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Jul 24

Perfect Detection, Failed Control: The Geometry of Knowing vs. Steering in Language Models

A central aspiration of mechanistic interpretability is controllability: if we know where a behavior is represented in a model's activations, we should be able to modify it. This rests on a hidden premise -- that the direction which detects a behavior and the direction which controls it are the same, or close. We test this geometrically: what is the angle between the direction that best detects a behavior and the one that best causes it? If detection implies control the cosine is near 1; otherwise it quantifies a detection-intervention gap. On Gemma 2-2B-it, output format (clean JSON vs markdown fencing) collapses both roles onto one axis. Hallucination does not: the model detects fake entities with perfect linear separability (AUC = 1.000 from layer 5), yet that direction sits at cos = 0.12 (about 83 degrees) from the direction producing a refusal -- a small, reproducible alignment, far from the cos = 1 that "detection is control" would require. A detector built from activations, with no chosen tokens, likewise fails to align (cos = -0.06). The gap generalizes: across four models from three families and two scales (1B-9B), cos stays in [0.12, 0.20], identical before and after instruction tuning (0.1197 vs 0.1200), placing its origin in pretraining. A 15-degree rotation toward the refusal direction partially bridges it -- 73% and 60% refusal on two held-out fake-entity categories at 1.8% false positives. We then ask whether this cosine predicts steerability, and it does not: detection is a high-dimensional class, not a single direction, and what separates the steerable case is functional, not readable from a static angle. The cosine is a weight-computable signature of the dissociation between knowing and steering, not a predictor of it.

  • 5 authors
·
Jun 22

Fill the GAP: A Granular Alignment Paradigm for Visual Reasoning in Multimodal Large Language Models

Visual latent reasoning lets a multimodal large language model (MLLM) create intermediate visual evidence as continuous tokens, avoiding external tools or image generators. However, existing methods usually follow an output-as-input latent paradigm and yield unstable gains. We identify evidence for a feature-space mismatch that can contribute to this instability: dominant visual-latent models build on pre-norm MLLMs and reuse decoder hidden states as predicted latent inputs, even though these states occupy a substantially different norm regime from the input embeddings the model was trained to consume (Xie et al., 2025; Li et al., 2026; Team et al., 2026). This mismatch can make direct latent feedback unreliable. Motivated by this diagnosis, we propose GAP, a Granular Alignment Paradigm for visual latent modeling. GAP aligns visual latent reasoning at three levels: feature-level alignment maps decoder outputs into input-compatible visual latents through a lightweight PCA-aligned latent head; context-level alignment grounds latent targets with inspectable auxiliary visual supervision; and capacity-guided alignment assigns latent supervision selectively to examples where the base MLLM struggles. On Qwen2.5-VL 7B, the resulting model achieves the best mean aggregate perception and reasoning performance among our supervised variants. Inference-time intervention probing further suggests that generated latents provide task-relevant visual signal beyond merely adding token slots.

  • 11 authors
·
May 24

SAE Interventions are Unreliable: Post-Intervention Recovery of Suppressed Behavior

Sparse Autoencoders (SAEs) decompose residual-stream activations into interpretable features. Recent latent-space defenses increasingly rely on these decompositions, assuming that identified "unsafe" SAE features serve as actionable handles for monitoring and intervention. In this paradigm, clamping a specific harmful feature is expected to reliably prevent model misbehavior. However, we show that this success may hide a recoverable failure mode: the clamp may block one visible route to a behavior without eliminating the behavior itself. We formulate this vulnerability as post-intervention recovery, a constrained residual-space optimization problem. Starting from the post-intervention residual state, we optimize residual perturbations to recover the pre-intervention behavior while preserving the post-intervention values of the targeted SAE features. Even under a strong threat model where the intervention remains active throughout optimization and generation, recovery remains possible. To rule out that recovery simply undoes the intervention, we use encoder-orthogonal updates for single-layer interventions and the corresponding feature-map Jacobian in the cross-layer setting. Across TPP, unlearning, IOI, and refusal steering experiments, this stress test reveals recoverable behavior despite successful feature-level intervention. Especially in the safety-critical refusal-steering setting, we achieve a 95.8% recovery rate on valid samples while keeping defended-feature relative drift to 0.131, substantially below suffix-based baselines. A recovery-path attribution analysis further localizes this recovery to the SAE reconstruction residual, the component left unexplained by the SAE. These results expose a gap between feature-level control and behavioral completeness: SAE features can support causal intervention, but controlling them does not guarantee control over the underlying behavior.

Integrating Explainable Machine Learning and Mixed-Integer Optimization for Personalized Sleep Quality Intervention

Sleep quality is influenced by a complex interplay of behavioral, environmental, and psychosocial factors, yet most computational studies focus mainly on predictive risk identification rather than actionable intervention design. Although machine learning models can accurately predict subjective sleep outcomes, they rarely translate predictive insights into practical intervention strategies. To address this gap, we propose a personalized predictive-prescriptive framework that integrates interpretable machine learning with mixed-integer optimization. A supervised classifier trained on survey data predicts sleep quality, while SHAP-based feature attribution quantifies the influence of modifiable factors. These importance measures are incorporated into a mixed-integer optimization model that identifies minimal and feasible behavioral adjustments, while modelling resistance to change through a penalty mechanism. The framework achieves strong predictive performance, with a test F1-score of 0.9544 and an accuracy of 0.9366. Sensitivity and Pareto analyses reveal a clear trade-off between expected improvement and intervention intensity, with diminishing returns as additional changes are introduced. At the individual level, the model generates concise recommendations, often suggesting one or two high-impact behavioral adjustments and sometimes recommending no change when expected gains are minimal. By integrating prediction, explanation, and constrained optimization, this framework demonstrates how data-driven insights can be translated into structured and personalized decision support for sleep improvement.

  • 5 authors
·
Mar 14

Memory-Bound but Not Bandwidth-Limited: The Physical AI Inference Gap in Batch-1 LLM Decode

Physical AI systems, including robots, autonomous vehicles, embodied agents and edge copilots, often run a different inference workload from cloud LLM serving: single-stream, batch-1 autoregressive decode, where one robot, camera feed or user session waits on the next token. This workload is usually described as memory-bandwidth-bound. Each decode step streams model weights and the active KV cache, so latency should scale with peak HBM bandwidth. We show that this account is true but incomplete. We measure batch-1 decode for three 7 to 8B-class GQA transformers across four NVIDIA GPUs: H100 SXM5, A100-80GB SXM4, L40S and L4. We evaluate context lengths from 2048 to 16384, producing 44 valid cells under a controlled bf16 SDPA setup. The achieved fraction of peak HBM bandwidth falls as peak bandwidth rises. On the headline Qwen-2.5-7B ctx=2048 cell, an L4 reaches roughly 81 percent of its analytic memory floor, while an H100 reaches only 27 percent. Physical-AI decode is memory-dominated, but faster memory does not translate into proportional latency gains. We test the missing term with a CUDA Graphs A/B experiment. On H100 at ctx=2048, CUDA Graphs improves decode latency by 1.259x across N=10 fresh sessions, with a 95 percent bootstrap confidence interval of 1.253 to 1.267. On L4, the same intervention gives only 1.028x. This isolates a launch-side overhead that becomes visible on fast GPUs but remains mostly hidden on slower, bandwidth-bound GPUs. The deployment implication is that memory savings matter only when the runtime realises them. On L4, bf16 decode sits close to the memory floor, but common quantised paths do not recover the expected 4x weight-traffic reduction: bnb-nf4 reaches 59.36 ms/step and AutoAWQ+Marlin reaches 45.24 ms/step from a 62.32 ms bf16 baseline. GPTQ+ExLlamaV2, with Ada-tuned int4 kernels, reaches 17.36 ms/step.

  • 1 authors
·
May 27 2

AIMI: Leveraging Future Knowledge and Personalization in Sparse Event Forecasting for Treatment Adherence

Adherence to prescribed treatments is crucial for individuals with chronic conditions to avoid costly or adverse health outcomes. For certain patient groups, intensive lifestyle interventions are vital for enhancing medication adherence. Accurate forecasting of treatment adherence can open pathways to developing an on-demand intervention tool, enabling timely and personalized support. With the increasing popularity of smartphones and wearables, it is now easier than ever to develop and deploy smart activity monitoring systems. However, effective forecasting systems for treatment adherence based on wearable sensors are still not widely available. We close this gap by proposing Adherence Forecasting and Intervention with Machine Intelligence (AIMI). AIMI is a knowledge-guided adherence forecasting system that leverages smartphone sensors and previous medication history to estimate the likelihood of forgetting to take a prescribed medication. A user study was conducted with 27 participants who took daily medications to manage their cardiovascular diseases. We designed and developed CNN and LSTM-based forecasting models with various combinations of input features and found that LSTM models can forecast medication adherence with an accuracy of 0.932 and an F-1 score of 0.936. Moreover, through a series of ablation studies involving convolutional and recurrent neural network architectures, we demonstrate that leveraging known knowledge about future and personalized training enhances the accuracy of medication adherence forecasting. Code available: https://github.com/ab9mamun/AIMI.

  • 3 authors
·
Mar 20, 2025 2

GENIUS: Generative Fluid Intelligence Evaluation Suite

Unified Multimodal Models (UMMs) have shown remarkable progress in visual generation. Yet, existing benchmarks predominantly assess Crystallized Intelligence, which relies on recalling accumulated knowledge and learned schemas. This focus overlooks Generative Fluid Intelligence (GFI): the capacity to induce patterns, reason through constraints, and adapt to novel scenarios on the fly. To rigorously assess this capability, we introduce GENIUS (GEN Fluid Intelligence EvalUation Suite). We formalize GFI as a synthesis of three primitives. These include Inducing Implicit Patterns (e.g., inferring personalized visual preferences), Executing Ad-hoc Constraints (e.g., visualizing abstract metaphors), and Adapting to Contextual Knowledge (e.g., simulating counter-intuitive physics). Collectively, these primitives challenge models to solve problems grounded entirely in the immediate context. Our systematic evaluation of 12 representative models reveals significant performance deficits in these tasks. Crucially, our diagnostic analysis disentangles these failure modes. It demonstrates that deficits stem from limited context comprehension rather than insufficient intrinsic generative capability. To bridge this gap, we propose a training-free attention intervention strategy. Ultimately, GENIUS establishes a rigorous standard for GFI, guiding the field beyond knowledge utilization toward dynamic, general-purpose reasoning. Our dataset and code will be released at: https://github.com/arctanxarc/GENIUS{https://github.com/arctanxarc/GENIUS}.

  • 11 authors
·
Feb 11 3

Time to REFLECT: Can We Trust LLM Judges for Evidence-based Research Agents?

Deep research agents increasingly automate complex information-seeking tasks, producing evidence-grounded reports via multi-step reasoning, tool use, and synthesis. Their growing role demands scalable, reliable evaluation, positioning LLM-as-judge as a supervision paradigm for assessing factual accuracy, evidence use, and reasoning quality. Yet the reliability of these judges for deep research agents remains poorly understood, posing a critical meta-evaluation problem: before deploying LLM judges to supervise research agents, we must first evaluate the judges themselves. Existing meta-evaluations fall short in two ways: (1) reliance on coarse, subjective human-preference agreement; (2) focus on instruction-following or verifiable tasks, leaving open-ended agent executions unexplored. To address these gaps, we introduce REFLECT (REliable Fine-grained LLM judge Evaluation via Controlled inTervention), a meta-evaluation benchmark targeting fine-grained failure detection in agentic environments. REFLECT defines a detailed taxonomy of process- and outcome-level failure modes, instantiated by performing controlled and localized interventions on quality-screened agent execution traces. This yields verifiable, comprehensive, and fine-grained instances for validating the judge models. Our experiments show that current LLM judges remain unreliable: even the best-performing models achieve overall accuracies below 55% across reasoning, tool-use, and report-quality failures, with especially poor performance on evidence verification. Together, our taxonomy and findings expose systematic judge limitations, reveal tradeoffs in cost and reliability, and offer actionable guidance for building more reliable evaluation pipelines for deep research agents.

  • 8 authors
·
May 17

Causal Scaffolding for Physical Reasoning: A Benchmark for Causally-Informed Physical World Understanding in VLMs

Understanding and reasoning about the physical world is the foundation of intelligent behavior, yet state-of-the-art vision-language models (VLMs) still fail at causal physical reasoning, often producing plausible but incorrect answers. To address this gap, we introduce CausalPhys, a benchmark of over 3,000 carefully curated video- and image-based questions spanning four domains: Perception, Anticipation, Intervention, and Goal Orientation. Each question is paired with an expert-annotated causal graph capturing object-attribute-event dependencies, enabling interpretable and fine-grained evaluation of causal understanding. Building on this, we formulate a causal-graph-grounded metric that quantitatively measures how well a model's chain-of-thought reasoning aligns with the correct causal relations, moving beyond answer-only accuracy and enabling systematic diagnosis of VLMs' causal reasoning failures. Using this metric, we conduct a comprehensive analysis of leading VLMs, revealing systematic gaps in capturing causal dependencies and underscoring the need for causality-aware learning. To address these limitations, we further propose Causal Rationale-informed Fine-Tuning (CRFT), which explicitly aligns VLM reasoning with causal structures. Extensive experiments demonstrate that CRFT substantially enhances both reasoning accuracy and interpretability across multiple model backbones. By unifying dataset curation, causal evaluation, and causality-informed learning, CausalPhys establishes a strong foundation for advancing modern VLMs toward causally grounded physical reasoning.

  • 7 authors
·
Jun 3

KnowU-Bench: Towards Interactive, Proactive, and Personalized Mobile Agent Evaluation

Personalized mobile agents that infer user preferences and calibrate proactive assistance hold great promise as everyday digital assistants, yet existing benchmarks fail to capture what this requires. Prior work evaluates preference recovery from static histories or intent prediction from fixed contexts. Neither tests whether an agent can elicit missing preferences through interaction, nor whether it can decide when to intervene, seek consent, or remain silent in a live GUI environment. We introduce KnowU-Bench, an online benchmark for personalized mobile agents built on a reproducible Android emulation environment, covering 42 general GUI tasks, 86 personalized tasks, and 64 proactive tasks. Unlike prior work that treats user preferences as static context, KnowU-Bench hides the user profile from the agent and exposes only behavioral logs, forcing genuine preference inference rather than context lookup. To support multi-turn preference elicitation, it instantiates an LLM-driven user simulator grounded in structured profiles, enabling realistic clarification dialogues and proactive consent handling. Beyond personalization, KnowU-Bench provides comprehensive evaluation of the complete proactive decision chain, including grounded GUI execution, consent negotiation, and post-rejection restraint, evaluated through a hybrid protocol combining rule-based verification with LLM-as-a-Judge scoring. Our experiments reveal a striking degradation: agents that excel at explicit task execution fall below 50% under vague instructions requiring user preference inference or intervention calibration, even for frontier models like Claude Sonnet 4.6. The core bottlenecks are not GUI navigation but preference acquisition and intervention calibration, exposing a fundamental gap between competent interface operation and trustworthy personal assistance.

  • 16 authors
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Apr 8 2

When Behavioral Safety Evaluation Fails: A Representation-Level Perspective

Large Language Model (LLM) safety has often been evaluated at the behavior level, which provides limited evidence of internal robustness, as these evaluations target outputs rather than representation-level vulnerability under intervention. We formalize this discrepancy as the audit gap: the difference between behavioral safety and robustness under intervention. To study this gap, we construct dissociated models that preserve safe outward behavior while remaining vulnerable in the latent space. We introduce an intervention-based evaluation framework to test model robustness through soft interventions in parameter and latent spaces, including harmful fine-tuning and layer-wise latent perturbations. To formalize the evaluation, we propose the Latent Vulnerability Score (LVS) to measure how easily harmful behavior can be elicited by bounded latent perturbations. Using this evaluation framework, we show that behavioral safety metrics are insufficient measures of representation-level robustness across multiple safely and unsafely aligned state-of-the-art models. Notably, dissociated models show substantially elevated LVSs despite comparable refusal behavior under harmful intervention, with intermediate representations being the most sensitive to intervention. Our results suggest that behavioral safety evaluation alone provides an incomplete picture of model robustness, motivating representation-aware audits of latent vulnerability and observable behavior.

SlopCodeBench: Benchmarking How Coding Agents Degrade Over Long-Horizon Iterative Tasks

Software development is iterative, yet agentic coding benchmarks overwhelmingly evaluate single-shot solutions against complete specifications. Code can pass the test suite but become progressively harder to extend. Recent iterative benchmarks attempt to close this gap, but constrain the agent's design decisions too tightly to faithfully measure how code quality shapes future extensions. We introduce SlopCodeBench, a language-agnostic benchmark comprising 20 problems and 93 checkpoints, in which agents repeatedly extend their own prior solutions under evolving specifications that force architectural decisions without prescribing internal structure. We track two trajectory-level quality signals: verbosity, the fraction of redundant or duplicated code, and structural erosion, the share of complexity mass concentrated in high-complexity functions. No agent solves any problem end-to-end across 11 models; the highest checkpoint solve rate is 17.2%. Quality degrades steadily: erosion rises in 80% of trajectories and verbosity in 89.8%. Against 48 open-source Python repositories, agent code is 2.2x more verbose and markedly more eroded. Tracking 20 of those repositories over time shows that human code stays flat, while agent code deteriorates with each iteration. A prompt-intervention study shows that initial quality can be improved, but it does not halt degradation. These results demonstrate that pass-rate benchmarks systematically undermeasure extension robustness, and that current agents lack the design discipline iterative software development demands.

Golden Hour Divide: Trauma Care Accessibility and Resource Vulnerability in Sri Lanka

Timely intensive care dictates survival, yet emergency infrastructure remains unevenly distributed across Sri Lanka. While pre-hospital services have expanded, the transition to definitive care remains a critical bottleneck. This study evaluates national emergency resilience by quantifying the gap between clinical demand and the availability of specialized resources across all 25 districts. Using the latest national epidemiological data and terrain-aware H3 hexagonal modeling, we analyzed accessibility for seven critical conditions based on spatial gaps, clinical need-gaps, lethality, coverage, and resource availability. Based on these metrics, unsupervised K-Means clustering was applied to categorize districts into four policy-actionable archetypes: Critical Structural Exclusion, Institutional Mirages, Operational Capacity Strain, and High-Resilience Benchmarks. Our study suggests that severe service deficits exist in the Northern and Eastern provinces, where spatial gaps exceed 70%, rendering the Golden Hour operationally impossible. Notably, specialist scarcity drives systemic pressure more than bed capacity; underserved regions effectively function as institutional mirages. This study suggests that improving accessibility by 25% in high-priority clusters would reduce the national need-gap by 9.65%, providing a roadmap for the strategic redistribution of specialists to ensure healthcare equity.

  • 9 authors
·
Jul 5

IatroBench: Pre-Registered Evidence of Iatrogenic Harm from AI Safety Measures

Ask a frontier model how to taper six milligrams of alprazolam (psychiatrist retired, ten days of pills left, abrupt cessation causes seizures) and it tells her to call the psychiatrist she just explained does not exist. Change one word ("I'm a psychiatrist; a patient presents with...") and the same model, same weights, same inference pass produces a textbook Ashton Manual taper with diazepam equivalence, anticonvulsant coverage, and monitoring thresholds. The knowledge was there; the model withheld it. IatroBench measures this gap. Sixty pre-registered clinical scenarios, six frontier models, 3,600 responses, scored on two axes (commission harm, CH 0-3; omission harm, OH 0-4) through a structured-evaluation pipeline validated against physician scoring (kappa_w = 0.571, within-1 agreement 96%). The central finding is identity-contingent withholding: match the same clinical question in physician vs. layperson framing and all five testable models provide better guidance to the physician (decoupling gap +0.38, p = 0.003; binary hit rates on safety-colliding actions drop 13.1 percentage points in layperson framing, p < 0.0001, while non-colliding actions show no change). The gap is widest for the model with the heaviest safety investment (Opus, +0.65). Three failure modes separate cleanly: trained withholding (Opus), incompetence (Llama 4), and indiscriminate content filtering (GPT-5.2, whose post-generation filter strips physician responses at 9x the layperson rate because they contain denser pharmacological tokens). The standard LLM judge assigns OH = 0 to 73% of responses a physician scores OH >= 1 (kappa = 0.045); the evaluation apparatus has the same blind spot as the training apparatus. Every scenario targets someone who has already exhausted the standard referrals.

  • 1 authors
·
Apr 13

Reflecting on Motivations: How Reasons to Publish affect Research Behaviour in Astronomy

Recent research in the field of reflexive metrics have studied the emergence and consequences of evaluation gaps in science. The concept of evaluation gaps captures potential discrepancies between what researchers value about their research, in particular research quality, and what metrics measure. As a result, scientists may experience anomie and adopt innovative ways to cope. These often value quantity over quality and may even compromise research integrity. A consequence of such gaps may therefore be research misconduct and a decrease in research quality. In the language of rational choice theory, an evaluation gap persists if motivational factors arising out of the internal component of an actors situation are incongruent with those arising out of the external components. The aim of this research is therefore to study and compare autonomous and controlled motivations to become an astronomer, to do research in astronomy and to publish scientific papers. Moreover, we study how these different motivational factors affect publication pressure, the experience of organisational justice and the observation of research misconduct. In summary, we find evidence for an evaluation gap and that controlled motivational factors arising from evaluation procedures based on publication record drives up publication pressure, which, in turn, was found to increase the likelihood of perceived frequency of misbehaviour.

  • 1 authors
·
Nov 30, 2021

Train longer, generalize better: closing the generalization gap in large batch training of neural networks

Background: Deep learning models are typically trained using stochastic gradient descent or one of its variants. These methods update the weights using their gradient, estimated from a small fraction of the training data. It has been observed that when using large batch sizes there is a persistent degradation in generalization performance - known as the "generalization gap" phenomena. Identifying the origin of this gap and closing it had remained an open problem. Contributions: We examine the initial high learning rate training phase. We find that the weight distance from its initialization grows logarithmically with the number of weight updates. We therefore propose a "random walk on random landscape" statistical model which is known to exhibit similar "ultra-slow" diffusion behavior. Following this hypothesis we conducted experiments to show empirically that the "generalization gap" stems from the relatively small number of updates rather than the batch size, and can be completely eliminated by adapting the training regime used. We further investigate different techniques to train models in the large-batch regime and present a novel algorithm named "Ghost Batch Normalization" which enables significant decrease in the generalization gap without increasing the number of updates. To validate our findings we conduct several additional experiments on MNIST, CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100 and ImageNet. Finally, we reassess common practices and beliefs concerning training of deep models and suggest they may not be optimal to achieve good generalization.

  • 3 authors
·
May 24, 2017

Towards Characterizing COVID-19 Awareness on Twitter

The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has significantly altered our lifestyles as we resort to minimize the spread through preventive measures such as social distancing and quarantine. An increasingly worrying aspect is the gap between the exponential disease spread and the delay in adopting preventive measures. This gap is attributed to the lack of awareness about the disease and its preventive measures. Nowadays, social media platforms (ie., Twitter) are frequently used to create awareness about major events, including COVID-19. In this paper, we use Twitter to characterize public awareness regarding COVID-19 by analyzing the information flow in the most affected countries. Towards that, we collect more than 46K trends and 622 Million tweets from the top twenty most affected countries to examine 1) the temporal evolution of COVID-19 related trends, 2) the volume of tweets and recurring topics in those trends, and 3) the user sentiment towards preventive measures. Our results show that countries with a lower pandemic spread generated a higher volume of trends and tweets to expedite the information flow and contribute to public awareness. We also observed that in those countries, the COVID-19 related trends were generated before the sharp increase in the number of cases, indicating a preemptive attempt to notify users about the potential threat. Finally, we noticed that in countries with a lower spread, users had a positive sentiment towards COVID-19 preventive measures. Our measurements and analysis show that effective social media usage can influence public behavior, which can be leveraged to better combat future pandemics.

  • 3 authors
·
May 17, 2020

Environmental Drivers of Respiratory Disease: A District Level Analysis

Sri Lanka has experienced a decade of progressive forest degradation and rising atmospheric pollution, yet district-level respiratory admissions have paradoxically declined, pointing to the confounding role of healthcare access. This study addresses that gap by constructing an 11-year (2014-2024) panel dataset across all 25 administrative districts, integrating satellite-derived vegetation indices, fire radiative power, pollutant concentrations (particulate matter (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2)), carbon flux metrics and population-normalized respiratory admission rates. Two temporally validated XGBoost models were created for annual district-level respiratory rate (R^2 = 0.937) and monthly PM2.5 concentration (R^2 = 0.976) with generalization validated in 21 out of 25 districts (Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) <= 20%). Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) analysis established that cumulative air quality burden is the overwhelming driver of respiratory rate variance (80.1%), ahead of forest degradation (15.6%) and fire activity (4.3%). The Forest-Air-Health (FAH) Risk Index used these SHAP-derived weights to find the districts with the highest risk: Colombo (FAH = 0.802), Gampaha (0.708), and Kalutara (0.682). These findings present the inaugural evidence-based, district-level framework correlating environmental degradation with respiratory health in Sri Lanka, establishing a quantitative basis for focused public health and environmental policy.

  • 9 authors
·
Jul 4

GAPS: A Clinically Grounded, Automated Benchmark for Evaluating AI Clinicians

Current benchmarks for AI clinician systems, often based on multiple-choice exams or manual rubrics, fail to capture the depth, robustness, and safety required for real-world clinical practice. To address this, we introduce the GAPS framework, a multidimensional paradigm for evaluating Grounding (cognitive depth), Adequacy (answer completeness), Perturbation (robustness), and Safety. Critically, we developed a fully automated, guideline-anchored pipeline to construct a GAPS-aligned benchmark end-to-end, overcoming the scalability and subjectivity limitations of prior work. Our pipeline assembles an evidence neighborhood, creates dual graph and tree representations, and automatically generates questions across G-levels. Rubrics are synthesized by a DeepResearch agent that mimics GRADE-consistent, PICO-driven evidence review in a ReAct loop. Scoring is performed by an ensemble of large language model (LLM) judges. Validation confirmed our automated questions are high-quality and align with clinician judgment. Evaluating state-of-the-art models on the benchmark revealed key failure modes: performance degrades sharply with increased reasoning depth (G-axis), models struggle with answer completeness (A-axis), and they are highly vulnerable to adversarial perturbations (P-axis) as well as certain safety issues (S-axis). This automated, clinically-grounded approach provides a reproducible and scalable method for rigorously evaluating AI clinician systems and guiding their development toward safer, more reliable clinical practice.

  • 41 authors
·
Oct 15, 2025

An Analysis of Causal Effect Estimation using Outcome Invariant Data Augmentation

The technique of data augmentation (DA) is often used in machine learning for regularization purposes to better generalize under i.i.d. settings. In this work, we present a unifying framework with topics in causal inference to make a case for the use of DA beyond just the i.i.d. setting, but for generalization across interventions as well. Specifically, we argue that when the outcome generating mechanism is invariant to our choice of DA, then such augmentations can effectively be thought of as interventions on the treatment generating mechanism itself. This can potentially help to reduce bias in causal effect estimation arising from hidden confounders. In the presence of such unobserved confounding we typically make use of instrumental variables (IVs) -- sources of treatment randomization that are conditionally independent of the outcome. However, IVs may not be as readily available as DA for many applications, which is the main motivation behind this work. By appropriately regularizing IV based estimators, we introduce the concept of IV-like (IVL) regression for mitigating confounding bias and improving predictive performance across interventions even when certain IV properties are relaxed. Finally, we cast parameterized DA as an IVL regression problem and show that when used in composition can simulate a worst-case application of such DA, further improving performance on causal estimation and generalization tasks beyond what simple DA may offer. This is shown both theoretically for the population case and via simulation experiments for the finite sample case using a simple linear example. We also present real data experiments to support our case.

  • 5 authors
·
Oct 28, 2025 1

DiffIER: Optimizing Diffusion Models with Iterative Error Reduction

Diffusion models have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in generating high-quality samples and enhancing performance across diverse domains through Classifier-Free Guidance (CFG). However, the quality of generated samples is highly sensitive to the selection of the guidance weight. In this work, we identify a critical ``training-inference gap'' and we argue that it is the presence of this gap that undermines the performance of conditional generation and renders outputs highly sensitive to the guidance weight. We quantify this gap by measuring the accumulated error during the inference stage and establish a correlation between the selection of guidance weight and minimizing this gap. Furthermore, to mitigate this gap, we propose DiffIER, an optimization-based method for high-quality generation. We demonstrate that the accumulated error can be effectively reduced by an iterative error minimization at each step during inference. By introducing this novel plug-and-play optimization framework, we enable the optimization of errors at every single inference step and enhance generation quality. Empirical results demonstrate that our proposed method outperforms baseline approaches in conditional generation tasks. Furthermore, the method achieves consistent success in text-to-image generation, image super-resolution, and text-to-speech generation, underscoring its versatility and potential for broad applications in future research.

  • 3 authors
·
Aug 19, 2025

Building a Foundational Guardrail for General Agentic Systems via Synthetic Data

While LLM agents can plan multi-step tasks, intervening at the planning stage-before any action is executed-is often the safest way to prevent harm, since certain risks can lead to severe consequences once carried out. However, existing guardrails mostly operate post-execution, which is difficult to scale and leaves little room for controllable supervision at the plan level. To address this challenge, we highlight three critical gaps in current research: data gap, model gap, and evaluation gap. To close the data gap, we introduce AuraGen, a controllable engine that (i) synthesizes benign trajectories, (ii) injects category-labeled risks with calibrated difficulty, and (iii) filters outputs via an automated reward model, producing large and reliable corpora for pre-execution safety. To close the guardian model gap, we propose a foundational guardrail Safiron, combining a cross-planner adapter with a compact guardian model. The adapter unifies different input formats, while Safiron flags risky cases, assigns risk types, and generates rationales; trained in two stages with a broadly explored data recipe, Safiron achieves robust transfer across settings. To close the evaluation gap, we release Pre-Exec Bench, a realistic benchmark covering diverse tools and branching trajectories, which measures detection, fine-grained categorization, explanation, and cross-planner generalization in human-verified scenarios. Extensive experiments demonstrate consistent gains of the proposed guardrail over strong baselines on Pre-Exec Bench, and ablations further distill actionable practices, providing a practical template for safer agentic systems.

  • 14 authors
·
Oct 10, 2025 2

Coping with Information Loss and the Use of Auxiliary Sources of Data: A Report from the NISS Ingram Olkin Forum Series on Unplanned Clinical Trial Disruptions

Clinical trials disruption has always represented a non negligible part of the ending of interventional studies. While the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic has led to an impressive and unprecedented initiation of clinical research, it has also led to considerable disruption of clinical trials in other disease areas, with around 80% of non-COVID-19 trials stopped or interrupted during the pandemic. In many cases the disrupted trials will not have the planned statistical power necessary to yield interpretable results. This paper describes methods to compensate for the information loss arising from trial disruptions by incorporating additional information available from auxiliary data sources. The methods described include the use of auxiliary data on baseline and early outcome data available from the trial itself and frequentist and Bayesian approaches for the incorporation of information from external data sources. The methods are illustrated by application to the analysis of artificial data based on the Primary care pediatrics Learning Activity Nutrition (PLAN) study, a clinical trial assessing a diet and exercise intervention for overweight children, that was affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. We show how all of the methods proposed lead to an increase in precision relative to use of complete case data only.

  • 12 authors
·
Jun 22, 2022

Negotiative Alignment: Embracing Disagreement to Achieve Fairer Outcomes -- Insights from Urban Studies

Urban assessments often compress diverse needs into single scores, which can obscure minority perspectives. We present a community-centered study in Montreal (n=35; wheelchair users, seniors, LGBTQIA2+ residents, and immigrants). Participants rated 20 streets (accessibility, inclusivity, aesthetics, practicality) and ranked 7 images on 12 interview-elicited criteria. Disagreement patterns were systematic in our sample: wheelchair users diverged most on accessibility and practicality; LGBTQIA2+ participants emphasized inclusion and liveliness; seniors prioritized security. Group discussion reduced information gaps but not value conflicts; ratings conveyed intensity, while rankings forced trade-offs. We then formalize negotiative alignment, a transparent, budget-aware bargaining procedure, and pilot it with role-played stakeholder agents plus a neutral mediator. Relative to the best base design under the same public rubric, the negotiated package increased total utility (21.10 to 24.55), raised the worst-group utility (3.20 to 3.90), improved twentieth percentile satisfaction (0.86 to 1.00; min-max normalized within the scenario), and reduced inequality (Gini 0.036 to 0.025). Treating disagreement as signal and reporting worst-group outcomes alongside totals may help planners and AI practitioners surface trade-offs and preserve minority priorities while maintaining efficiency.

  • 3 authors
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Mar 16, 2025

Examining the Impact of Income Inequality and Gender on School Completion in Malaysia: A Machine Learning Approach Utilizing Malaysia's Public Sector Open Data

This study examines the relationship between income inequality, gender, and school completion rates in Malaysia using machine learning techniques. The dataset utilized is from the Malaysia's Public Sector Open Data Portal, covering the period 2016-2022. The analysis employs various machine learning techniques, including K-means clustering, ARIMA modeling, Random Forest regression, and Prophet for time series forecasting. These models are used to identify patterns, trends, and anomalies in the data, and to predict future school completion rates. Key findings reveal significant disparities in school completion rates across states, genders, and income levels. The analysis also identifies clusters of states with similar completion rates, suggesting potential regional factors influencing educational outcomes. Furthermore, time series forecasting models accurately predict future completion rates, highlighting the importance of ongoing monitoring and intervention strategies. The study concludes with recommendations for policymakers and educators to address the observed disparities and improve school completion rates in Malaysia. These recommendations include targeted interventions for specific states and demographic groups, investment in early childhood education, and addressing the impact of income inequality on educational opportunities. The findings of this study contribute to the understanding of the factors influencing school completion in Malaysia and provide valuable insights for policymakers and educators to develop effective strategies to improve educational outcomes.

  • 1 authors
·
Jan 30, 2025

Selective Machine Learning of the Average Treatment Effect with an Invalid Instrumental Variable

Instrumental variable methods have been widely used to identify causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. A key identification condition known as the exclusion restriction states that the instrument cannot have a direct effect on the outcome which is not mediated by the exposure in view. In the health and social sciences, such an assumption is often not credible. To address this concern, we consider identification conditions of the population average treatment effect with an invalid instrumental variable which does not satisfy the exclusion restriction, and derive the efficient influence function targeting the identifying functional under a nonparametric observed data model. We propose a novel multiply robust locally efficient estimator of the average treatment effect that is consistent in the union of multiple parametric nuisance models, as well as a multiply debiased machine learning estimator for which the nuisance parameters are estimated using generic machine learning methods, that effectively exploit various forms of linear or nonlinear structured sparsity in the nuisance parameter space. When one cannot be confident that any of these machine learners is consistent at sufficiently fast rates to ensure n-consistency for the average treatment effect, we introduce a new criteria for selective machine learning which leverages the multiple robustness property in order to ensure small bias. The proposed methods are illustrated through extensive simulations and a data analysis evaluating the causal effect of 401(k) participation on savings.

  • 3 authors
·
Jul 27, 2019

To Trust or to Think: Cognitive Forcing Functions Can Reduce Overreliance on AI in AI-assisted Decision-making

People supported by AI-powered decision support tools frequently overrely on the AI: they accept an AI's suggestion even when that suggestion is wrong. Adding explanations to the AI decisions does not appear to reduce the overreliance and some studies suggest that it might even increase it. Informed by the dual-process theory of cognition, we posit that people rarely engage analytically with each individual AI recommendation and explanation, and instead develop general heuristics about whether and when to follow the AI suggestions. Building on prior research on medical decision-making, we designed three cognitive forcing interventions to compel people to engage more thoughtfully with the AI-generated explanations. We conducted an experiment (N=199), in which we compared our three cognitive forcing designs to two simple explainable AI approaches and to a no-AI baseline. The results demonstrate that cognitive forcing significantly reduced overreliance compared to the simple explainable AI approaches. However, there was a trade-off: people assigned the least favorable subjective ratings to the designs that reduced the overreliance the most. To audit our work for intervention-generated inequalities, we investigated whether our interventions benefited equally people with different levels of Need for Cognition (i.e., motivation to engage in effortful mental activities). Our results show that, on average, cognitive forcing interventions benefited participants higher in Need for Cognition more. Our research suggests that human cognitive motivation moderates the effectiveness of explainable AI solutions.

  • 3 authors
·
Feb 18, 2021

Reinforcement Learning for LLM-based Multi-Agent Systems through Orchestration Traces

As large language model (LLM) agents evolve from isolated tool users into coordinated teams, reinforcement learning (RL) must optimize not only individual actions but also how work is spawned, delegated, communicated, aggregated, and stopped. This paper studies RL for LLM-based multi-agent systems through orchestration traces: temporal interaction graphs whose events include sub-agent spawning, delegation, communication, tool use, return, aggregation, and stopping decisions. Using this lens, we identify three technical axes. First, reward design spans eight families, including orchestration rewards for parallelism speedup, split correctness, and aggregation quality. Second, reward and credit signals attach to eight credit- or signal-bearing units from token to team; explicit counterfactual message-level credit remains especially sparse in our curated pool. Third, orchestration learning decomposes into five sub-decisions: when to spawn, whom to delegate to, how to communicate, how to aggregate, and when to stop. In our curated pool as of May 4, 2026, we found no explicit RL training method for the stopping decision. We connect academic methods to public industrial evidence from Kimi Agent Swarm, OpenAI Codex, and Anthropic Claude Code. The resulting scale gap is a gap between publicly reported deployment envelopes and open academic evaluation regimes, not independent verification of industrial training traces. We release the artifact at https://github.com/xxzcc/awesome-llm-mas-rl, including an 84-entry tagged paper pool, a 32-record exclusion log, scripted corpus statistics, and a minimal JSON schema for replayable orchestration traces.

  • 1 authors
·
May 3 3

"When I lost it, they dragged me out": How Care Encounters Empower Marginalized Young Adults' Aspiration and Mental Health Care-Seeking

Mental health care-seeking among marginalized young adults has received limited attention in CSCW research. Through in-depth interviews and visual elicitation methods with 18 diverse U.S. participants, our study reveals how marginalized identities shape mental health care-seeking journeys, often characterized by low aspirations and passive care-seeking influenced by lived experiences of marginalization. However, we found the transformative function of "care encounters" - serendipitous interactions with mental health resources that occur when individuals are not actively seeking support. These encounters serve as critical turning points, catalyzing shifts in aspiration and enabling more proactive care-seeking behaviors. Our analysis identifies both the infrastructural conditions that enable transformative care encounters and the aspiration breakdowns that impede care-seeking processes. This work makes conceptual contributions by supplementing traditional motivation-based care-seeking models with a reconceptualization of "care encounters" that accounts for the infrastructural and serendipitous nature of mental health access. We advance understanding of how marginalized identity uniquely influences care-seeking behaviors while providing actionable design implications for embedding technology-mediated "care encounters" into socio-technical interventions that can better support mental health care access for vulnerable populations.

  • 2 authors
·
Feb 16, 2025

Where there's a will there's a way: ChatGPT is used more for science in countries where it is prohibited

Regulating AI is a key societal challenge, but which regulation methods are effective is unclear. This study measures the effectiveness of restricting AI services geographically, focusing on ChatGPT. OpenAI restricts ChatGPT access in several countries, including China and Russia. If restrictions are effective, ChatGPT use should be minimal in these countries. We measured use with a classifier based on distinctive word usage found in early versions of ChatGPT, e.g. "delve." We trained the classifier on pre- and post-ChatGPT "polished" abstracts and found it outperformed GPTZero and ZeroGPT on validation sets, including papers with self-reported AI use. Applying the classifier to preprints from Arxiv, BioRxiv, and MedRxiv showed ChatGPT was used in about 12.6% of preprints by August 2023, with 7.7% higher usage in restricted countries. The gap appeared before China's first major legal LLM became widely available. To test the possibility that, due to high demand, use in restricted countries would have been even higher without restrictions, we compared Asian countries with high expected demand (where English is not an official language) and found that use was higher in those with restrictions. ChatGPT use was correlated with higher views and downloads, but not citations or journal placement. Overall, restricting ChatGPT geographically has proven ineffective in science and possibly other domains, likely due to widespread workarounds.

  • 3 authors
·
Jun 17, 2024

The Quiet Path from Seemingly Minor Design Errors to Workplace AI Incidents

Recent human-computer interaction (HCI) research has revealed a widespread misalignment between how developers design workplace artificial intelligence (AI) systems, and what workers actually need from them. Yet, little research has examined the effects of this gap, or how it may cause harm. We analyzed 1,524 reports of incidents in which AI systems were used to perform 171 occupational tasks across 12 industry sectors. Using an Large Language Model (LLM)-as-an-expert approach, we extracted the main traits of the AI systems involved in those incidents using an established framework of twelve traits. We then compared them with the traits that 202 workers highly familiar with those tasks would have preferred. We found that as many as 83\% of workplace incidents stem from worker-AI misalignments. In most cases, workers wanted systems that are precise, insightful, or personal, but instead received systems that are basic, simple, or general. Over the years, fast AI caused a considerable number of incidents, yet these declined, and imaginative AI, with the mass introduction of generative AI, started to cause incidents. We also compared the traits causing the incidents with the traits that 197 developers building AI systems for those tasks would have preferred. If the traits causing the incidents were the same as those designed by developers, then developers may be responsible for those incidents. We found that 74\% of task misalignments could be attributed to developers who tended to overfocus on efficiency and speed, especially for systems performing tasks in people-facing occupations such as those in the human resources sector. Our results call for design interventions that better align AI development with workers' needs, as without such corrections, workplace AI incidents are likely to persist, causing the invisible erosion of worker agency and organizational productivity.

  • 4 authors
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May 19

SANPO: A Scene Understanding, Accessibility and Human Navigation Dataset

Vision is essential for human navigation. The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that 43.3 million people were blind in 2020, and this number is projected to reach 61 million by 2050. Modern scene understanding models could empower these people by assisting them with navigation, obstacle avoidance and visual recognition capabilities. The research community needs high quality datasets for both training and evaluation to build these systems. While datasets for autonomous vehicles are abundant, there is a critical gap in datasets tailored for outdoor human navigation. This gap poses a major obstacle to the development of computer vision based Assistive Technologies. To overcome this obstacle, we present SANPO, a large-scale egocentric video dataset designed for dense prediction in outdoor human navigation environments. SANPO contains 701 stereo videos of 30+ seconds captured in diverse real-world outdoor environments across four geographic locations in the USA. Every frame has a high resolution depth map and 112K frames were annotated with temporally consistent dense video panoptic segmentation labels. The dataset also includes 1961 high-quality synthetic videos with pixel accurate depth and panoptic segmentation annotations to balance the noisy real world annotations with the high precision synthetic annotations. SANPO is already publicly available and is being used by mobile applications like Project Guideline to train mobile models that help low-vision users go running outdoors independently. To preserve anonymization during peer review, we will provide a link to our dataset upon acceptance. SANPO is available here: https://google-research-datasets.github.io/sanpo_dataset/

  • 12 authors
·
Dec 19, 2024

RISED: A Pre-Deployment Evaluation Framework for High-Stakes AI Decision-Support Systems, with Application to Healthcare

Clinical decision-support systems are expert systems whose recommendations clinicians act on directly, yet they are usually cleared on one aggregate accuracy number from a held-out test set. That number says nothing about input reliability under encoding shifts, subgroup gaps, threshold sensitivity, or operational feasibility. We present RISED, a pre-deployment evaluation framework operationalising five dimensions (Reliability, Inclusivity, Sensitivity, Equity, Deployability) through BCa bootstrap 95% confidence intervals, literature-grounded thresholds, and Holm-Bonferroni-corrected PASS / FAIL / INCONCLUSIVE verdicts; Equity is a proxy-dependence diagnostic rather than a gating test. Applied to seven cohorts spanning 35 years (n from 303 to 99,492), RISED surfaces failures invisible to AUROC: on Diabetes 130, Reliability passes by three orders of magnitude (PSS = 0.0004) while Inclusivity (AUC parity gap = 0.262) and Sensitivity (max threshold-flip rate 49.1%) fail decisively; both NHIS cohorts reproduce this. NHANES 2021-2023, with a complete feature profile, achieves INCONCLUSIVE verdicts; BRFSS 2024 produces the suite's most severe Sensitivity failure (max threshold-flip rate 64.2%) after instrument rotation removed hypertension and cholesterol. The pattern recurs on credit- and income-prediction cohorts, confirming domain-agnosticity; a multi-model check shows the failures are data-driven, not model-specific. RISED ships as an open-source Python package complementing TRIPOD+AI, FUTURE-AI, and Fairlearn with the structured numerical evidence those standards require but do not prescribe.

  • 5 authors
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May 29