Daily Papers

We study short-horizon forecasting of weekly terrorism incident counts using the Global Terrorism Database (GTD, 1970--2016). We build a reproducible pipeline with fixed time-based splits and evaluate a Bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM) against strong classical anchors (seasonal-naive, linear/ARIMA) and a deep LSTM-Attention baseline. On the held-out test set, the BiLSTM attains RMSE 6.38, outperforming LSTM-Attention (9.19; +30.6\%) and a linear lag-regression baseline (+35.4\% RMSE gain), with parallel improvements in MAE and MAPE. Ablations varying temporal memory, training-history length, spatial grain, lookback size, and feature groups show that models trained on long historical data generalize best; a moderate lookback (20--30 weeks) provides strong context; and bidirectional encoding is critical for capturing both build-up and aftermath patterns within the window. Feature-group analysis indicates that short-horizon structure (lagged counts and rolling statistics) contributes most, with geographic and casualty features adding incremental lift. We release code, configs, and compact result tables, and provide a data/ethics statement documenting GTD licensing and research-only use. Overall, the study offers a transparent, baseline-beating reference for GTD incident forecasting.

Time-series forecasting research has been moving steadily toward larger architectures, from specialized transformers to general-purpose foundation models, on the assumption that capacity is what unlocks accuracy. We take the opposite position: most of the gap can be closed at far lower cost by tuning preprocessing rather than scaling models. We use Ridge regression as the testbed, since it has a closed-form solution and interpretable weights, which let the optimal hyperparameters be read off the search directly. We search over context length, local normalization, regularization, and augmentation on eight standard benchmarks and find three patterns. (1) Optimal lookback is strongly series-specific and often non-monotonic in forecast horizon, with fitted power-law exponents ranging from +0.46 on ETTm2 to -0.19 on Exchange and Traffic, challenging the convention that longer horizons need longer history. (2) Normalizing over a learned trailing fraction of the context, rather than its entirety, is almost universally preferred. (3) Series within the same dataset often disagree on hyperparameters; the optimal degree of cross-series sharing varies from fully shared to fully per-series. The resulting models beat prior linear forecasters on most dataset-horizon entries and exceed Transformer, MLP, and CNN baselines on six of eight benchmarks. The optimized hyperparameters also serve as a diagnostic on the data itself, revealing structures that larger models absorb silently into their learned parameters.

Given a prefix (context), open-ended generation aims to decode texts that are coherent, which do not abruptly drift from previous topics, and informative, which do not suffer from undesired repetitions. In this paper, we propose Look-back, an improved decoding algorithm that leverages the Kullback-Leibler divergence to track the distribution distance between current and historical decoding steps. Thus Look-back can automatically predict potential repetitive phrase and topic drift, and remove tokens that may cause the failure modes, restricting the next token probability distribution within a plausible distance to the history. We perform decoding experiments on document continuation and story generation, and demonstrate that Look-back is able to generate more fluent and coherent text, outperforming other strong decoding methods significantly in both automatic and human evaluations.

With the huge growth in e-commerce domain, product recommendations have become an increasing field of interest amongst e-commerce companies. One of the more difficult tasks in product recommendations is size and fit predictions. There are a lot of size related returns and refunds in e-fashion domain which causes inconvenience to the customers as well as costs the company. Thus having a good size and fit recommendation system, which can predict the correct sizes for the customers will not only reduce size related returns and refunds but also improve customer experience. Early works in this field used traditional machine learning approaches to estimate customer and product sizes from purchase history. These methods suffered from cold start problem due to huge sparsity in the customer-product data. More recently, people have used deep learning to address this problem by embedding customer and product features. But none of them incorporates valuable customer feedback present on product pages along with the customer and product features. We propose a novel approach which can use information from customer reviews along with customer and product features for size and fit predictions. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach compared to using just product and customer features on 4 datasets. Our method shows an improvement of 1.37% - 4.31% in F1 (macro) score over the baseline across the 4 different datasets.

In this paper, we present LookBench (We use the term "look" to reflect retrieval that mirrors how people shop -- finding the exact item, a close substitute, or a visually consistent alternative.), a live, holistic and challenging benchmark for fashion image retrieval in real e-commerce settings. LookBench includes both recent product images sourced from live websites and AI-generated fashion images, reflecting contemporary trends and use cases. Each test sample is time-stamped and we intend to update the benchmark periodically, enabling contamination-aware evaluation aligned with declared training cutoffs. Grounded in our fine-grained attribute taxonomy, LookBench covers single-item and outfit-level retrieval across. Our experiments reveal that LookBench poses a significant challenge on strong baselines, with many models achieving below 60% Recall@1. Our proprietary model achieves the best performance on LookBench, and we release an open-source counterpart that ranks second, with both models attaining state-of-the-art results on legacy Fashion200K evaluations. LookBench is designed to be updated semi-annually with new test samples and progressively harder task variants, providing a durable measure of progress. We publicly release our leaderboard, dataset, evaluation code, and trained models.

The ability of large vision-language models (LVLMs) to critique and correct their reasoning is an essential building block towards their self-improvement. However, a systematic analysis of such capabilities in LVLMs is still lacking. We propose VISCO, the first benchmark to extensively analyze the fine-grained critique and correction capabilities of LVLMs. Compared to existing work that uses a single scalar value to critique the entire reasoning [4], VISCO features dense and fine-grained critique, requiring LVLMs to evaluate the correctness of each step in the chain-of-thought and provide natural language explanations to support their judgments. Extensive evaluation of 24 LVLMs demonstrates that human-written critiques significantly enhance the performance after correction, showcasing the potential of the self-improvement strategy. However, the model-generated critiques are less helpful and sometimes detrimental to the performance, suggesting that critique is the crucial bottleneck. We identified three common patterns in critique failures: failure to critique visual perception, reluctance to "say no", and exaggerated assumption of error propagation. To address these issues, we propose an effective LookBack strategy that revisits the image to verify each piece of information in the initial reasoning. LookBack significantly improves critique and correction performance by up to 13.5%.

Deep neural networks are increasingly utilized in various machine learning tasks. However, as these models grow in complexity, they often face calibration issues, despite enhanced prediction accuracy. Many studies have endeavored to improve calibration performance through the use of specific loss functions, data preprocessing and training frameworks. Yet, investigations into calibration properties have been somewhat overlooked. Our study leverages the Neural Architecture Search (NAS) search space, offering an exhaustive model architecture space for thorough calibration properties exploration. We specifically create a model calibration dataset. This dataset evaluates 90 bin-based and 12 additional calibration measurements across 117,702 unique neural networks within the widely employed NATS-Bench search space. Our analysis aims to answer several longstanding questions in the field, using our proposed dataset: (i) Can model calibration be generalized across different datasets? (ii) Can robustness be used as a calibration measurement? (iii) How reliable are calibration metrics? (iv) Does a post-hoc calibration method affect all models uniformly? (v) How does calibration interact with accuracy? (vi) What is the impact of bin size on calibration measurement? (vii) Which architectural designs are beneficial for calibration? Additionally, our study bridges an existing gap by exploring calibration within NAS. By providing this dataset, we enable further research into NAS calibration. As far as we are aware, our research represents the first large-scale investigation into calibration properties and the premier study of calibration issues within NAS. The project page can be found at https://www.taolinwei.com/calibration-study

Efficient LLM pre-training requires well-tuned hyperparameters (HPs), including learning rate {\eta} and weight decay {\lambda}. We study scaling laws for HPs: formulas for how to scale HPs as we scale model size N, dataset size D, and batch size B. Recent work suggests the AdamW timescale, B/({\eta}{\lambda}D), should remain constant across training settings, and we verify the implication that optimal {\lambda} scales linearly with B, for a fixed N,D. However, as N,D scale, we show the optimal timescale obeys a precise power law in the tokens-per-parameter ratio, D/N. This law thus provides a method to accurately predict {\lambda}opt in advance of large-scale training. We also study scaling laws for optimal batch size Bopt (the B enabling lowest loss at a given N,D) and critical batch size Bcrit (the B beyond which further data parallelism becomes ineffective). In contrast with prior work, we find both Bopt and Bcrit scale as power laws in D, independent of model size, N. Finally, we analyze how these findings inform the real-world selection of Pareto-optimal N and D under dual training time and compute objectives.

We introduce WebApp1K, a practical code-generation benchmark to measure LLM ability to develop web apps. This benchmark aims to calibrate LLM output and aid the models to progressively improve code correctness and functionality. The benchmark is lightweight and easy to run. We present the initial version of WebApp1K, and share our findings of running the benchmark against the latest frontier LLMs. First, open source LLMs deliver impressive performance, closely trailing behind GPT-4o and Claude 3.5. Second, model size has strong correlation with code correctness. Third, no prompting techniques have been found to lift performance either universally to all models, or significantly to a single model.

Training large-scale models under given resources requires careful design of parallelism strategies. In particular, the efficiency notion of critical batch size (CBS), concerning the compromise between time and compute, marks the threshold beyond which greater data parallelism leads to diminishing returns. To operationalize it, we propose a measure of CBS and pre-train a series of auto-regressive language models, ranging from 85 million to 1.2 billion parameters, on the C4 dataset. Through extensive hyper-parameter sweeps and careful control of factors such as batch size, momentum, and learning rate along with its scheduling, we systematically investigate the impact of scale on CBS. Then we fit scaling laws with respect to model and data sizes to decouple their effects. Overall, our results demonstrate that CBS scales primarily with data size rather than model size, a finding we justify theoretically through the analysis of infinite-width limits of neural networks and infinite-dimensional least squares regression. Of independent interest, we highlight the importance of common hyper-parameter choices and strategies for studying large-scale pre-training beyond fixed training durations.

We develop a statistical procedure to detect lookahead bias in economic forecasts generated by large language models (LLMs). Using a date-only recall query for a firm-date pair, we estimate the probability that the LLM has internalized information about the realized outcome, a statistic we term Lookahead Propensity (LAP). LAP is materially positive throughout the in-sample period and collapses essentially to zero right after the training-data cutoff. We show that a positive interaction between LAP and the LLM forecast in an accuracy regression indicates lookahead-bias contamination, and apply the test to two forecasting tasks: news headlines predicting stock returns and earnings call transcripts predicting capital expenditures. In both applications, the LLM forecast's predictive power is amplified on high-LAP firm-date pairs, and the interaction loses significance on post-training-cutoff samples. Our test provides a cost-efficient, diagnostic tool for assessing the validity and reliability of LLM-generated forecasts.

Political scientists are rapidly adopting large language models (LLMs) for text annotation, yet the sensitivity of annotation results to implementation choices remains poorly understood. Most evaluations test a single model or configuration; how model choice, model size, learning approach, and prompt style interact, and whether popular "best practices" survive controlled comparison, are largely unexplored. We present a controlled evaluation of these pipeline choices, testing six open-weight models across four political science annotation tasks under identical quantisation, hardware, and prompt-template conditions. Our central finding is methodological: interaction effects dominate main effects, so seemingly reasonable pipeline choices can become consequential researcher degrees of freedom. No single model, prompt style, or learning approach is uniformly superior, and the best-performing model varies across tasks. Two corollaries follow. First, model size is an unreliable guide both to cost and to performance: cross-family efficiency differences are so large that some larger models are less resource-intensive than much smaller alternatives, while within model families mid-range variants often match or exceed larger counterparts. Second, widely recommended prompt engineering techniques yield inconsistent and sometimes negative effects on annotation performance. We use these benchmark results to develop a validation-first framework - with a principled ordering of pipeline decisions, guidance on prompt freezing and held-out evaluation, reporting standards, and open-source tools - to help researchers navigate this decision space transparently.

Loss Given Default (LGD) modeling faces a fundamental data quality constraint: 90% of available training data consists of proxy estimates based on pre-distress balance sheets rather than actual recovery outcomes from completed bankruptcy proceedings. We demonstrate that this mixture-contaminated training structure causes systematic failure of recursive partitioning methods, with Random Forest achieving negative r-squared (-0.664, worse than predicting the mean) on held-out test data. Information-theoretic approaches based on Shannon entropy and mutual information provide superior generalization, achieving r-squared of 0.191 and RMSE of 0.284 on 1,218 corporate bankruptcies (1980-2023). Analysis reveals that leverage-based features contain 1.510 bits of mutual information while size effects contribute only 0.086 bits, contradicting regulatory assumptions about scale-dependent recovery. These results establish practical guidance for financial institutions deploying LGD models under Basel III requirements when representative outcome data is unavailable at sufficient scale. The findings generalize to medical outcomes research, climate forecasting, and technology reliability-domains where extended observation periods create unavoidable mixture structure in training data.

In value-based deep reinforcement learning with replay memories, the batch size parameter specifies how many transitions to sample for each gradient update. Although critical to the learning process, this value is typically not adjusted when proposing new algorithms. In this work we present a broad empirical study that suggests {\em reducing} the batch size can result in a number of significant performance gains; this is surprising, as the general tendency when training neural networks is towards larger batch sizes for improved performance. We complement our experimental findings with a set of empirical analyses towards better understanding this phenomenon.