minimal scenario where the sole Standard-Model Higgs is responsible for reheating the Universe after inflation, produces a significant background of gravitational waves and maintains the full classical stability of the electroweak vacuum. As the Higgs self-coupling runs toward negative values at high energy scales, a non-minimal interaction with curvature during a stiff background expansion era drives the Higgs fluctuations closer to the instability scale. This curvature-induced tachyonic instability leads to an intense production of Higgs particles, accompanied by a stochastic gravitational-wave background. The characteristic features of such signal can be directly correlated to the inflationary scale, the non-minimal coupling parameter and the top quark Yukawa coupling. We distinguish between three possible scenarios: absolute stability with low top quark masses, potential vacuum instability, and absolute stability with new physics above the instability scale. Our findings suggest that the detection of a peaked background of gravitational waves together with its inflationary tail has the potential to unveil the features of the Higgs effective potential at very high energy scales while providing a minimal explanation for the reheating phase and the emergence of the Standard-Model plasma in the early Universe. Unlike other studies in the literature, the generation of gravitational waves in our scenario does not depend on the quantum instability of the Standard Model vacuum.

The dynamical realisation of the equation of state p +rho =0 is studied. A non-pathological dynamics for the perturbations of such a system mimicking a dynamical cosmological constant (DCC) requires to go beyond the perfect fluid paradigm. It is shown that an anisotropic stress must be always present. The Hamiltonian of the system in isolation resembles the one of a Pais-Uhlenbeck oscillator and linear stability requires that it cannot be positive definite. The dynamics of linear cosmological perturbations in a DCC dominated Universe is studied in detail showing that when DCC is minimally coupled to gravity no dramatic instability is present. In contrast to what happens in a cosmological constant dominated Universe, the non-relativistic matter contrast is no longer constant and exhibits an oscillator behaviour at small scales while it grows weakly at large scales. In the gravitational waves sector, at small scales, the amplitude is still suppressed as the inverse power of the scale factor while it grows logarithmically at large scales. Also the vector modes propagate, though no growing mode is found.

Deep learning (DL) creates impactful advances following a virtuous recipe: model architecture search, creating large training data sets, and scaling computation. It is widely believed that growing training sets and models should improve accuracy and result in better products. As DL application domains grow, we would like a deeper understanding of the relationships between training set size, computational scale, and model accuracy improvements to advance the state-of-the-art. This paper presents a large scale empirical characterization of generalization error and model size growth as training sets grow. We introduce a methodology for this measurement and test four machine learning domains: machine translation, language modeling, image processing, and speech recognition. Our empirical results show power-law generalization error scaling across a breadth of factors, resulting in power-law exponents---the "steepness" of the learning curve---yet to be explained by theoretical work. Further, model improvements only shift the error but do not appear to affect the power-law exponent. We also show that model size scales sublinearly with data size. These scaling relationships have significant implications on deep learning research, practice, and systems. They can assist model debugging, setting accuracy targets, and decisions about data set growth. They can also guide computing system design and underscore the importance of continued computational scaling.

Understanding how language model performance varies with scale is critical to benchmark and algorithm development. Scaling laws are one approach to building this understanding, but the requirement of training models across many different scales has limited their use. We propose an alternative, observational approach that bypasses model training and instead builds scaling laws from ~80 publically available models. Building a single scaling law from multiple model families is challenging due to large variations in their training compute efficiencies and capabilities. However, we show that these variations are consistent with a simple, generalized scaling law where language model performance is a function of a low-dimensional capability space, and model families only vary in their efficiency in converting training compute to capabilities. Using this approach, we show the surprising predictability of complex scaling phenomena: we show that several emergent phenomena follow a smooth, sigmoidal behavior and are predictable from small models; we show that the agent performance of models such as GPT-4 can be precisely predicted from simpler non-agentic benchmarks; and we show how to predict the impact of post-training interventions like Chain-of-Thought and Self-Consistency as language model capabilities continue to improve.

The scientific scale-up of large language models (LLMs) necessitates a comprehensive understanding of their scaling properties. However, the existing literature on the scaling properties only yields an incomplete answer: optimization loss decreases predictably as the model size increases, in line with established scaling law; yet no scaling law for task has been established and the task performances are far from predictable during scaling. Task performances typically show minor gains on small models until they improve dramatically once models exceed a size threshold, exemplifying the ``emergent abilities''. In this study, we discover that small models, although they exhibit minor performance, demonstrate critical and consistent task performance improvements that are not captured by conventional evaluation strategies due to insufficient measurement resolution. To measure such improvements, we introduce PassUntil, an evaluation strategy through massive sampling in the decoding phase. We conduct quantitative investigations into the scaling law of task performance. Firstly, a strict task scaling law is identified, enhancing the predictability of task performances. Remarkably, we are able to predict the performance of the 2.4B model on code generation with merely 0.05\% deviation before training starts. Secondly, underpinned by PassUntil, we observe concrete evidence of emergent abilities and ascertain that they are not in conflict with the continuity of performance improvement. Their semblance to break-through is that their scaling curve cannot be fitted by standard scaling law function. We then introduce a mathematical definition for the emergent abilities. Through the definition, we refute a prevalent ``multi-step reasoning hypothesis'' regarding the genesis of emergent abilities and propose a new hypothesis with a satisfying fit to the observed scaling curve.

As AI model size grows, neural scaling laws have become a crucial tool to predict the improvements of large models when increasing capacity and the size of original (human or natural) training data. Yet, the widespread use of popular models means that the ecosystem of online data and text will co-evolve to progressively contain increased amounts of synthesized data. In this paper we ask: How will the scaling laws change in the inevitable regime where synthetic data makes its way into the training corpus? Will future models, still improve, or be doomed to degenerate up to total (model) collapse? We develop a theoretical framework of model collapse through the lens of scaling laws. We discover a wide range of decay phenomena, analyzing loss of scaling, shifted scaling with number of generations, the ''un-learning" of skills, and grokking when mixing human and synthesized data. Our theory is validated by large-scale experiments with a transformer on an arithmetic task and text generation using the large language model Llama2.

Benchmarks shape scientific conclusions about model capabilities and steer model development. This creates a feedback loop: stronger benchmarks drive better models, and better models demand more discriminative benchmarks. Ensuring benchmark reliability is therefore essential for trustworthy evaluation and meaningful progress. In this work, we study benchmark reliability from a distributional perspective and introduce benchmark harmony, which measures how uniformly a model's performance is distributed across the subdomains of a benchmark. We posit that high harmony is a desirable benchmark property, indicating that the aggregate metric reflects uniform competence across subdomains. Across 19 multiple-choice benchmarks and five model families, we map each benchmark onto a mean-variance plane of harmony computed across models, where high mean and low variance signal more reliable evaluation. Our analysis shows that less harmonious benchmarks can give misleading results, since overall accuracy may be disproportionately influenced by specific subdomains. For instance, ARC-Easy is overwhelmed by questions on Biological Concepts, overshadowing other critical subdomains such as Geography, Physics, Chemistry, and Environmental Science. By recommending that harmony should be reported alongside accuracy, we reframe evaluation from simple performance averages to a more robust, distributionally reliable measurement of performance.

Empirical scaling laws prescribe how to allocate parameters, data, and compute, while maximal-update parameterization (muP) enables learning-rate transfer across widths by equalizing early-time update magnitudes. However, in modern scale-invariant architectures, training quickly enters an optimizer-governed steady state where normalization layers create backward scale sensitivity and the effective learning rate becomes width dependent, degrading muP transfer. We address this by introducing a weight-decay scaling rule for AdamW that preserves sublayer gain across widths. Empirically, the singular-value spectrum of each matrix parameter scales in norm as eta/lambda with an approximately invariant shape; under width scaling d, we observe that the top singular value scales approximately as eta/lambdacdot d^{0.75}. Combining this observation with the muP learning-rate rule eta_2propto d^{-1} for matrix-like parameters implies an empirical weight-decay scaling rule lambda_2propto d that approximately keeps sublayer gains width invariant. Together with vector-like parameters trained at eta_1=Theta_d(1) and lambda_1=0, this yields zero-shot transfer of both learning rate and weight decay from proxy to target widths, removing per-width sweeps. We validate the rule on LLaMA-style Transformers and in a minimal synthetic setting, and we provide a simple diagnostic, matching top singular values, to check sublayer-gain invariance. Our results extend muP beyond the near-init regime by explicitly controlling steady-state scales set by the optimizer, offering a practical recipe for width-robust hyperparameter transfer under AdamW.