Daily Papers

Implicit Neural Representations (INRs) employ neural networks to approximate discrete data as continuous functions. In the context of video data, such models can be utilized to transform the coordinates of pixel locations along with frame occurrence times (or indices) into RGB color values. Although INRs facilitate effective compression, they are unsuitable for editing purposes. One potential solution is to use a 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) based model, such as the Video Gaussian Representation (VGR), which is capable of encoding video as a multitude of 3D Gaussians and is applicable for numerous video processing operations, including editing. Nevertheless, in this case, the capacity for modification is constrained to a limited set of basic transformations. To address this issue, we introduce the Video Gaussian Splatting (VeGaS) model, which enables realistic modifications of video data. To construct VeGaS, we propose a novel family of Folded-Gaussian distributions designed to capture nonlinear dynamics in a video stream and model consecutive frames by 2D Gaussians obtained as respective conditional distributions. Our experiments demonstrate that VeGaS outperforms state-of-the-art solutions in frame reconstruction tasks and allows realistic modifications of video data. The code is available at: https://github.com/gmum/VeGaS.

We investigate stochastic combinatorial semi-bandits, where the entire joint distribution of outcomes impacts the complexity of the problem instance (unlike in the standard bandits). Typical distributions considered depend on specific parameter values, whose prior knowledge is required in theory but quite difficult to estimate in practice; an example is the commonly assumed sub-Gaussian family. We alleviate this issue by instead considering a new general family of sub-exponential distributions, which contains bounded and Gaussian ones. We prove a new lower bound on the expected regret on this family, that is parameterized by the unknown covariance matrix of outcomes, a tighter quantity than the sub-Gaussian matrix. We then construct an algorithm that uses covariance estimates, and provide a tight asymptotic analysis of the regret. Finally, we apply and extend our results to the family of sparse outcomes, which has applications in many recommender systems.

We show that taking the width and depth to infinity in a deep neural network with skip connections, when branches are scaled by 1/depth (the only nontrivial scaling), result in the same covariance structure no matter how that limit is taken. This explains why the standard infinite-width-then-depth approach provides practical insights even for networks with depth of the same order as width. We also demonstrate that the pre-activations, in this case, have Gaussian distributions which has direct applications in Bayesian deep learning. We conduct extensive simulations that show an excellent match with our theoretical findings.

This paper studies Kernel density estimation for a high-dimensional distribution rho(x). Traditional approaches have focused on the limit of large number of data points n and fixed dimension d. We analyze instead the regime where both the number n of data points y_i and their dimensionality d grow with a fixed ratio alpha=(log n)/d. Our study reveals three distinct statistical regimes for the kernel-based estimate of the density hat rho_h^{D}(x)=1{n h^d}sum_{i=1}^n Kleft(x-y_i{h}right), depending on the bandwidth h: a classical regime for large bandwidth where the Central Limit Theorem (CLT) holds, which is akin to the one found in traditional approaches. Below a certain value of the bandwidth, h_{CLT}(alpha), we find that the CLT breaks down. The statistics of hat rho_h^{D}(x) for a fixed x drawn from rho(x) is given by a heavy-tailed distribution (an alpha-stable distribution). In particular below a value h_G(alpha), we find that hat rho_h^{D}(x) is governed by extreme value statistics: only a few points in the database matter and give the dominant contribution to the density estimator. We provide a detailed analysis for high-dimensional multivariate Gaussian data. We show that the optimal bandwidth threshold based on Kullback-Leibler divergence lies in the new statistical regime identified in this paper. Our findings reveal limitations of classical approaches, show the relevance of these new statistical regimes, and offer new insights for Kernel density estimation in high-dimensional settings.

We investigate statistical properties of a likelihood approach to nonparametric estimation of a singular distribution using deep generative models. More specifically, a deep generative model is used to model high-dimensional data that are assumed to concentrate around some low-dimensional structure. Estimating the distribution supported on this low-dimensional structure, such as a low-dimensional manifold, is challenging due to its singularity with respect to the Lebesgue measure in the ambient space. In the considered model, a usual likelihood approach can fail to estimate the target distribution consistently due to the singularity. We prove that a novel and effective solution exists by perturbing the data with an instance noise, which leads to consistent estimation of the underlying distribution with desirable convergence rates. We also characterize the class of distributions that can be efficiently estimated via deep generative models. This class is sufficiently general to contain various structured distributions such as product distributions, classically smooth distributions and distributions supported on a low-dimensional manifold. Our analysis provides some insights on how deep generative models can avoid the curse of dimensionality for nonparametric distribution estimation. We conduct a thorough simulation study and real data analysis to empirically demonstrate that the proposed data perturbation technique improves the estimation performance significantly.

In this paper, we study the infinite-depth limit of finite-width residual neural networks with random Gaussian weights. With proper scaling, we show that by fixing the width and taking the depth to infinity, the pre-activations converge in distribution to a zero-drift diffusion process. Unlike the infinite-width limit where the pre-activation converge weakly to a Gaussian random variable, we show that the infinite-depth limit yields different distributions depending on the choice of the activation function. We document two cases where these distributions have closed-form (different) expressions. We further show an intriguing change of regime phenomenon of the post-activation norms when the width increases from 3 to 4. Lastly, we study the sequential limit infinite-depth-then-infinite-width and compare it with the more commonly studied infinite-width-then-infinite-depth limit.

We give the first efficient algorithm for learning halfspaces in the testable learning model recently defined by Rubinfeld and Vasilyan (2023). In this model, a learner certifies that the accuracy of its output hypothesis is near optimal whenever the training set passes an associated test, and training sets drawn from some target distribution -- e.g., the Gaussian -- must pass the test. This model is more challenging than distribution-specific agnostic or Massart noise models where the learner is allowed to fail arbitrarily if the distributional assumption does not hold. We consider the setting where the target distribution is Gaussian (or more generally any strongly log-concave distribution) in d dimensions and the noise model is either Massart or adversarial (agnostic). For Massart noise, our tester-learner runs in polynomial time and outputs a hypothesis with (information-theoretically optimal) error opt + epsilon for any strongly log-concave target distribution. For adversarial noise, our tester-learner obtains error O(opt) + epsilon in polynomial time when the target distribution is Gaussian; for strongly log-concave distributions, we obtain O(opt) + epsilon in quasipolynomial time. Prior work on testable learning ignores the labels in the training set and checks that the empirical moments of the covariates are close to the moments of the base distribution. Here we develop new tests of independent interest that make critical use of the labels and combine them with the moment-matching approach of Gollakota et al. (2023). This enables us to simulate a variant of the algorithm of Diakonikolas et al. (2020) for learning noisy halfspaces using nonconvex SGD but in the testable learning setting.

We propose a new approach for propagating stable probability distributions through neural networks. Our method is based on local linearization, which we show to be an optimal approximation in terms of total variation distance for the ReLU non-linearity. This allows propagating Gaussian and Cauchy input uncertainties through neural networks to quantify their output uncertainties. To demonstrate the utility of propagating distributions, we apply the proposed method to predicting calibrated confidence intervals and selective prediction on out-of-distribution data. The results demonstrate a broad applicability of propagating distributions and show the advantages of our method over other approaches such as moment matching.

We develop an econometric framework integrating heavy-tailed Student's t distributions with behavioral probability weighting while preserving infinite divisibility. Using 432{,}752 observations across 86 assets (2004--2024), we demonstrate Student's t specifications outperform Gaussian models in 88.4\% of cases. Bounded probability-weighting transformations preserve mathematical properties required for dynamic pricing. Gaussian models underestimate 99\% Value-at-Risk by 19.7\% versus 3.2\% for our specification. Joint estimation procedures identify tail and behavioral parameters with established asymptotic properties. Results provide robust inference for asset-pricing applications where heavy tails and behavioral distortions coexist.

Combining several (sample approximations of) distributions, which we term sub-posteriors, into a single distribution proportional to their product, is a common challenge. Occurring, for instance, in distributed 'big data' problems, or when working under multi-party privacy constraints. Many existing approaches resort to approximating the individual sub-posteriors for practical necessity, then find either an analytical approximation or sample approximation of the resulting (product-pooled) posterior. The quality of the posterior approximation for these approaches is poor when the sub-posteriors fall out-with a narrow range of distributional form, such as being approximately Gaussian. Recently, a Fusion approach has been proposed which finds an exact Monte Carlo approximation of the posterior, circumventing the drawbacks of approximate approaches. Unfortunately, existing Fusion approaches have a number of computational limitations, particularly when unifying a large number of sub-posteriors. In this paper, we generalise the theory underpinning existing Fusion approaches, and embed the resulting methodology within a recursive divide-and-conquer sequential Monte Carlo paradigm. This ultimately leads to a competitive Fusion approach, which is robust to increasing numbers of sub-posteriors.

In this work, we derive sharp non-asymptotic deviation bounds for weighted sums of Dirichlet random variables. These bounds are based on a novel integral representation of the density of a weighted Dirichlet sum. This representation allows us to obtain a Gaussian-like approximation for the sum distribution using geometry and complex analysis methods. Our results generalize similar bounds for the Beta distribution obtained in the seminal paper Alfers and Dinges [1984]. Additionally, our results can be considered a sharp non-asymptotic version of the inverse of Sanov's theorem studied by Ganesh and O'Connell [1999] in the Bayesian setting. Based on these results, we derive new deviation bounds for the Dirichlet process posterior means with application to Bayesian bootstrap. Finally, we apply our estimates to the analysis of the Multinomial Thompson Sampling (TS) algorithm in multi-armed bandits and significantly sharpen the existing regret bounds by making them independent of the size of the arms distribution support.

Distances between probability distributions that take into account the geometry of their sample space,like the Wasserstein or the Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) distances have received a lot of attention in machine learning as they can, for instance, be used to compare probability distributions with disjoint supports. In this paper, we study a class of statistical Hilbert distances that we term the Schoenberg-Rao distances, a generalization of the MMD that allows one to consider a broader class of kernels, namely the conditionally negative semi-definite kernels. In particular, we introduce a principled way to construct such kernels and derive novel closed-form distances between mixtures of Gaussian distributions. These distances, derived from the concave Rao's quadratic entropy, enjoy nice theoretical properties and possess interpretable hyperparameters which can be tuned for specific applications. Our method constitutes a practical alternative to Wasserstein distances and we illustrate its efficiency on a broad range of machine learning tasks such as density estimation, generative modeling and mixture simplification.

We study the class of location-scale or heteroscedastic noise models (LSNMs), in which the effect Y can be written as a function of the cause X and a noise source N independent of X, which may be scaled by a positive function g over the cause, i.e., Y = f(X) + g(X)N. Despite the generality of the model class, we show the causal direction is identifiable up to some pathological cases. To empirically validate these theoretical findings, we propose two estimators for LSNMs: an estimator based on (non-linear) feature maps, and one based on neural networks. Both model the conditional distribution of Y given X as a Gaussian parameterized by its natural parameters. When the feature maps are correctly specified, we prove that our estimator is jointly concave, and a consistent estimator for the cause-effect identification task. Although the the neural network does not inherit those guarantees, it can fit functions of arbitrary complexity, and reaches state-of-the-art performance across benchmarks.

In physics and engineering literature, the distribution of the excursion-above-zero time distribution (exceedance distribution) for a stationary Gaussian process has been approximated by a stationary switching process with independently distributed switching times. The approach matched the covariance of the clipped Gaussian process with the one for the stationary switching process and the distribution of the latter was used as the so-called independent interval approximation (IIA). The approach successfully assessed the persistency exponent for many physically important processes but left an unanswered question when such an approach leads to a mathematically meaningful and proper exceedance distribution. Here we address this question by proposing an alternative matching of the expected values of the clipped Slepian process and the corresponding switched process initiated at the origin. The method has allowed resolving the mathematical correctness of the matching method for a large subclass of the Gaussian processes with monotonic covariance, for which we provide a sufficient condition for the validity of the IIA. Within this class, the IIA produces a valid distribution for the excursion time and is represented in an explicit stochastic form that connects directly to the covariance of the underlying Gaussian process. We compare the excursion level distributions as well as the corresponding persistency exponents obtained through the IIA method with numerically computed exact distributions, and the simulated distribution for several important Gaussian models. We also argue that for stationary Gaussian processes with a non-monotonic covariance, the IIA fails and should not be used.

The infinitely wide neural network has been proven a useful and manageable mathematical model that enables the understanding of many phenomena appearing in deep learning. One example is the convergence of random deep networks to Gaussian processes that allows a rigorous analysis of the way the choice of activation function and network weights impacts the training dynamics. In this paper, we extend the seminal proof of Matthews et al. (2018) to a larger class of initial weight distributions (which we call PSEUDO-IID), including the established cases of IID and orthogonal weights, as well as the emerging low-rank and structured sparse settings celebrated for their computational speed-up benefits. We show that fully-connected and convolutional networks initialized with PSEUDO-IID distributions are all effectively equivalent up to their variance. Using our results, one can identify the Edge-of-Chaos for a broader class of neural networks and tune them at criticality in order to enhance their training. Moreover, they enable the posterior distribution of Bayesian Neural Networks to be tractable across these various initialization schemes.

The choice of approximate posterior distribution is one of the core problems in variational inference. Most applications of variational inference employ simple families of posterior approximations in order to allow for efficient inference, focusing on mean-field or other simple structured approximations. This restriction has a significant impact on the quality of inferences made using variational methods. We introduce a new approach for specifying flexible, arbitrarily complex and scalable approximate posterior distributions. Our approximations are distributions constructed through a normalizing flow, whereby a simple initial density is transformed into a more complex one by applying a sequence of invertible transformations until a desired level of complexity is attained. We use this view of normalizing flows to develop categories of finite and infinitesimal flows and provide a unified view of approaches for constructing rich posterior approximations. We demonstrate that the theoretical advantages of having posteriors that better match the true posterior, combined with the scalability of amortized variational approaches, provides a clear improvement in performance and applicability of variational inference.

In learned image compression, probabilistic models play an essential role in characterizing the distribution of latent variables. The Gaussian model with mean and scale parameters has been widely used for its simplicity and effectiveness. Probabilistic models with more parameters, such as the Gaussian mixture models, can fit the distribution of latent variables more precisely, but the corresponding complexity will also be higher. To balance between compression performance and complexity, we extend the Gaussian model to the generalized Gaussian model for more flexible latent distribution modeling, introducing only one additional shape parameter, beta, than the Gaussian model. To enhance the performance of the generalized Gaussian model by alleviating the train-test mismatch, we propose improved training methods, including beta-dependent lower bounds for scale parameters and gradient rectification. Our proposed generalized Gaussian model, coupled with the improved training methods, is demonstrated to outperform the Gaussian and Gaussian mixture models on a variety of learned image compression methods.

Addressing imbalanced or long-tailed data is a major challenge in visual recognition tasks due to disparities between training and testing distributions and issues with data noise. We propose the Wrapped Cauchy Distributed Angular Softmax (WCDAS), a novel softmax function that incorporates data-wise Gaussian-based kernels into the angular correlation between feature representations and classifier weights, effectively mitigating noise and sparse sampling concerns. The class-wise distribution of angular representation becomes a sum of these kernels. Our theoretical analysis reveals that the wrapped Cauchy distribution excels the Gaussian distribution in approximating mixed distributions. Additionally, WCDAS uses trainable concentration parameters to dynamically adjust the compactness and margin of each class. Empirical results confirm label-aware behavior in these parameters and demonstrate WCDAS's superiority over other state-of-the-art softmax-based methods in handling long-tailed visual recognition across multiple benchmark datasets. The code is public available.

To achieve scalable and accurate inference for latent Gaussian processes, we propose a variational approximation based on a family of Gaussian distributions whose covariance matrices have sparse inverse Cholesky (SIC) factors. We combine this variational approximation of the posterior with a similar and efficient SIC-restricted Kullback-Leibler-optimal approximation of the prior. We then focus on a particular SIC ordering and nearest-neighbor-based sparsity pattern resulting in highly accurate prior and posterior approximations. For this setting, our variational approximation can be computed via stochastic gradient descent in polylogarithmic time per iteration. We provide numerical comparisons showing that the proposed double-Kullback-Leibler-optimal Gaussian-process approximation (DKLGP) can sometimes be vastly more accurate for stationary kernels than alternative approaches such as inducing-point and mean-field approximations at similar computational complexity.

While score-based generative models (SGMs) have achieved remarkable success in enormous image generation tasks, their mathematical foundations are still limited. In this paper, we analyze the approximation and generalization of SGMs in learning a family of sub-Gaussian probability distributions. We introduce a notion of complexity for probability distributions in terms of their relative density with respect to the standard Gaussian measure. We prove that if the log-relative density can be locally approximated by a neural network whose parameters can be suitably bounded, then the distribution generated by empirical score matching approximates the target distribution in total variation with a dimension-independent rate. We illustrate our theory through examples, which include certain mixtures of Gaussians. An essential ingredient of our proof is to derive a dimension-free deep neural network approximation rate for the true score function associated with the forward process, which is interesting in its own right.

Recent works have revealed that infinitely-wide feed-forward or recurrent neural networks of any architecture correspond to Gaussian processes referred to as Neural Network Gaussian Processes (NNGPs). While these works have extended the class of neural networks converging to Gaussian processes significantly, however, there has been little focus on broadening the class of stochastic processes that such neural networks converge to. In this work, inspired by the scale mixture of Gaussian random variables, we propose the scale mixture of NNGPs for which we introduce a prior distribution on the scale of the last-layer parameters. We show that simply introducing a scale prior on the last-layer parameters can turn infinitely-wide neural networks of any architecture into a richer class of stochastic processes. With certain scale priors, we obtain heavy-tailed stochastic processes, and in the case of inverse gamma priors, we recover Student's t processes. We further analyze the distributions of the neural networks initialized with our prior setting and trained with gradient descents and obtain similar results as for NNGPs. We present a practical posterior-inference algorithm for the scale mixture of NNGPs and empirically demonstrate its usefulness on regression and classification tasks. In particular, we show that in both tasks, the heavy-tailed stochastic processes obtained from our framework are robust to out-of-distribution data.

Variational inference (VI) seeks to approximate a target distribution pi by an element of a tractable family of distributions. Of key interest in statistics and machine learning is Gaussian VI, which approximates pi by minimizing the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence to pi over the space of Gaussians. In this work, we develop the (Stochastic) Forward-Backward Gaussian Variational Inference (FB-GVI) algorithm to solve Gaussian VI. Our approach exploits the composite structure of the KL divergence, which can be written as the sum of a smooth term (the potential) and a non-smooth term (the entropy) over the Bures-Wasserstein (BW) space of Gaussians endowed with the Wasserstein distance. For our proposed algorithm, we obtain state-of-the-art convergence guarantees when pi is log-smooth and log-concave, as well as the first convergence guarantees to first-order stationary solutions when pi is only log-smooth.

Finding the mode of a high dimensional probability distribution D is a fundamental algorithmic problem in statistics and data analysis. There has been particular interest in efficient methods for solving the problem when D is represented as a mixture model or kernel density estimate, although few algorithmic results with worst-case approximation and runtime guarantees are known. In this work, we significantly generalize a result of (LeeLiMusco:2021) on mode approximation for Gaussian mixture models. We develop randomized dimensionality reduction methods for mixtures involving a broader class of kernels, including the popular logistic, sigmoid, and generalized Gaussian kernels. As in Lee et al.'s work, our dimensionality reduction results yield quasi-polynomial algorithms for mode finding with multiplicative accuracy (1-epsilon) for any epsilon > 0. Moreover, when combined with gradient descent, they yield efficient practical heuristics for the problem. In addition to our positive results, we prove a hardness result for box kernels, showing that there is no polynomial time algorithm for finding the mode of a kernel density estimate, unless P = NP. Obtaining similar hardness results for kernels used in practice (like Gaussian or logistic kernels) is an interesting future direction.

A desired closure property in Bayesian probability is that an updated posterior distribution be in the same class of distributions --- say Gaussians --- as the prior distribution. When the updating takes place via a statistical model, one calls the class of prior distributions the `conjugate priors' of the model. This paper gives (1) an abstract formulation of this notion of conjugate prior, using channels, in a graphical language, (2) a simple abstract proof that such conjugate priors yield Bayesian inversions, and (3) a logical description of conjugate priors that highlights the required closure of the priors under updating. The theory is illustrated with several standard examples, also covering multiple updating.

The modeling of probability distributions, specifically generative modeling and density estimation, has become an immensely popular subject in recent years by virtue of its outstanding performance on sophisticated data such as images and texts. Nevertheless, a theoretical understanding of its success is still incomplete. One mystery is the paradox between memorization and generalization: In theory, the model is trained to be exactly the same as the empirical distribution of the finite samples, whereas in practice, the trained model can generate new samples or estimate the likelihood of unseen samples. Likewise, the overwhelming diversity of distribution learning models calls for a unified perspective on this subject. This paper provides a mathematical framework such that all the well-known models can be derived based on simple principles. To demonstrate its efficacy, we present a survey of our results on the approximation error, training error and generalization error of these models, which can all be established based on this framework. In particular, the aforementioned paradox is resolved by proving that these models enjoy implicit regularization during training, so that the generalization error at early-stopping avoids the curse of dimensionality. Furthermore, we provide some new results on landscape analysis and the mode collapse phenomenon.

Gaussian process state-space models (GPSSMs) provide a principled and flexible approach to modeling the dynamics of a latent state, which is observed at discrete-time points via a likelihood model. However, inference in GPSSMs is computationally and statistically challenging due to the large number of latent variables in the model and the strong temporal dependencies between them. In this paper, we propose a new method for inference in Bayesian GPSSMs, which overcomes the drawbacks of previous approaches, namely over-simplified assumptions, and high computational requirements. Our method is based on free-form variational inference via stochastic gradient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo within the inducing-variable formalism. Furthermore, by exploiting our proposed variational distribution, we provide a collapsed extension of our method where the inducing variables are marginalized analytically. We also showcase results when combining our framework with particle MCMC methods. We show that, on six real-world datasets, our approach can learn transition dynamics and latent states more accurately than competing methods.

Region-of-Interest (ROI)-based image compression allocates bits unevenly according to the semantic importance of different regions. Such differentiated coding typically induces a sharp-peaked and heavy-tailed distribution. This distribution characteristic mathematically necessitates a probability model with adaptable shape parameters for accurate description. However, existing methods commonly use a Gaussian model to fit this distribution, resulting in a loss of coding performance. To systematically analyze the impact of this distribution on ROI coding, we develop a unified rate-distortion optimization theoretical paradigm. Building on this paradigm, we propose a novel Generalized Gaussian Model (GGM) to achieve flexible modeling of the latent variables distribution. To support stable optimization of GGM, we introduce effective differentiable functions and further propose a dynamic lower bound to alleviate train-test mismatch. Moreover, finite differences are introduced to solve the gradient computation after GGM fits the distribution. Experiments on COCO2017 demonstrate that our method achieves state-of-the-art in both ROI reconstruction and downstream tasks (e.g., Segmentation, Object Detection). Furthermore, compared to classical probability models, our GGM provides a more precise fit to feature distributions and achieves superior coding performance. The project page is at https://github.com/hukai-tju/ROIGGM.

There has been a recent surge of interest in modeling neural networks (NNs) as Gaussian processes. In the limit of a NN of infinite width the NN becomes equivalent to a Gaussian process. Here we demonstrate that for an ensemble of large, finite, fully connected networks with a single hidden layer the distribution of outputs at initialization is well described by a Gaussian perturbed by the fourth Hermite polynomial for weights drawn from a symmetric distribution. We show that the scale of the perturbation is inversely proportional to the number of units in the NN and that higher order terms decay more rapidly, thereby recovering the Edgeworth expansion. We conclude by observing that understanding how this perturbation changes under training would reveal the regimes in which the Gaussian process framework is valid to model NN behavior.

We apply the Weibull distribution -- a two-parameter family from extreme-value theory -- as a diagnostic framework for element-wise weight magnitude distributions in transformers. At initialization, i.i.d. Gaussian weights give |w| ~ HalfNormal, yielding k ~ 1.20 via middle-80% probability-plot fit (the protocol used throughout this work). This anchor makes k a principled, architecture-independent measuring stick for training dynamics; fitting each weight matrix independently at every layer at every checkpoint enables per-component, per-layer, and per-step diagnostics that aggregate statistics cannot resolve. Applying this framework to 12 model entries spanning 7 architectural families (Pythia, OLMo-1/2, LLaMA-3, Mistral, Qwen2.5/3) reveals three findings. First, FFN modules and the attention output projection W_o -- the Transmission Class -- fall in a narrow k band: median terminal k in [1.186, 1.204] across 12 entries (cross-family CV = 0.51%), shared across SwiGLU/GeLU activations, Pre-LN/QK-Norm placements, and 70M-14B sizes. Second, the attention input projections W_q, W_k -- the Selection Class -- depart from the Weibull family, with severity shaped by storage: separately-stored Q/K (OLMo-1, OLMo-2) yields k in [0.76, 0.99] (deep); GQA models yield k in [1.10, 1.16] (mild); Pythia's merged W_qkv occupies a transitional zone tracking training budget T/tau monotonically. Third, lambda grows substantially during training and scales with sqrt(eta/lambda_wd) within the Pythia family (Pearson r = 0.94, three Transmission kinds), directionally consistent with Fan et al. (2025). The two parameters carry independent information: k labels the functional class, lambda labels training progress. We release npm-weibull-py v0.4 (Python library) and DATABASE_v9_1 at https://github.com/tiexinding/NPM-Weibull-public .

Given time series data, how can we answer questions like "what will happen in the future?" and "how did we get here?" These sorts of probabilistic inference questions are challenging when observations are high-dimensional. In this paper, we show how these questions can have compact, closed form solutions in terms of learned representations. The key idea is to apply a variant of contrastive learning to time series data. Prior work already shows that the representations learned by contrastive learning encode a probability ratio. By extending prior work to show that the marginal distribution over representations is Gaussian, we can then prove that joint distribution of representations is also Gaussian. Taken together, these results show that representations learned via temporal contrastive learning follow a Gauss-Markov chain, a graphical model where inference (e.g., prediction, planning) over representations corresponds to inverting a low-dimensional matrix. In one special case, inferring intermediate representations will be equivalent to interpolating between the learned representations. We validate our theory using numerical simulations on tasks up to 46-dimensions.

Variational inference using the reparameterization trick has enabled large-scale approximate Bayesian inference in complex probabilistic models, leveraging stochastic optimization to sidestep intractable expectations. The reparameterization trick is applicable when we can simulate a random variable by applying a differentiable deterministic function on an auxiliary random variable whose distribution is fixed. For many distributions of interest (such as the gamma or Dirichlet), simulation of random variables relies on acceptance-rejection sampling. The discontinuity introduced by the accept-reject step means that standard reparameterization tricks are not applicable. We propose a new method that lets us leverage reparameterization gradients even when variables are outputs of a acceptance-rejection sampling algorithm. Our approach enables reparameterization on a larger class of variational distributions. In several studies of real and synthetic data, we show that the variance of the estimator of the gradient is significantly lower than other state-of-the-art methods. This leads to faster convergence of stochastic gradient variational inference.

We develop a unified mathematical framework for certified Top-k attention truncation that quantifies approximation error at both the distribution and output levels. For a single attention distribution P and its Top-k truncation hat P, we show that the total-variation distance coincides with the discarded softmax tail mass and satisfies TV(P,hat P)=1-e^{-KL(hat PVert P)}, yielding sharp Top-k-specific bounds in place of generic inequalities. From this we derive non-asymptotic deterministic bounds -- from a single boundary gap through multi-gap and blockwise variants -- that control TV(P,hat P) using only the ordered logits. Using an exact head-tail decomposition, we prove that the output error factorizes as |Attn(q,K,V)-Attn_k(q,K,V)|_2=τ|μ_{tail}-μ_{head}|_2 with τ=TV(P,hat P), yielding a new head-tail diameter bound |Attn(q,K,V)-Attn_k(q,K,V)|_2leτ,diam_{H,T} and refinements linking the error to Var_P(V). Under an i.i.d. Gaussian score model s_isimmathcal N(μ,σ^2) we derive closed-form tail masses and an asymptotic rule for the minimal k_varepsilon ensuring TV(P,hat P)levarepsilon, namely k_varepsilon/napproxΦ_c(σ+Φ^{-1}(varepsilon)). Experiments on bert-base-uncased and synthetic logits confirm the predicted scaling of k_varepsilon/n and show that certified Top-k can reduce scored keys by 2-4times on average while meeting the prescribed total-variation budget.

In this note we explore the distribution of vacuum expectation values of the superpotential W_0 in explicit Type IIB flux compactifications. We show that the distribution can be approximated, universally across geometries, by a two-dimensional Gaussian with a model dependent standard deviation. We identify this behaviour in 20 Calabi-Yau orientifold compactifications with between two and five complex structure moduli by constructing a total of O(10^7) flux vacua. We observe a characteristic scaling behaviour of the width σ of our distributions with respect to the D3-charge contributions N_{flux} from fluxes which can be approximated by σsim N_{text{flux}}. This W_0 distribution implies that locating small values of |W_0| as a preferred regime associated with classes of string theory solutions typically featuring hierarchies, simplifies to the basic statement of finding small Euclidean norms of normally distributed values. We do also identify small modifications to this Gaussian behaviour in our samples which might be seen as indications for the breakdown of the continuous flux approximation commonly used in the context of statistical analyses of the flux landscape.

Gaussian processes (GP) are a well studied Bayesian approach for the optimization of black-box functions. Despite their effectiveness in simple problems, GP-based algorithms hardly scale to high-dimensional functions, as their per-iteration time and space cost is at least quadratic in the number of dimensions d and iterations t. Given a set of A alternatives to choose from, the overall runtime O(t^3A) is prohibitive. In this paper we introduce BKB (budgeted kernelized bandit), a new approximate GP algorithm for optimization under bandit feedback that achieves near-optimal regret (and hence near-optimal convergence rate) with near-constant per-iteration complexity and remarkably no assumption on the input space or covariance of the GP. We combine a kernelized linear bandit algorithm (GP-UCB) with randomized matrix sketching based on leverage score sampling, and we prove that randomly sampling inducing points based on their posterior variance gives an accurate low-rank approximation of the GP, preserving variance estimates and confidence intervals. As a consequence, BKB does not suffer from variance starvation, an important problem faced by many previous sparse GP approximations. Moreover, we show that our procedure selects at most O(d_{eff}) points, where d_{eff} is the effective dimension of the explored space, which is typically much smaller than both d and t. This greatly reduces the dimensionality of the problem, thus leading to a O(TAd_{eff}^2) runtime and O(A d_{eff}) space complexity.

We study the task of agnostically learning halfspaces under the Gaussian distribution. Specifically, given labeled examples (x,y) from an unknown distribution on R^n times { pm 1}, whose marginal distribution on x is the standard Gaussian and the labels y can be arbitrary, the goal is to output a hypothesis with 0-1 loss OPT+epsilon, where OPT is the 0-1 loss of the best-fitting halfspace. We prove a near-optimal computational hardness result for this task, under the widely believed sub-exponential time hardness of the Learning with Errors (LWE) problem. Prior hardness results are either qualitatively suboptimal or apply to restricted families of algorithms. Our techniques extend to yield near-optimal lower bounds for related problems, including ReLU regression.

We consider the problem of approximating a function from L^2 by an element of a given m-dimensional space V_m, associated with some feature map varphi, using evaluations of the function at random points x_1,dots,x_n. After recalling some results on optimal weighted least-squares using independent and identically distributed points, we consider weighted least-squares using projection determinantal point processes (DPP) or volume sampling. These distributions introduce dependence between the points that promotes diversity in the selected features varphi(x_i). We first provide a generalized version of volume-rescaled sampling yielding quasi-optimality results in expectation with a number of samples n = O(mlog(m)), that means that the expected L^2 error is bounded by a constant times the best approximation error in L^2. Also, further assuming that the function is in some normed vector space H continuously embedded in L^2, we further prove that the approximation is almost surely bounded by the best approximation error measured in the H-norm. This includes the cases of functions from L^infty or reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. Finally, we present an alternative strategy consisting in using independent repetitions of projection DPP (or volume sampling), yielding similar error bounds as with i.i.d. or volume sampling, but in practice with a much lower number of samples. Numerical experiments illustrate the performance of the different strategies.

A model involving Gaussian processes (GPs) is introduced to simultaneously handle multi-task learning, clustering, and prediction for multiple functional data. This procedure acts as a model-based clustering method for functional data as well as a learning step for subsequent predictions for new tasks. The model is instantiated as a mixture of multi-task GPs with common mean processes. A variational EM algorithm is derived for dealing with the optimisation of the hyper-parameters along with the hyper-posteriors' estimation of latent variables and processes. We establish explicit formulas for integrating the mean processes and the latent clustering variables within a predictive distribution, accounting for uncertainty on both aspects. This distribution is defined as a mixture of cluster-specific GP predictions, which enhances the performances when dealing with group-structured data. The model handles irregular grid of observations and offers different hypotheses on the covariance structure for sharing additional information across tasks. The performances on both clustering and prediction tasks are assessed through various simulated scenarios and real datasets. The overall algorithm, called MagmaClust, is publicly available as an R package.

While Bayesian inference provides a principled framework for reasoning under uncertainty, its widespread adoption is limited by the intractability of exact posterior computation, necessitating the use of approximate inference. However, existing methods are often computationally expensive, or demand costly retraining when priors change, limiting their utility, particularly in sequential inference problems such as real-time sensor fusion. To address these challenges, we introduce the Distribution Transformer -- a novel architecture that can learn arbitrary distribution-to-distribution mappings. Our method can be trained to map a prior to the corresponding posterior, conditioned on some dataset -- thus performing approximate Bayesian inference. Our novel architecture represents a prior distribution as a (universally-approximating) Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM), and transforms it into a GMM representation of the posterior. The components of the GMM attend to each other via self-attention, and to the datapoints via cross-attention. We demonstrate that Distribution Transformers both maintain flexibility to vary the prior, and significantly reduces computation times-from minutes to milliseconds-while achieving log-likelihood performance on par with or superior to existing approximate inference methods across tasks such as sequential inference, quantum system parameter inference, and Gaussian Process predictive posterior inference with hyperpriors.

We show via a combination of mathematical arguments and empirical evidence that data distributions sampled from diffusion models satisfy a Concentration of Measure Property saying that any Lipschitz 1-dimensional projection of a random vector is not too far from its mean with high probability. This implies that such models are quite restrictive and gives an explanation for a fact previously observed in the literature that conventional diffusion models cannot capture "heavy-tailed" data (i.e. data x for which the norm |x|_2 does not possess a sub-Gaussian tail) well. We then proceed to train a generalized linear model using stochastic gradient descent (SGD) on the diffusion-generated data for a multiclass classification task and observe empirically that a Gaussian universality result holds for the test error. In other words, the test error depends only on the first and second order statistics of the diffusion-generated data in the linear setting. Results of such forms are desirable because they allow one to assume the data itself is Gaussian for analyzing performance of the trained classifier. Finally, we note that current approaches to proving universality do not apply to this case as the covariance matrices of the data tend to have vanishing minimum singular values for the diffusion-generated data, while the current proofs assume that this is not the case (see Subsection 3.4 for more details). This leaves extending previous mathematical universality results as an intriguing open question.

This paper studies the scale and redshift variation of density and velocity distributions in self-gravitating collisionless dark matter flow by a halo-based non-projection approach. All particles are divided into halo and out-of-halo particles for redshift variation of distributions. Without projecting particle fields onto a structured grid, the scale variation is analyzed by identifying all particle pairs on different scales r. We demonstrate that: i) Delaunay tessellation can be used to reconstruct the density field. The density correlation, spectrum, and dispersion functions were obtained, modeled, and compared with the N-body simulation; ii) the velocity distributions are symmetric on both small and large scales and are non-symmetric with a negative skewness on intermediate scales due to the inverse energy cascade at a constant rate varepsilon_u; iii) On small scales, the even order moments of pairwise velocity Delta u_L follow a two-thirds law (-varepsilon_ur)^{2/3}, while the odd order moments follow a linear scaling langle(Delta u_L)^{2n+1}rangle=(2n+1)langle(Delta u_L)^{2n}ranglelangleDelta u_Lrangler; iv) The scale variation of the velocity distributions was studied for longitudinal velocities u_L or u_L^{'}, pairwise velocity (velocity difference) Delta u_L=u_L^{'}-u_L and velocity sum Sigma u_L=u^{'}_L+u_L. Fully developed velocity fields are never Gaussian on any scale, despite that they can initially be Gaussian; v) On small scales, u_L and Sigma u_L can be modeled by a X distribution to maximize the system entropy; vi) On large scales, Delta u_L and Sigma u_L can be modeled by a logistic or a X distribution; vii) the redshift variation of the velocity distributions follows the evolution of the X distribution involving a shape parameter alpha(z) decreasing with time.

We study the problem of predicting numeric labels that are constrained to the integers or to a subrange of the integers. For example, the number of up-votes on social media posts, or the number of bicycles available at a public rental station. While it is possible to model these as continuous values, and to apply traditional regression, this approach changes the underlying distribution on the labels from discrete to continuous. Discrete distributions have certain benefits, which leads us to the question whether such integer labels can be modeled directly by a discrete distribution, whose parameters are predicted from the features of a given instance. Moreover, we focus on the use case of output distributions of neural networks, which adds the requirement that the parameters of the distribution be continuous so that backpropagation and gradient descent may be used to learn the weights of the network. We investigate several options for such distributions, some existing and some novel, and test them on a range of tasks, including tabular learning, sequential prediction and image generation. We find that overall the best performance comes from two distributions: Bitwise, which represents the target integer in bits and places a Bernoulli distribution on each, and a discrete analogue of the Laplace distribution, which uses a distribution with exponentially decaying tails around a continuous mean.

The Beta kernel estimator offers a theoretically superior alternative to the Gaussian kernel for unit interval data, eliminating boundary bias without requiring reflection or transformation. However, its adoption remains limited by the lack of a reliable bandwidth selector; practitioners currently rely on iterative optimization methods that are computationally expensive and prone to instability. We derive the ``Beta Reference Rule,'' a fast, closed-form bandwidth selector based on the unweighted Asymptotic Mean Integrated Squared Error (AMISE) of a beta reference distribution. To address boundary integrability issues, we introduce a principled heuristic for U-shaped and J-shaped distributions. By employing a method-of-moments approximation, we reduce the bandwidth selection complexity from iterative optimization to O(1). Extensive Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that our rule matches the accuracy of numerical optimization while delivering a speedup of over 35,000 times. Real-world validation on socioeconomic data shows that it avoids the ``vanishing boundary'' and ``shoulder'' artifacts common to Gaussian-based methods. We provide a comprehensive, open-source Python package to facilitate the immediate adoption of the Beta kernel as a drop-in replacement for standard density estimation tools.

According to the generalized Polya theorem, the Gaussian distribution on the real line is characterized by the property of equidistribution of a monomial and a linear form of independent identically distributed random variables. We give a complete description of a-adic solenoids for which an analog of this theorem is true. The proof of the main theorem is reduced to solving some functional equation in the class of continuous positive definite functions on the character group of an a-adic solenoid

Learning distribution families over R^d is a fundamental problem in unsupervised learning and statistics. A central question in this setting is whether a given family of distributions possesses sufficient structure to be (at least) information-theoretically learnable and, if so, to characterize its sample complexity. In 2018, Ashtiani et al. reframed sample compressibility, originally due to Littlestone and Warmuth (1986), as a structural property of distribution classes, proving that it guarantees PAC-learnability. This discovery subsequently enabled a series of recent advancements in deriving nearly tight sample complexity bounds for various high-dimensional open problems. It has been further conjectured that the converse also holds: every learnable class admits a tight sample compression scheme. In this work, we establish that sample compressible families remain learnable even from perturbed samples, subject to a set of necessary and sufficient conditions. We analyze two models of data perturbation: (i) an additive independent noise model, and (ii) an adversarial corruption model, where an adversary manipulates a limited subset of the samples unknown to the learner. Our results are general and rely on as minimal assumptions as possible. We develop a perturbation-quantization framework that interfaces naturally with the compression scheme and leads to sample complexity bounds that scale gracefully with the noise level and corruption budget. As concrete applications, we establish new sample complexity bounds for learning finite mixtures of high-dimensional uniform distributions under both noise and adversarial perturbations, as well as for learning Gaussian mixture models from adversarially corrupted samples, resolving two open problems in the literature.

Tangles were originally introduced as a concept to formalize regions of high connectivity in graphs. In recent years, they have also been discovered as a link between structural graph theory and data science: when interpreting similarity in data sets as connectivity between points, finding clusters in the data essentially amounts to finding tangles in the underlying graphs. This paper further explores the potential of tangles in data sets as a means for a formal study of clusters. Real-world data often follow a normal distribution. Accounting for this, we develop a quantitative theory of tangles in data sets drawn from Gaussian mixtures. To this end, we equip the data with a graph structure that models similarity between the points and allows us to apply tangle theory to the data. We provide explicit conditions under which tangles associated with the marginal Gaussian distributions exist asymptotically almost surely. This can be considered as a sufficient formal criterion for the separabability of clusters in the data.

Forecasting on sparse multivariate time series (MTS) aims to model the predictors of future values of time series given their incomplete past, which is important for many emerging applications. However, most existing methods process MTS's individually, and do not leverage the dynamic distributions underlying the MTS's, leading to sub-optimal results when the sparsity is high. To address this challenge, we propose a novel generative model, which tracks the transition of latent clusters, instead of isolated feature representations, to achieve robust modeling. It is characterized by a newly designed dynamic Gaussian mixture distribution, which captures the dynamics of clustering structures, and is used for emitting timeseries. The generative model is parameterized by neural networks. A structured inference network is also designed for enabling inductive analysis. A gating mechanism is further introduced to dynamically tune the Gaussian mixture distributions. Extensive experimental results on a variety of real-life datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

Using a fully Bayesian approach, Gaussian Process regression is extended to include marginalisation over the kernel choice and kernel hyperparameters. In addition, Bayesian model comparison via the evidence enables direct kernel comparison. The calculation of the joint posterior was implemented with a transdimensional sampler which simultaneously samples over the discrete kernel choice and their hyperparameters by embedding these in a higher-dimensional space, from which samples are taken using nested sampling. Kernel recovery and mean function inference were explored on synthetic data from exoplanet transit light curve simulations. Subsequently, the method was extended to marginalisation over mean functions and noise models and applied to the inference of the present-day Hubble parameter, H_0, from real measurements of the Hubble parameter as a function of redshift, derived from the cosmologically model-independent cosmic chronometer and ΛCDM-dependent baryon acoustic oscillation observations. The inferred H_0 values from the cosmic chronometers, baryon acoustic oscillations and combined datasets are H_0= 66 pm 6, km,s^{-1},Mpc^{-1}, H_0= 67 pm 10, km,s^{-1},Mpc^{-1} and H_0= 69 pm 6, km,s^{-1},Mpc^{-1}, respectively. The kernel posterior of the cosmic chronometers dataset prefers a non-stationary linear kernel. Finally, the datasets are shown to be not in tension with ln R=12.17pm 0.02.

In recent years, 3D Gaussian splatting has emerged as a powerful technique for 3D reconstruction and generation, known for its fast and high-quality rendering capabilities. To address these shortcomings, this paper introduces a novel diffusion-based framework, GVGEN, designed to efficiently generate 3D Gaussian representations from text input. We propose two innovative techniques:(1) Structured Volumetric Representation. We first arrange disorganized 3D Gaussian points as a structured form GaussianVolume. This transformation allows the capture of intricate texture details within a volume composed of a fixed number of Gaussians. To better optimize the representation of these details, we propose a unique pruning and densifying method named the Candidate Pool Strategy, enhancing detail fidelity through selective optimization. (2) Coarse-to-fine Generation Pipeline. To simplify the generation of GaussianVolume and empower the model to generate instances with detailed 3D geometry, we propose a coarse-to-fine pipeline. It initially constructs a basic geometric structure, followed by the prediction of complete Gaussian attributes. Our framework, GVGEN, demonstrates superior performance in qualitative and quantitative assessments compared to existing 3D generation methods. Simultaneously, it maintains a fast generation speed (sim7 seconds), effectively striking a balance between quality and efficiency.

This paper studies a machine learning regression problem as a multivariate approximation problem using the framework of the theory of random functions. An ab initio derivation of a regression method is proposed, starting from postulates of indifference. It is shown that if a probability measure on an infinite-dimensional function space possesses natural symmetries (invariance under translation, rotation, scaling, and Gaussianity), then the entire solution scheme, including the kernel form, the type of regularization, and the noise parameterization, follows analytically from these postulates. The resulting kernel coincides with a generalized polyharmonic spline; however, unlike existing approaches, it is not chosen empirically but arises as a consequence of the indifference principle. This result provides a theoretical foundation for a broad class of smoothing and interpolation methods, demonstrating their optimality in the absence of a priori information.

We study the problem of estimating the distribution of the return of a policy using an offline dataset that is not generated from the policy, i.e., distributional offline policy evaluation (OPE). We propose an algorithm called Fitted Likelihood Estimation (FLE), which conducts a sequence of Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and has the flexibility of integrating any state-of-the-art probabilistic generative models as long as it can be trained via MLE. FLE can be used for both finite-horizon and infinite-horizon discounted settings where rewards can be multi-dimensional vectors. Our theoretical results show that for both finite-horizon and infinite-horizon discounted settings, FLE can learn distributions that are close to the ground truth under total variation distance and Wasserstein distance, respectively. Our theoretical results hold under the conditions that the offline data covers the test policy's traces and that the supervised learning MLE procedures succeed. Experimentally, we demonstrate the performance of FLE with two generative models, Gaussian mixture models and diffusion models. For the multi-dimensional reward setting, FLE with diffusion models is capable of estimating the complicated distribution of the return of a test policy.

We design efficient approximation algorithms for maximizing the expectation of the supremum of families of Gaussian random variables. In particular, let OPT:=max_{σ_1,cdots,σ_n}Eleft[sum_{j=1}^{m}max_{iin S_j} X_iright], where X_i are Gaussian, S_jsubset[n] and sum_iσ_i^2=1, then our theoretical results include: - We characterize the optimal variance allocation -- it concentrates on a small subset of variables as |S_j| increases, - A polynomial time approximation scheme (PTAS) for computing OPT when m=1, and - An O(log n) approximation algorithm for computing OPT for general m>1. Such expectation maximization problems occur in diverse applications, ranging from utility maximization in auctions markets to learning mixture models in quantitative genetics.

Recent successful generative models are trained by fitting a neural network to an a-priori defined tractable probability density path taking noise to training examples. In this paper we investigate the space of Gaussian probability paths, which includes diffusion paths as an instance, and look for an optimal member in some useful sense. In particular, minimizing the Kinetic Energy (KE) of a path is known to make particles' trajectories simple, hence easier to sample, and empirically improve performance in terms of likelihood of unseen data and sample generation quality. We investigate Kinetic Optimal (KO) Gaussian paths and offer the following observations: (i) We show the KE takes a simplified form on the space of Gaussian paths, where the data is incorporated only through a single, one dimensional scalar function, called the data separation function. (ii) We characterize the KO solutions with a one dimensional ODE. (iii) We approximate data-dependent KO paths by approximating the data separation function and minimizing the KE. (iv) We prove that the data separation function converges to 1 in the general case of arbitrary normalized dataset consisting of n samples in d dimension as n/drightarrow 0. A consequence of this result is that the Conditional Optimal Transport (Cond-OT) path becomes kinetic optimal as n/drightarrow 0. We further support this theory with empirical experiments on ImageNet.

We propose a credit risk model for portfolios composed of green and brown loans, extending the ASRF framework via a two-factor copula structure. Systematic risk is modeled using potentially skewed distributions, allowing for asymmetric creditworthiness effects, while idiosyncratic risk remains Gaussian. Under a non-uniform exposure setting, we establish convergence in quadratic mean of the portfolio loss to a limit reflecting the distinct characteristics of the two loan segments. Numerical results confirm the theoretical findings and illustrate how value-at-risk is affected by portfolio granularity, default probabilities, factor loadings, and skewness. Our model accommodates differential sensitivity to systematic shocks and offers a tractable basis for further developments in credit risk modeling, including granularity adjustments, CDO pricing, and empirical analysis of green loan portfolios.

We study the relation between the total variation (TV) and Hellinger distances between two Gaussian location mixtures. Our first result establishes a general upper bound: for any two mixing distributions supported on a compact set, the Hellinger distance between the two mixtures is controlled by the TV distance raised to a power 1-o(1), where the o(1) term is of order 1/loglog(1/TV). We also construct two sequences of mixing distributions that demonstrate the sharpness of this bound. Taken together, our results resolve an open problem raised in Jia et al. (2023) and thus lead to an entropic characterization of learning Gaussian mixtures in total variation. Our inequality also yields optimal robust estimation of Gaussian mixtures in Hellinger distance, which has a direct implication for bounding the minimax regret of empirical Bayes under Huber contamination.

Certain tasks in high-dimensional statistics become easier when the underlying distribution satisfies a local-to-global property called approximate tensorization of entropy (ATE). For example, the Glauber dynamics Markov chain of an ATE distribution mixes fast and can produce approximate samples in a small amount of time, since such a distribution satisfies a modified log-Sobolev inequality. Moreover, identity-testing for an ATE distribution requires few samples if the tester is given coordinate conditional access to the unknown distribution, as shown by Blanca, Chen, Štefankovič, and Vigoda (COLT 2023). A natural class of distributions that do not satisfy ATE consists of mixtures of (few) distributions that do satisfy ATE. We study the complexity of identity-testing and sampling for these distributions. Our main results are the following: 1. We show fast mixing of Glauber dynamics from a data-based initialization, with optimal sample complexity, for mixtures of distributions satisfying modified log-Sobolev inequalities. This extends work of Huang, Koehler, Lee, Mohanty, Rajaraman, Vuong, and Wu (STOC 2025, COLT 2025) for mixtures of distributions satisfying Poincaré inequalities. 2. Answering an open question posed by Blanca et al., we give efficient identity-testers for mixtures of ATE distributions in the coordinate-conditional sampling access model. We also give some simplifications and improvements to the original algorithm of Blanca et al.

Molecules are frequently represented as graphs, but the underlying 3D molecular geometry (the locations of the atoms) ultimately determines most molecular properties. However, most molecules are not static and at room temperature adopt a wide variety of geometries or conformations. The resulting distribution on geometries p(x) is known as the Boltzmann distribution, and many molecular properties are expectations computed under this distribution. Generating accurate samples from the Boltzmann distribution is therefore essential for computing these expectations accurately. Traditional sampling-based methods are computationally expensive, and most recent machine learning-based methods have focused on identifying modes in this distribution rather than generating true samples. Generating such samples requires capturing conformational variability, and it has been widely recognized that the majority of conformational variability in molecules arises from rotatable bonds. In this work, we present VonMisesNet, a new graph neural network that captures conformational variability via a variational approximation of rotatable bond torsion angles as a mixture of von Mises distributions. We demonstrate that VonMisesNet can generate conformations for arbitrary molecules in a way that is both physically accurate with respect to the Boltzmann distribution and orders of magnitude faster than existing sampling methods.

We introduce ensembles within score-based sampling methods to develop gradient-free approximate sampling techniques that leverage the collective dynamics of particle ensembles to compute approximate reverse diffusion drifts. We introduce the underlying methodology, emphasizing its relationship with generative diffusion models and the previously introduced F\"ollmer sampler. We demonstrate the efficacy of ensemble strategies through various examples, ranging from low- to medium-dimensionality sampling problems, including multi-modal and highly non-Gaussian probability distributions, and provide comparisons to traditional methods like NUTS. Our findings highlight the potential of ensemble strategies for modeling complex probability distributions in situations where gradients are unavailable. Finally, we showcase its application in the context of Bayesian inversion problems within the geophysical sciences.

Conventional uncertainty-aware temporal difference (TD) learning often assumes a zero-mean Gaussian distribution for TD errors, leading to inaccurate error representations and compromised uncertainty estimation. We introduce a novel framework for generalized Gaussian error modeling in deep reinforcement learning to enhance the flexibility of error distribution modeling by incorporating additional higher-order moment, particularly kurtosis, thereby improving the estimation and mitigation of data-dependent aleatoric uncertainty. We examine the influence of the shape parameter of the generalized Gaussian distribution (GGD) on aleatoric uncertainty and provide a closed-form expression that demonstrates an inverse relationship between uncertainty and the shape parameter. Additionally, we propose a theoretically grounded weighting scheme to address epistemic uncertainty by fully leveraging the GGD. We refine batch inverse variance weighting with bias reduction and kurtosis considerations, enhancing robustness. Experiments with policy gradient algorithms demonstrate significant performance gains.

Score-based diffusion models generate samples from an unknown target distribution using a time-reversed diffusion process. While such models represent state-of-the-art approaches in industrial applications such as artificial image generation, it has recently been noted that their performance can be further improved by considering injection noise with heavy tailed characteristics. Here, I present a generalization of generative diffusion processes to a wide class of non-Gaussian noise processes. I consider forward processes driven by standard Gaussian noise with super-imposed Poisson jumps representing a finite activity Levy process. The generative process is shown to be governed by a generalized score function that depends on the jump amplitude distribution and can be estimated by minimizing a simple MSE loss as in conventional Gaussian models. Both probability flow ODE and SDE formulations are derived using basic technical effort. A detailed implementation for a pure jump process with Laplace distributed amplitudes yields a generalized score function in closed analytical form and is shown to outperform the equivalent Gaussian model in specific parameter regimes.

There is a growing gap between the impressive results of deep image generative models and classical algorithms that offer theoretical guarantees. The former suffer from mode collapse or memorization issues, limiting their application to scientific data. The latter require restrictive assumptions such as log-concavity to escape the curse of dimensionality. We partially bridge this gap by introducing conditionally strongly log-concave (CSLC) models, which factorize the data distribution into a product of conditional probability distributions that are strongly log-concave. This factorization is obtained with orthogonal projectors adapted to the data distribution. It leads to efficient parameter estimation and sampling algorithms, with theoretical guarantees, although the data distribution is not globally log-concave. We show that several challenging multiscale processes are conditionally log-concave using wavelet packet orthogonal projectors. Numerical results are shown for physical fields such as the varphi^4 model and weak lensing convergence maps with higher resolution than in previous works.

The Bayesian treatment of neural networks dictates that a prior distribution is specified over their weight and bias parameters. This poses a challenge because modern neural networks are characterized by a large number of parameters, and the choice of these priors has an uncontrolled effect on the induced functional prior, which is the distribution of the functions obtained by sampling the parameters from their prior distribution. We argue that this is a hugely limiting aspect of Bayesian deep learning, and this work tackles this limitation in a practical and effective way. Our proposal is to reason in terms of functional priors, which are easier to elicit, and to "tune" the priors of neural network parameters in a way that they reflect such functional priors. Gaussian processes offer a rigorous framework to define prior distributions over functions, and we propose a novel and robust framework to match their prior with the functional prior of neural networks based on the minimization of their Wasserstein distance. We provide vast experimental evidence that coupling these priors with scalable Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling offers systematically large performance improvements over alternative choices of priors and state-of-the-art approximate Bayesian deep learning approaches. We consider this work a considerable step in the direction of making the long-standing challenge of carrying out a fully Bayesian treatment of neural networks, including convolutional neural networks, a concrete possibility.

Machine learning based solvers have garnered much attention in physical simulation and scientific computing, with a prominent example, physics-informed neural networks (PINNs). However, PINNs often struggle to solve high-frequency and multi-scale PDEs, which can be due to spectral bias during neural network training. To address this problem, we resort to the Gaussian process (GP) framework. To flexibly capture the dominant frequencies, we model the power spectrum of the PDE solution with a student t mixture or Gaussian mixture. We apply the inverse Fourier transform to obtain the covariance function (by Wiener-Khinchin theorem). The covariance derived from the Gaussian mixture spectrum corresponds to the known spectral mixture kernel. Next, we estimate the mixture weights in the log domain, which we show is equivalent to placing a Jeffreys prior. It automatically induces sparsity, prunes excessive frequencies, and adjusts the remaining toward the ground truth. Third, to enable efficient and scalable computation on massive collocation points, which are critical to capture high frequencies, we place the collocation points on a grid, and multiply our covariance function at each input dimension. We use the GP conditional mean to predict the solution and its derivatives so as to fit the boundary condition and the equation itself. As a result, we can derive a Kronecker product structure in the covariance matrix. We use Kronecker product properties and multilinear algebra to promote computational efficiency and scalability, without low-rank approximations. We show the advantage of our method in systematic experiments. The code is released at https://github.com/xuangu-fang/Gaussian-Process-Slover-for-High-Freq-PDE.

Popular approaches for quantifying predictive uncertainty in deep neural networks often involve distributions over weights or multiple models, for instance via Markov Chain sampling, ensembling, or Monte Carlo dropout. These techniques usually incur overhead by having to train multiple model instances or do not produce very diverse predictions. This comprehensive and extensive survey aims to familiarize the reader with an alternative class of models based on the concept of Evidential Deep Learning: For unfamiliar data, they aim to admit "what they don't know", and fall back onto a prior belief. Furthermore, they allow uncertainty estimation in a single model and forward pass by parameterizing distributions over distributions. This survey recapitulates existing works, focusing on the implementation in a classification setting, before surveying the application of the same paradigm to regression. We also reflect on the strengths and weaknesses compared to other existing methods and provide the most fundamental derivations using a unified notation to aid future research.

For a parametric model of distributions, the closest distribution in the model to the true distribution located outside the model is considered. Measuring the closeness between two distributions with the Kullback-Leibler (K-L) divergence, the closest distribution is called the "information projection." The estimation risk of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is defined as the expectation of K-L divergence between the information projection and the predictive distribution with plugged-in MLE. Here, the asymptotic expansion of the risk is derived up to n^{-2}-order, and the sufficient condition on the risk for the Bayes error rate between the true distribution and the information projection to be lower than a specified value is investigated. Combining these results, the "p-n criterion" is proposed, which determines whether the MLE is sufficiently close to the information projection for the given model and sample. In particular, the criterion for an exponential family model is relatively simple and can be used for a complex model with no explicit form of normalizing constant. This criterion can constitute a solution to the sample size or model acceptance problem. Use of the p-n criteria is demonstrated for two practical datasets. The relationship between the results and information criteria is also studied.

In this paper, we find a sample complexity bound for learning a simplex from noisy samples. Assume a dataset of size n is given which includes i.i.d. samples drawn from a uniform distribution over an unknown simplex in R^K, where samples are assumed to be corrupted by a multi-variate additive Gaussian noise of an arbitrary magnitude. We prove the existence of an algorithm that with high probability outputs a simplex having a ell_2 distance of at most varepsilon from the true simplex (for any varepsilon>0). Also, we theoretically show that in order to achieve this bound, it is sufficient to have ngeleft(K^2/varepsilon^2right)e^{Omegaleft(K/SNR^2right)} samples, where SNR stands for the signal-to-noise ratio. This result solves an important open problem and shows as long as SNRgeOmegaleft(K^{1/2}right), the sample complexity of the noisy regime has the same order to that of the noiseless case. Our proofs are a combination of the so-called sample compression technique in ashtiani2018nearly, mathematical tools from high-dimensional geometry, and Fourier analysis. In particular, we have proposed a general Fourier-based technique for recovery of a more general class of distribution families from additive Gaussian noise, which can be further used in a variety of other related problems.

We present a novel stochastic variational Gaussian process (GP) inference method, based on a posterior over a learnable set of weighted pseudo input-output points (coresets). Instead of a free-form variational family, the proposed coreset-based, variational tempered family for GPs (CVTGP) is defined in terms of the GP prior and the data-likelihood; hence, accommodating the modeling inductive biases. We derive CVTGP's lower bound for the log-marginal likelihood via marginalization of the proposed posterior over latent GP coreset variables, and show it is amenable to stochastic optimization. CVTGP reduces the learnable parameter size to O(M), enjoys numerical stability, and maintains O(M^3) time- and O(M^2) space-complexity, by leveraging a coreset-based tempered posterior that, in turn, provides sparse and explainable representations of the data. Results on simulated and real-world regression problems with Gaussian observation noise validate that CVTGP provides better evidence lower-bound estimates and predictive root mean squared error than alternative stochastic GP inference methods.

Bayesian optimisation is a popular approach for optimising expensive black-box functions. The next location to be evaluated is selected via maximising an acquisition function that balances exploitation and exploration. Gaussian processes, the surrogate models of choice in Bayesian optimisation, are often used with a constant prior mean function equal to the arithmetic mean of the observed function values. We show that the rate of convergence can depend sensitively on the choice of mean function. We empirically investigate 8 mean functions (constant functions equal to the arithmetic mean, minimum, median and maximum of the observed function evaluations, linear, quadratic polynomials, random forests and RBF networks), using 10 synthetic test problems and two real-world problems, and using the Expected Improvement and Upper Confidence Bound acquisition functions. We find that for design dimensions ge5 using a constant mean function equal to the worst observed quality value is consistently the best choice on the synthetic problems considered. We argue that this worst-observed-quality function promotes exploitation leading to more rapid convergence. However, for the real-world tasks the more complex mean functions capable of modelling the fitness landscape may be effective, although there is no clearly optimum choice.

3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) has demonstrated remarkable effectiveness in novel view synthesis (NVS). However, 3DGS tends to overfit when trained with sparse views, limiting its generalization to novel viewpoints. In this paper, we address this overfitting issue by introducing Self-Ensembling Gaussian Splatting (SE-GS). We achieve self-ensembling by incorporating an uncertainty-aware perturbation strategy during training. A Delta-model and a Sigma-model are jointly trained on the available images. The Delta-model is dynamically perturbed based on rendering uncertainty across training steps, generating diverse perturbed models with negligible computational overhead. Discrepancies between the Sigma-model and these perturbed models are minimized throughout training, forming a robust ensemble of 3DGS models. This ensemble, represented by the Sigma-model, is then used to generate novel-view images during inference. Experimental results on the LLFF, Mip-NeRF360, DTU, and MVImgNet datasets demonstrate that our approach enhances NVS quality under few-shot training conditions, outperforming existing state-of-the-art methods. The code is released at: https://sailor-z.github.io/projects/SEGS.html.

A collection of robust Mahalanobis distances for multivariate outlier detection is proposed, based on the notion of shrinkage. Robust intensity and scaling factors are optimally estimated to define the shrinkage. Some properties are investigated, such as affine equivariance and breakdown value. The performance of the proposal is illustrated through the comparison to other techniques from the literature, in a simulation study and with a real dataset. The behavior when the underlying distribution is heavy-tailed or skewed, shows the appropriateness of the method when we deviate from the common assumption of normality. The resulting high correct detection rates and low false detection rates in the vast majority of cases, as well as the significantly smaller computation time shows the advantages of our proposal.

Learning in Gaussian Process models occurs through the adaptation of hyperparameters of the mean and the covariance function. The classical approach entails maximizing the marginal likelihood yielding fixed point estimates (an approach called Type II maximum likelihood or ML-II). An alternative learning procedure is to infer the posterior over hyperparameters in a hierarchical specification of GPs we call Fully Bayesian Gaussian Process Regression (GPR). This work considers two approximation schemes for the intractable hyperparameter posterior: 1) Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) yielding a sampling-based approximation and 2) Variational Inference (VI) where the posterior over hyperparameters is approximated by a factorized Gaussian (mean-field) or a full-rank Gaussian accounting for correlations between hyperparameters. We analyze the predictive performance for fully Bayesian GPR on a range of benchmark data sets.

The kernel thinning (KT) algorithm of Dwivedi and Mackey (2021) compresses a probability distribution more effectively than independent sampling by targeting a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) and leveraging a less smooth square-root kernel. Here we provide four improvements. First, we show that KT applied directly to the target RKHS yields tighter, dimension-free guarantees for any kernel, any distribution, and any fixed function in the RKHS. Second, we show that, for analytic kernels like Gaussian, inverse multiquadric, and sinc, target KT admits maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) guarantees comparable to or better than those of square-root KT without making explicit use of a square-root kernel. Third, we prove that KT with a fractional power kernel yields better-than-Monte-Carlo MMD guarantees for non-smooth kernels, like Laplace and Mat\'ern, that do not have square-roots. Fourth, we establish that KT applied to a sum of the target and power kernels (a procedure we call KT+) simultaneously inherits the improved MMD guarantees of power KT and the tighter individual function guarantees of target KT. In our experiments with target KT and KT+, we witness significant improvements in integration error even in 100 dimensions and when compressing challenging differential equation posteriors.

This paper revisits the problem of computing empirical cumulative distribution functions (ECDF) efficiently on large, multivariate datasets. Computing an ECDF at one evaluation point requires O(N) operations on a dataset composed of N data points. Therefore, a direct evaluation of ECDFs at N evaluation points requires a quadratic O(N^2) operations, which is prohibitive for large-scale problems. Two fast and exact methods are proposed and compared. The first one is based on fast summation in lexicographical order, with a O(N{log}N) complexity and requires the evaluation points to lie on a regular grid. The second one is based on the divide-and-conquer principle, with a O(Nlog(N)^{(d-1){vee}1}) complexity and requires the evaluation points to coincide with the input points. The two fast algorithms are described and detailed in the general d-dimensional case, and numerical experiments validate their speed and accuracy. Secondly, the paper establishes a direct connection between cumulative distribution functions and kernel density estimation (KDE) for a large class of kernels. This connection paves the way for fast exact algorithms for multivariate kernel density estimation and kernel regression. Numerical tests with the Laplacian kernel validate the speed and accuracy of the proposed algorithms. A broad range of large-scale multivariate density estimation, cumulative distribution estimation, survival function estimation and regression problems can benefit from the proposed numerical methods.

Despite their many desirable properties, Gaussian processes (GPs) are often compared unfavorably to deep neural networks (NNs) for lacking the ability to learn representations. Recent efforts to bridge the gap between GPs and deep NNs have yielded a new class of inter-domain variational GPs in which the inducing variables correspond to hidden units of a feedforward NN. In this work, we examine some practical issues associated with this approach and propose an extension that leverages the orthogonal decomposition of GPs to mitigate these limitations. In particular, we introduce spherical inter-domain features to construct more flexible data-dependent basis functions for both the principal and orthogonal components of the GP approximation and show that incorporating NN activation features under this framework not only alleviates these shortcomings but is more scalable than alternative strategies. Experiments on multiple benchmark datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.

We study estimation and clustering in Gaussian mixture models under variance misspecification. Observations are generated with true variance σ^2, while the component means are estimated using a likelihood with variance τ^2, yielding a family of mismatched likelihood functions parameterized by the ratio ρ=τ/σ. We show that the interplay between ρ and the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) induces a sharp phase diagram. Under correct specification (ρ=1), maximum likelihood recovers the true means, independently of the SNR. However, once the model is misspecified, two different regimes emerge. Under under-smoothing (ρ<1), the estimated Gaussian means are displaced from the truth, and in low SNR this discrepancy grows as the SNR decreases: for every fixed ρ<1, the squared error scales as SNR^{-1}. Under over-smoothing (ρ>1), the fitted likelihood blurs the cluster separation, causing distinct component means to collapse towards the overall mixture center once ρ^2 exceeds a threshold of the form 1 + λ,SNR, where λ depends on the geometry of the true means. We further show that the hard assignment objective arises as the limit τto 0 of the same mismatched likelihood family, and derive corresponding low- and high-SNR results for hard-assignment mean estimation and latent-label recovery. Furthermore, in low SNR, Bayes-optimal clustering is close to random guessing, and the hard-assignment target remains far from the true means. These results show that in low-SNR applications, even mild variance misspecification or hard-assignment procedures can induce substantial bias, whereas in high SNR these effects are largely absent.

We introduce a family of random matrices where correlations between matrix elements are induced via interaction-derived Boltzmann factors. Varying these yields access to different ensembles. We find a universal scaling behavior of the finite-size statistics characterized by a heavy-tailed eigenvalue distribution whose extremes are governed by the Fréchet extreme value distribution for the case corresponding to a ferromagnetic Ising transition. The introduction of a finite density of nonlocal interactions restores standard random-matrix behavior. Suitably rescaled average extremes, playing a physical role as an order parameter, can thus discriminate aspects of the interaction structure; they also yield further nonuniversal information. In particular, the link between maximum eigenvalues and order parameters offers a potential route to resolving long-standing problems in statistical physics, such as deriving the exact magnetization scaling function in the two-dimensional Ising model at criticality.

Belief Propagation (BP) is a powerful algorithm for distributed inference in probabilistic graphical models, however it quickly becomes infeasible for practical compute and memory budgets. Many efficient, non-parametric forms of BP have been developed, but the most popular is Gaussian Belief Propagation (GBP), a variant that assumes all distributions are locally Gaussian. GBP is widely used due to its efficiency and empirically strong performance in applications like computer vision or sensor networks - even when modelling non-Gaussian problems. In this paper, we seek to provide a theoretical guarantee for when Gaussian approximations are valid in highly non-Gaussian, sparsely-connected factor graphs performing BP (common in spatial AI). We leverage the Central Limit Theorem (CLT) to prove mathematically that variables' beliefs under BP converge to a Gaussian distribution in complex, loopy factor graphs obeying our 4 key assumptions. We then confirm experimentally that variable beliefs become increasingly Gaussian after just a few BP iterations in a stereo depth estimation task.

Collections of probability distributions arise in a variety of applications ranging from user activity pattern analysis to brain connectomics. In practice these distributions can be defined over diverse domain types including finite intervals, circles, cylinders, spheres, other manifolds, and graphs. This paper introduces an approach for detecting differences between two collections of distributions over such general domains. To this end, we propose the intrinsic slicing construction that yields a novel class of Wasserstein distances on manifolds and graphs. These distances are Hilbert embeddable, allowing us to reduce the distribution collection comparison problem to a more familiar mean testing problem in a Hilbert space. We provide two testing procedures one based on resampling and another on combining p-values from coordinate-wise tests. Our experiments in various synthetic and real data settings show that the resulting tests are powerful and the p-values are well-calibrated.

We study the problem of learning mixtures of Gaussians with censored data. Statistical learning with censored data is a classical problem, with numerous practical applications, however, finite-sample guarantees for even simple latent variable models such as Gaussian mixtures are missing. Formally, we are given censored data from a mixture of univariate Gaussians $sum_{i=1}^k w_i N(mu_i,sigma^2), i.e. the sample is observed only if it lies inside a set S. The goal is to learn the weights w_i and the means \mu_i. We propose an algorithm that takes only 1{\varepsilon^{O(k)}} samples to estimate the weights w_i and the means \mu_i within \varepsilon$ error.

Approximate inference in Gaussian process (GP) models with non-conjugate likelihoods gets entangled with the learning of the model hyperparameters. We improve hyperparameter learning in GP models and focus on the interplay between variational inference (VI) and the learning target. While VI's lower bound to the marginal likelihood is a suitable objective for inferring the approximate posterior, we show that a direct approximation of the marginal likelihood as in Expectation Propagation (EP) is a better learning objective for hyperparameter optimization. We design a hybrid training procedure to bring the best of both worlds: it leverages conjugate-computation VI for inference and uses an EP-like marginal likelihood approximation for hyperparameter learning. We compare VI, EP, Laplace approximation, and our proposed training procedure and empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposal across a wide range of data sets.

The study conducted by Shumailov et al. (2024) demonstrates that repeatedly training a generative model on synthetic data leads to model collapse. This finding has generated considerable interest and debate, particularly given that current models have nearly exhausted the available data. In this work, we investigate the effects of fitting a distribution (through Kernel Density Estimation, or KDE) or a model to the data, followed by repeated sampling from it. Our objective is to develop a theoretical understanding of the phenomenon observed by Shumailov et al. (2024). Our results indicate that the outcomes reported are a statistical phenomenon and may be unavoidable.

We study the Stochastic Boolean Function Certification (SBFC) problem, where we are given n Bernoulli random variables {X_e: e in U} on a ground set U of n elements with joint distribution p, a Boolean function f: 2^U to {0, 1}, and an (unknown) scenario S = {e in U: X_e = 1} of active elements sampled from p. We seek to probe the elements one-at-a-time to reveal if they are active until we can certify f(S) = 1, while minimizing the expected number of probes. Unlike most previous results that assume independence, we study correlated distributions p and give approximation algorithms for several classes of functions f. When f(S) is the indicator function for whether S is the spanning set of a given matroid, our problem reduces to finding a basis of active elements of a matroid by probing elements. We give a non-adaptive O(log n)-approximation algorithm for arbitrary distributions p, and show that this is tight up to constants unless P = NP, even for partition matroids. For uniform matroids, we give constant factor 4.642-approximation ([BBFT20]) that can be further improved to a 2-approximation if additionally the random variables are negatively correlated for the case of 1-uniform matroid. We also give an adaptive O(log k)-approximation algorithm for SBFC for k-uniform matroids for the Graph Probing problem, where we seek to probe the edges of a graph one-at-a-time until we find k active edges. The underlying distribution on edges arises from (hidden) independent vertex random variables, with an edge being active if at least one of its endpoints is active. This significantly improves over the information-theoretic lower bound on Ω(poly(n)) ([JGM19]) for adaptive algorithms for k-uniform matroids with arbitrary distributions.

Appropriately designing the proposal kernel of particle filters is an issue of significant importance, since a bad choice may lead to deterioration of the particle sample and, consequently, waste of computational power. In this paper we introduce a novel algorithm adaptively approximating the so-called optimal proposal kernel by a mixture of integrated curved exponential distributions with logistic weights. This family of distributions, referred to as mixtures of experts, is broad enough to be used in the presence of multi-modality or strongly skewed distributions. The mixtures are fitted, via online-EM methods, to the optimal kernel through minimisation of the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the auxiliary target and instrumental distributions of the particle filter. At each iteration of the particle filter, the algorithm is required to solve only a single optimisation problem for the whole particle sample, yielding an algorithm with only linear complexity. In addition, we illustrate in a simulation study how the method can be successfully applied to optimal filtering in nonlinear state-space models.

Gaussian processes (GP) are one of the most successful frameworks to model uncertainty. However, GP optimization (e.g., GP-UCB) suffers from major scalability issues. Experimental time grows linearly with the number of evaluations, unless candidates are selected in batches (e.g., using GP-BUCB) and evaluated in parallel. Furthermore, computational cost is often prohibitive since algorithms such as GP-BUCB require a time at least quadratic in the number of dimensions and iterations to select each batch. In this paper, we introduce BBKB (Batch Budgeted Kernel Bandits), the first no-regret GP optimization algorithm that provably runs in near-linear time and selects candidates in batches. This is obtained with a new guarantee for the tracking of the posterior variances that allows BBKB to choose increasingly larger batches, improving over GP-BUCB. Moreover, we show that the same bound can be used to adaptively delay costly updates to the sparse GP approximation used by BBKB, achieving a near-constant per-step amortized cost. These findings are then confirmed in several experiments, where BBKB is much faster than state-of-the-art methods.

Capturing aleatoric uncertainty is a critical part of many machine learning systems. In deep learning, a common approach to this end is to train a neural network to estimate the parameters of a heteroscedastic Gaussian distribution by maximizing the logarithm of the likelihood function under the observed data. In this work, we examine this approach and identify potential hazards associated with the use of log-likelihood in conjunction with gradient-based optimizers. First, we present a synthetic example illustrating how this approach can lead to very poor but stable parameter estimates. Second, we identify the culprit to be the log-likelihood loss, along with certain conditions that exacerbate the issue. Third, we present an alternative formulation, termed β-NLL, in which each data point's contribution to the loss is weighted by the β-exponentiated variance estimate. We show that using an appropriate β largely mitigates the issue in our illustrative example. Fourth, we evaluate this approach on a range of domains and tasks and show that it achieves considerable improvements and performs more robustly concerning hyperparameters, both in predictive RMSE and log-likelihood criteria.

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) have been an important framework in the study of uncertainty quantification. Deterministic variational inference, one of the inference methods, utilizes moment propagation to compute the predictive distributions and objective functions. Unfortunately, deriving the moments requires computationally expensive Taylor expansion in nonlinear functions, such as a rectified linear unit (ReLU) or a sigmoid function. Therefore, a new nonlinear function that realizes faster moment propagation than conventional functions is required. In this paper, we propose a novel nonlinear function named moment propagating-Gaussian error linear unit (MP-GELU) that enables the fast derivation of first and second moments in BNNs. MP-GELU enables the analytical computation of moments by applying nonlinearity to the input statistics, thereby reducing the computationally expensive calculations required for nonlinear functions. In empirical experiments on regression tasks, we observed that the proposed MP-GELU provides higher prediction accuracy and better quality of uncertainty with faster execution than those of ReLU-based BNNs.

In this paper we develop a dynamic form of Bayesian optimization for machine learning models with the goal of rapidly finding good hyperparameter settings. Our method uses the partial information gained during the training of a machine learning model in order to decide whether to pause training and start a new model, or resume the training of a previously-considered model. We specifically tailor our method to machine learning problems by developing a novel positive-definite covariance kernel to capture a variety of training curves. Furthermore, we develop a Gaussian process prior that scales gracefully with additional temporal observations. Finally, we provide an information-theoretic framework to automate the decision process. Experiments on several common machine learning models show that our approach is extremely effective in practice.

The successes of modern deep machine learning methods are founded on their ability to transform inputs across multiple layers to build good high-level representations. It is therefore critical to understand this process of representation learning. However, standard theoretical approaches (formally NNGPs) involving infinite width limits eliminate representation learning. We therefore develop a new infinite width limit, the Bayesian representation learning limit, that exhibits representation learning mirroring that in finite-width models, yet at the same time, retains some of the simplicity of standard infinite-width limits. In particular, we show that Deep Gaussian processes (DGPs) in the Bayesian representation learning limit have exactly multivariate Gaussian posteriors, and the posterior covariances can be obtained by optimizing an interpretable objective combining a log-likelihood to improve performance with a series of KL-divergences which keep the posteriors close to the prior. We confirm these results experimentally in wide but finite DGPs. Next, we introduce the possibility of using this limit and objective as a flexible, deep generalisation of kernel methods, that we call deep kernel machines (DKMs). Like most naive kernel methods, DKMs scale cubically in the number of datapoints. We therefore use methods from the Gaussian process inducing point literature to develop a sparse DKM that scales linearly in the number of datapoints. Finally, we extend these approaches to NNs (which have non-Gaussian posteriors) in the Appendices.

In this article, we study the consistency of the template estimation with the Fr\'echet mean in quotient spaces. The Fr\'echet mean in quotient spaces is often used when the observations are deformed or transformed by a group action. We show that in most cases this estimator is actually inconsistent. We exhibit a sufficient condition for this inconsistency, which amounts to the folding of the distribution of the noisy template when it is projected to the quotient space. This condition appears to be fulfilled as soon as the support of the noise is large enough. To quantify this inconsistency we provide lower and upper bounds of the bias as a function of the variability (the noise level). This shows that the consistency bias cannot be neglected when the variability increases.

Bayesian optimization (BO) has established itself as a leading strategy for efficiently optimizing expensive-to-evaluate functions. Existing BO methods mostly rely on Gaussian process (GP) surrogate models and are not applicable to (doubly-stochastic) Gaussian Cox processes, where the observation process is modulated by a latent intensity function modeled as a GP. In this paper, we propose a novel maximum a posteriori inference of Gaussian Cox processes. It leverages the Laplace approximation and change of kernel technique to transform the problem into a new reproducing kernel Hilbert space, where it becomes more tractable computationally. It enables us to obtain both a functional posterior of the latent intensity function and the covariance of the posterior, thus extending existing works that often focus on specific link functions or estimating the posterior mean. Using the result, we propose a BO framework based on the Gaussian Cox process model and further develop a Nystr\"om approximation for efficient computation. Extensive evaluations on various synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate significant improvement over state-of-the-art inference solutions for Gaussian Cox processes, as well as effective BO with a wide range of acquisition functions designed through the underlying Gaussian Cox process model.

Given a stationary state-space model that relates a sequence of hidden states and corresponding measurements or observations, Bayesian filtering provides a principled statistical framework for inferring the posterior distribution of the current state given all measurements up to the present time. For example, the Apollo lunar module implemented a Kalman filter to infer its location from a sequence of earth-based radar measurements and land safely on the moon. To perform Bayesian filtering, we require a measurement model that describes the conditional distribution of each observation given state. The Kalman filter takes this measurement model to be linear, Gaussian. Here we show how a nonlinear, Gaussian approximation to the distribution of state given observation can be used in conjunction with Bayes' rule to build a nonlinear, non-Gaussian measurement model. The resulting approach, called the Discriminative Kalman Filter (DKF), retains fast closed-form updates for the posterior. We argue there are many cases where the distribution of state given measurement is better-approximated as Gaussian, especially when the dimensionality of measurements far exceeds that of states and the Bernstein-von Mises theorem applies. Online neural decoding for brain-computer interfaces provides a motivating example, where filtering incorporates increasingly detailed measurements of neural activity to provide users control over external devices. Within the BrainGate2 clinical trial, the DKF successfully enabled three volunteers with quadriplegia to control an on-screen cursor in real-time using mental imagery alone. Participant "T9" used the DKF to type out messages on a tablet PC.

We propose two approaches to extend the notion of knowledge distillation to Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) and Gaussian Process Classification (GPC); data-centric and distribution-centric. The data-centric approach resembles most current distillation techniques for machine learning, and refits a model on deterministic predictions from the teacher, while the distribution-centric approach, re-uses the full probabilistic posterior for the next iteration. By analyzing the properties of these approaches, we show that the data-centric approach for GPR closely relates to known results for self-distillation of kernel ridge regression and that the distribution-centric approach for GPR corresponds to ordinary GPR with a very particular choice of hyperparameters. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the distribution-centric approach for GPC approximately corresponds to data duplication and a particular scaling of the covariance and that the data-centric approach for GPC requires redefining the model from a Binomial likelihood to a continuous Bernoulli likelihood to be well-specified. To the best of our knowledge, our proposed approaches are the first to formulate knowledge distillation specifically for Gaussian Process models.

Bird's-eye view (BEV) perception has gained significant attention because it provides a unified representation to fuse multiple view images and enables a wide range of down-stream autonomous driving tasks, such as forecasting and planning. Recent state-of-the-art models utilize projection-based methods which formulate BEV perception as query learning to bypass explicit depth estimation. While we observe promising advancements in this paradigm, they still fall short of real-world applications because of the lack of uncertainty modeling and expensive computational requirement. In this work, we introduce GaussianLSS, a novel uncertainty-aware BEV perception framework that revisits unprojection-based methods, specifically the Lift-Splat-Shoot (LSS) paradigm, and enhances them with depth un-certainty modeling. GaussianLSS represents spatial dispersion by learning a soft depth mean and computing the variance of the depth distribution, which implicitly captures object extents. We then transform the depth distribution into 3D Gaussians and rasterize them to construct uncertainty-aware BEV features. We evaluate GaussianLSS on the nuScenes dataset, achieving state-of-the-art performance compared to unprojection-based methods. In particular, it provides significant advantages in speed, running 2.5x faster, and in memory efficiency, using 0.3x less memory compared to projection-based methods, while achieving competitive performance with only a 0.4% IoU difference.

A variety of infinitely wide neural architectures (e.g., dense NNs, CNNs, and transformers) induce Gaussian process (GP) priors over their outputs. These relationships provide both an accurate characterization of the prior predictive distribution and enable the use of GP machinery to improve the uncertainty quantification of deep neural networks. In this work, we extend this connection to neural operators (NOs), a class of models designed to learn mappings between function spaces. Specifically, we show conditions for when arbitrary-depth NOs with Gaussian-distributed convolution kernels converge to function-valued GPs. Based on this result, we show how to compute the covariance functions of these NO-GPs for two NO parametrizations, including the popular Fourier neural operator (FNO). With this, we compute the posteriors of these GPs in regression scenarios, including PDE solution operators. This work is an important step towards uncovering the inductive biases of current FNO architectures and opens a path to incorporate novel inductive biases for use in kernel-based operator learning methods.

Bayesian optimization is a highly efficient approach to optimizing objective functions which are expensive to query. These objectives are typically represented by Gaussian process (GP) surrogate models which are easy to optimize and support exact inference. While standard GP surrogates have been well-established in Bayesian optimization, Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) have recently become practical function approximators, with many benefits over standard GPs such as the ability to naturally handle non-stationarity and learn representations for high-dimensional data. In this paper, we study BNNs as alternatives to standard GP surrogates for optimization. We consider a variety of approximate inference procedures for finite-width BNNs, including high-quality Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, low-cost stochastic MCMC, and heuristics such as deep ensembles. We also consider infinite-width BNNs and partially stochastic models such as deep kernel learning. We evaluate this collection of surrogate models on diverse problems with varying dimensionality, number of objectives, non-stationarity, and discrete and continuous inputs. We find: (i) the ranking of methods is highly problem dependent, suggesting the need for tailored inductive biases; (ii) HMC is the most successful approximate inference procedure for fully stochastic BNNs; (iii) full stochasticity may be unnecessary as deep kernel learning is relatively competitive; (iv) infinite-width BNNs are particularly promising, especially in high dimensions.

The Sliced-Wasserstein distance (SW) is a computationally efficient and theoretically grounded alternative to the Wasserstein distance. Yet, the literature on its statistical properties -- or, more accurately, its generalization properties -- with respect to the distribution of slices, beyond the uniform measure, is scarce. To bring new contributions to this line of research, we leverage the PAC-Bayesian theory and a central observation that SW may be interpreted as an average risk, the quantity PAC-Bayesian bounds have been designed to characterize. We provide three types of results: i) PAC-Bayesian generalization bounds that hold on what we refer as adaptive Sliced-Wasserstein distances, i.e. SW defined with respect to arbitrary distributions of slices (among which data-dependent distributions), ii) a principled procedure to learn the distribution of slices that yields maximally discriminative SW, by optimizing our theoretical bounds, and iii) empirical illustrations of our theoretical findings.

In the past two years, several points of view have been proposed to address the question of the generalization of the theory of free probability to random tensors with different invariances, and it is unclear at this point whether they lead to the same notions of tensorial free cumulants and freeness. One way to approach this problem, developed by Collins, Gurau and the second named author for local unitary invariant random tensors, relies on finite size quantities involving averages over the invariance group, and whose asymptotics naturally possess the properties expected for tensorial generalizations of free cumulants of arbitrary orders. At this point, this approach has only been carried out for certain distributions, and for a subset of the moments that define such theories, and a more systematic and exhaustive study is lacking. This is the program initiated in this paper: we link this approach to the one proposed by Nechita and Park; extend a number of their results as well as those of the aforementioned paper to arbitrary orders of fluctuations, thereby generalizing higher order free cumulants; push further the study of distributions with larger invariance groups; detail the link with the asymptotics of the free-energies of the tensor HCIZ and BGW integrals; and provide formulae for tensorial free cumulants of products of tensors. Another important question is that of the definition of concrete distributions whose tensorial free-cumulants take non-trivial values. We compute the tensorial free cumulants for Gaussian random tensors with non-trivial covariances, and show that they provide such examples.

A neural architecture with randomly initialized weights, in the infinite width limit, is equivalent to a Gaussian Random Field whose covariance function is the so-called Neural Network Gaussian Process kernel (NNGP). We prove that a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) defined by the NNGP contains only functions that can be approximated by the architecture. To achieve a certain approximation error the required number of neurons in each layer is defined by the RKHS norm of the target function. Moreover, the approximation can be constructed from a supervised dataset by a random multi-layer representation of an input vector, together with training of the last layer's weights. For a 2-layer NN and a domain equal to an n-1-dimensional sphere in {mathbb R}^n, we compare the number of neurons required by Barron's theorem and by the multi-layer features construction. We show that if eigenvalues of the integral operator of the NNGP decay slower than k^{-n-2{3}} where k is an order of an eigenvalue, then our theorem guarantees a more succinct neural network approximation than Barron's theorem. We also make some computational experiments to verify our theoretical findings. Our experiments show that realistic neural networks easily learn target functions even when both theorems do not give any guarantees.

This paper introduces a novel approach to financial risk analysis that does not rely on traditional price and market data, instead using market news to model assets as distributions over a metric space of risk factors. By representing asset returns as integrals over the scalar field of these risk factors, we derive the covariance structure between asset returns. Utilizing encoder-only language models to embed this news data, we explore the relationships between asset return distributions through the concept of Energy Distance, establishing connections between distributional differences and excess returns co-movements. This data-agnostic approach provides new insights into portfolio diversification, risk management, and the construction of hedging strategies. Our findings have significant implications for both theoretical finance and practical risk management, offering a more robust framework for modelling complex financial systems without depending on conventional market data.

Recent findings suggest that consecutive layers of neural networks with the ReLU activation function fold the input space during the learning process. While many works hint at this phenomenon, an approach to quantify the folding was only recently proposed by means of a space folding measure based on Hamming distance in the ReLU activation space. We generalize this measure to a wider class of activation functions through introduction of equivalence classes of input data, analyse its mathematical and computational properties and come up with an efficient sampling strategy for its implementation. Moreover, it has been observed that space folding values increase with network depth when the generalization error is low, but decrease when the error increases. This underpins that learned symmetries in the data manifold (e.g., invariance under reflection) become visible in terms of space folds, contributing to the network's generalization capacity. Inspired by these findings, we outline a novel regularization scheme that encourages the network to seek solutions characterized by higher folding values.

Deep learning has recently revealed the existence of scaling laws, demonstrating that model performance follows predictable trends based on dataset and model sizes. Inspired by these findings and fascinating phenomena emerging in the over-parameterized regime, we examine a parallel direction: do similar scaling laws govern predictive uncertainties in deep learning? In identifiable parametric models, such scaling laws can be derived in a straightforward manner by treating model parameters in a Bayesian way. In this case, for example, we obtain O(1/N) contraction rates for epistemic uncertainty with respect to the number of data N. However, in over-parameterized models, these guarantees do not hold, leading to largely unexplored behaviors. In this work, we empirically show the existence of scaling laws associated with various measures of predictive uncertainty with respect to dataset and model sizes. Through experiments on vision and language tasks, we observe such scaling laws for in- and out-of-distribution predictive uncertainty estimated through popular approximate Bayesian inference and ensemble methods. Besides the elegance of scaling laws and the practical utility of extrapolating uncertainties to larger data or models, this work provides strong evidence to dispel recurring skepticism against Bayesian approaches: "In many applications of deep learning we have so much data available: what do we need Bayes for?". Our findings show that "so much data" is typically not enough to make epistemic uncertainty negligible.

We study subsampling-based ridge ensembles in the proportional asymptotics regime, where the feature size grows proportionally with the sample size such that their ratio converges to a constant. By analyzing the squared prediction risk of ridge ensembles as a function of the explicit penalty lambda and the limiting subsample aspect ratio phi_s (the ratio of the feature size to the subsample size), we characterize contours in the (lambda, phi_s)-plane at any achievable risk. As a consequence, we prove that the risk of the optimal full ridgeless ensemble (fitted on all possible subsamples) matches that of the optimal ridge predictor. In addition, we prove strong uniform consistency of generalized cross-validation (GCV) over the subsample sizes for estimating the prediction risk of ridge ensembles. This allows for GCV-based tuning of full ridgeless ensembles without sample splitting and yields a predictor whose risk matches optimal ridge risk.

We study the problem of approximate sampling from non-log-concave distributions, e.g., Gaussian mixtures, which is often challenging even in low dimensions due to their multimodality. We focus on performing this task via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods derived from discretizations of the overdamped Langevin diffusions, which are commonly known as Langevin Monte Carlo algorithms. Furthermore, we are also interested in two nonsmooth cases for which a large class of proximal MCMC methods have been developed: (i) a nonsmooth prior is considered with a Gaussian mixture likelihood; (ii) a Laplacian mixture distribution. Such nonsmooth and non-log-concave sampling tasks arise from a wide range of applications to Bayesian inference and imaging inverse problems such as image deconvolution. We perform numerical simulations to compare the performance of most commonly used Langevin Monte Carlo algorithms.

Detecting out-of-distribution inputs for visual recognition models has become critical in safe deep learning. This paper proposes a novel hierarchical visual category modeling scheme to separate out-of-distribution data from in-distribution data through joint representation learning and statistical modeling. We learn a mixture of Gaussian models for each in-distribution category. There are many Gaussian mixture models to model different visual categories. With these Gaussian models, we design an in-distribution score function by aggregating multiple Mahalanobis-based metrics. We don't use any auxiliary outlier data as training samples, which may hurt the generalization ability of out-of-distribution detection algorithms. We split the ImageNet-1k dataset into ten folds randomly. We use one fold as the in-distribution dataset and the others as out-of-distribution datasets to evaluate the proposed method. We also conduct experiments on seven popular benchmarks, including CIFAR, iNaturalist, SUN, Places, Textures, ImageNet-O, and OpenImage-O. Extensive experiments indicate that the proposed method outperforms state-of-the-art algorithms clearly. Meanwhile, we find that our visual representation has a competitive performance when compared with features learned by classical methods. These results demonstrate that the proposed method hasn't weakened the discriminative ability of visual recognition models and keeps high efficiency in detecting out-of-distribution samples.

A great deal of effort has been devoted to reducing the risk of spurious scientific discoveries, from the use of sophisticated validation techniques, to deep statistical methods for controlling the false discovery rate in multiple hypothesis testing. However, there is a fundamental disconnect between the theoretical results and the practice of data analysis: the theory of statistical inference assumes a fixed collection of hypotheses to be tested, or learning algorithms to be applied, selected non-adaptively before the data are gathered, whereas in practice data is shared and reused with hypotheses and new analyses being generated on the basis of data exploration and the outcomes of previous analyses. In this work we initiate a principled study of how to guarantee the validity of statistical inference in adaptive data analysis. As an instance of this problem, we propose and investigate the question of estimating the expectations of m adaptively chosen functions on an unknown distribution given n random samples. We show that, surprisingly, there is a way to estimate an exponential in n number of expectations accurately even if the functions are chosen adaptively. This gives an exponential improvement over standard empirical estimators that are limited to a linear number of estimates. Our result follows from a general technique that counter-intuitively involves actively perturbing and coordinating the estimates, using techniques developed for privacy preservation. We give additional applications of this technique to our question.

Typical generative diffusion models rely on a Gaussian diffusion process for training the backward transformations, which can then be used to generate samples from Gaussian noise. However, real world data often takes place in discrete-state spaces, including many scientific applications. Here, we develop a theoretical formulation for arbitrary discrete-state Markov processes in the forward diffusion process using exact (as opposed to variational) analysis. We relate the theory to the existing continuous-state Gaussian diffusion as well as other approaches to discrete diffusion, and identify the corresponding reverse-time stochastic process and score function in the continuous-time setting, and the reverse-time mapping in the discrete-time setting. As an example of this framework, we introduce ``Blackout Diffusion'', which learns to produce samples from an empty image instead of from noise. Numerical experiments on the CIFAR-10, Binarized MNIST, and CelebA datasets confirm the feasibility of our approach. Generalizing from specific (Gaussian) forward processes to discrete-state processes without a variational approximation sheds light on how to interpret diffusion models, which we discuss.

We consider the problem of finding an input to a stochastic black box function such that the scalar output of the black box function is as close as possible to a target value in the sense of the expected squared error. While the optimization of stochastic black boxes is classic in (robust) Bayesian optimization, the current approaches based on Gaussian processes predominantly focus either on i) maximization/minimization rather than target value optimization or ii) on the expectation, but not the variance of the output, ignoring output variations due to stochasticity in uncontrollable environmental variables. In this work, we fill this gap and derive acquisition functions for common criteria such as the expected improvement, the probability of improvement, and the lower confidence bound, assuming that aleatoric effects are Gaussian with known variance. Our experiments illustrate that this setting is compatible with certain extensions of Gaussian processes, and show that the thus derived acquisition functions can outperform classical Bayesian optimization even if the latter assumptions are violated. An industrial use case in billet forging is presented.

Zipf's law appears in many application areas but does not have a closed form expression, which may make its use cumbersome. Since it coincides with the truncated version of the Zeta distribution, in this paper we propose three approximate closed form expressions for the truncated Zeta distribution, which may be employed for Zipf's law as well. The three approximations are based on the replacement of the sum occurring in Zipf's law with an integral, and are named respectively the integral approximation, the average integral approximation, and the trapezoidal approximation. While the first one is shown to be of little use, the trapezoidal approximation exhibits an error which is typically lower than 1\%, but is as low as 0.1\% for the range of values of the Zipf parameter below 1.

This paper provides a non-asymptotic analysis of linear stochastic approximation (LSA) algorithms with fixed stepsize. This family of methods arises in many machine learning tasks and is used to obtain approximate solutions of a linear system Atheta = b for which A and b can only be accessed through random estimates {({bf A}_n, {bf b}_n): n in N^*}. Our analysis is based on new results regarding moments and high probability bounds for products of matrices which are shown to be tight. We derive high probability bounds on the performance of LSA under weaker conditions on the sequence {({bf A}_n, {bf b}_n): n in N^*} than previous works. However, in contrast, we establish polynomial concentration bounds with order depending on the stepsize. We show that our conclusions cannot be improved without additional assumptions on the sequence of random matrices {{bf A}_n: n in N^*}, and in particular that no Gaussian or exponential high probability bounds can hold. Finally, we pay a particular attention to establishing bounds with sharp order with respect to the number of iterations and the stepsize and whose leading terms contain the covariance matrices appearing in the central limit theorems.

We investigate stochastic combinatorial multi-armed bandit with semi-bandit feedback (CMAB). In CMAB, the question of the existence of an efficient policy with an optimal asymptotic regret (up to a factor poly-logarithmic with the action size) is still open for many families of distributions, including mutually independent outcomes, and more generally the multivariate sub-Gaussian family. We propose to answer the above question for these two families by analyzing variants of the Combinatorial Thompson Sampling policy (CTS). For mutually independent outcomes in [0,1], we propose a tight analysis of CTS using Beta priors. We then look at the more general setting of multivariate sub-Gaussian outcomes and propose a tight analysis of CTS using Gaussian priors. This last result gives us an alternative to the Efficient Sampling for Combinatorial Bandit policy (ESCB), which, although optimal, is not computationally efficient.

Entropy and its various generalizations are important in many fields, including mathematical statistics, communication theory, physics and computer science, for characterizing the amount of information associated with a probability distribution. In this paper we propose goodness-of-fit statistics for the multivariate Student and multivariate Pearson type II distributions, based on the maximum entropy principle and a class of estimators for Renyi entropy based on nearest neighbour distances. We prove the L2-consistency of these statistics using results on the subadditivity of Euclidean functionals on nearest neighbour graphs, and investigate their rate of convergence and asymptotic distribution using Monte Carlo methods.

Low-bit quantization is challenging to maintain high performance with limited model capacity (e.g., 4-bit for both weights and activations). Naturally, the distribution of both weights and activations in deep neural network are Gaussian-like. Nevertheless, due to the limited bitwidth of low-bit model, uniform-like distributed weights and activations have been proved to be more friendly to quantization while preserving accuracy~Han2015Learning. Motivated by this, we propose Scale-Clip, a Distribution Reshaping technique that can reshape weights or activations into a uniform-like distribution in a dynamic manner. Furthermore, to increase the model capability for a low-bit model, a novel Group-based Quantization algorithm is proposed to split the filters into several groups. Different groups can learn different quantization parameters, which can be elegantly merged in to batch normalization layer without extra computational cost in the inference stage. Finally, we integrate Scale-Clip technique with Group-based Quantization algorithm and propose the Group-based Distribution Reshaping Quantization (GDQR) framework to further improve the quantization performance. Experiments on various networks (e.g. VGGNet and ResNet) and vision tasks (e.g. classification, detection and segmentation) demonstrate that our framework achieves good performance.

Large nonlinear recurrent neural networks with random couplings generate high-dimensional, potentially chaotic activity whose structure is of interest in neuroscience and other fields. A fundamental object encoding the collective structure of this activity is the N times N covariance matrix. Prior analytical work on the covariance matrix has been limited to low-dimensional summary statistics. Recent work proposed an ansatz in which, at large N, the covariance matrix for a typical quenched realization takes the same form as that of a linear network with the same couplings, driven by independent noise, with DMFT order parameters setting the transfer function and the noise spectrum. Here, we derive this ansatz using the two-site cavity method, providing two derivations with complementary perspectives. The first decomposes each unit's activity into a linear response to its local field and a nonlinear residual, and shows that cross-covariances between residuals at distinct sites are strongly suppressed, so the residuals act as independent noise driving a linear network. The second derives a self-consistent matrix equation for the covariance matrix. A naive Gaussian closure for the joint statistics of local fields at distinct sites misses cross terms that, in a linear network, would be generated by an external drive. The cavity method recovers these terms from non-Gaussian contributions, revealing an emergent external drive. Higher-order cross-site moments follow a Wick-like decomposition into products of pairwise covariances at leading order, reducing them to the linear-equivalent form. We verify the predictions in simulations. These results extend linear equivalence from feedforward high-dimensional nonlinear systems, where the activations are independent of the weights, to recurrent networks, where the activations are correlated with the couplings that generate them.

In this paper, we introduce a new class of score-based generative models (SGMs) designed to handle high-cardinality data distributions by leveraging concepts from mean-field theory. We present mean-field chaos diffusion models (MF-CDMs), which address the curse of dimensionality inherent in high-cardinality data by utilizing the propagation of chaos property of interacting particles. By treating high-cardinality data as a large stochastic system of interacting particles, we develop a novel score-matching method for infinite-dimensional chaotic particle systems and propose an approximation scheme that employs a subdivision strategy for efficient training. Our theoretical and empirical results demonstrate the scalability and effectiveness of MF-CDMs for managing large high-cardinality data structures, such as 3D point clouds.

We introduce a Path Shadowing Monte-Carlo method, which provides prediction of future paths, given any generative model. At any given date, it averages future quantities over generated price paths whose past history matches, or `shadows', the actual (observed) history. We test our approach using paths generated from a maximum entropy model of financial prices, based on a recently proposed multi-scale analogue of the standard skewness and kurtosis called `Scattering Spectra'. This model promotes diversity of generated paths while reproducing the main statistical properties of financial prices, including stylized facts on volatility roughness. Our method yields state-of-the-art predictions for future realized volatility and allows one to determine conditional option smiles for the S\&P500 that outperform both the current version of the Path-Dependent Volatility model and the option market itself.

Generating functions, which are widely used in combinatorics and probability theory, encode function values into the coefficients of a polynomial. In this paper, we explore their use as a tractable probabilistic model, and propose probabilistic generating circuits (PGCs) for their efficient representation. PGCs are strictly more expressive efficient than many existing tractable probabilistic models, including determinantal point processes (DPPs), probabilistic circuits (PCs) such as sum-product networks, and tractable graphical models. We contend that PGCs are not just a theoretical framework that unifies vastly different existing models, but also show great potential in modeling realistic data. We exhibit a simple class of PGCs that are not trivially subsumed by simple combinations of PCs and DPPs, and obtain competitive performance on a suite of density estimation benchmarks. We also highlight PGCs' connection to the theory of strongly Rayleigh distributions.

We study simplified bootstrap problems for probability distributions on the infinite line and the circle. We show that the rapid convergence of the bootstrap method for problems on the infinite line is related to the fact that the smallest eigenvalue of the positive matrices in the exact solution becomes exponentially small for large matrices, while the moments grow factorially. As a result, the positivity condition is very finely tuned. For problems on the circle we show instead that the entries of the positive matrix of Fourier modes of the distribution depend linearly on the initial data of the recursion, with factorially growing coefficients. By positivity, these matrix elements are bounded in absolute value by one, so the initial data must also be fine-tuned. Additionally, we find that we can largely bypass the semi-definite program (SDP) nature of the problem on a circle by recognizing that these Fourier modes must be asymptotically exponentially small. With a simple ansatz, which we call the shoestring bootstrap, we can efficiently identify an interior point of the set of allowed matrices with much higher precision than conventional SDP bounds permit. We apply this method to solving unitary matrix model integrals by numerically constructing the orthogonal polynomials associated with the circle distribution.

In the past couple of years, various approaches to representing and quantifying different types of predictive uncertainty in machine learning, notably in the setting of classification, have been proposed on the basis of second-order probability distributions, i.e., predictions in the form of distributions on probability distributions. A completely conclusive solution has not yet been found, however, as shown by recent criticisms of commonly used uncertainty measures associated with second-order distributions, identifying undesirable theoretical properties of these measures. In light of these criticisms, we propose a set of formal criteria that meaningful uncertainty measures for predictive uncertainty based on second-order distributions should obey. Moreover, we provide a general framework for developing uncertainty measures to account for these criteria, and offer an instantiation based on the Wasserstein distance, for which we prove that all criteria are satisfied.

In many real-world scenarios, obtaining fully observed samples is prohibitively expensive or even infeasible, while partial and noisy observations are comparatively easy to collect. In this work, we study distribution restoration with abundant noisy samples, assuming the corruption process is available as a black-box generator. We show that this task can be framed as a one-sided entropic optimal transport problem and solved via an EM-like algorithm. We further provide a test criterion to determine whether the true underlying distribution is recoverable under per-sample information loss, and show that in otherwise unrecoverable cases, a small number of clean samples can render the distribution largely recoverable. Building on these insights, we introduce SFBD-OMNI, a bridge model-based framework that maps corrupted sample distributions to the ground-truth distribution. Our method generalizes Stochastic Forward-Backward Deconvolution (SFBD; Lu et al., 2025) to handle arbitrary measurement models beyond Gaussian corruption. Experiments across benchmark datasets and diverse measurement settings demonstrate significant improvements in both qualitative and quantitative performance.

While 3D Gaussian Splatting has recently become popular for neural rendering, current methods rely on carefully engineered cloning and splitting strategies for placing Gaussians, which can lead to poor-quality renderings, and reliance on a good initialization. In this work, we rethink the set of 3D Gaussians as a random sample drawn from an underlying probability distribution describing the physical representation of the scene-in other words, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samples. Under this view, we show that the 3D Gaussian updates can be converted as Stochastic Gradient Langevin Dynamics (SGLD) updates by simply introducing noise. We then rewrite the densification and pruning strategies in 3D Gaussian Splatting as simply a deterministic state transition of MCMC samples, removing these heuristics from the framework. To do so, we revise the 'cloning' of Gaussians into a relocalization scheme that approximately preserves sample probability. To encourage efficient use of Gaussians, we introduce a regularizer that promotes the removal of unused Gaussians. On various standard evaluation scenes, we show that our method provides improved rendering quality, easy control over the number of Gaussians, and robustness to initialization.

Recently, 3D Gaussian splatting (3D-GS) has achieved great success in reconstructing and rendering real-world scenes. To transfer the high rendering quality to generation tasks, a series of research works attempt to generate 3D-Gaussian assets from text. However, the generated assets have not achieved the same quality as those in reconstruction tasks. We observe that Gaussians tend to grow without control as the generation process may cause indeterminacy. Aiming at highly enhancing the generation quality, we propose a novel framework named GaussianDreamerPro. The main idea is to bind Gaussians to reasonable geometry, which evolves over the whole generation process. Along different stages of our framework, both the geometry and appearance can be enriched progressively. The final output asset is constructed with 3D Gaussians bound to mesh, which shows significantly enhanced details and quality compared with previous methods. Notably, the generated asset can also be seamlessly integrated into downstream manipulation pipelines, e.g. animation, composition, and simulation etc., greatly promoting its potential in wide applications. Demos are available at https://taoranyi.com/gaussiandreamerpro/.